Kapalua Key Fantasy Stats

Sentry Tournament of Champions

January 4th – 7th, 2018

Plantation Course at Kapalua

Kapalua, Maui, HI

Par: 73 / Yardage: 7,452

Purse: $6.3 million

with $1,134,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Justin Thomas

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Plantation Course at Kapalua, based on data from last years Sentry Tournament of Champions, and using data from all the players in the field for with stats from a combination of 2016 & ’17.
One thing that is important to know, the scoring average of the field last year was 70.38, so with par being 73, that means the average score was two and three quarters under per round, making Kapalua the easiest of 50 courses to score on in 2017.
Now there are many reasons for this. First, the Plantation Course is a resort course and not geared to be super tough. Another reason for the course being easy is the fairways; there is no way that you can’t hit the fairways at Kapalua, a 747 can land in them. Last year the course ranked 47th (of 50 courses) in driving accuracy with a 73.49 total. On top of that, since the fairways are firm and many of them are downhill, it’s not surprising that for all the drives the average is 292.3 yards. So with that said many would say gosh this is a course for bombers, but it isn’t. Yes, long hitters have a significant advantage, Justin Thomas last year finished 8th on the PGA Tour in driving distance. But in other years, short hitters have won. Look at some of the champions the last few years, Jordan Spieth was the 51st longest hitter on tour in 2016. Even better yet Zach Johnson won in 2014, Steve Stricker in 2012, Jonathan Byrd in 2011 were three of the shortest hitters in PGA Tour history. Even guys like Geoff Ogilvy (who won twice) and Daniel Chopra were very average on tour in driving distance, so the myth that this course is for bombers is not right, except for one small fact. Being on a hill overlooking the Pacific Ocean and the Pailolo Channel the Plantation course tends to get hit by some high winds, and when that happens, especially if the winds are out of the north, it helps short hitters The same when it’s dry, it helps the short hitters. For this week winds are going to come out of the northeast, and they are predicted to be each of the four days over 20 mph, with some gusts up to 30 mph.

So this favors the shorter hitter. But the one undisputed fact that many don’t understand about the winners, in most cases the best putter is the victor. Here is a stat that will blow your mind, of the 19 Kapalua winners since 1999 the highest any of them have ranked in putts per round is 4th. Of the 19 champions, nine have led that stat while four were second and three were third. Makes sense, since the course is wide open and the greens the largest on the PGA Tour hitting fairways and greens are easy. But just because you hit a green doesn’t mean it’s going to help you to win. You got to get it close to the hole but more importantly be a great putter, avoid those nasty three putts and make lot’s of putts from six feet and in. Last year’s winner Justin Thomas and 2016 champion Jordan Spieth both made 59 of 60 putts from six feet and in. In 2014 when Zach Johnson won he made 63 of 65 putts from seven feet and in 2012 Steve Stricker made 58 of 61 putts from seven feet and in. Another key is lack of three putts, last year Thomas had just 2 three putts and was T-5th in that stat. Also, all of the winners are good in scrambling, last year Thomas was 12th in scrambling but the year before Jordan Spieth was 3rd, in 2015 winner Patrick Reed was 2nd the same for 2014 winner Zach Johnson. So be

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Kapalua:

*Proximity to Hole: In greens hit 80.73% where hit last year, making it the easiest course to hit greens on the PGA Tour. In proximity to the hole, players tended to have a tough time getting it close to the hole, last year they averaged 37 feet, 8 inch as only three courses saw approach shots go further away from the hole.

*Strokes gained Putting: The greens average 7,120 square feet at Kapalua, making them above average on the PGA Tour. So with shots ending up far from the hole, it puts a premium on putting, so players that gain strokes putting have an advantage. Overall putting stats place it the 2nd hardest to putt, as one putts are at a premium. Three putts aren’t that bad as the course ranks 7th in 3-putt avoidance. But we can’t stop saying the importance of putting well at Kapalua and this is the kiss of death for a lot of players, balky putting.

*Par Breakers: The Plantation Course has always been a push over for the best players in the world. The field killed the course in 2017 averaging 4.66 birdies per round and a total of 596 birdies were made from the field of 32 players, so it’s important to be the best in this Par Breakers which is based on who makes the most birdies and eagles.

*Scrambling: With big greens it’s near impossible to miss them, still if you do you have to get it up and down. Last year the course ranked 24th on tour in scrambling, but that was a bit misleading because for those that win, you better get it up and down. So it’s important to look and find those that do scramble well.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.