BlogHSBC Champions Preview and Picks

First of all an apology:

The last couple of weeks you have noticed things are slow in getting updated and the previews a bit late.  For the last couple of years, I have been having problems his my knees and things go so bad that last week I had my right knee replaced.  It’s a gruesome procedure and thank goodness I had a good team of doctors do a great job.  Still, it’s been a process to get around and basically, I can only spend a half hour at the time doing computer stuff.  So it takes a while to do anything and these previews and stat packages that a long time.  So I have cut them back and will try in the coming weeks to get back to what it was. I am hoping to be able to do the Sanderson Farms tomorrow, know it’s late but doing my best.  Also, know that sometimes my writing gets a bit messy, hopefully, that won’t be the case in the coming weeks as I ween myself off of pain-killers.  Thanks for understanding.

The Buzz:

Not a bad field when you realize that it’s October and the PGA Tour is basically not in full swing.  But the European Tour is in full swing, after this week they head to the playoffs for 3 weeks to determine the Race to Dubai winner.

Tournament Information:

This event started in 2006 and played at Sheshan Golf Club.  Because of the big purse and the event giving out appearance money, most of the top players of the time including Tiger Woods played.  Tiger came close finishing second in its first year as David Howell won by three shots.  The event was part of the European Tour and despite being played in November was the leadoff event for the European Tour’s wrap-around season.  So the first event was played in November of 2005 but counted for the European Tour’s 2006 season.  It continued to grow for the next three years as more marquee names went to China and in November of 2008, the European Tour started it’s 2009 season with Sergio Garcia winning.  Right after the tournament, it became part of the World Golf Championship series, which help elevate it.  At the same time, the European Tour revamped the way they ended their season, so the event in November of 2009 was included in the 2009 European Tour season.  This created the problem of the same event being played twice in the same season.  Phil Mickelson won the November 2009 HSBC and despite the PGA Tour being part of the WGC was not considered an official PGA Tour event.

The tournament went on a bizarre three-year journey.  Beginning in 2010, the HSBC Champions counted as an official PGA Tour victory and offered a three-year exemption on the PGA Tour, provided the tournament was won by a PGA Tour member. Prize money, however, did not count toward the official PGA TOUR money list, even if a PGA Tour member won the tournament. Tournament winners during this timeframe include 2010 – Francesco Molinari (unofficial PGA Tour win); 2011 – Martin Kaymer (unofficial PGA Tour win); 2012 – Ian Poulter (official PGA Tour win).

On the final day of the 2012 event, HSBC announced the renewal of its title sponsorship, something it did renewing in 2015.  With this announcement, the HSBC became part of the PGA Tour’s FedExCup schedule.  It awarded official money and FedExCup points (and a three-year exemption) beginning in 2013 (which later changed to 2014 because the Tour went to a wrap-around schedule for events ending in 2013).  Sound confusing, it is so you just have to remember one thing.  The first “official” WGC-HSBC for the PGA Tour was the one played in November of 2013, but it counted for the 2014 PGA Tour season.  So this week’s event counts on the 2019 PGA Tour season and the 2018 European Tour season.  This year it won’t be a part of the final series, it was dropped because the top players on the Race to Dubai couldn’t get in so the tour realized that it favored the top stars.

Course information: 

The Sheshan Golf Club is a par-72 golf course that was designed by Robin Nelson and Neil Haworth and opened in 2004. Not long after its opening, Tiger Woods praised the layout as “the crowning jewel of all of Asian golf.” To create the layout’s drastic elevation changes, work crews reportedly moved more than 2 million cubic yards of earth.  Sheshan International Golf Club features beautiful tree-lined fairways and gently rolling hills around 1000-year-old Gingko trees, calm waterways, and a spectacular natural quarry. Set in the shadow of the Basilica of Our Lady of Sheshan Cathedral and surrounded by beautiful Italian Tuscan inspired villas, Sheshan provides a truly unique experience.  Although located in the city of Shanghai, the serene surroundings suggest a genuine feeling of seclusion and nature.

Featuring well-placed bunkers throughout the golf course along with, deep collection areas, beautiful water features, and undulating greens.  The natural forestation was integrated into the course design. 10,000 trees and natural foliage has been preserved. Two 1000-year-old gingko trees grace the 4th hole. 16 million cubic meters of dirt was moved to create elevation, bunkers, and valleys. Sheshan provides a beautiful and challenging golf course for all, including the best Tour Professionals in the world and is considered one of the best courses in China.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,500
• Justin Rose – $11,200
• Brooks Koepka – $11,000
• Rory McIlroy – $10,700
• Jason Day – $10,300
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,100
• Tony Finau – $9,900
• Francesco Molinari – $9,800
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,500
• Jon Rahm $9,300
• Paul Casey – $9,200
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,100
• Alex Noren – $9,000

