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BlogBMW Championship Preview and Picks

BMW Championship

Sept 6th – 9th, 2018

Aronimink Golf Club

Newtown Square, Pa.

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,267

Purse: $9 million

with $1,620,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Marc Leishman

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

Of the 69 players in the field, 58 of them are in the top-100 of the Official World Rankings.  The field includes 41 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with all top-ten players in the field: #1 Dustin Johnson, #2 Brooks Koepka, #3 Justin Thomas, #4 Justin Rose, #5 Jon Rahm, #6 Francesco Molinari, #7 Bryson DeChambeau, #8 Rory McIlroy, #9 Rickie Fowler, #10 Jordan Spieth.  From 11 to 25 there are 15 of the 15 with #11 Jason Day, #12 Tommy Fleetwood, #13 Bubba Watson, #14 Patrick Reed, #15 Alex Noren, #16 Paul Casey, #17 Tony Finau, #18 Hideki Matsuyama, #19 Webb Simpson, #20 Xander Schauffele, #21 Marc Leishman, #22 Henrik Stenson, #23 Patrick Cantlay, #24 Phil Mickelson and #25 Tyrrell Hatton.

Between 26 and 50 there are 17 of the 25, they are #26 Tiger Woods, #27 Kyle Stanley, #28 Kevin Kisner, #29 Rafa Cabrera Bello, #32 Cameron Smith, #33 Ian Poulter, #34 Brian Harman, #35 Louis Oosthuizen, #39 Adam Scott, #41 Gary Woodland, #42 Kevin Na, #46 Byeong Hun An, #47 Pat Perez, #48 Brandt Snedeker, #49 Zach Johnson and #50 Luke List.

Last year there was 39 players from the top-50.

The field includes 69 of the top-70 from the FedEx Cup rankings.  Daniel Berger decided to withdraw on Monday.

The field includes seven past champions: Marc Leishman (2017), Dustin Johnson (2016 & ’10), Jason Day (2015), Zach Johnson (2013), Rory McIlory (2012), Justin Rose (2011), and Tiger Woods (2009, ’07, ’03 and 1999 – all in Chicago).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the BMW field is our performance chart listed by the average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the BMW field in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the BMW field.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the BMW Championship

