El Camalaon Key Fantasy Stats

Mayakoba Golf Classic

November 8th – 11th, 2018

El Camaleon G.C.

Playa Del Carmen Mexico

Par: 71 / Yardage: 6,987

Purse: $7.2 Million

with $1,296,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Patton Kizzire

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most vital stats from El Camaleon based on data from last year’s OHL Classic at Mayakoba and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2019.
This is the 12th year that the OHL Classic at Mayakoba is being played at El Camaleon. With it played in Mexico, we don’t have true Shotlink stats to work with, so we are stuck with the old-fashion stats of fairways hit, driving distance, greens hit, scrambling, the number of putts, birdies, and eagles made. The one thing to understand about this week, last year El Camaleon played to a 70.32 average with was three-quarters of a shot under par as it ranked the 32nd hardest course on the PGA Tour. Because of high winds, it was three-quarters of a shot harder than in 2017 when it played to a 69.61 average which goes to show that wind is a very important element to the way the event plays.
So the course did play tougher, it ranked 32nd in fairways hit while in 2017 it ranked 42nd. In driving distance it ranked 4th compared to 9th in 2017, meaning that players don’t hit it very long on this course, last year it averaged 283.1, probably again due to winds. Maybe that is the reason that short hitter tends to do very well on this course as Charley Hoffman in 2015 was the only long hitter. Last year Patton Kizzire won and he ranked 61st on tour in driving distance for 2018. The point is that this event doesn’t see bombers doing well, you need a lot of other things to win, so you can’t call El Camaleon a bombers delight.

So what can we look at historically to help us find players that should do well this week? Looking at the field from last year, all of them hit six and a half out of ten fairways, a very high percentage. They also hit lot’s of greens, just under 7 of 10. Of the greens that they missed, they got it up and down just under 6 out of every 10 tries and averaged 29.15 putts per round. So it’s easy to see how each of the players in the field averaged 3.80 birdies per round and either made birdie or eagle on a quarter of the holes that they played. So frankly for the average pro, El Camaleon is a layup.

In looking at the 27 players that have finished 5th or better in the last five Mayakoba’s, the trend is that driving the ball is not important. Of the 27 players, only seven players finished the week in the top-ten in fairways hit and on six players finished in the top ten in driving distance. In 2018 only one player in the top ten finished in the top-ten in fairways hit. Now of those same 27 players, 12 of them were in the top-ten of greens hit, with two players leading that stat. Of the 27 players, 13 of the players finished in the top-ten in putts per round. Also looking at the 27 players, they averaged playing the par 3s in 4 under, the par 4s in 6 under and the par 5s in 8 under. The 27 players average making 23 birdies so you can see it’s very important to play the par 5s well and make lots of birdies.
In looking at last year’s winner Patton Kizzire, he was 21st in driving distance and T-52nd in fairways hit so that holds up with our thoughts that driving is meaningless at El Camaleon. Now he was T-7th in greens hit, 13th in scrambling and T-5th in putts per round. Going a step further, Kizzire didn’t have any 3-putts and was T-6th in one-putts, showing that around the greens and on the greens was important in his win. On the par 3s, he played them in 4 under, the best of the week was Martin Piller at 6 under. Were Kizzire excel on was the par 4s and par 5s. He was 7 under on the par 4s, (he was best in the field) and he was also best in the field on the par 5s at 8 under. Kizzire made 25 birdies, again best in the field.

So in looking at our four categories, we are going to bring a premium on putting and hitting greens. Normally we would pick strokes gained-putting, but since we are using 2019 stats and only three of the six events have that stat, we are picking putting average as our first category, last year El Camaleon ranked T-31st in this stat. Our next important stat is greens hit, again that is a stat that is important for El Camaleon, on tour it was 34th. Our third important stat is par breakers, again making lot’s of eagles and birdies is important, last year it ranked 33rd best. Last we are going to look at Par 4 leaders since this was an important stat for those on top of the leaderboard, on tour El Camaleon ranked T-15th.

One last thing to watch for is players that did well last year and be sure not to forget about Web.Com tour players. Yes, Cameron Champ who won the Sanderson and should be watched for the rest of the years. Another key, is looking for winners for this course the odds on picking a winner is slim because most of the past winners weren’t very high up on peoples list. So expect the unexpected for this week.

*Putting Average: A look at who has the least amount of putts per round.

*Greens in Regulation: Who hits the most greens during the week.

*Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

*Par 4 leaders: A look at who plays the par 4s the most for the week.

116 of the 132 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2019

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.