BlogDell Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Lot’s of change coming in the FedExCup Playoffs.  First, this will be the last time the Dell Technologies Championship is being played.  The main reason was sponsorship when Deutsche Bank was the sponsor; everything was okay.  But with their problems, they left the event after 2016 leaving it vulnerable at a wrong time.  With the Tour contemplating the future of the schedule and the future of the FedExCup playoffs, several things happened.  First FedEx resigned to sponsor the playoffs through 2027, but it looks like they requested several items from the Tour. The first was to change the FedEx St. Jude Classic to a higher realm, and they did that when Bridgestone didn’t want to sponsor the WGC event in Akron.  So FedEx took over sponsorship and moved the event to Memphis, so now that city will hold a better tournament that will get the best players in the world to Memphis for one week.

The second thing that FedEx wanted was not having the playoffs compete with the NFL, and the Tour has taken care of that request with the season ending before Labor Day.

Now we see stories come out, the first by Associated Press Doug Ferguson which details the overall change of the FedExCup Playoffs.  These changes make a lot of sense, first by reducing the playoffs from four to three events, which will give each stop importance so that they find a way to get everyone to play.  But the most significant change is what could happen next year to the final event the Tour Championship.  For years the big problem was that there would be two prizes given out, the first for winning the Tour Championship and then for the winner of the FedExCup Playoffs.  This proved very awkward at times, giving out two trophies like last year when Xander Schauffele won the Tour Championship and Justin Thomas winning the FedExCup Playoffs.   So the tour will make a significant change to the format next year to the Tour Championship. The PGA Tour has come up with a solution, which hasn’t been finalized as they still work on it.  What the concept would be is that instead of having points determine the winner of the FedExCup what will happen is that the 30 players will start the Tour Championship with each person having a score going to the first tee of the championship.  So the leader of the FedExCup could start the tournament at 10 under par, thus an advantage over those down the list.  The winner of the Tour Championship and the final score would win not only the Tour Championship but also the FedExCup playoffs.  Of course, there are some who will think this is very creative and different, while others will say it’s very contrived and ruins the Tour Championship because the best player won’t win.  I can take a coin out and flip it, I can’t decide what is best, but it is different and in this day and age difference is sometimes useful.  One thing that I do love is that right now the Wyndham Championship has no importance other than for those trying to save there PGA Tour cards.  What the Tour might do is to get a winner of the FedExCup points and give a bonus to the top-three players with $3 million going to those at top of the FedExCup rankings at the end of regular play.  This will force the leaders or those close to show up for the Wyndham with a possible big check.

Will these changes work, I think they will and breed new life to the playoffs which right now is nothing more than a big money grab.

Talking about a money grab, will you pay to watch Tiger and Phil play at Thanksgiving?

Many people were excited with the prospect of having Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson playing an exhibition for $9 million.  On the surface, this sounded ok until we found out last week that the match would be pay to view, ugh.

I think pay to view is the worst concept for golf.  Just look at what Sky Sports has done for golf in England, to be able to watch PGA Tour and European Tour events you have to pay somewhere between $30 to $40 a month.  The same with the British Open, you want to watch this major in England you have to pay for it on Sky, again something that many people aren’t doing.  This concept sounded OK 20 years ago, but now people don’t care for golf.  We have seen in England less popularity of golf and something that has become a problem.  Even the European Tour is looking to figure out a way around this, and it’s tough.

So do we want this problem in our country?  If this becomes a success, look for more and more of this coming to the PGA Tour.  Right now the PGA Tour has been trying to sell it’s early Thursday and Friday coverage for a fee, with the contracts coming up in the next couple of years would the Tour think this is a new source of revenue?  Of course, the folks at Augusta National would never do it, no matter how much money they get.  They pride themselves in showcasing the Masters and would never do anything to make more money but risk losing eyeballs.  But the USGA, we saw their cash grab with Fox and most of the golfing public miss not having NBC Sports do USGA events.  And we know that the R&A would go for it, they have gone for the Sky Sports, and we are seeing fewer people watch the British Open.

But wait, maybe there is an answer if these folks would get creative.  The reason that the Tiger/Phil match is on pay to view is that no network was willing to pay the money.  In the old days of the Skins Game, IMG would buy a five-hour window on a network and fund the production costs.  They would bring revenue by selling the advertising time but now putting on something like this has become very costly.

But there is a way to possibly cover the cost of having this on TV, gambling.

