BlogQuicken Loans Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

How about Bubba Watson winning for the third time this year.  Gosh to think a year ago we feared he might never win again and now he has three wins for the year.  So what did it take for him to recover?  First, he wasn’t healthy last year, he lost 25 pounds, and that made him weaker.  He also switches balls, and that was a disaster, but most of all he lost his confidence.  He got it back at the start of the year and is now riding on all cylinders.  Still, there is something that everyone should realize, Watson seems to have a lock on courses like Riviera, Augusta National, and TPC River Highlands.  Between those three, along with the WGC events in Mexico he has done exceptionally even with 12 victories on the PGA Tour it doesn’t mean he has locked up Hall-of-Fame honors.  Since 2012 Watson has won 9 times, six of them are at the Travelers, Genesis, and Masters.  Watson’s career earnings are $41.6 million with $12.6 million or 30% of his total earnings coming at Riviera, Augusta National, and TPC River Highlands.  Now if you throw in the WGC-Mexico, WGC-Dell Match Play and the WGC-HSBC championship his earnings in those six events is $21.9 million or 53% of his total earnings.  So you can see, Bubba isn’t what you would consider a player that could win every week.  Matter of fact in his career over the next two months of tournaments from Greenbrier, John Deere, British Open, RBC Canadian, WGC-Bridgestone and the PGA Championship Watson only has two top-ten finishes. In these six events, he has just won $4 million only 9% of his total earnings.  Yes, Bubba will play in the Ryder Cup and bring a lot of excitement, drama, and Enthusiasm to the matches, but you can see that Bubba is not a very consistent player.  This is probably why he may not be Hall-of-Fame material in the coming years and frankly, a tough person to chose in fantasy golf, that is in events outside the Genius, Masters, and Travelers.

So what about Paul Casey?

Talk about a guy that can’t be trusted with the lead.  To think that in his career on both the PGA and European Tours Casey has played in 428.  He has entered the final round 41 times within 5 of the lead or with the lead but only has won 14 times in stroke play  Casey did it again, he went into Sunday with a 4 shot lead and wasn’t able to hold on to it.  Now to be fair, he has been in the third round lead/co-lead 18 times and won 8 times, not a bad record.  But we have seen him not hold on to leads and have a terrible time of it.  Still, if you are a fantasy golf player and participate in a final round game do you pick Casey, even if he is leading.  Just look at his final rounds the last three times he has had a 54 hole lead.  At the Travelers, he shot 72 which doesn’t cut the mustard when you realize that the final round scoring average for the field on Sunday was 68.865.  Last year he was leading the Tour Championship going into the final round and shot 73 to finish 5th.  And at the 2016 Deutsche Bank Championship, he finished with another 73 to finish 2nd.  Casey is an outstanding player, but he doesn’t seem to be a guy that you can count on.  Yes, he won the Valspar Championship in March, but in that one, he posted a final round 65 and waited about 45 minutes while the other players on the course weren’t able to match his score giving him a win.  Here is a bit of a scary stat, in 15 starts this year he has played 72 holes 14 times, but in those 14 times, he only broke 70, four times.  So there you have it, something to think about next time you are thinking of picking Paul Casey in Fantasy Golf.

Last time in Washington

The D.C. area has had a PGA Tour tournament ever since the old Kemper Open moved from Quail Hollow to Congressional in 1980.  Since then the tour has come ever year to D.C. except for 2010 (also 2011 but the U.S. Open was played at Congressional).  But after this year the Quicken Loans with a move to Detroit and the Detroit Golf Club.  The Quicken Loans has been Tiger Woods tournament since it first started in 2007.  The first couple of years when the tournament was played on fourth of July weekend, it was a great event with great fields.  That first year 47 of the top-100 participated.  Those first three years the event was held at Congressional, and a lot of tour players felt that they would give Tiger Woods and his foundation a hand by attending.  But after Tiger’s problems with personal things and the tournament relocated in Pennsylvania for two years, the competition started losing its luster.  After it became know that Congressional wasn’t interested in hosting the event and fields got worst, it also became a problem finding sponsors.  So in a way, it’s not surprising to see the Tiger Woods foundation step aside as this tournament has a fresh new start in Detroit next year.  I live in the Washington D.C. area, and even though I don’t attend the competition, I know that a lot of folks love to go and will miss when the tournament isn’t here next year.  Hopefully, in the future, something can be found for the Washington area, but I fear that with other cities like Denver, St. Louis and Seattle that maybe it will be a long time before the PGA Tour puts up stakes in the Washington D.C. area again.  Kind of a shame for us who lives here.

Tournament information:

At the start of the 2007 PGA season, it appeared that The International, the PGA’s lone stop in Colorado, would be gearing up to host its 21st annual golf tournament. However, very early on in the season, doubts began to arise about the tournament’s future as the search for a corporate sponsor was at a stand-still. On February 8, 2007, tournament director Greg Vickers announced that the 2007 International would not be played, primarily due to the lack of corporate sponsorship.

