BlogBMW PGA Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This is the most prestigious event on the European Tour.  It’s played on a classic old course Wentworth, about 20 miles west of London.  Over the years it’s had a tough time getting a top-notch field as some European Tour members took passes to play on the PGA Tour instead of its tours premiere events. This year it’s missing it’s biggest draw, Sergio Garcia who hasn’t played in this event since 2014.  Another person taking the week off is Henrik Stenson.  Along with Stenson Jon Rahm decided to play at Colonial instead of playing in England and Justin Rose is also at Colonial.  Rose wanted to be at Wentworth but because of a PGA Tour rule that states a player must enter an event which he hasn’t played in the previous four years, Since Rose is doing this late in the season, he was down to three choices.  One was the Wyndham the week before the FedEx Cup playoffs and he was worried about getting worn down with the Ryder Cup the week after the playoffs.  His second choice was the John Deere, which was the week before the British Open and Rose wanted to play that week at the Scottish Open.  So he chose his third choice the Colonial, meaning he would miss Wentworth for only the 2nd time in 8 years.

The good news, playing the BMW PGA in May has always been a problem.  Over the years it’s been the same week as the Memorial and many Europeans wanted to play that event.  The European Tour moved it up, but attendance has been spotty at best.  So with the new PGA Tour schedule in 2019, which ends the season on Labor Day, the first week of September the European Tour thought that by moving the BMW PGA to mid September it would not only allow marquee players to participate but also get some American’s to come over, even join the European Tour and play in the lucrative playoff events that end with the World DP, Dubai.  So hopefully this will be a win for everyone, the weather in London in September is nice and with this move, it will help players get ready for the Ryder Cup which will be played right after the BMW.

Have to say give the European Tour credit for trying things out of the box.  Moving this event is one of them just like the inaugural Belgian Knockout.  The event was very well received, what they did was play 36 holes and then cut the field to the top-64.  They then played an with an elimination event of three nine-hole head to head matches at stroke play.  After Saturday night the field was reduced to 8, with three series of matches with a final match in which Adrian Otaegul beat Benjamin Hebert.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $12,000
• Paul Casey – $10,800
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,700
• Alex Noren – $10,500
• Brendan Grace – $9,900
• Francesco Molinari – $9,600
• Ian Poulter – $9,300
• Shane Lowry – $9,100
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – $9,000
• Paul Dunne – $9,000

Have to say that I don’t care who a person is, even Tiger in his prime $12,000 is a lot and for that reason, I can’t recommend Rory McIlroy.  Not that he hasn’t won in the past, but he hasn’t shown us much and sorry just can’t see the investment.  Now Paul Casey at $10,800 and Tommy Fleetwood at $10,700 are also very high, but at least both have shown some good play and can win this.  Alex Noren is also high at $10,500, sorry everyone down to Paul Dunne is too much money.   Of those in the $9,000 and higher range, about the only one I can see taking is Brendan Grace at $9,900.  He has played well the last two starts at Wentworth and was T-3rd at the Byron Nelson.  Now a problem could be flying to Wentworth, he didn’t arrive in London until Tuesday morning.  But he is hot having shot 62 in the final round to finish 3rd on his 30th birthday.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Your chances in this range are a bit better, first up is Byeong Hun An at $8,800.  He is a past winner that does well at Wentworth and has had a consistent year, he is a good pick.  Tyrrell Hatton at $8,600 is a toss-up, plays great at Wentworth, but hasn’t played the greatest of late, I will probably take a past on him.  Alexander Levy at $8,300 is a good pick, yes he missed the cut at the Players but has been great before that and plays well at Wentworth.  Alexander Bjork at $8,000 is a good buy, he won in his last start in China and was T-14th in his only start last year at Wentworth.  Adrian Otaegui at $8,000 is also a winner of the Belgian Knockout and I would take a gamble on him this week. Kiradech Aphibarnrat at $7,900 is also a good buy, he was T-14th last year at Wentworth and has done well this year including a win in Australia in February.  Jorge Campillo at $7,800 is also a good buy, he has been hot with 3 top-five finishes in his last 4 starts.  Now my sentimental pick is Lee Westwood at $7,600, yes he isn’t going to win but he will make the cut, make a good amount of birdies and give you a 15th place finish. Remember his price is right.

Any bargains out there?

I like Eddie Pepperell at $7,500, he is fired up to play and won in Qatar and would like to content this week.Nicolas Colsaerts at $7,500 is also a good bargain, remember he was 3rd last year and 7th last week in Belgium.  Pablo Larrazabal at $7,400 is also a good buy, he has had a great season and been very consistent at Wentworth, again I like him.  Another great $7,400 buy is Hideto Tanihara, he has had a lot of great moments this year and worth the money, remember he finished T-3rd last year.  So you can see, there are better buys under $9,000 and in the $7,500 range.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the BMW PGA Championship.

Key stat for the winner:

• Wentworth is a classic shotmaker course, that is why those that hit lot’s of greens like Luke Donald have done well at Wentworth.  Having a short game is also important because for those that miss the greens, getting it up and down is tough as there are a lot of bumps and knolls around these greens.  But the key to playing well is to hit lots of greens like 2016 winner Chris Wood who was T-4th in greens hit.  Even better is what Byeong-Hun An did in 2015, he only missed 11 greens all week leading the field in greens hit.  To show how important it is to hit greens, going back to 2009 all of the champions but Rory McIlroy were in the top-ten of greens hit.  Last year Alex Noren was T-18th which isn’t bad.
• Since major work was done on Wentworth in 2011, the par 4s are really tough, some of the hardest on the European Tour with five of the 12 playing over 449 yards.  In the last five years, 98% of those that made the cut have played the par 4s in 5.8 over par so you can see how Luke Donald won in 2012 when he played the 4s in 3 under, Matteo Manassero was 1 over in his ’13 win, Rory McIlroy played the par 4s in 1 under in 2014, Byeong-Hun An was 3 under on the par 4s in 2015 and Chris Wood was 2 under on them in  reviver 6, last year’s winner Alex Noren was 3 under.
• On top of new greens that went in before last years event a lot of other things have been done to Wentworth.  29 bunkers were completely removed as ever bunker on the course was redesigned and rebuilt.  So now it’s going to be a lot tougher if you hit it into one of them.  Hopefully, with these changes and the ones a couple of years ago, it will be more appealing to the players.
• Weather will be good for every day with temperatures between 77 and 80 degrees.  Winds will be light and it should be a great week for golf.  Thursday has a chance of thunderstorms and at the end on Sunday, but still it should be ok weather wise and wind won’t play a factor.