Player Dell Technologies Northern Trust Wyndham Champ. PGA Champ. WGC Bridgestone Invitational Barracuda Canadian Open Porsche European British Open Barbasol John Deere Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau
(425.67 pts)
Win
(198)
Win
(198)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
30
(20)
DNP DNP T13
(24.67)
T51
(0)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP
Brooks Koepka
(378.67 pts)
T12
(57)
T8
(75)
DNP Win
(176)
5
(70)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T39
(7.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Tony Finau
(359.33 pts)
T4
(120)
2
(150)
DNP T42
(10.67)
T10
(40)
DNP T37
(8.67)
DNP T9
(30)
DNP DNP DNP
Dustin Johnson
(343 pts)
T7
(82.5)
T11
(58.5)
DNP T27
(30.67)
T3
(90)
DNP Win
(88)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Justin Thomas
(319.33 pts)
T24
(39)
T8
(75)
DNP T6
(80)
Win
(132)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Cameron Smith
(299.67 pts)
3
(135)
T3
(135)
DNP T56
(0)
23
(27)
DNP DNP DNP 78
(0)
DNP DNP T42
(2.67)
Justin Rose
(258 pts)
2
(150)
CUT
(-15)
DNP T19
(41.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T2
(66.67)
DNP DNP T9
(15)
C.T. Pan
(251.33 pts)
T4
(120)
T60
(0)
T2
(100)
DNP DNP T11
(26)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP
Adam Scott
(248.5 pts)
T49
(1.5)
T5
(105)
DNP 3
(120)
T57
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T17
(22)
DNP DNP DNP
Tiger Woods
(246.33 pts)
T24
(39)
T40
(15)
DNP 2
(133.33)
T31
(19)
DNP DNP DNP T6
(40)
DNP DNP DNP
Hideki Matsuyama
(232.5 pts)
T4
(120)
T15
(52.5)
T11
(39)
T35
(20)
T39
(11)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Patrick Cantlay
(230 pts)
T24
(39)
T8
(75)
DNP T27
(30.67)
T6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Webb Simpson
(227.17 pts)
T49
(1.5)
T28
(33)
T2
(100)
T19
(41.33)
T24
(26)
DNP DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Billy Horschel
(213.17 pts)
WD
(-7.5)
T3
(135)
T11
(39)
T35
(20)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP DNP
Tommy Fleetwood
(205.33 pts)
T24
(39)
T20
(45)
DNP T35
(20)
T14
(36)
DNP T6
(40)
DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Rafael Cabrera-Bello
(204.5 pts)
T7
(82.5)
T60
(0)
T11
(39)
T10
(53.33)
T17
(33)
DNP DNP DNP 74
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Brandt Snedeker
(197.83 pts)
T31
(28.5)
DNP Win
(132)
T42
(10.67)
DNP DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Francesco Molinari
(197.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-15)
DNP T6
(80)
T39
(11)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP
Tyrrell Hatton
(192.33 pts)
T12
(57)
T20
(45)
DNP T10
(53.33)
T28
(22)
DNP DNP DNP T51
(0)
DNP DNP T9
(15)
Rory McIlroy
(185 pts)
T12
(57)
DNP DNP T50
(1.33)
T6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP T2
(66.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Kyle Stanley
(180.67 pts)
T12
(57)
T28
(33)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP T39
(7.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Jordan Spieth
(175.17 pts)
T12
(57)
T25
(37.5)
DNP T12
(50.67)
T60
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T9
(30)
DNP DNP DNP
Gary Woodland
(173.67 pts)
T24
(39)
T48
(3)
DNP T6
(80)
T17
(33)
DNP T22
(18.67)
DNP T67
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Kevin Kisner
(160.67 pts)
T24
(39)
T73
(0)
DNP T12
(50.67)
T39
(11)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T2
(66.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Aaron Wise
(148.33 pts)
T69
(0)
T5
(105)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
T6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Phil Mickelson
(136.17 pts)
T12
(57)
T15
(52.5)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
T24
(26)
DNP DNP DNP T24
(17.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Abraham Ancer
(133.5 pts)
T7
(82.5)
CUT
(-15)
T24
(26)
DNP DNP DNP 5
(46.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Jason Day
(133.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T20
(45)
DNP T19
(41.33)
T10
(40)
DNP DNP DNP T17
(22)
DNP DNP DNP
Jon Rahm
(128.5 pts)
T43
(10.5)
CUT
(-15)
DNP T4
(106.67)
T17
(33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Ryan Palmer
(124.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T5
(105)
DNP DNP DNP T26
(16)
T22
(18.67)
DNP DNP DNP T77
(0)
DNP
Andrew Putnam
(122.83 pts)
T49
(1.5)
T78
(0)
DNP T59
(0)
DNP Win
(88)
T8
(33.33)
DNP DNP DNP 79
(0)
DNP
Patrick Reed
(122.33 pts)
T35
(22.5)
T25
(37.5)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
T28
(22)
DNP DNP T9
(30)
T28
(14.67)
DNP DNP T23
(9)
Rickie Fowler
(118.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T12
(50.67)
T17
(33)
DNP DNP DNP T28
(14.67)
DNP DNP T6
(20)
Jason Kokrak
(114 pts)
T24
(39)
T40
(15)
T57
(0)
T19
(41.33)
DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Byeong Hun An
(110.17 pts)
T31
(28.5)
T40
(15)
DNP T56
(0)
T57
(0)
DNP T2
(66.67)
DNP T51
(0)
DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the BMW Championship

Player Dell Technologies Northern Trust Wyndham Champ. PGA Champ. WGC Bridgestone Invitational Barracuda Canadian Open Porsche European British Open Barbasol John Deere Scottish Open
Brendan Steele
(-51.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-13.33)
T60
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T47
(2)
DNP DNP DNP
Chesson Hadley
(-30 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T56
(0)
T45
(5)
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T72
(0)
DNP
Charles Howell III
(-21.67 pts)
T58
(0)
CUT
(-15)
DNP T71
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Scott Piercy
(-16.17 pts)
DQ
(-7.5)
T48
(3)
T45
(5)
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Andrew Landry
(-5.33 pts)
T58
(0)
T76
(0)
DNP T50
(1.33)
T57
(0)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T55
(0)
DNP
Brian Harman
(-2.17 pts)
T49
(1.5)
T48
(3)
DNP T71
(0)
62
(0)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Patton Kizzire
(5.67 pts)
T71
(0)
T60
(0)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
T31
(19)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP
Beau Hossler
(9.17 pts)
T35
(22.5)
T60
(0)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T75
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Ted Potter, Jr.
(17 pts)
T66
(0)
T40
(15)
DNP T71
(0)
T48
(2)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Austin Cook
(21.33 pts)
T62
(0)
T60
(0)
DNP T50
(1.33)
T53
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T28
(14.67)
DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

