BlogDubai Desert Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This event has always been one of the richest on the European Tour ever since it was first played in 1989.  Dubai is known for its wealth, it’s skyline is something out of a futuristic science fiction movie, and you can buy just about anything known to humans, except for alcohol which is scarce because of religious beliefs.  Over the course of the last 29 years, this event has taken a bite on whatever west coast event is played on the PGA Tour, those that run Dubai would pay top dollar for the best players in the world.  But things have changed in the last four or five years, Abu Dhabi seems to have more money and is doing a better job of getting better fields.  Yes, Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, and Sergio Garcia are playing this week, but the fields aren’t like they were in 2007 when six top-15 players in the world attended. Another problem that this event has is the purse hasn’t changed much since 2007, so a lot of the top European players take a pass on playing.  On TV this tournament looks incredible with the skyline of Dubai as a backdrop.  In some ways, it’s just as lovely as the blue Pacific at the AT&T Pebble Beach.  This year they are going to finish each day under lights that have been installed on the 9th and 18 holes so that will air a bit of interest.

It’s a shame that this event, the longest-running European Tour event in the middle east, is having these problems.  Qatar has lost some of its appeals also, and with the UAE and Saudi Arabia severing ties with Qatar over the country’s alleged support of terrorism, that is the reason the event isn’t being played in between Abu Dhabi and Dubai.  There are also rumors that its contract with the European Tour and Commercial Bank ends after 2019 and may not be renewed.  So with receding oil prices and the economic sanctions by Gulf neighbors may spell the end of that event.

But for now, the Dubai Classic is still a top event on the European Tour.  In the last two years, the winner of Dubai went on to win the Masters so look for that being the big question to the winner on Sunday.

But for now, all we can say is that we can call all of these changes as evolution.

Course Information 

• Played at the Emirates Golf Club
• Doha, Qatar – Par:  72 / Yardage: 7,316
• Emirates Golf Club also hosts the Omega Dubai Desert Classic but also the Omega Dubai Ladies Masters in December.  It was the first all-grass championship golf course in the Middle East when it opened in 1988. The club is part of a 54 hole facility with the Faldo Course and the Creek course, which held this tournament in 1999 and 2000.
• The Emirates course was designed by Florida architect Karl Litten and lie amongst a plethora of dunes, on a site donated initially by Sheikh Mohammed Rashid Al Maktoum.  On his instructions the desert flora was maintained in its natural state. Within a year of opening, the newly christened Majlis hosted the inaugural Dubai Desert Classic in February 1989.  The sprinklers on the Majlis course keep the Bermuda grass growing, alongside the indigenous desert flora, giving a picturesque contrast. The lush fairways and large greens provide a formidable test of golf, guaranteeing a great finish on the 18th hole, a long dog-leg, which has seen as many inspirational finishes as watery disasters in its 19-year history.  Other course highlights include the par three 7th and the grueling par four 8th.
• There are 5 lakes dotted around the course with water coming into play on seven holes.  There are only 41 bunkers on the course but something a bit unique, five greens with no bunkers guarding them.  There isn’t that much rough, but if you hit it off the fairway, you could find yourself in desert scrub which is sometimes harder to hit out of than rough.  The course is always in great shape and in a way follow the same creed as Augusta National in which the staff works hard to maintain this course in a manner that many feel it’s always the best-manicured course on the European Tour.
• Just like last week in Abu Dhabi, the key to playing the course is to have windless conditions.  If by chance the area is hit by the Shamal winds it makes the course very tough, but this event has never suffered any weather problems.  In looking at the weather forecast, there is zero percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid-70s, but it’s going to be very windy on Sunday which will create a challenge for most of the players

DraftKings Tips

Looking for some good picks at Abu Dhabi

*Of the 132 in the field, 104 have played at least once at Dubai.

