BlogShriners Hospitals Preview and Picks

The Buzz

Off to Sin City:

The oldest running fall event, Shriners Hospital for Children has all of the glamour of Las Vegas on a course that a lot of players like to play on.  For some, this will be a fun week with a little bit of golf mixed in with the fast-paced action of Las Vegas.

Founded in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic, the event has undergone six name changes in the history of the event. Frys.Com became the title sponsor for the event in 2006, replacing its former title, the Michelin Championship at Las Vegas.  2007 was the final year of Fry’s involvement and in 2008 Justin Timberlake took on the duties of becoming the tournament presenter with Shriners Hospitals for Children sponsoring the event.  Timberlake is no longer associated with the tournament.

At the tournament’s inception, the managers of the tournament prided themselves on running a tournament that stood out amongst the slew of annual PGA events. It was the first event to offer a total purse of $1 million; at the trophy presentation, the winner used to receive his trophy with two showgirls by his side. Though these ideas help separate the event from others, the most drastic deviation from the norm is the tournament’s format, which in a way “borrowed” the format at the Bob Hope Open.

In its inception, the tournament was played over five rounds at between three and four courses. However, in 2003, when the original tournament founders abdicated control to another volunteer organization, the event was immediately switched to the more conventional four-round format. Over the years, courses have been dropped and for the 11th straight year, it’s only played on the TPC Summerlin.

One thing about this event, it’s always nice winning an event but for some of its past champions they never got back to the winner’s circle again on the PGA Tour.  Look at the 17 past winners since 2000, only eight Webb Simpson (2014), Ryan Moore (2012), Jonathan Byrd (2010), Martin Laird (2009), George McNeill (2007), Troy Matteson (2006), Stuart Appleby (2003) and Bob Estes (2001) won again.  The others, Patrick Cantlay (2018), Rod Pampling (2017),Smylie Kaufman (2016) Ben Martin (2015), Webb Simpson (2014), Kevin Na (2011), Marc Turnesa (2008), Wes Short Jr. (2005), Andre Stolz (2004), Phil Tataurangi (2002) and Billy Andrade (2000) never made it back to the winners circle on the PGA Tour and some of them don’t even play anymore on the PGA Tour.

Advantages of the Wrap-around schedule:

What a great world the PGA Tour is.  Just look at some of the players that had high finishes at the Safeway, CIMB Nine Bridges, and Sanderson Farms.  Winners Kevin Tway, Marc Leishman, Brooks Koepka, Cameron Champ and Xander Schauffele can now have a comfortable 2019, which is still two months away.  With their victories, we know that their Christmas will be special.  The same for players like Tony Finau, he now doesn’t have to worry about the year because he has gotten it off in the proper manner with his runner-up finish at the WGC-HSBC.  Even guys like Gary Woodland, with his runner-up at the Nine Bridges has put him 5th in the FedEx Cup race with 393 points and $1,263,300 in his pocket already.

Gosh, how far things have gotten, in 1964 Jack Nicklaus won the money race with $113,284 less than what Woodland has made in just two starts.  Oh, it took Ben Hogan 16 years on the PGA Tour before he won his first $100,000.  Going a step further, Gene Sarazen collected money on the PGA Tour between 1920 and 1976 and this may seem hard to believe but in his 56 years of playing he won 38 times, seven of them majors and only won $77,787.  So it’s nice to see all these guys doing so well in the 2018 season with 81 days before 2018 official takes place.

One last thing, this week is the 22nd anniversary of Tiger Woods first win on the PGA Tour.  In 1996 he won the Shriners by beating Davis Love III in a playoff.  For the victory, he won $297,000, $42,000 more than what Carlos Ortiz won for finishing 3rd at the Sanderson Farms last week.  Talking about Tiger, we will see him playing Phil Mickelson in three weeks in this pay-per-view that frankly I think at $19.95 will have very little appeal.  Just think it’s too much to watch a pair of millionaires get richer.

