DraftKings Tips for WGC-Mexico

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:

WGC-Mexico Championship

March 1st – 4th, 2018

Club de Golf Chapultepec

Mexico City, Mexico

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,330

Purse: $10 million

with $1,700,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Dustin Johnson

DraftKings tips

This week’s field is just 65, and the only history this course has is last year’s event.  Check out the box score for those that played well

So we have no historical background, but before we start, it’s important to point something out for those playing DraftKings.  The game has been around for two years, and my golden rule was only to pick one team.  I felt strongly that if you choose other teams, you will be playing against yourself.  But this Philosophy is being replaced with having several different teams.  It’s becoming evident that those that have multiple teams are the ones that rake up.  I know a dozen different people that have between 20 and 50 different lineups each week and what that does is increase your odds of having that big $2,000 to $10,000 pick.  Overall they lose money most weeks, but overall they come out ahead because they get some big paydays.  It’s amazing how many people are entered in the maximum of 150 lineups in the $33 pool.  Yes, that’s a total of close to $5,000, but it seems that you have to spend some money to win some.

Another thing to focus on is scoring average and eagle/birdie percentage for the tournament and the year.  Past performance in an event is not as key as getting players that will make more eagles and birdies than the next.  Lastly, I can’t stress this more; you have to pick guys that will make the cut.  Just remember this, if a player makes six birdies a day for two days, it’s just as good to have a player that makes three birdies a day for four day, you do make points with the extra pars for playing the weekend.

One last thing that I have been successful with his the weekend contest.  The only thing that matters over the weekend is a player that makes a lot of birdies and eagles; the great thing is that all six of your players will produce points since there is no cut.  For this game, I go back to my one team philosophy and have been very successful.

So let’s look at this week’s field, which is a short field.  Remember this; everyone makes the cut.

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

  • Dustin Johnson – $11,900
  • Justin Thomas – $11,500
  • Jon Rahm – $10,600
  • Jordan Spieth – $10,500
  • Tommy Fleetwood – $10,000
  • Rickie Fowler- $9,800
  • Justin Rose – $9,700
  • Phil Mickelson – $9,300
  • Sergio Garcia – $9,100
  • Bubba Watson – $8,900
  • Alex Noren – $8,800

With a short field and over a dozen guys that will probably struggle this week, the chances of you getting two top-guys are slim.  I would love to pick both Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson.  With $23,400 of your $50,000 used, that means you only have enough to average $6,650 a player.  So with the pickings slim in the under $7,000 category, picking either Johnson and Thomas will be tough in getting five other great players.

Do I think Dustin will do good and possibly win? Yes.  But I thought the same thing with Johnson at Abu Dhabi, and he finished T-9th.  I was ok with him finishing T-2nd at Pebble, but he didn’t help me much with his T-16th finish.  Hey, that is better than Rickie Fowler who missed the cut last week at the Honda, sorry he will not be on any of my teams.  As for a pick between Johnson and Thomas, I will stick with Dustin even though I think that Thomas will have a top-ten.  Another that will have a top-ten is Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood, they are still expensive to take both of them, so if I have to pick one, it’s Rahm.  I am not big on Justin Rose or Sergio Garcia this week, but I like Phil Mickelson at $9,300 and Bubba Watson at $8,900.  Matter of fact that combo will be one of my teams.  Last but not least is Alex Noren, I like him but at $8,800 he is a bit of a gamble, and you have to decide on him.  Will he finish in the top-ten? Maybe.  But I don’t have enough faith to put him on one of my teams.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,700 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Lot’s of tough choices, first Patrick Cantlay at $8,700 is a tough choice, yes he played well at Riviera which should bode well this week, but it’s still a lot of money.  I say it’s a toss-up, but I will take him for one of my teams.  The same with Tyrrell Hatton, at $8,600 it’s a lot, but he played well last year in this event and played well at Riviera, so he is a good choice.  One disadvantage of both Cantlay and Hatton, they are a more consistent type of players and don’t offer much offensive, so that could present a problem in picking them.  Now Tony Finau and Paul Casey don’t have that problem, they both make a lot of birdies, but with Finau at $8,500 and Casey at $8,400 they present a choice.  Frankly, I will take Casey but not a big fan of Finau, even though he finished T-2nd at Riviera.  As for Thomas Pieters at $8,300 he did ok last year but hasn’t shown me much the last couple of weeks.  Another pass is for Dylan Frittelli at $8,200.  He has done well of late but is playing his first WGC event, so I don’t have much faith in him.  Xander Schauffele is a good choice at $7,800, along with Rafael Cabrera Bello at $7,700 and Matt Kuchar at $7,600

Are there any “Bargains” out there?

It’s really important to find two or three good players under $7,500.  My first choice is Kevin Kisner, at $7,500 he produces a lot of offensive ranked 14th in ParBreakers for the year.  Also at $7,500 is Brendan Steele who is 8th in par breakers.  Patrick Reed will look good at $7,500 in a lot of people’s mind, but he is playing terrible right now and would be a waste.  I also think that Pat Perez at $7,400 is an excellent choice, again a lot of offensive and Patton Kizzire at $7,400 is good.  One last “bargain” at $7,200 is Chris Paisley, he has played great over the last month in Europe and made a lot of birdies, yes it’s his first World Golf Championship, but the price is too good to pass him up.

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