Colonial Key Fantasy Stats

Fort Worth Invitational

May 24th – 27th, 2018

Colonial C.C.

Fort Worth, TX

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,209

Purse: $7.1 million

with $1,278,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Kevin Kisner

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Colonial, based on data from last years Fort Worth Invitational, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2018. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at Colonial in 2017 was 71.15 (lot’s of wind every day) making it the 7th hardest course on Tour last year as the course played over a shot a round over par. In 2016 Colonial was 70.20 making it the 18th hardest course on the PGA Tour, a quarter of a shot over par and almost a half a shot harder that the course played in 2015 when it was 69.78 and the 21st hardest course to score on in 2015. So why the difference? Rain and wind, in 2015 they had flooding conditions the week before the tournament and the course was very wet. On top of that winds averaged between 10-15 mph. In 2016 the course didn’t have as much rain and winds blew up to 20 mph the first three days and calmed a bit for the final round. But last year winds blow each day at around 20 mph which made the course play very tough, a matter of fact the hardest it’s played since 2002 when the course played to a 71.21 average and ranked 6th on tour.
Colonial Country Club is a relic to a bygone era in which accuracy off the tee, precision shot-making to the greens is important. On top of that when the course is dry and runs, put in some wind and it can play really tough. But with no wind, wet conditions you will see a lot of birdies and eagles and that’s what has happened over the years. You can’t overpower this course, that’s why you won’t see long ball hitters like Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Bubba Watson, Tony Finau, Gary Woodland, Luke List and J.B. Holmes here.
Every great shotmaker from the last 71 years has won at Colonial including Hogan, Nicklaus, Snead, Boros, Littler, Wadkins, Price, Trevino, Casper, Watson, Scott and Mickelson to name a few. Most important stat to look at is Ball Striking, looking at the list for 2018 the odds are a player in the top-30 of that list
http://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.158.html
So who will win this week? Tell you this, it will be a guy with a lot of fitness and a sharp iron player. So why is this so important in a time when overpowering courses is the norm? There is no room to add yardage to Colonial. Since the course opened in 1946, only 169 yards have been added. With 12 of the 14 par 4s and 5s being doglegs, players have to throttle back and hit fairway woods and irons to keep it in play, especially when the course is dry with a lot of run. So hitting it long gives you no advantage because length means nothing when you have to lay up, so short drivers will be in the same part of the fairway as long hitters. That is the reason why players like Corey Pavin, Rory Sabbatini, Steve Stricker, David Toms and Zach Johnson have won this event. Look at Steve Stricker for example, he has passed on playing the Senior PGA Championship because he feels he can win at Colonial, that just shows what kind of winners Colonial produces.
In looking at our four categories, Fairway Accuracy is important, last year Colonial was the 9th hardest course to get into the fairway, while last years winner Kevin Kisner was T-1st in fairway hit. Our second stat is greens in regulation, last year Colonial ranked T-10th while Kisner rank 2nd in this stat hitting 53 of 72 greens. Our third stat is Par Breakers, last year Colonial ranked 6th overall why Kisner was T-9th in this stat. Our last stat is Strokes-Gained Putting as Kisner was 3rd in this stat. As for Colonial, they don’t keep track of that stat tournament wise, but I can tell you this, six of the last 16 winners have led in a total number of strokes so putting is very important.
Now another important element for this year is the weather, last year it was very windy, but for this week coming up will see temperatures in the low 90s but each day will have below 10 mph winds, so look for easy conditions and scoring going down.

*Fairway Accuracy: percentage of times a drive is in the fairway.

*Greens in regulation: Tells us which players hit the most greens during the week

*Par Breakers: The course allows a lot of birdies and eagles to be made, so par breakers are the percent of time scores are under par.

*Strokes Gained-Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

The 110 of the 121 players from this year’s field with stats from 2018:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.