It will take a creative company that would work out a way that people can watch the telecast and at the same time have several forms of gambling during the telecast.  Already Tiger and Phil say they will be making side bets during the show, how great would it be to allow people to gamble with the players, with real money.  Not only could you bet the outcome of the match, but you could also have side bets like on who wins each hole.  You could also bet on a tough shot, if a player gets up and down, there are hundreds of different sceneries to bet on.  In checking this could be done except for about a ten states like Nevada, Arizona, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Iowa, Louisiana, Alabama, Hawaii, and Delaware (you would still air it in these areas, they just wouldn’t be able to place bets).  But for the rest of the world, it’s wide open, so you have to think that someone would be able to set this up.  It’s intriguing the future this could be, and it could be used on other sports.  But the important thing is to find some other source of revenue so that we don’t have to pay our hard earn cash on it.  Also think of the ratings bonanza this would create with people watching it to see how all of this works.  With the internet and TV coming together you see stuff like this on America’s Got Talent in which live in a commercial break people can vote people on or off a show.

So if Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson want to be trail-blazers, they would go in this direction and not charge people to watch something that I think would be a financial disaster.

What are your thoughts on this “Pay for View” money grab?

Either give a response below or send me an email at Sal@golfstats.com

Be very interested in what people think of this.

Tournament information:

• This is the 16th annual Dell Technologies Championship. Initially created with the help of IMG, the Tiger Woods Foundation, and the PGA Tour, the Deutsche Bank Championship’s primary goal was to raise money for the Tiger Woods Foundation.
• As the tournament is held over Labor Day weekend, it has the distinction as being the only events on the PGA Tour to conclude on a Monday.
• Though the event lacks history, its short stint on the PGA Tour has produced some monumental happenings. Most notably: the rivalry between Vijay Singh and Tiger Woods. In 2004, Tiger and Vijay battled down to the final hole. Ultimately, Singh’s 69 was enough to give him the tournament title and the World’s Number One ranking, dethroning Woods after five years of dominance.
• In 2006, the rivalry was renewed, and this time, Woods was not to be denied. Singh shot a course record 61 in the third round going into the final round with a three-shot lead over Woods.  Despite shooting a 68, he was still a loser as Woods shot 63 to overcome a three-shot deficit and win the title.
• The 2007 event is also memorable with Phil Mickelson holding off the challenge of Tiger Woods, Arron Oberholser, and Brett Wetterich.
• In 2008 Vijay Singh shot a final round 63 and cruised to a five-shot victory which paved the way for him to win the FedEx Cup.
• 2016 was another memorable event as Rory McIlroy shot a final round 65 to come back from six shots back to win for the second time at TPC Boston.
• Last year Justin Thomas shot 63-66 to beat out Jordan Spieth by three shots.
• Since the start of the FedEx Cup, it’s been the second playoff event.  Of the four, this and the Tour Championship are the only events played each year on the same course.  Over the years, it’s grown a nice following as players love the course, the location and the week.  But with Deutsche Bank leaving in 2016 the event was able to get Dell Technologies to sponsor last year and this year’s event.  But after this year the tournament will cease, but the good news is that TPC Boston will join the rota of the Northern Trust and be played every couple of years.

Course information:

The TPC of Boston was opened in June of 2002; it was formerly used for charcoal production for the jewelry, brick and iron industries as well as lumber for ship construction.  Arnold Palmer designed the course; it is your typical TPC layout, very long and pretty generous off the tee.  There are several doglegs that can be carried by long hitters so again advantage to those that hit it long.  The greens are plentiful, and several have multiple tiers making putting more challenging.  But over the years the course has changed dramatically.

As players matriculate back to Boston each year for the Dell Technologies Championship, they were met with changes made by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon.  In 2009, changes to the green area and mounding around the 2nd hole.  In 2008 players saw changes to the 4th, 7th, and 16th holes.  The changes weren’t as big, mostly cosmetic like mounds being added to the right side of nine.  Also, changes were made to the chipping areas around No. 1 and No. 10 greens. Bunkers also were altered in shape at the fourth and 11th holes. At the latter, a 230-yard par-3, an island of turf was installed in the middle of the sizeable front-right bunker.

The players well received the changes made for the 2007 event, most of them liked making the 4th hole a possible drivable par 4. It’s a step in the right direction because in previous years they have been very lukewarm on the Arnold Palmer design course.

There have been many significant changes to the course year after year, but the course has stayed the same the last couple of years.

