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BlogFrench Open Preview and Picks

HNA Open de France

June 28th – July 1st, 2018

Le Golf National

Versailles, France

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,247

Purse: $7 million

with $1,166,660 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Tommy Fleetwood

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 25 of those in the top 100 and 11 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with the highest rank player in the field being #2 Justin Thomas, Here are the other top-50 players in the field: #5 Jon Rahm, #10 Tommy Fleetwood, #16 Alex Noren, #19 Sergio Garcia, #23 Tyrrell Hatton, #19 Francesco Molinari, #23 Tyrrell Hatton, #25 Rafael Cabrera-Bello, #28 Ian Poulter, #39 Matthew Fitzpatrick, #42 Haotong Li and #43 Ross Fisher.

Last year there were 29 top-100 players and 11 top-50 players so there a bit less.

The field includes 15 of the Top 25 on this year’s Race to Dubai money list.  Those players include #2 Tommy Fleetwood, #6 Thorbjorn Olesen,#7 Rafael Cabrera-Bello, #8 Alex Noren, #9 Tyrrell Hatton, #10 Shubhankar Sharma, #11 Matt Wallace, #13 Jon Rahm,  #14 Alexander Levy, #15 Alexander Bjork, #18 Jorge Campillo, #19 Matthew Fitzpatrick, #21 Adrian Otaegui, #23 Ian Poulter and #25 Ross Fisher.

The field includes 7 past champions: Tommy Fleetwood (2017), Thongchai Jaidee (2016), Graeme McDowell (2013 & ’14), Marcel Siem (2012), Martin Kaymer (2009), Pablo Larrazabal, (2008) and Jose Maria Olazabal (2001)

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the French Open field is our performance chart listed by the average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at French Open in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the French Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

 

