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BlogDP World Dubai Preview and Picks

DP World Championship Dubai

November 16th – 19th, 2017

Jumeirah Golf Estates

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,675

Purse: $8 million

with $1,391,216 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Matthew Fitzpatrick

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 34 of the top 100 and 15 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with two top-ten players in the field, #5 Jon Rahm and #6 Justin Rose.  The other top 100 players are #11 Sergio Garcia, #16 Alex Noren, #17 Tyrrell Hatton, #19 Tommy Fleetwood, #20 Rafael Cabrera Bello, #21 Francesco Molinari, #23 Patrick Reed, #29 Branden Grace, #31 Matthew Fitzpatrick, #33 Charl Schwartzel, #35 Thomas Pieters, #36 Ross Fisher, #37 Bernd Wiesberger, #54 Ian Poulter, #57 Peter Uihlein, #58 Li Haotong, #60 Lee Westwood, #62 Hideto Tanihara, #69 Martin Kaymer, #71 Alexander Levy, #73 Thorbjorn Olesen, #77 Paul Dunne, #78 Dylan Frittelli, #79 Joost Luiten, #80 Chris Wood, #84 Jordan L Smith, #85 Shane Lowry, #90 Kiradech Aphibarnrat, #95 Julian Suri, #97 David Horsey, #98 Nicolas Colsaerts and #100 Victor Dubuisson

Last year there were 19 top-50 players in the field

The field includes 62 players that are in the top-60 of the Race to Dubai money list.  Those not playing are #11 Rory McIlroy and #13 Henrik Stenson.

The field includes 2 of the past champions who have won 5 of the 7 events played: Matthew Fitzpatrick (2016) and Lee Westwood (2009).

The field includes 22 players that have won 27 of the 46 European Tour events this year: Graeme Storm (BMW South African Open), Tommy Fleetwood (Abu Dhabi Golf Championship & HNA Open de France), Jeunghun Wang (Commercial Bank Qatar Masters), Sergio Garcia (Omega Dubai Desert Classic, Masters & Andalucia Valderrama Masters), Fabrizio Zanotti (Maybank Open), Dean Burmester (Tshwane Open), Bernd Wiesberger (Shenzhen International), Alexander Levy (Volvo China Open), Alex Noren (BMW PGA Championship), Dylan Frittelli (Lyoness Open), Jon Rahm (Irish Open), Rafael Cabrera-Bello (Aberdeen Asset Scottish Open), Jordan L Smith (Porsche European Open), Adrian Otaegui (Saltire Energy Paul Lawrie Matchplay), Julian Suri (Made in Denmark), Haydn Porteous (Czech Masters), Matthew Fitzpatrick (Omega European Masters), Lucas Bjerregaard (Portugal Masters), Paul Dunne (British Masters), Tyrrell Hatton (Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and Italian Open), Justin Rose (HSBC Champions & Turkish Airlines Open), Branden Grace (Nedbank Golf Challenge)

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the https://www.golfstats.com/2017/11/12/dp-world-championship-dubai-performance-chart-2017-2/past performance of all the players in the DP World Championship field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at DP World Championship in the last five years or check out our and sortable 8-year glance at the DP World Championship.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

 

 

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the DP World Championship Dubai

