BlogCIMB Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

When they started the wrap-around schedule in 2014, nobody ever thought that many top players would play in the fall.  The only chance many thought was the WGC-HSBC in China, played the week after the CIMB.  Many questioned this event, again with the thinking that who would fly halfway around the world to play in it.  Last year the Asian part was expanded to three weeks, with the CJ Cup being added.  With a $9.25 million dollar purse and a $1.5 million first-place payday, a lot of players are now playing all three events.  Another reason for players to go is endorsements; many have those with Asian and Japanese companies, gets them over there.

As for playing this week, for those in Napa, it’s a tough go.  It’s 8,500 miles, and with the time change, Malaysia is nine hours ahead of California so, with the 12-hour flight, players would have to leave San Francisco on Sunday night to get to Kuala Lumpur Tuesday night.  So that only leaves a day to get ready.  On top of that, the climate is a tough go as each day will be 90 and very high humidity.  Some of the top players from Napa in Malaysia is last week’s winner Kevin Tway along with those in the playoff Ryan Moore and Brandt Snedeker

This week:

Last week we saw 49 of the 50 recent Web.Com Tour graduates.  This week is a different story as none of the 50 Web graduates are in the field. Only 78 players are in the field, and 10 are of the Asian Tour.  Of the 65 others they were off the FedEx Cup point list for 2018, so in reality, this is a pretty good event for players who don’t mind the hassle on flying halfway around the world for a chance of a $1.2 million dollar payday. If you finish inside the top-20, you get just over $100,000.  Even for those that end at the bottom, the last place pays around $13,000 about the same cost of two business class tickets from the United States.

Course information:

This will be the sixth year that this event is being played at Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club.  The first three years of this event was played at The Mines Resort.  So for many in the field, they won’t have much of an advantage or even see the course before this week.  But for those that played on the European Tour, Kuala Lumpur Golf & C.C. was used in the Maybank Malaysian Open which ended it’s 15 years run in 2013 with Kiradech Aphibarnrat winning.  Kuala Lumpur is very popular, a workhorse on professional tours, in the past it was the site of the LPGA Sime Darby LPGA Malaysia which was won by Cristie Kerr last year.  Unfortunately, due to the change in government funding with a new regime in place ,it was decided not to continue sponsorship of the event.

The course lies just seven miles from downtown Kuala Lumpur and is part of a 36 hole complex that was opened in 1991.  Both the West and East course opened in 1991, and after 2006 Malaysian was played on the west course, it underwent a total redesign.  Ted and Geoff Parslow of design firm E&G Parslow and Associates extensively reconstructed the layout throughout eighteen months. The revamped West course reopened in October 2008 and a couple of months later held the Malaysian Open.

Because of the hot and humid weather, a particular type of grass that many pros haven’t seen is used on the course, Seashore Paspalum.   The grass gives the course the reputation as the best-groomed course in Asia.  The course is very fair, what you see is what you get.  Built on the site of a former rubber estate the course has greens that  don’t have many undulations and average 6,500 square feet.  It’s got over 90 bunkers, and seven lakes come into play on 10 holes but from past events held on it scores will be low, probably in the 15 to 18 under range for this week.  So look for a lot of birdies to be made and lots of good putting.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Kuala Lumpur

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Kuala Lumpur based on data from last year’s CIMB Classic and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2018.
This is the sixth year that the CIMB Classic is being played at TPC Kuala Lumpur. With it played in Malaysia, we don’t have true Shotlink stats to work with, they don’t even measure driving distance so we are stuck with the old-fashion stats of fairways and greens hit, scrambling, number of putts, birdies, and eagles made. The one thing to understand about this week, last year TPC Kuala Lumpur played to a 70.66 average which was a shot and a quarter under par as only ten other courses on the PGA Tour were easier in 2018, with only six of those courses having full-field events on a single course held on them.
So the course is very easy, it ranked 40th in fairways hit and since we don’t know driving distance we can surmise that bombers love this course. But that may not be true, Ryan Moore won the event in 2014 & ’13 and we can’t say that Moore is a bomber, matter of fact he is in the bottom 20% in driving distance so you can’t call Kuala Lumpur a bombers delight. But since then Justin Thomas won twice and Pat Perez won last year, he ranked as the 122nd longest driver on tour and in the past, he has been in the upper half of driving distance.

So what can we look at historically to help us find players that should do well this week? Looking at the field from last year, all of them hit close to seven out of ten fairways, (68.18%)a very high percentage. They also hit lot’s of greens, over 7 of 10 (72.17%). Of the greens that they missed they got it up and down five and a half out of every 10 tries and averaged 31.61 putts per round. So it’s easy to see how each of the players in the field averaged 4.16 birdies per round and either made birdie or eagle on a quarter of the holes that they played. So frankly for the average pro, TPC Kuala Lumpur is a layup.

So in looking at our four categories, we are going to do a weird thing and that brings back the same categories as we used last week. So we pick Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because it helps to drive it long and straight and hit lots of greens. These are all traits in helping one make lots of birdies and eagles. Next up we pick strokes gained around the green because not only scrambling but Sand saves are important on the greens that are missed from the fairway. Our third category that is important is putting, so we have picked strokes gained-putting. Last is birdies as we pointed out lot’s of birdies are made on this course.

