BlogDP World, Dubai Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The final series has been a bit better now that it’s just three events and going into this week it’s a one-man race with Francesco Molinari pretty much running away with things.  He is 1,025,166 points up on Tommy Fleetwood and the only way the math works is if Molinari got hit my a camel on the way to the course on Thursday and didn’t play, with Fleetwood winning the tournament.

That is the big problem with having a point system like this, if you have a person having a great season like Molinari, he will be so far in front nobody can catch him.  Despite people complaining about the FedEx Cup points being redone and with a major reset before the Tour Championship, you always have a challenge in the final event.  One thing that is sad is Justin Rose not playing in the final two events, if he could have played last week at the Nedbank it would have made for a nice challenge for this week, but it wasn’t to be.  The same could have been said of Tommy Fleetwood who took a pass on Nedbank if he could have won that it would have made for an interesting DP World.  This should be on the top of European Tour chief Keith Pelley’s list of things to improve, making the finish as strong and meaningful as the PGA Tour has with the FedExCup.  The big problem stems from players having to go to Turkey, then South Africa and then Dubai, that is a lot of flying.

Another problem Pelley will have is if Rory McIlroy doesn’t play in 4 European Tour events in 2019.  Rory has said that he wants to put his total focus toward Majors and playing in America, right now he only has the Scottish Open and the European Masters in Switzerland on his schedule for 2019.  For the first time in a while, he won’t play in the middle east swing between Abu Dhabi and Dubai, won’t play in the Irish Open which he won’t be a part of this year after being the ambassador of the event for the last several years.  What is even harder to believe, after this week he plans on playing just once in the next 13 weeks and his first European Tour event will be in July at the Scottish Open.  Still, McIlroy’s plans aren’t laid in concrete so anything can happen, but I will bet that he won’t play either Dubai or Abu Dhabi in January.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Sergio Garcia – $11,900
• Rory McIlroy $11,700
• Xander Schauffele – $11,000
• Jon Rahm – $10,700
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,200
• Francesco Molinari – $9,900
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,600
• Patrick Reed – $9,400
• Henrik Stenson – $9,200
• Haotong Li – $9,000

I am going to put more resources in this event than the RSM.  Think that I have a better chance because have a better understanding of European Tour players and the outcome always seems to have a better result with marquee names doing ok.  The first choice by DraftKings is Sergio Garcia at $11,900 who has played ok in this event and came close to winning last week at the Nedbank.  Again Sergio always has a problem when leading in the final round, I think he will play well this week and get a top-five finish.  Next up is Rory McIlroy at $11,700, history shows that he plays well on this course and will come through with another top finish.  Since he does make a lot of birdies, he will probably be a good choice for this week.  I probably won’t pick Xander Schauffele at $11,000.  It’s a high price for a player that has never played the course, yes he is playing good but I don’t like him this week.  Jon Rahm is $10,700 and last year proved to be a good pick playing the course for the first time.  He is a weird player that seems to do well on some courses and not good on 80% of the other courses, I still don’t like his temper and won’t pick him, but be warned that he played great on the course last year and will probably play well again.  Tommy Fleetwood at $10,200 is usually a good pick, but in five starts on this course as struggled so I will avoid him.  I like Francesco Molinari at $9,900 a lot, he has played well on the course and would love to end his year with a win which is possible.  I also like Tyrrell Hatton at $9,600, he has played well and has a good record so he is worth the money.  Patrick Reed is $9,600 and even though I won’t take him, many will think that he is a good pick.  Sorry just think between Garcia, McIlroy, Molinari, and Hatton there are much better choices than Reed.  Henrik Stenson is $9,200 and has played well on this course, but I won’t take him due to his struggle all year.  Haotong Li is $9,000 and despite me not taking him others will due to his good play this fall, he has been in the top-11 in his last five starts and was T-5th at Nedbank and 2nd at Turkish Airlines

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Have to say that I was high on Lee Westwood last week and was rewarded nicely.  Westwood is $8,500 and has played well on this course but has struggled the last couple of years.  Still, I think Westwood will pop back.  Matthew Fitzpatrick is $8,200 and I think he is a good pick just because he has played well on this course.  Yes, he has struggled on the European Tour in the fall, but I think he will break out of it.  Matt Wallace is $8,000 and I think a very good buy even though he has not played this event.  I like him dues to his T-5th last week, think he will be good this week.  Same with Thomas Detry at $7,900 he hasn’t played in this event but was 7th at Nedbank and T-3rd in Turkey.  Ian Poulter is a great buy at $7,800, I like him because he has finished runner-up twice in this event and can do it again.  Kiradech Aphibarnrat is $7,600 and is good concerning he was T-2nd last year.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the DP World

Lot’s of great bargains in the under $7,400 price range.  First is Dylan Frittelli at $7,300, he was T-4th last year.  Another good pick is Dean Burmester at $6,900, he was T-4th last year and was T-11th last week, he is a good pick for little money.  Another great pick is Darren Fichardt at $6,600 he played ok last week and will get you points.  My best low pick is Mike Lorenzo-Vera at $6,400 he was T-13th last year and was T-11th at Nedbank.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the DP World Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

In past DP World Championships, they have been dominated by six different players, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace, and Henrik Stenson.  All of them except Schwartzel is in the field and should be favorites.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Two essential elements come across in the previous nine winners.  First is driving distance, seven of the nine winners were in the top-ten while three (Jon Rahm 2017, Rory McIlroy 2015 and Alvaro Quiros in 2011) led while Rory McIlroy in 2012 was 2nd.  Hitting greens is also very important, 2015 winner McIlroy was T-3rd while the previous year’s winner Henrik Stenson was T-4th and led that category in 2013 just like Lee Westwood in 2009.  In 2011 Alvaro Quiros was T2nd, so you have to hit the ball good and straight from tee to green.  In 2016 Matthew Fitzpatrick was T-21st in greens hit but was T-3rd in putts, last year Jon Rahm was T-26th in greens hit and 2nd in putts.
• All of the par-5s are easy, last year Rahm was 8 under while Fitzpatrick was 12 under on them in 2016, best of anyone in tournament history.  In 2015 McIlroy was 9 under on them and the year before Stenson played them in 10 under. Also at 12 under was Alvaro Quiros in 2011 while the worst was Robert Karlsson in 2010 when he played them in 7 under
• Surprisingly all of the winners have played the par 4s well, last year Rahm was 12 under while in 2016 Fitzpatrick was 4 under on them.  In 2015 McIlroy was 10 under while the best was Henrik Stenson at 14 under in 2013. Lee Westwood played them in 13 under in 2009 while the worst was Robert Karlsson at 7 under in 2010.
• There is zero chance of any rain in the next week, and the wind could present a problem with it blowing 15 mph each day, so players won’t’ be able to attack the course as they have done in past years.