Another week of no cuts, this week has a lot of great players in the field and on Sunday many of these marquee players will be in the running.  To be frank, it’s going to be hard to make a great pick because most of these players haven’t played a lot lately and it’s a leap of faith for a lot of them.  First off we have Dustin Johnson at $11,500, he usually plays well on this course and for many, they will pick him.  I will not pick him because I think his personal life is not in a good place and this has shown it’s problem in his play the last couple of months, so I say no on him.  Justin Rose at $11,200 is the defending champion and is doing ok and even though he is a high price you can’t go wrong with him.  The same with Brooks Koepka at $11,000.  Can’t say anything but good things, he won last week in Korea and is on track to do the same this week.  He will be tough to beat.  Rory McIlroy is at $10,700 and I don’t like him, he still has problems with his game and I think he will frustrate you this week.  Jason Day at $10,300 may be a good choice, he played well in Korea and I can see him possibly winning this week.  Hideki Matsuyama at $10,100 is a big question mark, yes he won this event two years ago, but I just don’t like what happened last week in Korea, so I say no on him.  Tony Finau at $9,900 is a guy that the course is perfect for him and he could do some damage, so he is a yes for me.  The same with Francesco Molinari at $9,800, his game has been steady and he has won on this course.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,500 is a question mark for me, he hasn’t played well at Sheshan and I feel that will continue.  Jon Rahm at $9,300 is a no for me, he hasn’t shown much over the months and just don’t think he will contend.  Paul Casey at $9,200 is a big question mark, I really don’t know which way to go on him.  Lot’s of positives but there are some negatives, so it’s your choice.  The same with Tyrrell Hattan at $9,100 and Alex Noren at $9,000 I can go in both directions with them.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Right off the bat is two good choices for you. First Patrick Cantlay at $8,800 has all the stats, the only reason not to pick him he isn’t a birdie or eagle machine.  Still, he is very steady and should be a good pick  Same with Ian Poulter at $8,600 who played great last week in Korea and I see he continuing.  Billy Horschel is a good pick at $8,000, he has played well of late and I see it continuing. I continue to like Brandt Snedeker at $7,600 again I think Snedeker is on the verge of winning, Another great picks will be Keegan Bradley and Emiliano Grillo at $7,500, you can’t go wrong with either of them.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the WGC-HSBC Champions

I like Eddie Pepperell at $7,300 he is playing well and it should continue.  Also, think that Russell Knox is a great buy at $7,300 with his record in this event.  Pat Perez at $7,200 is worth the price, he played well last week in Korea.  Brian Harman at $6,700 is a good price, he played well last year and makes lot’s of birdies.  Also, have to like Matt Wallace at $6,700 he is very steady and will get you some points.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the WGC-HSBC Champions:

Key stat for the winner:

Event will be played again at Sheshan after being played in 2012 at Mission Hills.  In the previous years held at Sheshan, there is no one stat that you can put your fingers on and say, geez this course favors such and such a player.  So we have to look at those that have played well before at Sheshan, one thing pops up. Bubba Watson had a great 2014 and five months after his China victory won the Masters in 2016.  Dustin Johnson and Ian Poulter were also very succesful before and after.  The same with 2016 champion Russell Knox, he won again on the PGA Tour over the summer.  Last year Hideki Matsuyama won in China and after that won on the Japan Tour at the Taiheiyo Masters, then in his next start won the Hero World Challenge.  He started in 2017 with a early win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and won again at a World Golf Championship when he won the Bridgestone Invitational.   Look at Justin Rose, last year he won this event and went on to win the FedEx Cup

All the other champions also had the same thing going.  Look at Martin Kaymer in 2011, he had been playing well for two years, winning the PGA Championship.  In 2010, Francesco Molinari was putting the finishes touch on a great year, same with winners Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia.  So look for a player that has had a great 2013 to win this week.  So in a way the course favors a top notch player, someone that has won big events including other WGC events and majors.  The point is don’t be surprise to see either Justin Rose, Hideki Matsuyama or a Russell Knox do well.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

One thing that is for certain, look for a high ranked player to win.  The lowest-ranked player in the Official World Golf Ranking to win the HSBC Champions was Y.E. Yang, who was No. 77 when he won the event in 2006.  Here is a look at the HSBC champions over the years and how they ranked in the world rankings prior to victory:

• 2017, Justin Rose, No. 13th
• 2016, Hideki Matsuyama, No. 6th
• 2015, Russell Knox, No. 65
• 2014, Bubba Watson, No. 7
• 2013, Dustin Johnson, No. 23
• 2012, Ian Poulter, No. 26
• 2011, Martin Kaymer No. 6
• 2010, Francesco Molinari No. 30
• 2009, Phil Mickelson No. 2
• 2008, Sergio Garcia No. 3
• 2007, Phil Mickelson No. 2
• 2006, Y.E. Yang No. 77
• 2005, David Howell No. 19

• Very interesting to see how Sheshan compared with the other courses on the PGA Tour last year.  In driving accuracy it ranked 20th, in green in regulation was 22nd hardest course.  In scrambling it was 3rd while in overal putting average it ranked 32nd.  The course had a 72.29 scoring average which ranked 13th but also meant the players averaged just over par so the course is not a pushover.
• With tight fairways and lot’s of roll in them, accuracy is important but not a big key.  The more important factor in looking at past years is a player that can dominate the par 3s. It’s also interesting to note that last eight champions at Sheshan (not including 2012 when it was played at Missing Hills) have had problems on the par 3s.  Last year Justin Rose played the par 3s in even par while in 2017 Hideki Matsuyama was also even par, in 2016 Russell Knox was 2 under, in 2015 Bubba Watson was even par, 2014 Dustin Johnson was 4 under, 2011 Martin Kaymer was 5 under, Francisco Molinari was even par in 2010 and Phil Mickelson was 1 under in 2009.
• Last week in Korea the weather was good.  Things will be warmer with it in the low 70s each day but the good thing is that it will be dry all week.
• Again like we say, look for the player with the hot hand.  Those that have played well the last three weeks could play well this week and win.