Player Nedbank Golf Challenge Turkish Airlines Open WGC-HSBC Champions Andalucia Valderrama Masters The CJ Cup at Nine Bridges Italian Open Alfred Dunhill Links Championship British Masters Tour Championship Portugal Masters BMW Championship KLM Open
Justin Rose
(334 pts)
DNP Win
(132)
Win
(132)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T10
(20)
DNP T2
(50)
DNP
Tyrrell Hatton
(296.67 pts)
T19
(31)
T16
(34)
T11
(39)
DNP DNP Win
(88)
Win
(88)
T8
(16.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
(205.67 pts)
T42
(8)
T6
(60)
T24
(26)
DNP DNP T2
(66.67)
T15
(23.33)
T20
(10)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T9
(15)
Eddie Pepperell
(196 pts)
T34
(16)
T6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP T10
(26.67)
T7
(36.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T3
(30)
DNP T3
(30)
Matthew Fitzpatrick
(193.67 pts)
T8
(50)
T11
(39)
T9
(45)
DNP DNP T15
(23.33)
T15
(23.33)
T11
(13)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Branden Grace
(192.33 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP T15
(35)
DNP T15
(23.33)
DNP T47
(2)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Victor Dubuisson
(172.67 pts)
3
(90)
T35
(15)
DNP DNP DNP WD
(-3.33)
T3
(60)
WD
(-1.67)
DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP DNP
Joost Luiten
(169.33 pts)
T12
(38)
T16
(34)
DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP T32
(12)
T36
(9.33)
DNP DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Paul Dunne
(168.67 pts)
T29
(21)
T23
(27)
T38
(12)
DNP DNP T26
(16)
7
(36.67)
Win
(44)
DNP DNP DNP T14
(12)
Tommy Fleetwood
(153.67 pts)
T10
(40)
T23
(27)
T20
(30)
DNP DNP T6
(40)
T25
(16.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Ross Fisher
(152.33 pts)
T34
(16)
DNP T58
(0)
DNP DNP T2
(66.67)
T2
(66.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP T31
(6.33)
Shane Lowry
(148.67 pts)
T12
(38)
T8
(50)
DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T25
(16.67)
T7
(18.33)
DNP T29
(7)
DNP DNP
Nicolas Colsaerts
(146 pts)
T57
(0)
T2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP T15
(23.33)
T25
(16.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Scott Jamieson
(139.67 pts)
2
(100)
T66
(0)
DNP T6
(40)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
T31
(6.33)
DNP T20
(10)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
George Coetzee
(138 pts)
T37
(13)
T27
(23)
DNP DNP DNP T6
(40)
T47
(2)
T15
(11.67)
DNP 7
(18.33)
DNP T3
(30)
Thorbjorn Olesen
(137.67 pts)
T12
(38)
T5
(70)
T31
(19)
DNP DNP T32
(12)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP DNP
Sergio Garcia
(137 pts)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP T30
(13.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T10
(20)
DNP T12
(19)
DNP
Lee Westwood
(125 pts)
T6
(60)
T20
(30)
DNP DNP DNP T58
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
T15
(11.67)
DNP DNP DNP T3
(30)
Martin Kaymer
(118 pts)
5
(70)
T30
(20)
DNP T27
(15.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T36
(9.33)
T20
(10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Dylan Frittelli
(113.67 pts)
T42
(8)
T2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T36
(9.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP T31
(6.33)
Rafael Cabrera-Bello
(112.5 pts)
T42
(8)
DNP T5
(70)
DNP T11
(26)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T33
(8.5)
DNP
Alexander Levy
(106.67 pts)
T37
(13)
T30
(20)
T31
(19)
DNP DNP T26
(16)
T7
(36.67)
T44
(2)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Ian Poulter
(102.33 pts)
T19
(31)
T20
(30)
DNP DNP T15
(23.33)
DNP DNP T11
(13)
DNP DNP T40
(5)
DNP
Peter Uihlein
(101 pts)
WD
(-5)
T14
(36)
T5
(70)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Graeme Storm
(99.33 pts)
T10
(40)
77
(0)
T71
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T36
(9.33)
T4
(26.67)
DNP T3
(30)
DNP T62
(0)
Jon Rahm
(93.17 pts)
DNP DNP T36
(14)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T15
(23.33)
DNP DNP T7
(27.5)
DNP T5
(35)
DNP
Bernd Wiesberger
(93 pts)
T19
(31)
T48
(2)
T9
(45)
DNP DNP T45
(3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP T9
(15)
Li Haotong
(89.33 pts)
4
(80)
T66
(0)
T50
(1)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T62
(0)
DNP T25
(8.33)
DNP DNP
Richie Ramsay
(88.33 pts)
T19
(31)
T27
(23)
T44
(6)
DNP DNP T40
(6.67)
WD
(-3.33)
T8
(16.67)
DNP DNP DNP T25
(8.33)
Soren Kjeldsen
(86.33 pts)
T12
(38)
T23
(27)
DNP T18
(21.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Francesco Molinari
(86 pts)
T27
(23)
DNP T46
(4)
DNP DNP T6
(40)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(19)
DNP
Julian Suri
(78 pts)
T42
(8)
T8
(50)
DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T55
(0)
Haydn Porteous
(75 pts)
T12
(38)
T35
(15)
T38
(12)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T15
(23.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Richard Sterne
(71.33 pts)
T19
(31)
T54
(0)
T38
(12)
DNP DNP T32
(12)
T59
(0)
T31
(6.33)
DNP T20
(10)
DNP DNP
Paul Waring
(70.67 pts)
T19
(31)
T14
(36)
DNP T30
(13.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
T52
(0)
DNP T39
(3.67)
DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the DP World Championship Dubai