*Here are the players that have played in two or more Dubai’s and had the most under par totals since 2010:

• Stephen Gallacher is 87 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years
• Rory McIlroy is 77 under in 24 rounds playing 6 years
• Henrik Stenson is 73 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years
• Lee Westwood is 67 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello is 63 under par in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Chris Wood is 56 under in 28 rounds playing 7 years
• Bernd Wiesberger is 54 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Robert Rock is 54 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years
• Alvaro Quiros is 49 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Gregory Bourdy is 46 under in 32 rounds playing 8 years
• Thorbjorn Olesen is 44 under in 24 rounds playing 7 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Byeong Hun An is 29 under playing 2 years (-3.63)
• Rory McIlroy is 77 under playing 6 years (-3.50)
• Stephen Gallacher is 87 under playing 8 years (-3.21)
• Lee Westwood is 67 under playing 7 years (-2.90)
• Andy Sullivan is 40 under playing 5 years (-2.58)
• Henrik Stenson is 73 under playing 8 years (-2.50)
• George Coetzee is 34 under playing 4 years (-2.43)
• Sergio Garcia is 32 under playing 4 years (-2.43)
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello is 63 under playing 8 years (-2.25)
• Tyrrell Hatton is 31 under playing 4 years (-2.21)
• Bernd Wiesberger is 54 under playing 7 years (-2.08)
• Renato Paratore is 25 under playing 3 years (-2.08)
• Chris Wood is 56 under playing 7 years (-2)
• Haydn Porteous is 12 under playing 2 years (-2)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week looking at those making the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

*Here are the guys that are very costly this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,900
• Sergio Garcia – $11,400
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,600
• Henrik Stenson – $10,300
• Branden Grace – $9,900
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – $9,700
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,600
• Ross Fisher – $9,400
• Thomas Pieters – $9,100
• Bernd Wiesberger – $9,000
• Pat Perez – $8,800

So you have a lot of good choices.  You can’t lose between Rory, Sergio or Tommy, I would say that Rory is the best shot but again $11,900 is a lot of salary cap.  As for Henrik Stenson, he played well last week in Abu Dhabi, and he had a good record in this event with a runner-up last year. Production wise he is good, averaging 4.70 per round thanks to making 2 eagles and 139 birdies.  Now if you compare that with Rory, it’s a toss-up, so it’s up to your, Stenson saves you $1,600 in the salary cap.  As for Grace, he has played well of late and also has

You can’t lose between Rory, Sergio or Tommy, I would say that Rory is the best shot but again $11,900 is a lot of salary cap.  As for Henrik Stenson, he played well last week in Abu Dhabi, and he had a good record in this event with a runner-up last year. Production wise he is good, averaging 4.70 per round thanks to making 2 eagles and 139 birdies.  Now if you compare that with Rory, it’s a toss-up, so it’s up to your, Stenson saves you $1,600 in the salary cap.  As for Grace, he has played well of late and also has good production with a 4.10 average getting 41 birdies in just ten rounds.  But again is he worth the $9,900?  I say no.  Same with Matthew Fitzpatrick he was T-5th last year in Dubai and T-3rd in Abu Dhabi.  But again his $9,700 price is dear when you want to take either McIlroy, Garcia or Fleetwood. Of all the folks in the $9,000 range, they have good records, but the price is very dear.

So we have to find a couple of good picks in the $7,500 to $8,800 range.

I like Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $8,500.  He was runner-up in 2016, was T-11th last year and shows excellent production with a 4.21 average thanks to 2 eagles and 116 birdies.  Cabrera-Bello finished T-40th last week, so that is a bit of a concern, but he shot 67 in the last round.  Of the other players in the $8,000 range, the only one that I like is Fabrizio Zanotti.  The good news, he was T-9th last week and had 17 birdies, but the bad news is his record in Dubai, in 8 starts he only has made the cut twice, and both of them weren’t that great.  It’s probably best to pass on him.

So we need to find some gems in that $7,000 range.

One player with good production is George Coetzee at $7,800.  He has 3 eagles and 64 birdies in his 4 post-2010 stats as he was T-7th last year.  Now the bad news, he missed the cut in Abu Dhabi and is looking for the form he had in September and October.

