BlogCanadian Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Another great British Open, on a scale of 1 to 100 it had to be a 95.  A bit disappointed to see Tiger not able to win, same for Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy.  But have to say this Francesco Molinari is a really good player who at 35 years old has finally hit his stride.  People don’t realize that he has been a mainstay on the European Tour since 2005 and going into this year had won five times on the European Tour.  Now he has really gone crazy.  Since winning the BMW PGA Championship in May he has played in six events and won three of them, was runner-up twice and was T-25th at the U.S. Open.  He is 78 under par (that includes 2 majors) and has earned $5,574,436 (or about $101,353 a day).  I would have to say that based on his season Molinari is your player of the year.

It’s amazing how each year the British Open seems to create a lot of buzz and excitement.  I can’t put my finger on a real reason other than the course and the importance that both NBC and Sky Sports puts into it.  People don’t realize how really tough Carnoustie is and for the winning score to only be 8 under is remarkable.  If this was St. Andrews the winning score would have been closure to 25 under and there would have been dozens of scores under 65 and it’s reasonable to say that a sub 60 score could have been possible

Now my one big disappointment was the play of Dustin Johnson.  Sorry, but he has no business shooting 76-72 he is that good of a player.  Matter of fact I am pretty tired of the play of the top-ten of the world rankings in the majors.  Below is a chart on how last week’s top-tens have played so far in the three major championships.

Player                                Masters    U.S. Open    British Open

• 1. Dustin Johnson       T-10                    3                         Cut
• 2. Justin Thomas        T-17                  T-25                      Cut
• 3. Justin Rose              T-12                  T-10                      T-2
• 4. Brooks Koepka         DNP                Win                      T-39
• 5. Jon Rahm                   4                      Cut                       Cut
• 6. Jordan Spieth            3                      Cut                        T-9
• 7. Rickie Fowler             2                     T-20                     T-28
• 8. Rory McIlroy            T-5                    Cut                       T-2
• 9. Jason Day                 T-20                  Cut                       T-17
• 10. Tommy Fleetwood T-17                    2                         T-12

Sorry but I just can’t fathom both Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas missing the cut.  They were both heavenly favorite and better than to miss the cut.  No rhyme or reason other than just not working hard enough on their games.

As for Rory McIlroy, he was very impressive, especially from tee to green. He still missed a lot of putts and if he could make his fair share of putts between 5 and 20 feet would be awesome.  I just have a feeling after watching him on Sunday that he is ready to break out and I will say this, I think he will win between now and the Ryder Cup.

Have to say the same thing about Tiger Woods.  He is putting the pieces together and it’s only a matter of time that he wins.  Tiger realizes that he isn’t the same player he was 15 years ago, but at the same time, he is doing things to reduce problems that lead to bogeys and doubles.  He has been very patient and all of this will pay off.  Oh have to say this, he will be playing in the Ryder Cup, no issues over this.

RBC Canadian Open

First played in 1904, only the British Open, U.S. Open, and BMW (old Western Open) are older.  To think that 108 have been played and for the treatment, it gets on the PGA Tour is cruel.  It has always been saddled with a tough date and this week has to be the worst.  With the British Open last week, the WGC-Bridgestone next week and then the following week the PGA Championship it means a four-week commitment for the top players to attend this week.  This is why of the marquee players in golf we only see Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood, Sergio Garcia, Matt Kuchar and Bubba Watson playing this week.  Making things harder for Golf Canada, the tournament’s governing body is the future.  They made a commitment to take the tournament all-around Canada to other clubs in other parts of the country, but at the end of the day, Glen Abbey is the course best suited to hold the tournament.  So for the 4th year in a row and for the 5th time in five years, it returns to Glen Abbey the favorite venue of the modern-day Canadian Open.

But things will be drastically different after this year.  The good news is a change of date, next year the Canadian Open will be the week before the U.S. Open and even though it will be on the east coast while the U.S. Open is in California, they will get the best field they have ever gotten.  Now that is the good news, the bad news is that for the 30th time Glen Abbey will hold the Canadian Open and there is a good chance this could be the last time it ever holds it.

The company that owns it ClubLink is trying to develop on the property and replace Glen Abbey with about 3,000 homes.  The community has been fighting them tooth and nail, but it’s only a matter of time.  Will Glen Abbey ever hold another Canadian Open, nobody at this juncture really knows.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Glen Abbey

This is based on the most vital stats from Glen Abbey, based on data from last year’s RBC Canadian Open and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2018.