For the first time since 2008, Bryson DeChambeau has won the first two legs of the FedExCup playoffs.  When Vijay Singh did the same in 2008, he basically won the FedExCup by just showing up for the remaining two events.  The PGA Tour made sure that if that ever happened again, the same result wouldn’t happen.  They did that by overhauling the point system by resetting the points before the Tour Championship so even if DeChambeau wins the BMW he won’t be the winner of the FedExCup playoffs.  Is this fair, no but the PGA Tour needed to redo the system to protect the Tour Championship, just in case someone beat the odds and ran the tables by winning the first three events.

No matter what happens this week in Philadelphia, DeChambeau will be the number 1 seed at the Tour Championship and have the best shot and winning the whole FedExCup.

So basically by DeChambeau playing this week really means nothing, other than the million and a half dollars that is given if you win.  So for DeChambeau, this makes it tough on how he wants to play this week.  In 2008 after winning the first two, Singh finished T-44th at the BMW Championship and T-22nd at the Tour Championship and still won the FedExCup.

So the question for DeChambeau, does he go hard this week to try and win three in a row and then hope after the week off that he has his game sharp in Atlanta?  Frankly, maybe it would have been the best to take this week off and relax and be fresh in 2 weeks for the start of the Tour Championship.  No matter what, next year with only 3 events the system will be reworked and we will have a new system in place.

As I finish this preview we are a few hours away from Jim Furyk to pick 3 of his 4 Ryder Cup wildcard players.  Frankly, have to think this process will be easy, he will probably pick Bryson DeChambeau then Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.  After DeChambeau the choices are tough, after Tony Finau, it’s down to Webb Simpson, Brandt Snedeker and Billy Horschel they are the only real choice.  So look for DeChambeau, Woods, and Mickelson getting picked with Tony Finau getting the last spot unless something radical happens.

P.S. Guess picking DeChambeau, Woods and Mickelson were easy, because those are the players Jim Furyk picked.

Tournament information:
  • The Western Open was originally founded and run by the Western Golf Association. First played in 1899, the event is the third oldest professional golf tournament (U.S. Open and British Open are older). Like the other golf tournaments of the time, the Western Open was dominated by visiting professionals from England and Scotland. In its early decades, it was widely regarded as a major championship
  • From 1899 until 1961, the Western Open was played at a variety of locations including Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco to name a few. Beginning in 1962, however, the Western Open settled into the Chicago area. It was hosted at different local courses in and around the city.
  • In 1974, the Butler National Golf Club in Oak Brook, became the annual venue for the Western Open. The Butler National Golf Club remained the host site until shortly after the 1990 tournament when the PGA Tour adopted a policy of holding events only at clubs that allowed minorities to be members.
  • This resulted in Butler National being replaced by the Cog Hill Golf & Country Club in Lemont, Illinois. The Dubsdread Course at Cog Hill played host to the Western Open from 1991 to 2007. With the advent of the new FedEx Cup Series, the PGA Tour decided a change of name was in order. The event name change to the BMW Championship.  Along with the change it was decided to move the tournament around. In 2008 for the first time since 1962, the event was not played in the Chicago area as it moved to St. Louis for the year. In 2012 it went to Indianapolis, Indiana, in 2013 it went for the first time to Conway Farms, site of last year’s BMW Championship.  In 2014 it was played at Cherry Hills in Denver, going back to Conway Farms in 2015, Crooked Stick in 2016 and Conway Farms for the 2017 BMW Championship.  After playing this year at Aronimink, the BMW Championship goes back to Medinah’s famed Number three course.
Course information:
  • Aronimink Golf Club
  • Newtown Square, Pa.
  • 7,267 yards     Par 35-35–70

Aronimink is one of those hidden gems which on a couple of weeks notice could hold a major championship on it.  The club has hosted the 1962 PGA Championship, the 1977 U.S. Amateur, and the 2003 Senior PGA Championship.  On the PGA Tour, it held the 2010 & ’11 AT&T National  It will be the home to the PGA Championship in 2027

The club got it’s roots in 1897 as the Belmont Golf Association and was one of the four founding members of the Golf Association of Philadephia.  The Club’s first professional was John Shippen, who as a half black, half Shinnecock Indian was in contention in the 1896 U.S. Open.  The club also hired a kid called Johnny McDermott as a caddy, the kid went on to win the 1911 and ’12 U.S. Open.