One thing to realize that that is not only a PGA Tour event but also an Asian Tour event so there are twelve players that are from that tour and will not have stats:
Asian Player (Rank on Asian Tour)
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (7)
Gaganjeet Bhullar (5)
John Catlin (8)
Minchel Choi (12)
Rahil Gangjee (11)
Berry Henson (13)
Leun-Kwang Kim (225)
Sihwan Kim (10)
Ben Leong (38)
Sanghyun Park (2)
Shubhankar Sharma (1)
Scott Vincent (4)
The odds of one of these Asian Tour member winning this week are very slim.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained-Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

*Par Breakers: Players that make the most birdies and eagles averaged per rounds played

62 of the 78 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2018.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the 52 players go to this link:

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Justin Thomas – $11,700
• Ryan Moore – $10,900
• Billy Horschel – $10,700
• Xander Schauffele – $10,400
• Paul Casey – $10,200
• Keegan Bradley – $9,900
• Marc Leishman – $9,800
• Gary Woodland – $9,700
• Emiliano Grillo – $9,500
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello – $9,300
• Brandt Snedeker – $9,100
• Kyle Stanley – $9,000

Next three weeks are good DraftKings weeks because the following three events have no cuts.  Still, it’s hard to make these picks because there are a lot of people, like Ryan Moore that your gut tells you he is not a $10,900 player, but since he has won twice that is his price.  Along the same road, it’s hard to believe that you will be able to get a Brandt Snedeker at $9,100.  In looking at the top price men, yes Justin Thomas is high at $10,700, but he has won twice in three tries.  Last year he fell to T-17th, think he would do better this year, and I would say he is a go.  The same with Ryan Moore at $10,900, he played well at this event and was good last week in Napa so yes he is a good pick.  In looking at Billy Horschel at $10,700 my first thought was that he was way too high, mainly since he hasn’t played the course well, but he finished the year great with a T-3rd at the Northern Trust, T-3rd at BMW and 2nd at the Tour Championship.  Know that it’s been a month since the Tour Championship, but I think it will carry over to this week so he will be a good pick.  Now is Xander Schauffele worth the $10,400?  He finished T-3rd last year, but I don’t think he will be as good this year, take a pass on him.  Paul Casey at $10,200 is another big question mark, he was T-7th last year, hasn’t had a great summer but was good at the Ryder Cup, so I say take a chance on him.  Same with Keegan Bradley at $9,900 he finished 2018 tremendous and should carry over.  He also is a high pick since he was runner-up last year and 6th in 2017.  Marc Leishman at $9,800 is a no for me, he struggled over the summer and didn’t see it improving.  Gary Woodland at $9,700 is a good pick, he can overpower this course and should do well.  Emiliano Grillo at $9,500 is a stretch, and I say no to talking him, again the summer has been a struggle for him.  Same with Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $9,300, he hasn’t played well this summer and still is probably sad about not making the Ryder Cup team, take a pass on him.  As for Brandt Snedeker at $9,100 he is the bargain of those in this price range and should be picked and on all your picks.  Last is Kyle Stanley at $9,000 I would say not, he was ok in the FedEx Cup but hasn’t shown he can play at Kuala Lumpur.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

It’s going to be hard to find some players in this price range, guys like Byeong Hun An at $8,900 aren’t worth the money.  Now I do like Cameron Smith at $8,400, his game heated up in the playoffs and think he will be tough this week.  Many will believe that Kevin Tway is a good buy at $8,200 I say take a pass on him, lighting will not strike twice.  Defending champion Pat Perez at $8,300 is a good buy, his game seems to come around this time of year.  C.T. Pan at $8,000 is also a good buy, played good in the playoffs.  Beau Hossler at $7,800 is also worth the price and I would take him

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the CIMB Championship

Jimmy Walker at $7,400 is a good pick, he won’t embarrass you and makes a lot of birdies.  Kiradech Aphibarnrat at $7,300 is worth the price and a right margin, has played well on this course.  Another good price is on Anirban Lahiri at $6,900.  He plays well at Kuala Lumpur.  Keith Mitchell at $6,900 is also good, remember everyone makes the cut, and you want a person that makes a lot of birdies and eagles, Mitchell was 12th last year in Par Breakers so he will score a lot of points.  Brendan Steele is also a great bargain at $6,800.  Also can’t go wrong with Jamie Lovemark at $6,800, the same with Ryan Palmer at $6,600 when you see he was 24th in Par Breakers last year.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the CIMB Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

The biggest key is being able to survive what will be harsh conditions weather wise.  Each day it’s going to be in the high 80s with over 80% humidity.  In looking at a weather report for the next week each day has a chance of thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon so it will take a special breed of player to win.  Look for a player that has lots of experience in playing in what could be considered Florida weather in July.  Patience will be necessary, the last couple of years has been tough and in the 2014 event heavy rain came down every day, and they had to finish the tournament on Monday morning.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Past winners on this course seem to putt very well.  In looking at the last nine winners at Kuala Lumpur, Pat Perez, Justin Thomas, Ryan Moore, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Louis Oosthuizen, Matteo Manassero, Seung-Yul Noh, and Charlie Wi do have one thing in command, they don’t overpower the ball and rely on good putting.
• Since the event is wide open with not many folks playing on this course, look at our who’s hot chart to see which player in the field has been playing the best of late.  On paper, it would seem that those that come from Napa will have problems, but Ryan Moore won four years ago playing the week before in Las Vegas.  Still, I would prefer a player like Justin Thomas who has won the last two years by not rushing getting to Malaysia and get used to the time change.