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the HNA Open de France

Player BMW Inter. Travelers U.S. Open Shot Clock Masters Italian Open Memorial BMW PGA Belgian Knockout The Players Sicilian Open China Open Trophee Hassan II Open de Espana
Tommy Fleetwood
(275.5 pts)
T59
(0)
DNP 2
(200)
DNP T23
(18)
DNP T20
(30)
DNP T7
(27.5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Mikko Korhonen
(268 pts)
T2
(100)
DNP DNP Win
(132)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T15
(35)
DNP DNP T26
(8)
DNP T41
(3)
CUT
(-3.33)
Lucas Bjerregaard
(200 pts)
T5
(70)
DNP DNP DNP T71
(0)
DNP T3
(90)
DNP DNP 5
(23.33)
6
(20)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Alex Noren
(174.5 pts)
DNP DNP T25
(50)
DNP T23
(18)
DNP T3
(90)
DNP T17
(16.5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Thorbjorn Olesen
(170.33 pts)
T2
(100)
DNP CUT
(-20)
DNP Win
(88)
DNP T60
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T37
(4.33)
DNP T46
(1.33)
Matt Wallace
(165.33 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP CUT
(-20)
DNP T51
(0)
DNP T20
(30)
DNP DNP DNP T3
(30)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Andy Sullivan
(164.67 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP T35
(15)
DNP DNP T3
(30)
DNP T7
(18.33)
T21
(9.67)
Justin Walters
(155.67 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP DNP T3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP 22
(18.67)
DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Rafael Cabrera-Bello
(144.5 pts)
DNP DNP T36
(28)
DNP 4
(53.33)
DNP T8
(50)
DNP T17
(16.5)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Adrian Otaegui
(143.67 pts)
T56
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T36
(9.33)
DNP CUT
(-10)
Win
(88)
DNP DNP 2
(33.33)
T19
(10.33)
T12
(12.67)
Matthew Fitzpatrick
(141.33 pts)
DNP DNP T12
(76)
DNP T30
(13.33)
DNP T8
(50)
DNP T46
(2)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Ian Poulter
(132.83 pts)
DNP DNP T25
(50)
DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP T20
(30)
DNP T11
(19.5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Alexander Bjork
(111 pts)
T33
(17)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T27
(23)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(44)
T3
(30)
T39
(3.67)
Nicolas Colsaerts
(110.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T3
(90)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-10)
7
(36.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T28
(7.33)
Benjamin Hebert
(108.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T23
(18)
DNP T35
(15)
2
(66.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T13
(12.33)
DNP
Jorge Campillo
(108.33 pts)
T33
(17)
DNP DNP DNP T60
(0)
DNP CUT
(-10)
5
(46.67)
DNP DNP T3
(30)
T46
(1.33)
T5
(23.33)
Justin Thomas
(102.83 pts)
DNP T56
(0)
T25
(50)
DNP DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP DNP T11
(19.5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Martin Kaymer
(98.33 pts)
T2
(100)
DNP CUT
(-20)
DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Tyrrell Hatton
(98.33 pts)
DNP DNP T6
(120)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Haotong Li
(96.67 pts)
DNP DNP T16
(68)
DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP T43
(7)
DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP T32
(6)
DNP DNP
Nacho Elvira
(91.67 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP DNP DNP T42
(5.33)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP T14
(12)
T22
(9.33)
3
(30)
Soren Kjeldsen
(91 pts)
T7
(55)
DNP DNP T23
(27)
T42
(5.33)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T17
(22)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Mike Lorenzo-vera
(89.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP T43
(7)
8
(33.33)
DNP 2
(33.33)
DNP T62
(0)
T34
(5.33)
Russell Knox
(87 pts)
DNP T38
(12)
T12
(76)
DNP DNP T44
(4)
DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Lee Slattery
(85.33 pts)
T45
(5)
DNP DNP T19
(31)
3
(60)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T58
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
T32
(6)
CUT
(-3.33)
Aaron Rai
(85.33 pts)
T5
(70)
DNP DNP DNP T51
(0)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T46
(2.67)
DNP DNP T20
(10)
T52
(0)
T12
(12.67)
Connor Syme
(85 pts)
T45
(5)
DNP DNP 2
(100)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP 74
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
Lorenzo Gagli
(82.33 pts)
T63
(0)
DNP DNP T23
(27)
T14
(24)
DNP DNP T20
(20)
DNP T20
(10)
DNP T36
(4.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
Matthias Schwab
(82 pts)
T40
(10)
DNP DNP T12
(38)
T42
(5.33)
DNP DNP T28
(14.67)
DNP T20
(10)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T28
(7.33)
Andrea Pavan
(81.33 pts)
T56
(0)
DNP DNP T23
(27)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T52
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T9
(15)
T11
(13)
T3
(30)
T21
(9.67)
Ryan Fox
(72 pts)
DNP DNP T41
(18)
DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP T43
(7)
T65
(0)
DNP DNP T37
(4.33)
12
(12.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
David Lipsky
(71.33 pts)
T18
(32)
DNP DNP DNP T65
(0)
DNP T27
(23)
T23
(18)
DNP DNP T45
(1.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T67
(0)
Lee Westwood
(69.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
DNP T27
(23)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Raphael Jacquelin
(66.33 pts)
T66
(0)
DNP DNP T3
(90)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP T41
(3)
CUT
(-3.33)
Maximilian Kieffer
(66.33 pts)
T12
(38)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP 42
(8)
T28
(14.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T41
(3)
T12
(12.67)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the HNA Open de France

Player BMW Inter. Travelers U.S. Open Shot Clock Masters Italian Open Memorial BMW PGA Belgian Knockout The Players Sicilian Open China Open Trophee Hassan II Open de Espana
Carlos Pigem
(-46.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Zander Lombard
(-44.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Clement Sordet
(-38.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T45
(1.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Chris Hanson
(-36 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T27
(7.67)
T41
(3)
CUT
(-3.33)
Daniel Im
(-36 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T65
(0)
T78
(0)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T48
(0.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Chase Koepka
(-34.67 pts)
T63
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
S.S.P. Chawrasia
(-33.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T41
(3)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Sam Brazel
(-33.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Ricardo Gouveia
(-31.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T45
(1.67)
T59
(0)
T52
(0)
Daniel Brooks
(-27.67 pts)
WD
(-5)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
73
(0)
DNP 67
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T48
(0.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T66
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Hard to believe that we are less than 100 days away from the Ryder Cup which will be played on the same course that is holding this week’s French Open, Le Golf National.  This week’s tournament is the third of the Rolex Series which allows anyone in the top-50 of the world rankings an invite to play.  Even if you live in America and not a member of the European Tour if you’re in the top-50 of the world rankings you can play.  It’s a perfect way to get a glimpse at this course under tournament conditions. Guess who is taking advantage of this, Justin Thomas.  Have to say pretty smart on his part, and it will be interesting to see how he does.