Player Nedbank Golf Challenge Turkish Airlines Open WGC-HSBC Champions Andalucia Valderrama Masters The CJ Cup at Nine Bridges Italian Open Alfred Dunhill Links Championship British Masters Tour Championship Portugal Masters BMW Championship KLM Open
Ryan Fox
(-10.67 pts)
T52
(0)
T48
(2)
T46
(4)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T60
(0)
Andrew Dodt
(-4.33 pts)
70
(0)
T42
(8)
75
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
T37
(4.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Scott Hend
(-2 pts)
T57
(0)
T42
(8)
T62
(0)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Alexander Bjork
(5.33 pts)
T52
(0)
T48
(2)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T40
(6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T20
(10)
Andy Sullivan
(10 pts)
65
(0)
T61
(0)
DNP T18
(21.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T44
(2)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Jordan L Smith
(12.33 pts)
WD
(-5)
T42
(8)
T58
(0)
DNP DNP T21
(19.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Dean Burmester
(17 pts)
T42
(8)
61
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T58
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T7
(18.33)
DNP T48
(0.67)
Hideto Tanihara
(23.33 pts)
T52
(0)
T70
(0)
T20
(30)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Adrian Otaegui
(25.67 pts)
T60
(0)
T73
(0)
DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP T45
(3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
T31
(6.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T48
(0.67)
Pablo Larrazabal
(28 pts)
T60
(0)
T42
(8)
DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
T26
(8)
DNP DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

The final series has been a bit better now that it’s just three events and going into this week it’s a two horse race between Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose.  For Rose victories at the WGC-HSBC Champions and then the Turkish Airlines Open has tightened it up a bit, but it’s a shame when you see that in third place is Sergio Garcia and 4th is Jon Rahm.  Both of these and Justin Rose played mostly on the PGA Tour but have to say that at least all three of them did win in Europe.

European Tour chief Keith Pelley has made a lot of beautiful things that have showcased the European Tour, from the Super 6 tournament in Australian that in the finals had six-hole matches to change the landscape of the event.  He is also trying to combat slow play in golf and his little nighttime challenge matches have been fun.  He also is facing head on the new PGA Tour schedule with the PGA Championship moving to May by moving the BMW PGA Championship to September and moving more exciting tournaments to the fall, thus getting a break from the PGA Tour which is looking to shut down their main tour by the first week in September.  Pelley is also fighting hard to keep homegrown players on the European Tour as he doesn’t want to see a future star turn into the next Paul Casey, who will not support the European Tour.  The business of golf has changed drastically over the last couple of years, it’s harder to keep sponsors, and they are asking for a lot more.  It’s also essential in maintaining sponsors because new ones are much harder to find.  The Asian market in golf is not as strong as it was ten years ago, places like China are getting more and more away from golf.  With tensions in the middle east, it’s harder in making sure that markets like Dubai, Qatar and Abu Dhabi are always a part of the European Tour landscape and he has done it, in 2018 a tournament in Oman will be added to the schedule.  At the same time Pelley has to make sure that all of the events in South Africa stay strong, in 2018 there will be four events, one viewer than in 2017 as the Alfred Dunhill Championship is not being played due to course improvements to Leopard Creek.  Hopefully, it will return next year.

More importantly, Pelley has kept together the 20 events played in Europe.  It’s been a struggle to keep the tournament in Ireland strong, the same with those played in England and across Europe.  Pelley help hold five of the European events healthy with the Rolex Series, including the playoff events he has eight of these events with purses the same size as those on the PGA Tour, making the European Tour more critical.  Next year the same eight events will see the Rolex Series continue.  Last but not least is the health of the Ryder Cup.  The matches are still significant and a vital part of the financial health of the European Tour. They are still popular and necessary in the golf world, you look at the Presidents Cup, it just hasn’t reached the same level as the Ryder Cup so in the future you may see the PGA Tour trying to incorporate parts of the Presidents Cup into the Ryder Cup.  Of course, the European Tour and PGA of America will not allow this to happen, but you just don’t know what the future brings that could make a partnership necessary so that in one year you have matches that have teams from the United States, Europe and the rest of the world play together.

So as we end another year on the European Tour, we can see that it’s going to be even more critical to have a strong leader at the helm, and Pelley seems to fit the bill.