As soon as the date opened up on the PGA Tour calendar, Tiger Woods, who has expressed a desire to host a tournament in the past, entered into discussions with the PGA Tour. His goal was to create an exclusive event that would not only fill the year’s void left by the demise of The International but for years to come. On March 7, with less than one month of negotiations behind the two parties, Tiger Woods and the PGA Tour announced that the Washington D.C. area would play host to the inaugural AT&T National. The event took over for the Booz Allen Classic, which folded after the July 2006 event after a 39 year run with 27 of those in the Washington D.C. area. The 2007 event was played at The Congressional Country Club in nearby Bethesda, MD.

Despite the short time in getting it ready, the first year went off well, and it looked like the future of this event was going to be great.  In 2008 tournament host Tiger Woods had surgery right before the event and was not only able to play or even attend the event. He did return the next year and won.

The event had a great run at Congressional, and with it holding the U.S. Open in 2011 it needed to rebuild its greens.  So the AT&T National moved in 2010 for two years to the Philadelphia area with Aronimink Golf Club having a successful run with Justin Rose and Nick Watney winning.  The tournament returned to Congressional in 2012 and held the event in 2013 and 2014 before it moved to Robert Trent Jones in 2015.  The change was brought on when Congressional members didn’t want the event on a permanent basis, so they voted to bring it back in 2016, 2018 and 2020.  The tournament was played at Congressional in 2016 but little did anyone know it would be the last time.  With Quicken Loans backing out, the lack of no sponsor created a problem in paying Congressional, so the tournament went the cheap route by going to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms last year.  When Congressional said they didn’t want the tournament and no sponsor was found, the tournament died.  Quicken Loans did decide to bring a tournament to the Detroit area, and it just happened to be this one, so they agreed to sponsor the final year in the Washington area. Officially we don’t know if this event is only going to die after this year, or if it will continue with a shift to the Detroit Golf Club with its records continuing.

Course information:

• TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms
• Bethesda, MD.
• 7,107 yards     Par 35-35–70
• Opened initially thirty-one years ago in 1986, the course was roundly criticized for poor design in its early years. It was also plagued by years of flooding and drainage problems and by various turfgrass issues which affected the greens and often produced less than satisfactory tournament conditions. As a result, many top professionals stayed away, and the Kemper/Booz Allen tournament became unofficially relegated to “B” event status.
• In the summer of 2005, Dewberry and Davis land surveying crews were regularly seen taking measurements across the facility, sparking rumors that the long-criticized course would finally be reconfigured. Confirmation came in 2007 when it began a $32 million golf course and clubhouse renovation in an effort to bring back a tournament to the Washington D.C. area. The renovation covers the new course, which has been reshaped into a new 7,107-yard course at par 70 with Rock Run Creek being expanded and cleaned up.
• So what has happened to make the course better?  Numerous competitive and aesthetic changes were made to the golf course to make it more challenging for tournament play. This included significant modifications, re-shaping and enhancements to all 18 holes, featuring a complete re-design of holes 10, 11 and 13; lengthening of the course to 7,139 yards, with a new par-70 design; a new state-of-the-art irrigation system; an aesthetic and competitive design solution to stormwater management issues on holes 4, 5, 6, 10, 11 and 12.
• During the renovations, all the greens, tees and fairways were rebuilt with Bentgrass and a new irrigation and drainage system. The greens were re-orientated and re-contoured, and all bunkers were re-positioned and re-shaped giving it more of a Scottish feel, along with adding tall fescue grasses to some. All holes were re-graded and had their fairways reduced to approximately 30 to 35 yards. Accent features like stone walls and eight timber bridges create an older feel and charm. Along with all of these changes an expansive new practice facility and the short game area was built.  So hopefully things will be better
• Last year the course played to an average of 71.46 or a shot and a half over par.  It was the 4th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2017.  Look for some of the same this year.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms.

Isn’t it a shame that after looking for that perfect course for the Quicken Loans, they found one at the TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm but now that it’s the home of the event, it will be the home for the last year. Know of this is official yet since the schedule for 2019 hasn’t been announced, but it looks like Quicken Loans which came in at the last minute to sponsor this year’s event at TPC Potomac has inked a deal to sponsor a tournament next year in Detroit. So common sense tells us that the odds are very good that this event moves to Detroit next year, leaving the Washington D.C. area without an event.

The shame of all this is that since TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm first opened 32 years ago in 1986, the course was constantly criticized for being a terrible place to hold a tournament. Over the years millions of dollars were spent in trying to make the course better and between changes in 2007 and 2015, the course has gotten to a level that last year pros stop criticizing the course and actually giving the course phrases for not only the design with the condition it was. So now that they finally found a perfect solution, the course will again be abandoned from tournament play at least for the foreseeable future.

