BlogThe Northern Trust Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

It’s the homestretch of the 2018 PGA Tour season.  After 45 events spread over the last 11 months, for many their season is over.  Guys like Sergio Garcia (128), Chad Campbell (129), Aaron Baddeley (132), Lucas Glover (135), Shane Lowry (140), Jim Furyk (141), Graeme McDowell (144), Steve Stricker (145), Matt Jones (151), Bill Haas (152), Retief Goosen (153) and Hunter Mahan (159) are finished for this year.

For many that finish worst than 126th, they won’t have the month off because they will have to attend the Web.Com Tour finale, which for many will be a grind just like Q-School used to be.

But for those going into the playoffs, it’s all about making as much money as they can.  For each level or playoff event they play in the bonus money gets even bigger and for one really lucky guy there is $10 million award awaiting him.

We can shake our head over Rory McIlroy not playing but it’s not about the money and he feels that a week off is needed.  If you look at the year, even though Rory won the Arnold Palmer it wasn’t that great of a year and he has now gone four years since his last major victory at the PGA Championship in 2014.

One person that we will see is Brandt Snedeker, who last year wasn’t able to participate due to a sternum injury.  For the man who won the FedExCup in 2012, he had a terrible year and going into the Greenbrier in July he was 115th in the FedExCup rankings and in danger of not making the playoffs for two years in a row.  But with a T-3rd in Greenbrier and a T-8th at the RBC Canadian Open, he worked his way up the FedExCup rankings and was 80th when he teed off at the Wyndham.  With the win, he now has a chance of winning the FedExCup and also making the Ryder Cup team, which seemed out of reach just a couple of weeks ago.  We know the way Snedeker is and how once he gets into these streaks, could be unbeatable for the next month.

On the other end of the spectrum is Henrik Stenson.  Last year he won Wyndham and was on top of the world as he stood 6th in the Official World Rankings.  But he has been hampered by an elbow problem and even though he finished T-6th at the U.S. Open, he has struggled and decided to rest the elbow this week.

There is a lot of pieces to a puzzle this week at Ridgewood.  Not only do we have the first leg of the FedExCup playoffs as players will be jockeying for position.  Seamus Power is 125th, Harris English is 124th and Jhonattan Vegas is 123rd and they can’t do anything wrong this week because they have to get into the top-100 to play next week in Boston.  Another race happening this week is for a dozen guys trying to get the four wildcard spots onto the Ryder Cup team.  Lets’ be real, you have to think that Tiger Woods has one of those slots so it’s down to three players.  I will bet a good chunk of change that Brandt Snedeker goes wild in the next 3 weeks and will get one of those spots.  So that leaves two spots and on top of the list has to be Phil Mickelson, who has played in every Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup since 1994.  Mickelson has played terrible since finishing T-5th at the Wells Fargo and after missing the cut at the PGA Championship you have to think that if he doesn’t make the cut this week and next, Jim Furyk will have to look elsewhere.  He has a wild range of players that are doing well right now, Tony Finau is probably on top of that list followed by Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner and Gary Woodland.  All of these players can make the team if they play well either this week or next.

Tournament information:

• This is the 52nd annual Northern Trust. Originally dubbed the Westchester Classic, the tournament has undergone a slew of name changes over the years. Just a decade after Jack Nicklaus captured the inaugural tournament in thrilling fashion back in 1967, the tournament became the American Express Westchester Classic.
• Three years later, in 1979, American Express pulled out as title sponsor and the event became known as the Manufacturers Hanover Westchester Classic. The name lasted until 1990 when Buick became the title sponsor. In 2005, Barclays took over as chief sponsor of the event and lasted for 12 years.  Northern Trust took over sponsorship in 2017.
• The Northern Trust, use to be played the week before or after the U.S. Open in June, was shifted to the middle of August to accommodate being the first event in the FedEx Cup playoffs.
• The first year of the playoffs,  Westchester was used and Steve Stricker won.  Since then the Northern Trust has moved away from Westchester, and it looks like it will never go back. Lot’s of reasons for it not ever coming back, but most of them were because of the logistics and not because of the course itself.
• The future of the Northern Trust changed a bit with the new schedule coming out for 2019.  With the Dell Technology leaving after this year, that leaves the Boston market with no PGA Tour events.  But Northern Trust stepped up and said they would put TPC Boston into its rota and the course will hold the Northern Trust in 2020 and 2022.  After that, it will use Ridgewood, Plainfield, Liberty National, and Bethpage. Last year it was played at Glen Oaks Club in Old Westbury, New York and it seemed like a success but there is no commitment for this course being used in the future.