The club moved to a couple of different spots and in 1926 purchased 300 acres of land and brought in Donald Ross to build them a new course.  Folklore had it that Ross was not very happy that another Philadelphia club rejected his design and so he wanted to make Aronimink the best course in the area.  The course opened in 1928 to great acclaim and even Ross didn’t realize it’s greatness until a visit back in 1948 when right before his death he came back and said that he did build a masterpiece.

Over the years other architects like A.W. Tillinghast, Dick Wilson, and Robert Trent Jones tinkered with the course, but overall the original Ross design stayed in tack.  At the end of the millennium club officials realized the mistakes that were made by others tinkering with the course and decided to hire Ron Prichard, who was a Ross disciple, to completely restore the course to its original 1927 design.  He finished his work in 2002 before the Senior PGA Championship.

With 75 bunkers and numerous slopes, valleys, and doglegs, the course tests a player’s patience and endurance. Ross meant Aronimink to be a “supreme test” for the best golfers. From the championship tees, Aronimink’s course is 7,237 yards long and plays to a par of 70. With the restoration in 2002, Donald Ross’ Aronimink plays as he intended it to. As he said in 1948, two decades after the course opened, “I intended to make this my masterpiece, but not until today did I realize I built better than I knew.”

Aronimink’s opening hole is one of the most memorable in golf. The intimidating first hole plunges down into a valley, then rises steeply, playing long and uphill to a well-guarded undulating green.

On the front nine, there are a number of challenging doglegs, particularly the par four #7. Although not a long hole, the approach must carry a yawning bunker guarding the front of a green with several difficult pin locations. Then there is #8, perhaps the hardest par three on the course, playing 237 yards downhill to a narrow green bisected by a large mound.

The back nine Aronimink is just as demanding with a great tenth hole, a 454-yard par four that is considered by many the most demanding on the course. The narrow fairway is guarded by a bunker on the right and deep rough on the left. A successful approach shot must avoid the water hazard protecting the front left of the sharply terraced green.

In 2003 John Jacobs birdied the last two holes to win the Senior PGA Championship. The 17th is a 187-yard par three. An errant tee shot often finds the lake guarding the green. The finishing hole is a 436-yard uphill par four, requires a precise tee shot and the approach shot is to a winding and sloped green with numerous challenging pin locations.

When the PGA of America decided to hold the PGA Championship in 2027 and the 2020 KPMG Women’s PGA Championship one of the reasons is the restoration that the club is going through.  They decided in 2016 to let architect Gil Hanse transform Aronimink to the way Donald Ross designed and built it in 1928.  Thanks to a research project that found aerial images from the course taken after the course were opened 90 years ago along with a film of Ross on the course during the building, Hanse redid the fairways to make them wider.  He added 18 new tees and enlarged the greens along with adding 100 additional bunkers.  So the course now has 176 bunkers and they are set in clusters which were typical for a Donald Ross design course.  The one thing that he didn’t do was add any yardage  So for those that played the course in 2010 and ’11 for the AT&T National, the course will look totally different and play differently making it more competitive.

