BlogSentry Tournament of Champions Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

One of the best perks on the PGA Tour for winning is getting to start the year off in Maui. For the average person, they would kill just to get to Hawaii.  The winners in 2018 not only get to go to Hawaii, but they get a week at a Ritz Carlton on one of the prettiest beaches in the world. Food couldn’t be any better; the scenery is the best and for those that like water sports from surfing to snorkeling the Kapalua area is the best. Yes, this is arduous work and to think, there is no hustle or bustle this week, play lousy finish last, and you’ll still make $60 grand. What a life.

But let’s face reality, not every pro on the PGA Tour (or European Tour) thinks that playing in the Sentry T of C is their cup of tea.  For this year three players took a pass, Justin Rose, Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods leaving the field to 34.

In past years we have harped on how players could miss out on this event, for those that aren’t here it’s understandable since Rose is starting his seasons on the European Tour, while Mickelson hates the Plantation course and hasn’t played it since 2001. As for Woods, there was some talk that he wanted to play but at the last minute decided on more R&R at home instead of working in Maui.  Still, the field is healthy with 34 starters, the same number as last year.

Of the 34, nine are playing for the first time, nine have only played once.  2013 champion Dustin Johnson has the most experience, playing in eight, while Bubba Watson and Matt Kuchar are next playing in six previous Tournament of Champions.

So there isn’t a wealth of experience in this event and begs the question, the field could be better if they took the winners of the last two or even three years.  But the PGA Tour or the Sentry officials have stayed pat on just the previous 52 weeks winners getting an invite.

Let’s just say that if the event would invite those that won in the last 24 months, 2 years we would have Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Pat Perez, Sergio Garcia, Brian Harman, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Henrik Stenson and Jason Dufner in the field, which would have made this a much better event.

Course information:

The Plantation course was designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw and was opened in May of 1991. Between 1992 and 1997 the course was the venue of the Lincoln-Mercury Kapalua Open, with the Mercedes Championships moving to the Plantation course in 1999. The average green size at Kapalua is 9,500 square feet, which means that it has some of the largest greens on tour. This will place a premium on putting, especially on long putts. The course has 95 bunkers and no water hazards, with fairways so vast that a 747 can land on them.

Last year, the course played to a scoring average of 71.22 (remember it’s a par 73) that was just two and a quarter under par and it was the fifth easiest course on the PGA Tour.  Surprising it’s the second time in a row the average was over 70 since 2014 when the course played to an average of 70.58.  In 2016 it played to an average of 69.80.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the Plantation Course at Kapalua:

This is based on the most important stats for Plantation Course at Kapalua, based on data from last years Sentry Tournament of Champions, and using data from all the players in the field for with stats from a combination of 2018 & ’19.
One thing that is important to know, the scoring average of the field last year was 71.22, so with par being 73, that means the average score was one and three quarters under per round, making Kapalua the easiest of 13th easiest courses to score on in 2018.
Now there are many reasons for this; first, the Plantation Course is a resort course and not geared to be super tough. Another reason for the course being easy is the fairways, there is no way that you can’t hit the fairways at Kapalua, a 747 can land on them. Last year the course ranked 37th (of 50 courses) in driving accuracy with a 65.69 total. On top of that, since the fairways are firm and many of them are downhill, it’s not surprising that for all the drives the average is 274.5 yards. So with that said many would say gosh this is a course for bombers, but it isn’t. Yes, long hitters have a big advantage, last year’s winner Dustin Johnson finished 6th on the PGA Tour in driving distance. But in other years, short hitters have won. Look at some of the champions the last few years, Jordan Spieth was the 51st longest hitter on tour in 2016. Even better yet Zach Johnson won in 2014, Steve Stricker in 2012, Jonathan Byrd in 2011 were three of the shortest hitters in PGA Tour history. Even guys like Geoff Ogilvy (who won twice) and Daniel Chopra were very average on tour in driving distance, so the myth that this course is for bombers is not right, except for one small fact. Being on a hill overlooking the Pacific Ocean and the Pailolo Channel the Plantation course tends to get hit by some high winds, and when that happens, especially if the winds are out of the north, it helps short hitters The same when it’s dry, it helps the short hitters. For this week winds are going to come out of the East-northeast, and they are predicted to be for the first two days over 20 mph, with some gusts up to 30 mph. On the weekend they get calmer, Sunday they are down to around 10 mph from the northeast.
So this favors the shorter hitter. But the one undisputed fact that many don’t understand about the winners, in most cases the best putter is the victor. Here is a stat that will blow your mind, of the 20 Kapalua winners since 1999 the highest any of them have ranked in putts per round is 4th. Of the 20 champions, nine have led that stat while five were second and three were third. Last year’s winner Johnson ranked 2nd in putts per round. So it makes sense since the course is wide open and the greens the largest on the PGA Tour hitting fairways and greens are easy. But just because you hit a green doesn’t mean it’s going to help you to win. You got to get it close to the hole but more importantly be a great putter, avoid those nasty three putts and make lot’s of putts from six feet and in. Last year’s winner Dustin Johnson made 61 of 63 putts from six feet in. The winner before, 2017 champion Justin Thomas and 2016 champion Jordan Spieth both made 59 of 60 putts from six feet and in. In 2014 when Zach Johnson won he made 63 of 65 putts from seven feet and in 2012, Steve Stricker made 58 of 61 putts from seven feet and in. Another key is lack of three putts, last year Johnson didn’t have a single three-putt while Thomas had just 2 three putts. Also, all of the winners are good in scrambling, last year Johnson was 6th while 2017 champion Thomas was 12th in scrambling but the year before Jordan Spieth was 3rd. The 2015 winner Patrick Reed was 2nd the same for 2014 winner Zach Johnson.