Here is a look at the sites of the Northern Trust in the coming years.

• 2018 – Ridgewood Country Club
• 2019 – Liberty National Golf Club
• 2020 – TPC Boston
• 2021 – Bethpage State Park (Black Course)
• 2022 – TPC Boston

Course information:

Ridgewood Country Club (Composite)

• Paramus, N.J.
• 7,385 yards     Par 35-36–71
• For the first 41 years of this event, it was held at Westchester Country Club which had the reputation of being one of the most demanding courses on the PGA Tour.  With the change to Ridgewood in 2008, that reputation didn’t change as players loved the A.W. Tillinghast course.  The club has 27 holes and a composite course (seven holes from Ridgewood’s East Course, six from its West Course and five from the Central Course) will be used that measures 7,385 yards and play to a par of 71.
• With only three par 5s, the course will play tough.  Of the 11 par 4s, only two of them are under 400 yards, the 1st and the 12th.  The first is 380 yards while the 12th is a driveable par 4 of 291.  After that,  the 14th hole is the shortest at 412 yards.  Even the par 3s are bears with one the 15th being 155 yards, one at 190 and the other two over 217 yards.
• Ridgewood has held a Ryder Cup (1935), and the U.S. Amateur (1974 won by Jerry Pate).  It was the site of the 1991 U.S. Senior Open won by Lee Trevino and in 2001 Tom Watson won the Senior PGA Championship at Ridgewood.
• The course will be tough because of tight fairways with rough that is 3 inches thick and tall mature trees.  The start of the course is an easy section, with holes 6 through 12 being the most demanding.  In 2008, the course played fast and firm the course played to a 71.406 average, was the 24th hardest course for that year.  The hardest hole was the 12th, a 475 par 4 that played at 4.34 average.  Matter of fact holes 8 through 12 are the hardest stretch as the 8th hole was the 2nd hardest, the 9th the 6th hardest, the 10th the 4th hardest and the 11th the 3rd hardest.
• In 2010, the course played to a 70.977 average and was the 24th hardest course of the year.  The hardest hole was the 18th playing to a 4.236 average.
• In 2014 the weather was very wet and the course was very soggy.  Because of that the scoring average jumped to 70.81 and it was the 31st hardest course on tour.
• It’s been a very rainy couple of weeks, so look for low scores and the course won’t be firm and fast, they way it played in 2008 and 2010.

One thing that we have to look at is history and in the three previous years who has played the best.

• Jason Day was T-2nd in 2014, T-5th in 2010 and T-31st in 2008
• Matt Kuchar was T-5th in 2014, Won in 2010 and missed the cut in 2008
• Patrick Reed was T-9th in 2014 the only time he played the course
• Paul Casey Was T-22nd in 2014, T-12th in 2010 and T-7th in 2008.
• Martine Laird was 2nd in 2010 and T-7th in 2008
• Kevin Streelman was T-46th in 2014, T-3rd in 2010 and T-4th in 2008. An interesting sidebar on Streelman, his grandparents are both buried in a cemetery that is right of the 10th hole.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,500
• Justin Thomas – $11,200
• Jason Day – $10,700
• Brooks Koepka – $10,500
• Tiger Woods – $10,100
• Justin Rose – $9,900
• Jon Rahm – $9,700
• Jordan Spieth – $9,600
• Francesco Molinari – $9,500
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,400
• Webb Simpson – $9,200
• Brandt Snedeker – $9,000
• Adam Scott – $8,900