But what is strange is those European members that are taking the week off.  Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Paul Casey and Henrik Stenson took a pass.  Also very surprised to Francesco Molinari playing in America in a tournament that isn’t that important, guess he is looking for FedEx Cup points   We realize in the next three weeks the Irish Open, Scottish Open, and British Open will be played, but it’s hard to believe that so many marquee names won’t play this event.

Still, the good news that the field is not bad, gosh they got Sergio Garcia, Jon Rahm, Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Ian Poulter making the trip to Paris.  The European Tour is loaded with young stars, and it’s interesting to note that those thick in the race to make the team are in Paris, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Thorbjorn Olesen, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Ross Fisher, Alex Noren, Matt Wallace and Paul Dunne. So it will be a good week to show European Ryder Cup captain Thomas Bjorn that hey, I can play great at Le Golf National and should be a part of the team next year.  A lot could happen, but an excellent performance this week could pay big time next year.  Some more outside of the standings looking to make that statement this week will be Lucas Bjerregaard, Alexander Levy, Shane Lowry, Alexander Bjork, Eddie Pepperell and even past stars like Martin Kaymer and Lee Westwood.

Course information:
  • Le Golf National
  • Versailles, France
  • 7,247 yards     Par 36-35–71
  • Le Golf National’s Albatros course will host the tournament for the 25th time, though having undergone extensive remodeling since last year’s event in preparation for hosting the 2018 Ryder Cup. Designed by Hubert Chesnau and opened in 1990, it measures 7,249 yards. Eduardo Romero (2005) established a new course record, which was matched by Kaymer on his way to victory in 2009, of 62 (-9).
  • The course, is on the outskirts of Paris on the land surrounding the Palace of Versailles, once the home of Louis XIV. It is a public, inland-links/target-style course that is regularly ranked among the top five in Continental Europe.  The course is dotted with links-style bunkers guarding vast fairways. But there are also water hazards that are commonplace on American-style courses. The players love it, and it will be a perfect risk-reward venue for Ryder Cup match-play drama.
  • The course has undergone some significant changes in the last couple of years, in preparation for the Ryder Cup which is less than 100 days away, so for a lot of players they will have to learn new ways of playing the course.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

 

  • Justin Thomas – $11,600
  • Jon Rahm – $11,300
  • Tommy Fleetwood $11,100
  • Rafael Cabrera-Bello $10,600
  • Alex Noren – $10,400
  • Thorbjorn Olesen – $9,600
  • Ian Poulter – $9,400
  • Andy Sullivan – $9,200
  • Tyrrell Hatton – $9,100
  • Sergio Garcia – $9,000
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick – $8,900

If you read our DraftKings tips for Quicken Loans, I said that there weren’t many of the expensive players to realistically chose.  But this week, of the 11 guys above, one of them will be the champion.  Of the top-11 I don’t like Andy Sullivan at $9,200 and Sergio Garcia at $9,000 because he has played terribly for months now.  But Justin Thomas at $11,600 is a high price, but you know he will be in the running on Sunday.  Jon Rahm at $11,300 I can go in either direction, yes he hasn’t played well of late but was T-10th last year in this event.  Tommy Fleetwood at $11,100 is probably going to be the top choice, not only did he win last year but has played great over the previous year.  Yes, it took 4 missed cuts before Fleetwood was able to play the weekend, but he did it good in his win.  He will be my tough choice. Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $10,600 isn’t my top choice.  But in his last two starts in this event was 4th in 2016 and 5th in 2015.  I like Alex Noren at $10,400, he has had a solid year and was T-10th last year and 8th in 2016 in this event.  Another strong candidate to win this is Thorbjorn Olesen at $9,600.  He may have missed the cut at the U.S. Open, but won the Italian Open and was T-2nd last week in Germany.  He also was T-3rd last year in this event; he is someone to think about.  I like the spunk of Ian Poulter; he has done everything to get the attention of Ryder Cup captain Thomas Bjorn and even though his price at $9,400 he could still win this week.  I have said I don’t like Andy Sullivan, I also don’t like Tyrrell Hatton at $9,100.  In doing some research, he hasn’t played well in this event and other than his T-6th at the U.S. Open, missed the cut in four of his previous five starts.  Last but not least Matthew Fitzpatrick is a good buy at $8,900.  He hasn’t played great in this event but has had a good year, and his price is right.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Thomas Pieters at $8,800 is a good buy, he was T-13th in this event last year and has had a good year. One of the hottest players on the European Tour the last eight weeks is Lucas Bjerregaard, and at $8,500 he is a good buy.  The same with Lee Westwood at $8,600, he has played great at Le Golf National and knows the course better than anyone else.  Martin Kaymer at $8,700 has also played well at Le Golf National including a win in 2009, so I would put him on my list.  Matt Wallace at $8,400 is also a good buy; he won last week in Germany.  Ross Fisher at $8,300 is also a good buy, he makes a lot of birdies and always makes cuts.  Mikko Korhonen is a player that not many people know of and he is $8,000 and a good buy because he was 2nd last week and won the Shot Clock Masters three weeks ago.  Alexander Bjork at $7,700 is also a good buy; he was 3rd last year in this event.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the French Open