I do have two players at $7,500 that could be good.  First is Kiradech Aphibarnrat, he was T-22nd last week and T-10th in Hong Kong.  His record in Dubai isn’t that great, but Aphibarnrat is stepping it up over the previous year.  I also like Scott Hend, his production in Dubai isn’t that great with a 3.13 average but he does make cuts, and he did finish T-8th in 2016 and didn’t play that bad last year with a T-42nd Dubai finish.  Darren Fichardt is also a good choice at $7,500; his production level is 3.56 in Dubai with an eagle and 56 birdies.  Last week in Abu Dhabi he was T-40th with 18 birdies.

Going lower at $7,400 is Chris Paisley who won two weeks ago in South Africa and was T-5th in Abu Dhabi.  In Dubai, he was T-15th last year and in 8 rounds does have 33 birdies, so he is a perfect horse at a reasonable price.  I also like Byeong-Hun An who was T-4th in 2016 and has made 44 birdies in just 8 rounds.  He finished T-40th last week in Abu Dhabi with 17 birdies so at $7,200 he is a bargain.

Now the best bargain for the week and the player you have to take is Alexander Levy.  He finished T7th in Abu Dhabi and in 4 starts at Dubai has made an eagle and 56 birdies.  His best finish was T-29th in 2015, but I see a lot of improvement this week.  Another good pick is Andrew Johnston, yes “Beef” seems to be getting his act together he was T-9th in Abu Dhabi and despite not have a perfect finish in Dubai has made 33 birdies in 8 rounds, so he is worth the $6,900 price tag.  Last but not least is Gregory Bourdy.  He has played in Dubai 11 times, making the cut 9 of them.  His best finish was a T-8th in 2010, so he does make cuts, his production average is high in Dubai at 3.84 with 2 eagles and 121 birdies.  He was T-61st in Abu Dhabi, but he is a good pick for the price.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

• What is the key stat that helps players win in Dubai?  Seems that hitting lot’s of greens is critical.  Of the last nine winners going back to 2009, all of them were in the top-19 with Sergio Garcia last year and Rafael Cabrera-Bello in 2012 both leading that stat.  Stephen Gallacher was 12th in both his wins in 2013 and 2014.  In 2015 Rory McIlroy hit 60 of 72 greens and ranked T-5th, so it’s essential that the winner hits lots of greens.  The following year Danny Willett was the worst of the pack, hitting 56 of 72 greens to rank T-19th.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• The Dubai Desert Classic has been known as a tournament that produces low scores as the winner has had an average score of 16 under par.  In 2015 Rory McIlroy was 22 under while in 2016 Danny Willett was 19 under the same score that last year’s champion Sergio Garcia had.  Again watch the winds, that has a lot to do with the scoring.
• You can’t call this course a long hitters paradise.  Yes, Alvaro Quiros won in 2011 averaging the best of those in the field and the same with Rory McIlroy in 2015.  Last year Garcia was T-2nd but the other winners have been in the middle in hitting it long.  Also hitting fairways is not very important and only two winners in the last eight years have been in the top-25 of this stat.  In 2015 Rory hit only 25 fairways and ranked T-65th while in 2016 champion Danny Willett ranked 10th in driving distance and he hit 31 fairways which ranked T-38th.  Last year Sergio Garcia had the best driving week of any champion hitting 39 fairways ranking T-2nd and driving it an average of 305 yards which ranked 3rd.
• Mastering the par 5s is the key, 2015 winner Rory McIlroy may have only been 10 under while in 2009 McIlroy played them in 12 under.  In 2016 Danny Willett was 12 under on the par 5s while last year Sergio was 9 under.
• The only way that a winner goes over par in any single round is because of the wind.  Henrik Stenson in 2007 was the last player to shot all four rounds in the 60s until Sergio did it last year.   Only 3 champions (Alvaro Quiros 73, 1st rd in 2011, Tiger Woods 73, 3rd rd in 2008 and Jose Coceres 73, 4th round in 2000) have had a single round over par, and that was on a day of high winds.