Club de Golf Chapultepec Key Fantasy Stats

WGC-Mexico Championship

March 1st – 4th, 2018

Club de Golf Chapultepec

Mexico City, Mexico

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,330

Purse: $10 million

with $1,660,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Dustin Johnson

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Club de Golf Chapultepec, based on data from last years WGC-Mexico Championship, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2018. What we do is take there rank for each stat and then add up the four catagories.
First thing to understand, last year was the first time that the Club de Golf Chapultepec was used. The course is 10 miles from downtown Mexico City and is one of the countries most popular course. The scoring average of the field last year was 71.05 so the course played around it’s par of 71 which made it the 22nd hardest course on the PGA Tour. The big question is if the course was a winner of the players, most seemed to enjoy it but Jason Day, Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson decided not to play it. We can understand why McIlroy didn’t play, he got food poisoning so it’s understandable on him not returning. The biggest thing about the course is it’s elevation, it’s just over 7,600 feet above sea level making it the highest course ever played on the PGA Tour. Last year the course was lush and the ball had little roll to it, one of the reasons that ten other courses on the PGA Tour had longer driving distance average than the 297.4 recorded.
Many thought that the course would be a bombers delight and when you see that Dustin Johnson won, that is the first thought. Yes Johnson, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy finished in the top-ten and they are long hitters. But some short hitters like Ross Fisher, Thomas Pieters, Brandt Snedeker and Tyrrell Hatton finished in the top-ten, so yes hitting it long has an advantage but is not important. One thing that is important is the fact that most players hit a lot of fairways and greens which makes you tend to think the course is not that hard. But one stat that showed why scores were low, in rough proximity the course was the 12th hardest meaning that they were able to hit it off the fairway but still hit the greens. The key to this stat was the fact that from 50 to 75 yards in the course ranked the easiest, from 75 to 100 yards and 100 to 125 yards it both ranked 5th. So accuracy is not that important.

In looking at the stats for Club de Golf Chapultepec last year the first stat that strikes me is strokes gained Tee-to-Green as that stat was led by winner Dustin Johnson and five of those in the top-ten in this stat were in the top-ten of the tournament. So if you hit it long off the tee, straight and hit lot’s of greens like Dustin did, you will accomplish a lot so that is why this is our first stat. Now there is no stat in comparing how a player will do well on two different courses, but Club de Golf Chapultepec has a lot of the same characteristics of Riviera Country Club. Both courses have kikuyu fairways and Poa Annua greens On top of that both courses have lot’s of stately eucalyptus trees so in looking for a winner think of players that also does well at Riviera. We talk about how important it is putting on Poa Annua greens but frankly Dustin Johnson was Jeckel and Hyde on the greens. On putts from ten feet and in, only one person missed more putts than Johnson. It’s hard to believe that Dustin won making only 61 putts out of 77, most of those misses coming from four and five feet, probably due to bumpy conditions. But on the other end of the spectrum, Johnson made four putts our of 7 in the 15 to 20 foot range and two out of 13 over 25 feet. One thing that Johnson did well was having 36 one-putts, which ranked T-5th. So even though Johnson was 21st in Strokes Gained Putting, we are choosing this as our 2nd most important stat.
Now are 3rd important stat is playing the par 5s the best. There are just three par 5s, one at 575, followed by one at 622 and then 625 yards and guess what Dustin Johnson played them the best at 10 under, making ten birdies and two pars. Overall the course played to a 4.71 average on par 5 average, ranking T-20th for the year.
For our last stat we have to go with ParBreakers, not because a lot of eagles and birdies were made on the course but the fact that Dustin Johnson was 2nd for 2017 in that stat and that six of the players in the top-ten in ParBreakers last year were also in the top-ten at the WGC-Mexico.

In looking at the long range forecast, weather will not play a factor as there will not be any rain, each day will be in the high 70s and each day will be under 8 mph in wind.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT CLUB DE GOLF CHAPULTEPEC:

*Strokes gained tee-to-Greens: Important because it shows how important it is in playing Club de Golf Chapultepec. The stat is a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy and greens hit.

*Strokes gained Putting: The greens average 6,200 square feet, making them average on the PGA Tour. So it’s important to see who putts the best and picks up shots on the green. With bumpy Poa Annua greens it could spell the kiss of death if you don’t putt them well.

*Par 5 scoring average: All of the par 5s have length and even at high elevation two of the three are close to impossible to get home in two. So the ability of making birdies and eagles on them are important this week.

*Par Breakers: The course not that demanding like last week’s venue PGA National. So with Club de Golf Chapultepec ranked 28th in this stat in 2017 it’s important for players to make lot’s of eagles and birdies.

38 of the 65 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.