So the PGA Tour has one more go of this course and based on stats from last year’s event, here are the key stats that were needed to play well on the course. The biggest key for players last year was there play from tee to green, The course ranked 17th in driving accuracy and 9th in Greens in Regulation. You can tell the importance of these stats when you see the scrambling stats, last year the course ranked 6th hardest on tour. In looking at the top-12 from last year, five of the 12 were in the top-ten in greens hit so we can see what our number one category is, greens hit. While the course ranked 9th, last year’s winner Kyle Stanley hit the most greens of anyone in the field, 55 of 72. Our second choice is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee since the course ranked 17th in driving accuracy while tournament champion Kyle Stanley was 1st in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and was T-3rd in driving accuracy rank. Our third stat is scrambling, the course ranked 6th in 2017 while Stanley was 46th for the week. Our last category is Par Breaker because not only did Stanley rank T-6th en route to winning but the course was 8th in that stat.

The good news, the winds will be light each day and there will be no rain. The bad news temperatures will be in the middle 80s to the lower nineties.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is a great barometer on how good players manage their games around Augusta National. Every year the players that hit lot’s of greens do well.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: Measurements off the tee to see who saves the most strokes with perfect drives on the course compared to the field

*Scrambling: The percent of time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better.

*Par Breakers: The course allows a lot of birdies and eagles to be made, so par breakers is the percent of time scores are under par.

Of the 120 players in the field, 112 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2018.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to the other 102 players with stats for 2018.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rickie Fowler – $11,700
• Marc Leishman – $11,200
• Tiger Woods – $11,000
• Francesco Molinari – $10,600
• Kyle Stanley – $10,200
• J.B. Holmes – $10,000
• Jimmy Walker – $9.600
• Kevin Na – $9,400
• Beau Hossler – $9,300
• Kiradech Aphibarnrat – $9,200
• Joaquin Niemann – $9,000

Have to say this, because of the nature of the field with only 3 top-25 players in the field and done of them doing anything significant, frankly, I don’t see anyone taking Fowler, Leishman, Tiger, Molinari, Stanley, Holmes, and Na.  As for Jimmy Walker at $9,600 he fits the mold as a past winner that hasn’t done much lately but is excellent from tee to green and could be a great pick.  Also, like Kiradech Aphibarnrat at $9,200 and Joaquin Niemann at $9,000.  Oh, I didn’t forget about Beau Hossler at $9,300 he is high but did finish T-2nd last week.  Despite him having good numbers from tee to green the one black mark on him is he has never played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms, but that shouldn’t stop you, lot’s of other first-timers have won over the years.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

First up is Charles Howell III at $8,900  Not only was he runner-up last year, but he was also runner-up in 2004 when the Booz Allen was played at TPC Avenel. Even though he is overdue to win again, it’s like a win a decade for Howell. Kevin Streelman at $8,700 is also an excellent pick, he has the game from tee to green and if you remember he has won twice at the Travelers and Valspar, both courses like TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms.  Byeong Hun An at $8,600 is another good tee to green player that has won, and nobody knows, watch him and remember he was runner-up at Memorial last month.  Stewart Cink at $8,500 is a good pick, boy up until this week his price was always under $7,500 but after finishing T-4th at the FedExCup St. Jude and runner-up last week, he has to go on your radar screen, even with a price of $8,500.  Gary Woodland at $8,100 is a good pick; he is perfect from tee to green but terrible in scrambling. Still, his price is right.  Martin Laird at $7,800 is someone to watch; he finished T-3rd last year. Matt Jones at $7,600 may be worth your while; he played great in 3 of the 4 rounds last year at Avenel Farms so he may surprise some.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the Travelers

Boy, I hate to say this, but the pickings in the $7,500 and under barrel are slim.  Yes, Nick Watney and Ryan Palmer at $7,500 are both past winners that could surprise us.  Fabian Gomez at $7,100 could make the cut and get you some points, but he is a gamble.  Seamus Power at $6,900 could be right, not great from tee to green but makes a lot of birdies and is a good scrambler.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Quicken Loans National:

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Key stat for the winner:

As we found out last year, TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms has some teeth to it from tee to green.  So for this week look for players that hit it straight, far, hit lots of greens and scrambles well.  As for putting, that will take a back seat this week to the ball strikers.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Since there aren’t many marquee names in the field, look for a non-marquee player to win.  Look at the leaderboard from last year, lot’s of former winners like Charles Howell III (2nd), Martin Laird (T-3rd), Johnson Wagner (T-5th), Keegan Bradley (T-5th), David Lingmerth (T-5th) and Ben Martin (T-5th) have won on the PGA Tour but not for a while.  The same with winner Kyle Stanley, he hadn’t won since 2012 and claimed the winner’s circle again.  I see that happening again.

Weather should not play a factor this week, with perfect conditions and temperatures in the low 90s.  There won’t be any rain or wind, but watch each day get more uncomfortable as Washington in the summer and July is hot and humid.  The famous humidity will get worse as each day passes.  Other than that, perfect conditions for players.