BlogGreenbrier Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Three weeks before the Greenbrier Classic in 2016 a massive storm devastated the Greenbrier Valley. On June 23, 2016, 14 inches of rain fell in a span of 12 hours.  It turned the Greenbrier Valley into something that hasn’t been seen since Noah’s Ark’s was used.  The flooding devastated not only the area but wipe away the golf courses that were a part of the Greenbrier resort.  The floods were so biblical that 26 people in the state of West Virginia lost there lives that day and once the water resided the resort’s Old White course suffered extensive damage and was impossible to fix in such a short length of time.

When things finally dried out, it was determined that a total restoration was needed.  They hired Keith Foster, who does nothing but work on existing clubs in making them better and more playable.  This was not only a big job, but time was short because they had to seed the course before the winter.  At the same time, Foster needed to redo the course with the same Seth Raynor features that it had before the flood.  Along with rebuilding the course, he also updated it by repositioning 20 bunkers which brought the course more to the level of the best players in the world.  It was like redoing the Mona Lisa and making sure that nobody could tell the difference.

The big question will be if the course played like it uses to or if the changes will alter the way the players will attack the course? The answer was easy, yes the course played as it did in the past, the greens were perfect and every part of the tournament last year never showed the signs of the total destruction from 2016.

Players picking their spots:

We are getting to the part of the summer in which players have to be very choosy about where they play.  In the next 11 weeks, there are 12 events.  Out of those 12 are two majors (British Open & PGA Championship), the WGC-Bridgestone and the four FedEx Cup events.  So that means for every top player, they will try to play in seven events in 11 weeks which is a lot.  So events like this week’s Greenbrier may be a great event to play in, but the top guys have to be smart.  So for Greenbrier, John Deere, Canadian Open, Quicken Loans and Wyndham Championship they can’t possibly get great fields because of that.  So this is an excellent stretch for those on the bubble to get into the top-125 because fields for these events will go down the list of exemptions and with the Barbasol Championship and the Barracuda Championship lots of opportunity to climb up the ladder.

2014 was a perfect example, Geoff Ogilvy was 151st in the FedEx Cup race after the Canadian Open.  Things didn’t look very good for him, but he won the Barracuda Championship, which climbed him to 84th which got him into the playoffs.  He missed the cut at the Barclays which dropped him to 100th, right on the bubble to play the next event, the Deutsche Bank Championship.  He was runner-up climbing to 24th, was able to get into the Tour Championship and like that finished the FedEx Cup race 29th on the list.  So anything can happen in the next few weeks.

Player of the Year???

This is a concise discussion, I can’t pick a player of the year winner right now.  Not going to pick Masters Championship Patrick Reed or U.S. Open champion Brooks Koepka.  You only have five multiple winners, Bubba Watson (with 3 wins), Jason Day, Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas and done of them did any good in the majors, so it’s a non-story so far.  But as we said there are two majors, a WGC event, and four FedEx Cup playoff events and we know someone will break out of the pack.

Tournament information:

Most of the tournaments on the PGA Tour are in major cities across the world.  Of course there are some exceptions to the rule as the Hyundai Tournament of Champions is played in the small community of Kapalua, Maui, the Mayakoba Golf Classic is played in a resort in Mexico, the Puerto Rico Open is in the small town of Rio Grande and the Verizon Heritage is on a small island in South Carolina.  But on the whole, most PGA Tour events are played around big cities so that it can draw bigger crowds and getting corporate sponsors easier.

So, in a way, the Greenbrier Classic is an anomaly.  Played in White Sulphur Springs, which is in the Greenbrier County, the total population is just 2,463.  The nearest big city is Roanoke, Virginia if you call 94,000 the population of Roanoke a big city, which is 40 miles from Greenbrier. So the folks that are paying the bills are not looking to attract big crowds to this tournament.

Making things even more intriguing is the fact that the Greenbrier Resort, which has been an American hallmark resort for over 200 years, was almost eliminated just nine years ago.  Despite having a beautiful facility that catered to big money who liked the reputation of having at least one employee for every guest, in some respects with all of the competition from other resorts the Greenbrier was close to becoming as extinct as some of the dinosaurs that wondered our lands millions of years ago.

