BlogDP World Dubai Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The final series has been a bit better now that it’s just three events and going into this week it’s a two horse race between Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose.  For Rose victories at the WGC-HSBC Champions and then the Turkish Airlines Open has tightened it up a bit, but it’s a shame when you see that in third place is Sergio Garcia and 4th is Jon Rahm.  Both of these and Justin Rose played mostly on the PGA Tour but have to say that at least all three of them did win in Europe.

European Tour chief Keith Pelley has made a lot of beautiful things that have showcased the European Tour, from the Super 6 tournament in Australian that in the finals had six-hole matches to change the landscape of the event.  He is also trying to combat slow play in golf and his little nighttime challenge matches have been fun.  He also is facing head on the new PGA Tour schedule with the PGA Championship moving to May by moving the BMW PGA Championship to September and moving more exciting tournaments to the fall, thus getting a break from the PGA Tour which is looking to shut down their main tour by the first week in September.  Pelley is also fighting hard to keep homegrown players on the European Tour as he doesn’t want to see a future star turn into the next Paul Casey, who will not support the European Tour.  The business of golf has changed drastically over the last couple of years, it’s harder to keep sponsors, and they are asking for a lot more.  It’s also essential in maintaining sponsors because new ones are much harder to find.  The Asian market in golf is not as strong as it was ten years ago, places like China are getting more and more away from golf.  With tensions in the middle east, it’s harder in making sure that markets like Dubai, Qatar and Abu Dhabi are always a part of the European Tour landscape and he has done it, in 2018 a tournament in Oman will be added to the schedule.  At the same time Pelley has to make sure that all of the events in South Africa stay strong, in 2018 there will be four events, one viewer than in 2017 as the Alfred Dunhill Championship is not being played due to course improvements to Leopard Creek.  Hopefully, it will return next year.

More importantly, Pelley has kept together the 20 events played in Europe.  It’s been a struggle to keep the tournament in Ireland strong, the same with those played in England and across Europe.  Pelley help hold five of the European events healthy with the Rolex Series, including the playoff events he has eight of these events with purses the same size as those on the PGA Tour, making the European Tour more critical.  Next year the same eight events will see the Rolex Series continue.  Last but not least is the health of the Ryder Cup.  The matches are still significant and a vital part of the financial health of the European Tour. They are still popular and necessary in the golf world, you look at the Presidents Cup, it just hasn’t reached the same level as the Ryder Cup so in the future you may see the PGA Tour trying to incorporate parts of the Presidents Cup into the Ryder Cup.  Of course, the European Tour and PGA of America will not allow this to happen, but you just don’t know what the future brings that could make a partnership necessary so that in one year you have matches that have teams from the United States, Europe and the rest of the world play together.

So as we end another year on the European Tour, we can see that it’s going to be even more critical to have a strong leader at the helm, and Pelley seems to fit the bill.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the DP World Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

In past DP World Championships, they have been dominated by five different players, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace and Henrik Stenson.  But with McIlroy and Stenson not playing this year things are a bit level as nobody is dominating this event. You may have Charl Schwartzel and Francesco Molinari with the most top-tens (four each), but none of them have won.  It’s still a bit shocking to see that only two players are in the field that has won this event, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Lee Westwood so for the first time in a couple of years, there is no clear-cut favorite.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Two essential elements come across in the previous eight winners.  First is driving distance, six of the eight winners were in the top-ten while two (Rory McIlroy 2015 and Alvaro Quiros in 2011) led while Rory McIlroy in 2012 was 2nd.  Hitting greens is also very important, 2015 winner McIlroy was T-3rd while the previous year’s winner Henrik Stenson was T-4th and led that category in 2013 just like Lee Westwood in 2009.  In 2011 Alvaro Quiros was T2nd, so you have to hit the ball good and straight from tee to green.  Last year Matthew Fitzpatrick was T-21st in greens hit but was T-3rd in putts.
• All of the par-5s are easy, last year Fitzpatrick was 12 under on them, best of anyone in tournament history.  In 2015 McIlroy was 9 under on them and the year before Stenson played them in 10 under. Also at 12 under was Alvaro Quiros in 2011 while the worst was Robert Karlsson in 2010 when he played them in 7 under
• Surprisingly all of the winners have played the par 4s well, last year Fitzpatrick was 4 under on them.  In 2015 McIlroy was 10 under while the best was Henrik Stenson at 14 under in 2013. Lee Westwood played them in 13 under in 2009 while the worst was Robert Karlsson at 7 under in 2010.
• You will have no probably with the weather as each day is sunny and in the mid-80s.  There is zero chance of any rain in the next week, and the wind could present a problem with it blowing 15 mph each day, so players won’t’ be able to attack the course as they have done in past years.