Still, the course is for the taking, last year the course played to a 70.78 average and was the 28th toughest of the 50 courses used.  So you can see, you have to go low to survive this week.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Boston.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Boston, based on data from the 2017 Dell Technologies when the course was last used on the PGA Tour and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2018.

The bad news: After 15 years of play this event will end after this year. The choice was made because it was hard to get a full-time sponsor and with the reduced schedule to get the season ended before football starts, this was a tournament in the wrong place at the wrong time meaning it will end.
But things aren’t entirely lost.
Some good news: Despite this event going away, TPC Boston will still hold some of the future FedExCup playoff events. The course will go into the rota of the Northern Trust so that in 2020 and 2022 it will hold the Northern Trust. The rest of the time the event will go to Liberty National and hopefully in future years Ridgewood, Plainfield and possibly Glen Oaks.
So the news for this week: TPC Boston is an Arnold Palmer design that has been reworked by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon. The course has a touch of links-style as it plays firm and fast, but it’s still a course for long hitters as in its 15-year history players like Adam Scott, Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Charley Hoffman, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas have won on it. So with that, it tells you something, which all of these players hit it long, so TPC Boston is for those that bomb it. On the other end of the spectrum, short hitters like Chris Kirk, Olin Browne, Webb Simpson and Steve Stricker have won, mainly because of their impressive around the green game. Still, the focus should be on long hitters and ball strikers having a significant advantage. Of the 15 champions, nine of them ranked in the top-ten in greens hit, so if a long hitter is on his game, he does have a significant advantage. So should you stop reading right now and pick Dustin Johnson? Probably not, if we have learned one lesson since the years of Tiger Woods dominating every event, there are a bunch of guys that can win. Example of that is Bryson DeChambeau who won last week at Ridgewood. Or Brooks Koepka who won the PGA Championship or even Dustin who won the Canadian Open last month.
So that doesn’t mean to hand any one of them the trophy right now, as we saw with Jordan Spieth, good putting could get in the way of Johnson, DeChambeau or Koepka walking away with the title. One thing historically about TPC Boston you have never seen a poor putter win here, the greens are 6,000 square feet and have a lot of undulation in them so look for a player who is in the zone inside of ten feet, like Spieth.
Another aspect of TPC Boston, scores are generally low, and the big reason is the par 4s. In 2016 they averaged 3.97 as only seven courses had easier par 4s. Of the 11 par 4s, five of them play under par, and the toughest par 4 is the 6th hole playing at a 4.107 clip which means with all of the holes on the PGA Tour it’s the 253rd hardest of the 900 holes played in 2016. Last year the par 4s played a bit tougher, averaging 4.02 which ranked T-31st. Now on the other realm of the spectrum, the par 5s are some of the toughest on the PGA Tour. In 2016 they played to a 4.79 scoring average and ranked 11th, while they ranked T-6th on tour in 2015. Last year they played to a 4.74 average and was the 13th hardest.
The bad news in past events this time of year in the Boston area, storms off the Atlantic have caused havoc. This year storms will play havoc, mostly storms coming up from the southwest. Look for terrible weather on Sunday and Monday the rest of the week is going to be perfect with cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s on Friday and Saturday. Remember this event ends on Monday, not Sunday which is the norm.

So in looking at our four categories, our first is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. This is going to be the most critical item again since a player that hits it long, straight and then hits a lot of greens won’t be beaten, look at last year’s winner Justin Thomas he was 1st in strokes gained Tee-to-Green. Looking at the 2016 winner Rory McIlroy was 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green.

Our second stat is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green, because not only is scrambling essential but there are a lot of greenside bunkers so getting them up and down will be significant. Last year TPC Boston was 28th in scrambling meaning that the field did well in this stat, so players will have to do well in this. As for last year’s winner Justin Thomas, he was 6th in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green. Even in scrambling last year’s winner Thomas proved the point as he was 1st in scrambling.
Our third stat is putting inside of 10 feet, yes this will be substantial because the greens have lot’s of undulation so making those putts in between five to ten feet is essential. Last year the field ranked 12th in putting inside ten feet while last year’s winner was 6th in that stat. Our fourth category is par 4 average, last year it ranked T-31st in this stat which means that players need to play the par 4s low to win. Last year Thomas played them the best at 14 under par which tied with Henrik Stenson as the all-time best at TPC Boston.