But this never happened.  Nine years ago when it looked like Marriott was about to buy it, break it up into little pieces and shutter what made this resort famous, a man by the name of Jim Justice came in on a white horse.   He bought the resort, and it’s four courses and 6,500 acres for 20 million dollars by buying the stock of the holding company that owned the debt of the hotel.  It was a bold move by Justice, who was born and bred in West Virginia and is from up the road in Lewisburg.

Now for Justice, $20 million is like pocket change for some of us as he was born to a wealthy family who made their money in coal and farming and Justice made even more money in the 50 business’s that he owns.  But he didn’t stop with spending $20 million, Justice wrote more checks in sprucing up the resort and building the Underground Casino Club that had a star-studded opening this week.

Justice realizes that he needed to promote tourism, and he has gone out of his way big time to do that.  It’s been reported that he spent $80 million on the underground Casino Club and he opened up his checkbook to make sure that the PGA Tour would come to town, not only for this year but for six years.  With this significant investment of golf, he will be able to showcase his resort and make it as well known as Pebble Beach was during the U.S. Open or even Kapalua is during the playing of the Hyundai.

After six years, the investment paid off.  The Greenbrier Classic produced a lot of good vibes about the resort and had propelled it to the top of the charts.  The only negative that came out is the field could be better, but for many, they love spending fourth of July at the Greenbrier.

For the time being, Justice has very little to do with Greenbrier as he is the governor of West Virginia.

Course information:

• The Old White TPC
• White Sulphur Springs, W.V.
• 7,287 yards     Par 35-35–70
• Many will remember Greenbrier as the site of the 1979 Ryder Cup matches and the 1994 Solheim Cup matches, but both of these were played on the Greenbrier Course, which was initially constructed and opened in 1924 and was redone by Jack Nicklaus in the 70s.  The course that holds the Greenbrier Classic is the Old White Course, a course design by C.B. MacDonald and Seth Raynor and opened in 1914.  One of the elements of what has happened in the last year, the course was , but Keith Foster came in and made sure the holes were restored to the same levels as when Charles Blair Macdonald and Seth Rayner did a decade ago.  Foster was able to redo the slop of the 8th green giving it the “redan” look.  The same with the 13th with the return of Prestwick’s “Alps” and on the 15th hole the “Eden” look from St. Andrews.
• Now the course was built at the time for the Old White Hotel and stood on the grounds between 1858 and 1922.  One of the first golfers to play The Old White was President Woodrow Wilson in April of 1914.  Now many people won’t remember this, but the course first held a PGA Tour event back in 1921 when Jock Hutchison won the White Sulphur Springs Open.  In the 50s, the PGA Tour came back to Greenbrier as in May the Greenbrier Pro-Am was played on the Old White Course as players like Cary Middlecoff, Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, and Dutch Harrison were winners.
• The course features generous fairways and challenging, undulating putting greens. Every hole has a distinct and well-defined strategy that allows for either a very challenging approach to the green, or one that has less risk, and a higher chance of success.  Many of the holes were design after famous Scottish holes. The 8th hole was styled after the Redan at North Berwick, the 13th after the Alps at Prestwick and the 15th after the Eden at St. Andrews.
• Despite not having a regular tour event, a small pro-am was held on the course and over the years most of the famous players of the last 50 years came to play it.  In 2006, the course went through restoration and today plays at 7,287 yards and to a par of 70.  The course has two par 5s, both of them on the back nine, and it’s always interesting to see if the course holds up as the best players in the world play it.
• The only real negative came the first year the event was played.  The course was not severe enough for the pros of the PGA Tour.  Officials knew it, players knew it, and when Stuart Appleby finished his round with three straight birdies to shoot 59 and win the event, the whole world knew that the Old White wasn’t up to snuff for the best players in the world.
• So with the approval of Greenbrier owner Jim Justice, who again took out his checkbook, the course was closed right after that 2010 event.  With the help of renowned architect Tom Fazio,  all the greens were reseeded, one green is new, and new tees have been added to several holes to stretch the course to 7,287 yards, an additional 256 yards.  Fazio not only lengthened several holes, he added and eliminated trees.  He also reshaped fairway bunkers but more importantly brought in rough in the fairways and made sure that the greens were firmer.
• Since then the course has played more robust as the best round in the last five years is 61. With the new restoration of the course, it will play a lot tougher this year. Yes, there will be a lot of low scoring again, but I don’t see anyone shooting below a 61 with the changes, and I can’t see low scoring.  To show you the difference, the first year the scoring average was 68.536, shot and a half under par.  In 2013, the scoring average was 69.868 which is just a notch below par meaning the course was a shot and a half tougher than the first year.  For those wondering, The Old White was the 25th toughest course on the PGA Tour.
• In 2014 the scoring average was 70.101 the first time the course played over par.  The Old White was the 26th hardest course on the PGA Tour.  In 2015 they played the tournament in perfect weather, and the scoring was 69.168 the 35th toughest course on tour.  With the year off and reconstruction of the course, last year the course played to a 69.86 average making it the 27th toughest course on tour, so it’s about the same as previous years.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Tony Finau – $11,500
• Phil Mickelson – $11,200
• Bubba Watson – $11,000
• Webb Simpson – $10,700
• Russell Henley – $10,400
• Xander Schauffele – $10,200
• Joaquin Niemann – $9.700
• Brian Harman – $9,500
• Charles Howell III – $9,300
• Jimmy Walker – $9,100
• J.B. Holmes – $9,000