Even though this event tries to move around to different courses in Canada, Glen Abbey has been used 10 times since 1998, and with the course possibly being torn apart for houses, there is a good chance this could be the last Canadian Open to be played on it. Right now Hamilton Golf and Country Club has been named the host of the 2019 championship.

The course is Jack Nicklaus first effort by himself. It’s very well loved by PGA Tour players who find the course challenging off the tee, but easy to score. Last year the course played to a 70.37 average, almost three-quarters of a shot under par. It ranked 42nd hardest on tour. One thing that sticks out is that players have to drive it straight and the course can’t be overpowered. It has a very unusual finish as three of the final 6 holes are par 5, so scoring tends to come late. Even though four of the last six holes are the easiest on the course, the par 4, 14th was the hardest hole on the course and the 58th hardest hole on tour at 4.233 while the par 4, 17th hole which is usually really tough was under par for the first time in years at 3.942 showing that the finish isn’t a complete layup.

One thing that the players will have to worry about is the weather. In looking at the forecast for Glen Abbey every day will have a chance of rain except for Sunday which will be nice. Temperatures start off warm, it will be 80 on Thursday but as the tournament goes on more pleasant temperatures are in store as of Sunday it will only be 75 with low humidity and low winds. So the scores will probably be low.

The question is if every phase of the game will be examined at Glen Abbey? Not really, yes it’s tough off the tee but then pretty easy with greens that are true and not that tough. It’s a course that anybody that plays it will have a chance to win.

So in looking at our four categories, our first is Fairway Accuracy. It’s what makes this course tough and last year Glen Abbey ranked 13th hardest on tour, so you have to be straight to play well. Next up is Greens in Regulation, Glen Abbey ranked 27th, and you better be good with your irons to the greens. Our third stat is Strokes Gained-Putting, we chose that because Glen Abbey was relaxed in all putting stats including putting average were it ranked T-47th. So look for the good putter to do well. Last is birdie average, lot’s of birdies are made with the average being 4.31 per player which ranked 47th on tour in 2017.

Jhonattan Vegas seems to own the course He has won the last two years and in that time is 33 under par. So how did he do the last two years he won the event? In fairway accuracy, Vegas was wild compared to the others in the field, ranking T-55th in 2016 and T-53rd previous year. He did so much better in Greens hit, ranking T-3rd in 2016 and T-7th last year. In strokes gained-putting, he was 29th in 2016 and 11th last year while in birdie average he was 1st in 2016 and last year.

So I know the field isn’t the best, but this tournament has a lot of history and is played on a great course, so we will have a great finish.

*Fairway Accuracy: The percentage of time a tee shot comes to rest in the fairway

*Greens in Regulation: The percent of time a player was able to hit the green in regulation

*Strokes Gained-Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

*Birdie Average: Average number of birdies made during a round.

Here are the 125 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2018:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to the other 115 players.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,700
• Brooks Koepka – $10,800
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,500
• Sergio Garcia – $9,900
• Tony Finau – $9,800
• Bubba Watson – $9,600
• Matt Kuchar – $9,500
• Joaquin Niemann – $9,400
• Jimmy Walker – $9.300
• Gary Woodland – $9,200
• Ian Poulter – $9,100
• Kevin Kisner – $9,000

I can tell you off the bat that I don’t like Dustin Johnson at $11,700, Brooks Koepka at $10,800, Sergio Garcia at $9,900, Bubba Watson at $9,600 and Matt Kuchar at $9,500.  As for Johnson he lost a bunch of style points for not playing well at Carnoustie, sorry but the course was deemed up for him.  I do like Tommy Fleetwood at $10,500, he has played well and should do OK this week.  Same with Tony Finau at $9,800 I think he will do just fine.  Joaquin Niemann at $9,400 is also high on my list, the course is right up his alley.  As for Jimmy Walker at $9,300 and Gary Woodland at $9,200 I like both of them and fell they will produce big time for you.  Ian Poulter at $9,100 is very high but still see him playing well.  I also didn’t like what I saw of Kevin Kisner at Carnoustie, many will take him but at $9,000 think he is too long.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Steve Stricker is back at $8,800 and I say take him.  He has played way too good on the PGA Tour in 2018 and should do ok this week.  Also like Charley Hoffman at $8,700, he is good on the course.  Brandt Snedeker at $8,500 is good, he plays well on the course.  Billy Horschel at $8,000 is a good buy do to his great numbers in driving and making birdies.  Jamie Lovemark at $7,800 is another great buy and should be ok.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the RBC Canadian Open