Something that could be important:

Here are those that played at Aronimink in 2010 and playing this week:

Player in 2010   Place Score             To Par Score

Justin Rose           Win 69-64-67-70       -10                270

Marc Leishman    T7 71-70-67-68        -4                276

Jason Day            T9 66-68-72-71        -3                277

Brian Gay           T16 67-70-71-71        -1                279

Brandt Snedeker   T16 71-70-69-69        -1                279

Webb Simpson   T41 72-70-68-73       +3                283

Tiger Woods          T46 73-70-70-71       +4               284

Charles Howell III T62 71-72-72-73       +8              288

Pat Perez          T62 74-68-76-70        +8               288

Dustin Johnson CUT 71-74-0-0        +5               145

Rickie Fowler CUT 69-77-0-0        +6              146

Scott Piercy   CUT 78-70-0-0        +8              148

 

Here are those that played at Aronimink in 2011 and playing this week:

Player in 2011  Place Score        To Par  Score

Adam Scott              T3 66-71-66-68         -9          271

Charles Howell III    T3 68-68-69-66 -9          271

Webb Simpson      T8 69-70-64-70         -7          273

Rickie Fowler     T13 68-69-64-74         -5          275

Justin Rose            T15 70-72-65-69  -4           276

Patrick Cantlay       T20 70-69-71-67          -3            277

Kyle Stanley             T34 67-69-71-73          E           280

Pat Perez             T38 68-74-70-69         +1           281

Gary Woodland     T47 69-71-74-68         +2           282

Kevin Na            T57 69-69-71-75        +4           284

Peter Uihlein   T70 73-69-71-75        +8          288

Brian Gay          CUT 69-75-0-0       +4             144

Chez Reavie          CUT 72-76-0-0            +8          148

Billy Horschel CUT 77-73-0-0      +10          150

Marc Leishman CUT 80-70-0-0       +10          150

  • As you can see, Justin Rose won in 2010 and was T-15th the following year
  • Webb Simpson was T-41st in 2010 and T-8th the following year
  • Charles Howell III was T-62nd in 2010 and T-3rd the following year
  • Pat Perez was T-62nd in 2010 and T-38th the following year.
  • Rickie Fowler missed the cut in 2010 and was T-13th in 2011.
  • Marc Leishman also played twice, T-7th in 2010 and missed the cut in 2011

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

  • Dustin Johnson – $11,600
  • Justin Rose – $11,200
  • Justin Thomas – $10,700
  • Brooks Koepka – $10,500
  • Rory McIlroy – $10,300
  • Bryce DeChambeau – $10,000
  • Hideki Matsuyama – $9,700
  • Tony Finau – $9,500
  • Jordan Spieth – $9,400
  • Jason Day – $9,300
  • Tiger Woods – $9,200
  • Rickie Fowler – $9,000
  • Jon Rahm – $8,900

Ok, this will be a different week because there is no cut this week so the point total will be higher.  Again you have to make major decisions on high price players like Dustin Johnson at $11,600, Justin Thomas at $10,700, Rory McIlroy at $10,300, Jordan Spieth at $9,400 and Jason Day at $9,300.  With the commination of the PGA Championship, Northern Trust, and Dell none of these players have been in the top-five so since there price is so high I would say take a pass on them.  The course will be tough and won’t be a birdie feast like TPC Boston, so look for those U.S. style players like Justin Rose who is at $11,200.  He has not only won at Aronimink in 2010 but was T-15th the following year so I would say he is worth the cost.  Also, think that Brook Koepka at $10,500 will be worth it since the course will be a bit like Bellerive.  Also like Hideki Matsuyama at $9,700, the same with Tony Finau at $9,500.  Tiger Woods is again a mystery, he is high at $9,200 but it’s only a matter of time before he really wins.  Now the big question is what to do with Bryce DeChambeau at $10,000.  This is a weird week for him, a win doesn’t help him win the FedExCup and he needs to relax and get ready for the Tour Championship and Ryder Cup.  I say take a pass on him, yes I said it last week and it backfired, but I can’t see him winning again.  I would also say take a pass on Rickie Fowler at $9,000, we really don’t know about his injuries which could be a problem.  Last is Jon Rahm at $8,900 I say take a pass on him.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,800 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

First off is Adam Scott at $8,700, like him he is still playing well and Aronimink is his type of course.  We talk about him and pick him just about every time and this week is no different. Patrick Cantlay at $8,500 he usually gives good value for your dollar and he is a good pick.  Cantlay has played at Aronimink and was T-20th in his first year on tour in 2011.  Webb Simpson at $8,100 is another good choice, he has a good track record at Aronimink.  Also, like Billy Horschel at $8,000 on this course, he was T-3rd at the Northern Trust on a course like this and was T-11th at the Donald Ross course at the Wyndham.  Last week we talked about Cameron Smith who is at $7,800 and it’s a great price.  As we said last week he is good in streaks and he is in the middle of one now.  Also, a great price is Brandt Snedeker at $7,700, remember he is playing a Donald Ross course, like the one he won on 3 weeks ago.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the BMW Championship