Have to say this, because of the nature of the field with only two top-20 players in the field and a bunch of non-marquee players the highest price players, the tendency is to avoid them.  But last week we saw Francesco Molinari, and Tiger Woods do well, so we can’t prevent these top money players.  I don’t like Tony Finau at $11,500, but his last start was a 5th place finish at the U.S. Open.  Still, I am not going for him even though he was T-7th last year and T-13th in his other Greenbrier start.  Phil Mickelson at $11,200 is also ridiculous, especially since in 4 starts he only made the cut once, last year T-20th.  Bubba Watson at $11,000 seems reasonable with the fact that he has won 3 times this year, but his best finish was T-13th in 2015.  Now the reason both Mickelson and Watson are playing is their close relationship with The Greenbrier, so in a way, they are hired guns this week, and I will not pick them.  Now Webb Simpson at $10,700 seems like an ok choice. He has played well in three Greenbrier starts including a 3rd in 2014.  The only problem, he missed the cut at the Travelers but was T-10th at the U.S. Open.  Russell Henley at $10,400 is also high in my book, he finished T-6th in his last start but why I like him the most he was T-5th last year and 5th in 2015, so he will be my top pick.  As for Xander Schauffele at $10,200 I would avoid him, young defending champions have a tough time, and Schauffele has missed three cuts in his last four starts.  But in his previous five starts, he also has a T-6th at the U.S. Open and T-2nd at the Players. Still, he won’t be my pick.  Joaquin Niemann is another story at $9,700, he has done well, and I could see him winning this week.  Brian Harman at $9,500 is always a good pick but be careful this course may not suit his game.  Charles Howell III at $9,300 is a toss-up, he does make lot’s of points and birdies, does make the cut but that it’s and at this price, it’s too much in my mind.  Jimmy Walker at $9,100 is ok, does make cuts and was runner-up in this event once.  Last is J.B. Holmes at $9,000 I usually would say no to him because of the chance of him shooting 80, but has a good track record at the Greenbrier and was 3rd at the FedEx St. Jude, T-2nd at Travelers but missed cut last week.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Like Danny Lee at $8,800, he won in 2015 and was T-9th last year.  I know he has missed the cut in three of his previous four starts, but he has some Greenbrier magic.  Kevin Streelman at $8,600 is a solid choice, nothing fancy but does make a lot of cuts.  Anirban Lahiri at $8,300 is also a good choice, first time at Greenbrier but has been very consistent this year.  Jamie Lovemark at $8,200 is an excellent choice, he was 3rd last year and has been consistent in the previous three months.  Brian Gay at $8,100 is also a choice, yes he has a terrible record at Greenbrier but has had a great season, and I have to think that good play will show up this week.  Ryan Armour at $7,700 is good, was runner-up last week. Ted Potter, Jr. at $7,600 is also a choice, he has played bad since winning at Pebble but has a good record at Greenbrier.