So here are our four choices for the most important stats from players to do well at Kapalua:

*Proximity to Hole: In greens in regulation 73.69% were hit last year, making it the 4th easiest course to hit greens on the PGA Tour. In proximity to the hole, players tended to have a tough time getting it close to the hole, last year they averaged 43 feet, 8 inches as only one course saw approach shots go further away from the hole. So you have to not only get on the green but Proximity to hole is important

*Strokes Gained-Putting: The greens average 7,120 square feet at Kapalua, making them above average on the PGA Tour. So with shots ending up far from the hole, it puts a premium on putting, so players that gain strokes putting have an advantage. Overall putting stats place it the 8th hardest to putt, as one putts are at a premium. Three putts aren’t that bad as the course ranks 8th in 3-putt avoidance. But we can’t stop saying the importance of putting well at Kapalua and this is the kiss of death for a lot of players, balky putting.

*Par Breakers: The Plantation Course has always been a pushover for the best players in the world. The field killed the course in 2018 averaging 4.40 birdies per round and a total of 599 birdies were made from the field of 34 players, so it’s important to be the best in this Par Breakers which is based on who makes the most birdies and eagles.

*Scrambling: With big greens it’s near impossible to miss them, still if you do you have to get it up and down. Last year the course ranked 28th on tour in scrambling, but that was a bit misleading because for those that win, you better get it up and down. Last year Johnson missed 16 greens and got it up and down 11 of the time (68.75%) to rank T-6th so it’s important to look and find those that do scramble well.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all of the 34 players in the field

*Of the 34 who are playing this week, 25 have played in the past and had history in this event.  The biggest key to picking is those that make the most eagles and birdies.  So here is a cheat sheet of the 25 to see which players are going under par the most at the Sentry Tournament of Champions:

So it makes sense that the top seven or eight on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,000
• Justin Thomas – $10,500
• Brooks Koepka – $10,200
• Jon Rahm – $9,800
• Rory McIlory – $9,600
• Jason Day – $9,000
• Bryson DeChambeau – $8,700

A happy New Year to you and happy picking in DraftKings for the year.

In looking at the prices for the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the first one Dustin Johnson at $11,000 is high, but warranted based on his history in the tournament he is worth the price because of his play on the course and his 5.67 parbreaker numbers per round So everyone needs to take a deep breath and make the decision to pay through the nose for a player who will do well or take the gamble that he will have a bad week, I think he will play well.  Now Justin Thomas at $10,500 is another serious question and yes he is worth the money based on his historic numbers.  Next is Brooks Koepka at $10,200 and he too is on paper worth the risk but doesn’t have much history at Kapalua, I feel he will play well and make good numbers.  Jon Rahm at $9,800 is someone that yes his parbreaker numbers at Kapalua are off the charts but he has only played twice.  His other key stats tell a different story that he won’t play well but right now Rahm along with Bryson DeChambeau are the hottest players in the field so it’s hard to go against those numbers.  Rory McIlory is at $9,600 and yes he scores lot’s of points and should do well, but this is the first time he is playing so I have to think twice.  Jason Day at $9,000 is another that is worth the points and historically does well.  Finally, we have Bryson DeChambeau at on the surface feels very cheap price of $8,700.  So on paper all of these players are worthwhile but the big question everyone needs to answer themselves, of these players who will take this week seriously and work on their games, a matter of fact we have to figure out which one of them had a great Christmas break and still worked on their games.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,500 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I like Webb Simpson at $8,500, his numbers are good and in three starts has finished 3rd so take him.  I would say no to Francisco Molinari at $8,400.  Think Kapalua isn’t very good for him and I fear he will get eaten up so take a pass on them.  Patrick Reed at $8,200 is an interesting problem, his stats say no but he is a past champion and was runner-up, so I say yes mostly on his cheap price.  Cameron Champ is also another interesting prospect at $8,100, his numbers in scrambling and proximity to hole are terrible, but his putting is strong and he is very high in parbreakers, so I say yes on him.  Gary Woodland at $8,000 seems good, he hits it a long way but I would take a pass on him, lot’s of other bad things and he hasn’t been very impressive in his two Kapalua starts.  Paul Casey at $7,900 and Bubba Watson at $7,800 are also no’s.  Matt Kuchar at $7,600 is a yes, he will score you some points and in six starts he has four top-tens.