Course information:

• TPC Summerlin was designed by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1992. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The tees, fairways, and rough all comprise of 419 Bermuda Grass, cut at 3/8″, 3/8″, and 2″ respectively. The greens consist of a 1/8″ cut of A-1/A-4 Creeping Bent Grass. This shortcut mixed with the always speedy Bent Grass explains the rather Stimpmeter reading of 11 feet. As for hazards, the course features 99 sand bunkers (with 51 around the greens) and water comes into play on four holes.
• The signature hole at TPC Summerlin is the short 341-yard par four 15th hole. The large elevated green is reachable from the tee; however, numerous bunkers guard the green, making the play risky, but possibly very rewarding. As for accolades, Golf Digest rated this as the fourth “Best in State” course for 1995-96, and the fifth best for 1997-98. Also, GolfWeek awarded it 98th in the category of “America’s 100 Best Modern Courses” for 1997.
• Last year was the tenth time that Summerlin was the only course used and they made a big change in 2009 changing par to 71 by making the third hole a long par 4 at 473 yards.  In addition to this change, trees were added along the right side of the fairways on Nos. 9 and 16, both par 5s. The rough also was grown longer than in years past and for holes 7, 9, 11, 12, 13 and 16 the fairways are going to be between 3 and 5 yards narrower than in 2008.  All of these changed to try and make the course play a bit tougher.  In 2008 Summerlin played to an average of 69.070, while in 2009 with par reduced it played just about the same, 69.152. In 2010 it played to a 68.956 average, while in 2011 it was 68.883, 2012 was 69.713 and the 40th toughest course at of 49. In 2014 the course played to a 69.546 average and was the 43rd hardest course out of 48.  In 2015 the course played to a 69.659 average and was the 42nd hardest course out of the 52 played.  In 2016 the course played to a 70.080 and was the 34th hardest course out of 50. In 2017 the course played to a 69.622 and was the 40th hardest course out of 49 courses that was played in 2017.  Last year it had a course rating of 71.54 making it the 10th hardest course on tour.
• Lot’s of birdies are made on this course, last year 1,429 were made along with 31 eagles.  The finish is demanding with the par 3 17th hole played the 2nd hardest hole at 3.215 while the 18th hole was the 8th hardest at 4.118.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Summerlin:

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Summerlin based on data from last year’s Shriners Hospital for Children and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2018.
TPC Summerlin has a long history on the PGA Tour, it was first part of the Shriners rota in 1992 just after the course opened when the tournament was 90 holes and utilized three courses. Starting in 1995 it was the home course of the event and became the sole venue of the tournament in 2008. The course has always been well respected and for a desert course is one of the hardest. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The players love the course, many since they can score low on it on a normal day without wind.

Last year with very high winds up to 25 mph on Friday, Saturday and Sunday the course played a lot tougher than previous years with a 71.54 scoring average, a half over par. It was the 00th hardest course on the PGA Tour, showing how weather can affect things in 2017 Summerlin played to a 69.62 average and was the 40th hardest course on tour. So with that, it changed the minds of many who though the course was a bombers delight, it really isn’t. If you look at the winners of this event since 2008 only one bomber won the event, Smylie Kaufman in 2016. But in looking at all of the other winners, champions like Rod Pampling, Ben Martin, Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore and Marc Turnesa have always been part of the bottom third of drivers so they don’t hit it far. Last year’s winner Patrick Cantlay was T-8th in driving distance and 33rd for 2018. So what kind of players wins at TPC Summerlin?

Of the eleven champions since 2007, five of them were in the top-five of greens in regulation and only two champions, Patrick Cantlay last year was T-17th and Kevin Na, were both higher than 13th (Na was 40th when he won in 2011). Another important item is putting, six of the winners were in the top-10 in putting average with only two not in the top-20 (Cantlay was 9th last year). The one stat that seems important is that of the eleven winners, seven of them were in double digits in under par figures on the par 4s. 2010 winner Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under, in 2017 Rod Pampling was 13 under and last year Patrick Cantlay was 9 under on the par 4s. (This is important, Cantlay led the par 4s with the best average, it was down due to the winds).

In looking at the course averages from last year, the one thing that sticks out is that TPC Summerlin was the 8th hardest course to drive it on the fairway. In 2017 it was the hardest in looking at the history of the course, in 2016 it ranked 11th and in 2015 it was 17th so hitting it straight is important. In looking at our champions since 2009, all of them finished in the top-20 with last year’s winner Patrick Cantlay ranking T-5th. Some other keys to playing well are making lot’s of birdies, last year Cantlay had 20 birdies which was tied for the most of the tournament and an average of one in every 3 and a half holes played..

One important item is the weather, every day is mostly perfect in Las Vegas this time of year with lot’s of sun and temperatures in the mid-70s. The good news for the players, Thursday will be windy with breezes up to 14 mph but the last three days it’s between 7 and 9 mph which will make scoring a lot lower than last year.