First off I like Mike Lorenzo-vera at $7,500, he has been very consistent this year.  Thongchai Jaidee at $7,400 has been inconsistent of late, but he has an excellent record at Le Golf National including a win in 2016.  Alexander Levy at $7,400 is another good buy, he won’t win but will make the cut and make a lot of birdies for you.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the French Open:

Key stat for the winner:

The Albatross course was built on flat farmland and manages to combine a links feel with American style target golf. The course has wide undulating fairways, with links style bunkering, water hazards and with artificially created sand dunes it offers a severe test of golf.  At the same time, long hitters have an advantage, and it’s a course that can be overpowered.  But in looking at the stats of the past seven winners have one trait, and that is putting.  Those that putt well have won which shows those good putters will have a good week, last year winner Tommy Fleetwood hit 61 of 72 greens to lead that stat.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

The average Driving Accuracy ranking for the last 14 winners is 21.2, so accuracy is more critical than power off the tee, but it’s not been the be all and end all stat either.  Last year winner Tommy Fleetwood ranked T-3rd, 2016 winner Thongchai Jaidee ranked T-22nd in fairways hit so you can see off the tee accuracy is essential. Length is not an issue, so that opens things up quite a bit. Look for the winner to be someone who doesn’t like to muscle up with the driver, and settle for using a long iron for control. Look at some of the past winners of the event they haven’t overpower the course so looking for accuracy over length.

Water hazards come into play on 8 holes, and the wind is often a factor on this relatively flat course.

Weather will not be an issue this week, but it will be very warm all week with a lot of humidity.  As for wind, Thursday and Friday will be around 13 mph but the weekend will be calm.  So conditions will be right for some low scores.

 

 

Who to watch for at the HNA Open de France

Best Bets:

Tommy Fleetwood

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
Win CUT CUT CUT CUT

The best Europe has to offer, he has played so well this year and looking to hold onto his French Open title.

Justin Thomas

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
First time playing in this event

Playing for the first time, he is the only American that will be on the Ryder Cup team that made the trip over. Look for him to be impressive in this start.

Thorbjorn Olesen

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T3 WD CUT CUT CUT T2

Has played great other than the U.S. Open in the last two months.

Best of the rest:

Tyrrell Hatton

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
CUT T33 T12 CUT

Played well at Shinnecock.

Jon Rahm

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T10

He could be hit or miss depends on which Jon Rahm shows up. He did play well last year so I feel he will have a great week.

Lucas Bjerregaard

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
CUT T45 CUT CUT

Another player that has done well of late.

Alex Noren

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T10 8 CUT T15 T37 78 CUT CUT CUT

He has become the type of player that can win in any event he plays, look for him to have a great week.

Solid contenders

Rafael Cabrera-Bello

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
4 5 T35 T29 T57 CUT T69 CUT CUT

He is sneaky good, he could be in the running on the weekend so don’t be surprised.

Ian Poulter

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T45 T25 T4 T18 3 T30 9 T3

This guy is trying so hard to make the Ryder Cup team, he will be in the running over the weekend.

Ross Fisher

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T7 T22 T26 T34 CUT T64 CUT T48

He is a very consistent player and I expect him to have a good week.

Martin Kaymer

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T57 T5 4 T12 T13 70 4 T6 Win CUT T7

Still a good player, he is scratching the surface and may win before the year is out, who knows could be this week.

Lee Westwood

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T10 T11 CUT T40 T18 2 T5 T33 T29

Plays well in this event and would like to send a message to Ryder Cup captain Thomas Bjorn.

Long shots that could come through:

Mikko Korhonen

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T38 CUT T33 T26

Hottest player in Europe with a win and runner-up finish in the last month.

Matt Wallace

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
CUT

Has had a great year and look for it to continue this week.

Paul Dunne

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T13 CUT

Another of those that have been good in 2018 and could contend this week.

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