*So are there any “Bargains” out there?

Lot’s and lot’s of great bargains out here, first Brandt Snedeker at $7,400 is great, his stats are good and historically he has done great things, so take him.  Same with Charles Howell III at $7,100, his stats are high and he will score you points.  Billy Horschel at $7,000 is also a bargain, makes birdies and has some high finishes, can’t go wrong with him.  As for the rest maybe Kevin Na at $6,900 he could surprise us.  As for Ian Poulter at $6,800 he looks like an interesting choice but I don’t trust him this time of year.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sentry Tournament of Champions:

Key stat for the winner:

The Plantation Course is not a driving course. A good driver has no advantage here so players just have to rear back and hit it as far as they can. The fairways are big enough to land a 747 on them and for those that miss the fairway, the rough frankly is of no worries, so this is one of the rare events that driving means nothing.  2013 was a perfect example, winner Dustin Johnson missed the most fairways of anyone in the field (missed 37 of the 60 attempts) but on the other end of the spectrum, Johnson’s average drive of 279.5 yards the second longest.  2017 winner Justin Thomas was T-17th in driving accuracy hitting 44 of 60 fairways while he was 3rd in driving distance for the week at 301.6 yards per drive.  But in the long run, hitting it long does not have that much of an advantage.

Again in some cases, stats are misleading because even though you can hit it long, the course is one of those that everyone hits all the greens so everyone is in the same boat.

So along with players hitting it as far as they can, also look for players hitting lots of greens. Since they are so large, averaging 7,200 square feet, you can see that players miss only three greens per round. So hitting lot’s of greens is a misnomer.  The average proximity to the hole is 43 feet, 8 inches so you can see that lag putting is crucial since only seven courses in 2017 had figures higher.

So two key stats standout as necessary, first approach putt performance which gauges who lag putts the closet to the hole? In 2017, those playing at Kapalua averaged getting their first putt within 2 feet, 6 inches away.  The other key stat is birdie or better conversion per greens hit, Kapalua was fifth as players birdied 32.34% of the greens they hit.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

Still, the king of stats is putting at Kapalua.  With big greens, putting is essential.

Look at Dustin Johnson last year.  He was T-8th in hitting greens and averaged 45 feet, 8 inches from the hole that ranked 24th.  So he won it with great putting he was 1st in putting average, 6th in strokes gained-putting and T-1st in 3-putt avoidance you can see how he won.

Every year we see how Kapalua is a very unpredictable place. The Plantation Course was built on the side of a mountain and is exposed to winds off the ocean, so if they get winds of 20 and 30 mph, which is common, the scores will climb. A perfect example of this was in 1999 when favorable conditions the first three rounds brought the scoring average down to 70.58. But in the final round, trade winds came, and the scoring average was two and a half strokes higher at 73.00. In 2000, all four days were played in high winds with the scoring average being 73.03 while in 2006 a combination 74.893 scoring average made it the fourth toughest course played on the PGA Tour in 2006. But the last seven years have seen significant changes.  Conditions couldn’t have been better, and the scoring average has gone down to the point that Kapalua is one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour over the last six years.  In 2013 with the poor weather and some wind, the course still played under par at 72.111 but wasn’t the easiest as it was ranked 32nd out of 43 courses.

So what does this year look?  According to the ten-day forecast on Weather.com, it’s going to be very windy Thursday and Friday, getting calm on Saturday and very peaceful on Sunday.

One important thing to look at is a player who ended last year strongly.  Those players are Jon Rahm and Bryce Dechambeau.