Some of the “bargains” this week at Greenbrier

The first name that comes to mind is Robert Streb at $7,000.  I know that he has missed the cut in his last three starts but was runner-up last year and in 2015, sorry have to go with him.  Also, you have to pick David Lingmerth at $7,200, high price for a man that has been consistent this year and had two top-tens at Greenbrier.  One person to take a gamble on is David Hearn at $6,700, yes he has missed more cuts that he has made in the last three months, but he was T-14th last year, runner0up in 2015 and T-12th in 2012.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Military Tribute at the Greenbrier:

Key stat for the winner:

Only seven events have been played, and in looking at the winners, one stat stands out.  That is scrambling which makes sense since the greens at Old White are small and if you miss the green, it’s tough to get it up and down.  In 2010 Stuart Appleby was 2nd, getting it up and down 14 of the 15 greens missed.  In 2011 Scott Stallings didn’t do well in that stat but runner-up Bill Haas was second getting it up and down 18 of the 22 greens he missed.  In 2012 Ted Potter, Jr. won the event ranking 9th in scrambling, getting it up and down 16 of 20 times.  In 2013 Jonas Blixt got it up and down 19 of 24 tries, ranking T-3rd.   So look at those that have done well in scrambling this year to do well this week.  Now in 2014 Angel Cabrera ranked T-52nd in scrambling, but it was for a good reason.  That’s because Cabrera led the field in Greens hit so that you can see the reason for the sub-par scrambling rank.  But after that things drastically changed.  In 2015 Danny Lee was T-43rd in greens hit but was not that great of a scrambling, ranking 47th  As of last year winner Xander Schauffele was 1st in greens hit and 68th in scrambling (only five worst than him).  So in making your picks look at the scrambling stats for 2018 and see if any of the top players interest you this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• I know this event has only been played seven times, but the tournament still hasn’t seen a winner who led after either the first round, the second round or the third round.  It’s been a come-from-behind haven for this event, with no 54-hole leader yet able to close the deal on the final day. Three of the seven winners have come from at least four shots back – Jonas Blixt (2013), Ted Potter Jr. (2012) and Stuart Appleby (2010).  Now for  2011 winner Scott Stallings he was one back of Anthony Kim.   Angel Cabrera in 2014 was two shots back.  Last year Schauffele was two back going into the final round, and Danny Lee was one back in 2015.
• Of the 152 players in the field (before Monday qualifying), only 65 have won on the PGA Tour, and only eight have won a major.  So this could be the week to shine, as was the week for Scott Stallings in 2011, Ted Potter, Jr. in 2012, Jonas Blixt in 2013, Danny Lee in 2015 and Zander Schauffele last year.  Look for that eager player ready to finally break out and win for the first time.
• Going on the theme that no wins could be an advantage at the Greenbrier, look at the 47 players that finished 5th or better in the history of the event.  Of the 47, only 15 of them had won on the PGA Tour.  So this may not be the week for those like Webb Simpson, Phil Mickelson or a Bubba Watson.
• The par 4s are some of the best in the country so playing them well is essential.  Stuart Appleby was 15 under in his 2010 win, Scott Stalling was 3 under in 2011, Ted Potter Jr. was 10 under in 2012,  Jonas Blixt was 4 under in 2013, Angel Cabrera in 2014 was 11 under while in 2015 Danny Lee was 5 under.  Last year Xander Schauffele played the par 4s in 7 under
• Is putting important?  For four of the seven champions, it is as Jonas Blixt was first in 2013 while Stuart Appleby ranked 3rd in number of putts while Ted Potter, Jr. was T3rd in 2014 and Danny Lee was T-4th in 2015.  As for Scott Stallings he was T53rd in 2011, and 2014 winner Angel Cabrera was T-29th.  Last year’s winner Xander Schauffele was T-49th in putting last year.
• Weather will play a factor. The tournament will have to dance around a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. Some days, the forecast calls for scattered thunderstorms, a summertime fact of life at White Sulphur Springs.  The worst days will be Friday.  Temperatures will be in the high 80s each day with high humidity, good news no wind all week.
• One thing to remember, this time of year it’s hard to predict the weather because there could be pop-up thunderstorms in the afternoon.