Again for another week I am not entirely sold on Dustin Johnson, especially with a price tag of $11,500.  He didn’t show much at the PGA and in his two starts at Ridgewood, he was  T-9th in 2010 and missed the cut in 2008.   Yes, he won in Canada and shot 66-64 on the weekend to finish T-3rd at the Bridgestone but was T-27th at the PGA so I would pass on him.  Justin Thomas is also high at $11,200 but he is playing well and he was T-6th last year and T-10th in 2016 so he is a good pick.  Also, I like Jason Day at $10,700, he has played well at Ridgewood and has played ok this summer so he is a good choice.  Brooks Koepka at $10,500 seems to be a good choice after winning the PGA Championship but I don’t like him.  His record on Northeastern old fashion courses is spotty but before you discard him he was T-4th in the PGA Championship at Baltusrol, but I don’t think of that course in the same realm as Ridgewood so I would pass on him.  Tiger Woods at $10,100 is an interesting choice, he too hasn’t played well in this event and on tough, Northeast style courses but he is Tiger Woods and I will take him.  Justin Rose at $9,900 is a tough choice, normally I would say yes on this kind of course but Rose may not be 100% and didn’t play well at the PGA so you would probably be best to pass on him this week.  I don’t like Jon Rahm at $9,700, the same with Jordan Spieth at $9,600 and Francesco Molinari at $9,500.  I do like the next four Tommy Fleetwood at $9,400, Webb Simpson at $9,200 Adam Scott at $8,900 and especially Brandt Snedeker at $9,000.  I think he will go crazy and be in the running the next couple of weeks, that is his MO when he wins, it usually comes in pairs and he should do well.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,800 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I can’t say enough about Patrick Cantlay at $8,600 and Tony Finau at $8,500.  They both have been going along in good form and should continue to play great golf.  I also like Patrick Reed at $8,400, he has won this event and was T-9th in 2014.  You can’t go wrong with Paul Casey at $8,300 and Matt Kuchar at $8,200 is a steal when you consider he won this event on this course in 2010 and was T-5th in 2014.  Ian Poulter at $7,600 is also worth a look, he wants to play well to make the Ryder Cup team.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Northern Trust

I don’t see anything wrong with Kevin Kisner and surprise you can get him at $7,300.  The same with Jimmy Walker at $7,200 think he will do well but you should pass on Phil Mickelson at $7,300.  Charl Schwartzel at $7,200 is worth the cost, he plays well on these type of courses.   I am also taking Kevin Streelman at $6,900 just because this course is special to him since his grandparents are buried right off the 10th hole.  Last bargain is Charley Hoffman at $6,800 he has the firepower and is a great cheap choice.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at Ridgewood:

This week is a mix of tour stars like Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy with a lot of first-time winners and a lot of non-winners.  In past years winning had a lot to do with the weather, when it’s good the tour stars seem to shine but in bad weather, it becomes a long shot delight.  Also in past Northern Trust look for those who play well with the lead, 26 of the 48 winners since 1970 have held the lead going into the final round and went on to win.  Since 1989, 16 of those 29 third round leaders have won but since leaving Westchester the third round leader has won just once, in 2015 with Jason Day (2011 was reduced to 54 holes).

Key stat for the winner:

The Northern Trust’s has always been a test of survival and maybe that’s why in the 51-year history of the event it’s 43 champions have won 67 majors.

Hitting greens in regulation will be paramount. The tight venue will require good ball control, which will result in hitting lots of greens. Look for the winner to hit a plethora of greens in regulation this week, that was the way Dustin Johnson won last year as he ranked T-3rd in Greens hit.  In 2014 and ’15 both winners Jason Day and Patrick Reed led the field in greens hit.

One of the big hazards of missing fairways and greens are the bunkering at Ridgewood.  There are 78 of them, and they aren’t the ones that pros are use to, flat, easy to get out of kind.  These are very steep-banked, even in the fairway and take the best of bunker players to maneuver through.  Players are used to hitting into bunkers and having an easy up and down, that won’t happen this week.

Good putting is a necessity for this event. The course has a stimpmeter rating of 12 with a lot of undulation in the greens, which means players who handle the flat-blade and have a good feel for the green will do well.

Is there any rhyme or reason for a player to win this week?

Wisdom says that a player with a lot of experiences will win but since this course is not a well know entity a newcomer could do well.

A player that drives the ball long and straight and will make almost all of his putts inside 8 feet.  That is very easy to say, is there a human being that can do that?  Yes, there will be a few but we won’t know it until the weekend.

Players ranking between about 100th and 125th have extra incentive because they need a good showing to stay alive in the lucrative FedExCup, with the top 100 moving on the following week’s Dell Technologies Championship. In 2009, Heath Slocum barely made the field at The Northern Trust but his victory helped him to ultimately finish eighth in the FedExCup. In 2013, Martin Laird was 95th heading into the week and lost in a playoff, eventually finishing 11th in the FedExCup. In 2014 we saw Billy Horschel begin the FedEx Cup playoffs ranked 69th and go on to win it.  So anything is possible.

Lastly, the outlook for the tournament couldn’t be any better as sunny skies with temperatures hovering around 80 will be around all four days with a very low chance of rain.  But over the course of the last couple of weeks, a lot of rain has fallen on Ridgewood, which will make the course play very softly.   So look for those that hit it long to have an advantage plus those that scramble.