So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving hit straight and far makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained off-the-tee because driving is the key to playing well. Our second important category is proximity to the hole. The course ranked 28th in greens hit last year in the wind but 38th in 2017 which means lot’s of greens will be hit, but something that is striking is the course ranked 10th last year in proximity to hole, averaging 41 feet, 4 inches from the hole. So in order to make birdies, the person that gets his shots from the fairways close will do very well. Next up we pick not only scrambling but Sand saves, because if the greens are missed you have to still make par. Last year the field averaged 6th in scrambling and with 51 greenside bunkers, the field was 5th in sand save percentage so our third category is strokes Gained Around-the-Green. Last we pick par breakers which is the combination of birdies and eagles made during the round. Making lot’s of birdies and eagles is always important, especially on a desert course like TPC Summerlin.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length of that a shot going into the green leaves a player.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Par Breakers: Combination of birdies and eagles to get a percentage of holes played under par

89 of the 132 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2018:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to the other 79 players

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rickie Fowler – $11,400
• Tony Finau – $11,300
• Jordan Spieth – $11,000
• Bryce DeChambeau – $10,800
• Webb Simpson – $10,300
• Patrick Cantlay- $9,900
• Gary Woodland – $9,700
• Aaron Wise – $9,400
• Chesson Hadley – $9,300
• Cameron Champ $9,200
• Matt Kuchar – $9,100

We are back to our regular stick, with a 72 hole event with a 36 hole cut.  The field is pretty good for this week, first is Rickie Fowler at $11,400, yes he has played this event before and other than the T-7th in 2009 has not been very impressive.  Save the money and put it on Tony Finau at $11,300.  His record is about the same as Fowler as Finau finished T-7th when he played in this event for the first time in 2015.  But his game has been pretty solid this fall and I can see it carry over.  The big question with be if Jordan Spieth at $11,000 is worth it, frankly I would not do the money for someone that hasn’t played in a month and had some problems.  Of course, Spieth could be wonderful, just playing this week shows us that he wants to play well in 2019.  But save the money for another time.  As for Bryce DeChambeau at $10,800 I say he is a big yes.  Plays well at TPC Summerlin and his game will be fine.  Webb Simpson at $10,300 is also a yes, he also plays well on this course.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,900 and Gary Woodland at $9,700 is also big yes’s think either could win.  Aaron Wise is too much at $9,400 but Chesson Hadley at $9,300, Cameron Champ at $9,200 and Matt Kuchar at $9,100 are all good to pick.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Kevin Na at $8,800 and Ryan Moore at $8,700 are very good picks, both have great records in this event and always seem to play well.  Joaquin Niemann at $8,400 is also a good pick, yes hasn’t shown much of late but he is due and this is a great course for him.  I also like Lucas Glover at $8,300, he has played well in the desert.  Ryan Palmer at $7,900 is a go along with Denny McCarthy at $7,900.  One last guy to pick is Si Woo Kim at $7,500.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Hard to believe that you can get Kevin Tway so cheap at $7,300, at that price it’s a no-brainer.  Yes Peter Uihlein has not played well but in the desert at $7,200 he is a good pick.  Same with Jhonattan Vegas and Brendan Steele at $7,100 are great bargains. One last long shot with a good price is Nick Watney at $6,900.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Making lots of birdies is important.  The average for the last 14 winners since the course reverted to a 72 hole affair is is 22 under and the winners average making 24 birdies per event or six per round.  So the secret is to make a lot of birdies.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• With fairways that are wide open, fairways with lots of roll, dominating the par 5s has been a key.  It’s also interesting to note that in the last 14 years the winners have averaged 10 under par on the par 4s.  Last year Patrick Cantlay was 1 over the only time a winner has been over par.  In 2017 Rod Pampling was 13 under on the par 4s, in 2016 Smylie Kaufman was 6 under on the par 4s while Ben Martin was 9 under in 2015 and in 2014 Webb Simpson was 12 under the same as Ryan Moore was in 2012. Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under in 2010 while the least lowest was 6 under by George McNeill in 2007.
• Being an accurate driver, a long driver or a person that hits a lot of greens doesn’t give you a big advantage.  Scrambling is very important it ranked 6th on the PGA Tour last year.  If there ever was a tournament that favors the newcomer, this is it.
• Most of the time the weather is wonderful, it should be that way this year.  The wind will blow on Thursday at 14 mph but the rest of the week will be perfect with very little wind.
• You have to realize where you’re at, in Las Vegas “lady luck” is very important in winning, a lot of players that you would never think would win have found the “luck factor” in the victory.