Have to like past champion Chez Reavie at $7,300.  Same with last week’s winner Troy Merritt at $7,200 he should do better than the way Draft Kings has his numbers at.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Canadian Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Those that have played the course before will have a slight edge but the key to the course will be for those to manage the par 4s.  With the 16th playing as a par 4 in 2004 instead of a par 5, it was the 11th toughest hole on the PGA Tour in 2004.  In 2009 as a par 5 it was the 896th rank hole that year on the PGA Tour (out of 918) showing how much easier it is as a par  In 2015 it was the 920th hardest hole on tour (out of 936) playing to a 4.457 average.  Last year it was the 884th hardest hole with a 4.3434 average.  On the other hand, the 14th hole was the 10th hardest hole on the PGA Tour in 2004 and the 48th hardest in 2009 as it played to a 4.276 average.  In 2015 it was the 47th hardest hole on Tour at 4.282 while last year it was the 58th hardest on tour with a 4.433 average. Both holes will be important for the winner to master.  Both of these holes will hold the key to a winners score.  In 2015 Jason Day played the 14th hole in 1 over and the 16th hole in 3 under.  The real key for Day winning, he played 16, 17 and 18 in 10 under par.  The same for last year and 2016 winner Jhonattan Vegas.  In 2016 he played the 14th hole in 2 over and the 16th in 3 under.  For the week Vegas played 15, 16, 17 and 18 in 4 under par.  Last year Vegas played the 14th hole in 1 over and 15, 16, 17 and 18 in 6 under, again big key in winning.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Over the years Glen Abbey got a reputation as a long hitters kind of course, but if you look at all of the champions since 1990 all but Jason Day, Greg Norman, Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh were short hitters.  But you can add Jhonattan Vegas to the list of long drivers to win at Glen Abbey.  Another thing, most of the winners at Glen Abbey fade the ball, that makes sense since five of the six holes that bend go to the right, a Jack Nicklaus design trait.

Greens are contoured and well bunkered which means that those that scramble will do very well.

Putting seems to be the key to success at Glen Abbey.  Those that have put well tend to get the nod over players that hit lots of greens.  So a good putter and scrambler will prevail this week.

With the last hole being a par 5, it has produced some wild finishes over the years. Final hole birdies were made by Greg Norman in 1992 to get into a playoff, and by David Frost (’93) and Nick Price (’94) to win by one.  ’98 was the most bizarre finish with Andrade winning the playoff with a par, while in  ’99 Hal Sutton birdied the hole three times and made par it in the final round.  2000 will always be tops on the highlight reel for Tiger Woods hitting the prettiest shot from a fairway bunker over the lake to made birdie and nip Grath Waite by a shot while in 2004 Vijay Singh made a birdie, Mike Weir didn’t which forced a playoff which Singh won.  In 2008 Chez Reavie played the hole in three under, including a birdie in the final round, an accomplishment that most of the winners achieve in the final round.  In 2015 Jason Day birdied the final hole to win by a shot over Bubba Watson.  The 18th hole proved to be kind to Day as he made three birdies and an eagle on the hole.  Now in 2016, Jhonattan Vegas pulled off a miracle finish of making birdies on 16, 17 and 18 for a one-shot win over Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson and Martin Laird.  Last year Vegas was able to play the last two holes with two pars to win.

With a field that isn’t loaded with marquee names, I would say a first-time winner is very probable.  The last three winners Jhonattan Vegas, Jason Day and Brandt Sneaker weren’t first-time winners but the past has been loaded with them. Nathan Green was a first-time winner in 2009 when the Canadian Open was held at Glen Abbey.  Chez Reavie was also a first time PGA Tour winner in 2008. The last time a first-time winner prevailed at the Canadian Open was in 2002 and previous to that was in 1996 when Dudley Hart won and before that, it was in 1981 when Peter Oosterhuis won.  So the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey has favored non-winners, a trend that could continue this year.

Now we tend to forget that this is the national open of Canada but it’s been a while since a Canadian has one it.  You have to go back to 1954 when Pat Fletcher won it.  Mike Weir came close to winning in 2004, only to give up a lead on the final holes and then lose a playoff to Vijay Singh.  Other than that it’s been a bit bare as Dave Barr finished T4th in 1988, while David Morland IV finished T5th in 2001.   Now Weir has always been the sentimental choice of this event and wasn’t in the field last year due to his elbow problems.  He is back this year but the odds on him just making the cut isn’t very high.  So who could be the Canadian with the best chance of winning?  Of those in the field, Adam Hadwin is the highest ranked, being 55th in the Official World Rankings.  Next, best is Graham Delaet at 218 followed by Mackenzie Hughes at 254th.   What do I think of a Canadian winner?  I don’t see it happening this year because none of the Canadians are playing well right now, but you never know.