This is the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, so those toward the bottom need to play well or sit out a month while the playoffs continue. But at TPC Boston, the course will be for the taking of many of the players, and I can see some excellent scoring.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: A combination of driving distance, accuracy and greens hit this will tell you who plays the best from tee to green which will be important this week.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: A combination of sand saves and scrambling to see who gets it up and down saving par the most.

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Par 4 Average: How players do on par 4s, who plays them the best.

Of the 98 players in the field, 98 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2018:

Here is a link to the other 88 players in the Dell Technologies Championship with PGA Tour stats for 2018.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,600
• Justin Thomas – $11,400
• Brooks Koepka – $11,000
• Rory McIlroy – $10,600
• Jason Day – $10,400
• Jordan Spieth – $10,000
• Tiger Woods – $9,700
• Adam Scott – $9,400
• Justin Rose – $9,300
• Jon Rahm – $9,100
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,000
• Hideki Matsuyama – $8,900

This is one of my favorite weeks, the course is suitable for boomers, and you will get the best bombers on tour to play this week.  First off is Dustin Johnson at $11,600.  You would think he would be top on your list, but historically it’s been Helter Skelter for Johnson.  Now, this isn’t a scientific way of doing this, but when he finished T-8th in 2016 and T-4th in 2012, he wasn’t playing that great leading into Dell.  Last year he won the week before and finished T-18th, in 2014 when he finished T-44th, he played good the two events he played leading to the Dell.  So I am going to take a lesson from a Seinfeld episode I just watched called “the Opposite” in which George returns from the beach and decides that every decision that he has ever made has been wrong and that his life is the exact opposite of what it should be. George convinces himself that “if every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.” George then resolves to start doing the complete opposite of what he would typically do and his life is great.  So every instinct tells me not to take Dustin this week, so I am doing the opposite and taking Dustin for the week.  I am doing the same with Justin Thomas at $11,400; I am not taking him because my first instinct said to make him even though he is playing good right now.

One thing I won’t do is go against my instinct on Brooks Koepka at $11,000.  Even though he has never played well in this event, think this is the week that will change, he is too good of a player not to win this event on this course.  The same with Rory McIlroy at $10,600, yes he missed the cut last year but think things will be different this week.  Jason Day at $10,600 is a tough choice, but I have to say no to him, yes he will make the cut but won’t give you enough firepower to do well at his cost.  As for Jordan Spieth at $10,000, I think he is close and will do very well this week, so he is a go.  The same with Tiger Woods at $9,700.  Yes the price is high, and yes his putter isn’t that sharp but this course is perfect for him, and he has had some good times on it to take him.  Adam Scott is another person I will make at $9,400, he loves this course, and he thinks he is going to win so take him. Justin Rose at $9,300 is hit or miss, I would say pass on him for this week.  Jon Rahm is reasonably priced at $9,100, and I would say he is a big take on this course.  The same with Patrick Cantlay at $9,000 he will do fine this week.  As for Hideki Matsuyama at $8,900 I say no, he is playing better but won’t give you the points you need for the price.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,800 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

First up is Tony Finau at $8,800.  Now before you jump, yes he makes a lot of birdies and eagles, but he struggles on the course, in ten rounds he has just four under par rounds when he should have 8 or 9.  So take a pass on him I hate to say.  Another big choice comes with Bryson DeChambeau at the reasonable rate of $8,700.  Frankly, it sounds too good to be true, but DeChambeau was T-30th last year and in his previous two wins doesn’t do that well after so he is probably another person to take a pass on.  Tommy Fleetwood at $8,500 is also appealing, and even though he hasn’t played that great and never has played at TPC Boston, I would take a gamble on him.  One guy that you will want to take is Patrick Reed at $8,400.  His record has been excellent as he finished T-6th last year, T-5th the year before and T-4th in 2015 so he does play the course well, so he should be an early pick.  Another good pick is Phil Mickelson at $8,200, he has an excellent record at TPC Boston and should do well.  Marc Leishman at $8,000 is another of those guys you may want on a team, he has made cuts, and despite not being in the top ten, he is due and plays well at TPC Boston.  Another high pick will be Paul Casey at $7,900 he was T-4th last year and 2nd the year before.  Brandt Snedeker is someone that looks good at $7,800 but remember last week he withdrew on Thursday leaving a bad taste in a lot of mouths.  He hasn’t played well of late at TPC Boston so best to say no to Brandt.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Dell Technologies