Emiliano Grillo is $7,400 and is great on good courses, he was T-7th last week.  Have to say if you take Pat Perez at $6,800 he will be good to you  One other cheap guy is Peter Uihlein at $6,800.  He played well last week in Boston.  But the 2 biggest bargains that you can’t pass up on is C.T. Pan at $6,900 and Brice Garnett at $6,300.  First for Pan, his good play stated with a T-11th at the Barracuda Championship, the then finished T-2nd at the Wyndham (A Donald Ross Course), T-60th at the Northern Trust and T-4th last week at Dell.  Since the Wells Fargo he has played in 13 events and finished not only in the top-4 in the two I mentioned but has finished in the top-25 in 6 of his last 10 starts.  Now for Garnett it’s not as good, he has made the cut in 3 of his last 4 starts but was T-12th last week at Dell.  Garnett at $6,300 is the lowest price I have ever endorsed in this column.

 

Here are some of the secrets that it will take to play well this week at the BMW International:

Key stat for the winner:

  • This course is one of those gems that players like Tiger, Phil, Rory, and Jordan should enjoy.  It takes a lot of good shotmaking and maneuvering of the ball to play well at Aronimink.  It’s one of those courses that you have to think each shot out and make sure like a chess game that you’re a move ahead of things.  Placement off the tee is very important, the rough it deep and penalizing.  The same on the greens, you have to place them on the right side of the putting surface and if you miss the greens look for a tough shot either from greenside rough or deep bunkers.  On most courses, bunkers are players friends, something that is easy to get out of, but that isn’t the case at Aronimink, the bunkers are deep and very difficult to get the ball close.
  • If you want to see who can win, just look at the winners at courses like Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village, Colonial, Sedgefield or even a modern course like Bay Hill.  I would almost bet the farm that whoever wins this week, will also have a title from one of those courses, just like a Justin Rose.
  • Experience at Aronimink will be a big help, look for players that have been in this event the in 2010 and ’11, they have some great knowledge.
  • Hitting greens will be at a premium, just like in a U.S. Open hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week.
  • Look for good putters to have a significant advantage because Aronimink’s undulated greens should be dried out with no significant rain in the forecast.
  • Also, the winner will be a good scrambler.  It’s going to be impossible to hit every green and for those that can get it up and down, they will be rewarded.

Who to watch for at the BMW Championship

Best Bets:

Justin Rose

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T2 T24 T13 35 T33 T16 Win T21 T5 T19

Has too good of a record at Aronimink including a win in 2010.

Brooks Koepka

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T12 T32 T49

He is good on tough, tight courses

Jordan Spieth

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T7 9 T13 T8 T16

His putting has come around and he is close to having it all at 100%.

Best of the rest:

Bryce DeChambeau

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
First time playing in this event

He is playing way too good not to pick him high.

Hideki Matsuyama

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T47 T24 T7 T20

Close to returning to his winning ways.

Tony Finau

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T7 T66 T47

Seems to be putting things together and maybe take it to the next level.

Cameron Smith

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T12

Guy is on a streak that will help him play very well.

Webb Simpson

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T9 T64 T53 T24 T51 5 T61

Has a good record on Donald Ross courses

Solid contenders

Dustin Johnson

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T33 Win T7 T62 T6 T65 Win T30

Guy is not playing in the winning ways he has done in the past.

Patrick Cantlay

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T9

He seems to be the most consistent player on tour this week.

Rory McIlroy

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T58 T42 T4 T8 T59 Win T37

Said he would win before the Ryder Cup, he is running out of events to accomplish that feat.

Tiger Woods

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T11 T4 T15 Win Win T2

Have to say he has been close and so far away in other events. Sense that this is a big month for him, would really like to go to France as a winner this year.

 

Long shots that could come through:

Billy Horschel

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
62 T10 T32 Win T18

Guy also plays well on Donald Ross courses, his game is starting to blossom.

Emiliano Grillo

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
T58 T32

Was T-7th last week.

Peter Uihlein

2018 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06
First time playing in this event

Another who seems to be on the verge of a good streak.

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