 

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the DP World Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

In past DP World Championships, they have been dominated by five different players, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace and Henrik Stenson.  But with McIlroy and Stenson not playing this year things are a bit level as nobody is dominating this event. You may have Charl Schwartzel and Francesco Molinari with the most top-tens (four each), but none of them have won.  It’s still a bit shocking to see that only two players are in the field that has won this event, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Lee Westwood so for the first time in a couple of years, there is no clear-cut favorite.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Two essential elements come across in the previous eight winners.  First is driving distance, six of the eight winners were in the top-ten while two (Rory McIlroy 2015 and Alvaro Quiros in 2011) led while Rory McIlroy in 2012 was 2nd.  Hitting greens is also very important, 2015 winner McIlroy was T-3rd while the previous year’s winner Henrik Stenson was T-4th and led that category in 2013 just like Lee Westwood in 2009.  In 2011 Alvaro Quiros was T2nd, so you have to hit the ball good and straight from tee to green.  Last year Matthew Fitzpatrick was T-21st in greens hit but was T-3rd in putts.
  • All of the par-5s are easy, last year Fitzpatrick was 12 under on them, best of anyone in tournament history.  In 2015 McIlroy was 9 under on them and the year before Stenson played them in 10 under. Also at 12 under was Alvaro Quiros in 2011 while the worst was Robert Karlsson in 2010 when he played them in 7 under
  • Surprisingly all of the winners have played the par 4s well, last year Fitzpatrick was 4 under on them.  In 2015 McIlroy was 10 under while the best was Henrik Stenson at 14 under in 2013. Lee Westwood played them in 13 under in 2009 while the worst was Robert Karlsson at 7 under in 2010.
  • You will have no probably with the weather as each day is sunny and in the mid-80s.  There is zero chance of any rain in the next week, and the wind could present a problem with it blowing 15 mph each day, so players won’t’ be able to attack the course as they have done in past years.

 

 

 

Who to watch for at the DP World Championship Dubai

Best Bets:

Justin Rose

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
T22 T2 T10 2 T50

Comes into this week winning his last two events in Turkey and China. Also has two runner-up finishes, he is the best bet for this week.

Tyrrell Hatton

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
2 T13 T6

Runner-up last year, he has been consistent in the fall with two wins in Italy and Scotland.

Victor Dubuisson

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
T4 T13 T2 3 T36

Good record at Jumeirah and he almost won last week in South Africa. Jumeirah

Best of the rest:

Matthew Fitzpatrick

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
Win T4

Be a tall order to win back to back times but he is playing well with a T-8th last week, T-11th in Turkey and T-9th in China.

Charl Schwartzel

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
3 T4 T47 T3 5 T21 53

Has a great record on this course including a runner-up in 2014 and a pair of third-place finishes last year and in 2012.

Sergio Garcia

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
T19 T12 T9 T11 T21 T7

You would think that he would be one of the favorites, he’s not many because his record at Jumeirah is not that great and he hasn’t played in a month but that start was a win in Spain.

Francesco Molinari

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
T4 T4 T16 13 T34 T6 T6 T30

While Sergio hasn’t played well at Jumeirah, it’s not the case with Molinari who has been fourth the last two years playing the course in 26 under par.

Solid contenders

Jon Rahm

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
First time playing in this event

His game has cooled off considerably since finishing T-7th at the Tour Championship. Playing for the first time, you have to think that Rahm’s game will be perfect for Jumeirah.

Branden Grace

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
T27 3 T9 T52 6

Last week’s winner could be a surprise this week considering he was 3rd at Jumeirah in 2015 and 6th in 2012.

Tommy Fleetwood

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
T9 T53 T12 T37

He does lead the Race to Dubai and would like to have a good finish. He was T-9th last year, he was T-10th last week in South Africa so we should watch him this week.

Bernd Wiesberger

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
T4 T17 T16 T34 T42

Could he sneak in and upset the apple cart? Yes he can, was T-4th last year and has had a consistent fall.

Long shots that could come through:

Ian Poulter

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
T42 T21 2 T26 T22 2 T9

Watch him he is a very good long shot, first he wasn’t in the top-60 so got into this event thanks to both McIlroy and Stenson withdrawing. Have to remember he has two runner-up finishes in this event in 2013 and 2010.

Soren Kjeldsen

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
T4 T10 T26 T26 T30

Worth watching when you consider that he was T-4th last year and T-10th in 2015 at Jumeirah.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
T35 T22 T29

Has not played that great at Jumeirah but he has a T-6th finish in Turkey and T-2nd at the Italian Open.

Eddie Pepperell

2017 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05
58 T26

Has five top-tens in his last seven starts including a T-6th in Turkey. Unfortunately his record is not the greatest at Jumeirah but he did finish up with three under par rounds in 2014.

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