I am amazed to see Matt Kuchar and Zach Johnson at $7,500.  Yes, they haven’t been in contention, but they have made cuts and lot’s of birdies, so they are very safe bets for this week.  One bet to make is Ian Poulter at $7,400, he has played great of late, and his record is ok at TPC Boston, so take him.  Same with Charley Hoffman at $7,300.  How about Cameron Smith at $7,000 after playing well last week in New Jersey.  Smith is a very streaking player and should continue to play well.  Also, think that Kevin Kisner at $7,000 is low and someone to think about along with Jamie Lovemark at $6,900.  So as you see there are a lot of great buys this week for you.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Dell Technologies Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

• Now in past years, it was evident that this course was a long hitters haven.  Last year we had Justin Thomas, in 2016 Rory McIlroy and in 2015 we had Rickie Fowler win, all players that hit it long.  In 2014 & ’13 Chris Kirk and Henrik Stenson won, both who are in the middle of all driving distance stats in 2012, we had Rory McIlroy, in 2010 we had Charley Hoffman.  In 2008, it was Vijay Singh while in 2007, it was Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2006, all very long hitters  Still don’t rule out the short hitters, look at 2009 winner Steve Stricker, the same with Webb Simpson in 2011.  But he isn’t the only one, the 2005 champion Olin Browne is one of the shorter hitters on tour and 2003 runner-up Rocco Mediate is also short.  In the same breath, it’s safe to say that accuracy doesn’t pay on this course.  In its 15 years of being played, of the 180 players that have finished in the top ten of the tournament, only 44 have been in the top ten in driving accuracy.  One more key driving accuracy stat, of the 50 courses used on the PGA Tour it ranked 33rd in driving accuracy that means that you can be wild on this course.  Or to put it another way, this has become a bombers course.
• Looking at the stats from its 15-year history, look for those with sharp iron games to produce the best score.  Look for a smart player that doesn’t attack the holes but plays placement golf to win.  Of the 15 winners, three led the greens hit category (winner Henrik Stenson led in 2013, Vijay Singh in 2004 & Adam Scott in 2003) while the first eight of nine winners were in the top ten.  Last year Justin Thomas was T-13th while in 2016 Rory McIlroy was T-18th in greens hit.
• Since the event doesn’t start until Friday, players will have an extra day to get used to the course.  Look for those that are beginning to practice on Tuesday to rule the roost.
• The greens are 6,000 square feet, which is about average on the PGA Tour. They have a lot of undulation in them, and that could be one of the reasons why winners haven’t dominated the putting stats.
• Looking for that one stat that jumps up and grabs you?  Par 4 average is the key here, TPC Boston is one of the easiest in par 4s.  Last year it was T-31st with a 4.02 average in 2016 it was T-43rd with a 3.97 average on its par 4s so look for players that play well on par 4s.  Last year Thomas was 14 under, McIlroy was even par, in 2015 Rickie Fowler was 9 under, Chris Kirk was 6 under on the Par 4s, in 2013 Henrik Stenson was the best playing them in 14 under par.
• Interesting to note that Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas won the Dell Technologies the month after taking the PGA Championship.  It’s also interesting to note that Dell Technologies winners Woods, Singh and Adam Scott have also been runner-up here.  As for this year’s PGA Champion Brooks Koepka, you have to think he is chomping at the bit for Friday’s opening round.

Scrambling is a significant stat and one to look at.  Here is the rank of Dell Technologies Championship winners between 2007-2014.

Year    Winner                Scrambling (rank)

•  2017    Justin Thomas    95.24% (1st)
•  2016    Rory McIlroy    63.16% (41st)
•  2015    Rickie Fowler    78.95% (1st)
•  2014    Chris Kirk    80.77% (4)
•  2013    Henrik Stenson    81.82% (T-6)
•  2012    Rory McIlroy    70.83% (10)
•  2011    Webb Simpson    76.00% (5)
•  2010    Charley Hoffman    82.35% (2)
•  2009     Steve Stricker    73.91% (10)
•  2008    Vijay Singh    76.92% (4)
•  2007    Phil Mickelson    86.36% (1)
• Every winner in the playoff era finished in the top 10 in scrambling at TPC Boston except for last year’s winner Rory McIlroy.

Lastly, Weather can sometimes be a problem with storm systems coming up the Atlantic.  This year the weather is not very good for Sunday and Monday’s final day,  the rest of the week is going to be perfect with cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s.