BlogAbu Dhabi Preview and Picks

The Buzz

A very important next two weeks for the European Tour it’s the desert swing.  With the PGA Tour beefing up the Florida swing with the Players Championship moving to March, it seems that the marquee players will be in the United States for most of March.  With that, there is Abu Dhabi and Dubai, along with a new event the Saudi International.  After that, the tour moves to Australia for two weeks and then the Oman Open and the Qatar Masters in March.  The only problem, since most of the marquee players will be in the United States, the fields will be very poor for the Oman Open, Qatar Masters, Kenya Open, Maybank Championship, and the Hero Indian Open, which will be played the same week as the WGC-Dell Match Play.  Now Abu Dhabi and Dubai have gotten marquee names in the past, but players like Francesco Molinari, Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy will not be at any of the events. Next week in Dubai, Bryson DeChambeau, Sergio Garcia, Ian Poulter along with Fleetwood, Hatton, and Stenson will be playing, but still, it’s not like it use to be.  In the past the three tournament Desert Swing was a big deal for the European Tour, taking players away from West Coast events on the PGA Tour.  But as an example, European Tour names like Justin Rose and Jon Rahm will be in Palm Springs instead.  Showing how weak the fields have gotten, in 2012 at Abu Dhabi 19 Top-50 ranked players were in the field (compared to 14 this year).

So the landscape of these events have changed, still the next two events are important as the Abu Dhabi purse will be $7 million and next week at Dubai the purse will be $3.25 while the week after that the new Saudi International will have a $3.5 million purse.  Another upgrade for the Abu Dhabi Championship it’s been upgraded to one of eight Rolex Series events.  Now many have asked why the tournament starts on Wednesday and ends on Saturday, that is to accommodate football’s Asian Cup which is staged in the Emirates.

Course Information – Abu Dhabi Golf Club

Part of a 27-hole club that was built and opened in 1998.  The course was designed by Peter Harradine. The course was carved straight out of the desert and requires about a half a million gallons of water a day to keep in shape.  The holes weave through undulating terrain that features pockets of palms, ornamental trees, and shrubs, as well as seven spectacular saltwater lakes. The course provides a tough but fair challenge, with lush fairways, water coming into play on 11 holes, 90 strategically placed bunkers and big greens which are Bermuda Tifdwarf.  Fairways are paspalum while the rough is Rye.

Since the course was first used 13 years ago, several changes are made each year with new tees adding more distance, bunkers have been changed, and greens changed to add more challenging pin positions.  In 2017 the players found a few new strategically positioned bunkers and a new 18th tee, which has been elevated to the left of the old tee and gives a unique and more challenging perspective to the closing par five.

Last year green extensions on holes seven and nine were the most notable changes — the seventh green has been extended increasing the putting surface. The ninth green has also been extended, again providing the opportunity for more challenging pin positions bringing the large greenside bunker into play.

Another small but notable amendment for 2017 is on the picturesque par-three fourth hole, where a slight change in the green contours adds to the degree of difficulty. Now a ball landing to the right of the pin risks feeding off the green and down the tightly mowed fringe to find the water hazard.  For the first time in a while players will see very little changes to the course.

DraftKings Tips

Looking for some good picks at Abu Dhabi

*Of the 132 in the field, 101 have played at least once at Abu Dhabi.

Here are the players that have played in two or more Abu Dhabi’s and had the most under par totals since 2010:

• Martin Kaymer is -101 under in 34 rounds playing 9 years
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello is -57 under in 34 rounds playing 9 years
• Peter Hanson is -53 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Ross Fisher is -52 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Branden Grace is -50 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Henrik Stenson is -50 under in 30 rounds playing 9 years
• Joost Luiten is -50 under in 28 rounds playing 7 years
• Tyrrell Hatton is -47 under in 20 rounds playing 5 years
• Pablo Larrazabal is -46 under in 30 rounds playing 9 years
• Thomas Bjorn is -46 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years
• George Coetzee is -45 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Bernd Wiesberger is -44 under in 24 rounds playing 7 years
• Thomas Pieters is -38 under in 16 rounds playing 5 years
• Tommy Fleetwood is -37 under in 20 rounds playing 7 years
• Maximilian Kieffer is -34 under in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Ian Poulter is -33 under in 16 rounds playing 5 years
• Dustin Johnson is -30 under in 8 rounds playing 2 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Dustin Johnson is -30 under playing 2 years (-15.0)
• Thomas Detry is -14 under playing 1 years (-14.0)
• Jeunghun Wang is -24 under playing 2 years (-12.0)
• Martin Kaymer is -101 under playing 9 years (-11.2)
• Dean Burmester is -20 under playing 2 years (-10.0)
• Wu Ashun is -10 under playing 1 years (-10.0)
• Richard Sterne is -19 under playing 2 years (-9.5)
• Tyrrell Hatton is -47 under playing 5 years (-9.4)
• Byeong Hun An is -16 under playing 2 years (-8.0)
• Thomas Pieters is -38 under playing 5 years (-7.6)
• Louis Oosthuizen is -15 under playing 2 years (-7.5)
• Paul Dunne is -15 under playing 2 years (-7.5)
• Ryan Fox is -15 under playing 2 years (-7.5)
• Ross Fisher is -52 under playing 7 years (-7.4)
• Branden Grace is -50 under playing 7 years (-7.1)
• Joost Luiten is -50 under playing 7 years (-7.1)
• Matt Wallace is -7 under playing 1 years (-7.0)
• Maximilian Kieffer is -34 under playing 5 years (-6.8)
• Peter Hanson is -53 under playing 8 years (-6.6)
• Ian Poulter is -33 under playing 5 years (-6.6)
• George Coetzee is -45 under playing 7 years (-6.4)
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello is -57 under playing 9 years (-6.3)
• Bernd Wiesberger is -44 under playing 7 years (-6.3)
• Thomas Bjorn is -46 under playing 8 years (-5.8)
• Henrik Stenson is -50 under playing 9 years (-5.6)
• Alexander Bjork is -11 under playing 2 years (-5.5)
• Tommy Fleetwood is -37 under playing 7 years (-5.3)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week looking at those making the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings

*Here are the guys that are very costly this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,600
• Brooks Koepka – $11,200
• Tommy Fleetwood – $11,000
• Henrik Stenson – $10,500
• Louis Oosthuizen – $10,200
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,800
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello – $9,600
• Matt Wallace – $9,400
• Thomas Pieters – $9,300

Usually, you would have to think twice about taking someone that is over $11,000. But in the case of the Abu Dhabi, I believe that most people will take either Dustin or Brooks.  Dustin Johnson at $11,600 has excellent results.  But it doesn’t matter, Johnson isn’t sharp and hasn’t been since the summer.  Now could he change, possibly but I just don’t think it’s worth the high price.  As for Brooks Koepka at $11,200 despite his previous visit in 2014 when he missed the cut he is a much better player and coming into the event playing well, he is tops on my list.  The third person on the list, Tommy Fleetwood at $11,000 is another good choice thanks to winning the last two times.  But you never know, between 2012 and 2016 Fleetwood missed four cuts in five starts so you never know.  I say no, he will get a top-ten in some manner.  Henrik Stenson at $10,500 is a big choice, yes he plays well at Abu Dhabi but he is a lot of money, save it for Koepka or Fleetwood.  Next up is Louis Oosthuizen, who at $10,200 is a big question mark.  He hasn’t played since missing the cut in 2011, but in 2009 he was runner-up.  Oosthuizen has to be reckoned with since in his last three starts he finished T-7th at the Dunhill Championship, won the South African Open and was 3rd at the Nedbank.  I say no but have to watch.  Tyrrell Hatton at $9,800 is ok in the fact that he has made 92 birdies in 20 rounds and is a total of 47 under.  But he really hasn’t contended inn his five previous starts other than finished T-6th in 2015 with a final round 67.  Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $9,600 is a possibility, not for previous high finishes at Abu Dhabi but for the fact that he has made 138 birdies and 3 eagles in 34 rounds.  Matt Wallace is at $9,400 and has played once in this event, finishing T-32nd last year, I say his price is too rich for me.  Now Thomas Pieters at $9,300 has some merit, he was runner-up in 2016 and T-5th last year.  I will find a way to add him to my team.

Here are those players with costs between $7,500 and $9,200 that are worth the price:

The European Tour is a mystery for a lot of folks, one of the things they have about 30 outstanding players, but when you get to the bottom of the food chain, they don’t hold the same status as those on the PGA Tour.

As for guys in this price range you can’t go wrong with Byeong Hun An at $9,100.  He is high but has some good finishes at Abu Dhabi and has contended several times in big events.  Another guy that is good in this event is Martin Kaymer at $8,900, yes he isn’t the same player he was when winning in 2010 & ’11, but he does have his moments was T-5th in Turkey and runner-up at the BVM International.  Lee Westwood at $8,700 is a good choice, has a runner-up in Abu Dhabi and has played well of late.  But my favorite choice in this price range is Ross Fisher at $8,400, he has some good finishes and is always a good choice.  Kiradech Aphibarnrat at $8,200 is also a good buy, he has played well of late and was T-4th in 2017.  Eddie Pepperell at $8,100 is a so-so choice because he has played well of late, but he hasn’t played well in this event.  One last prospect is Dean Burmester at $7,800, he was 7th in 2017.

Who are the “Bargains” out there?

Lot’s of great bargains, the best is Alexander Levy at $7,300.  He was 7th last year and has played well.  Hard to believe David Lipsky is available at $7,200.  Yes he has missed three of four cuts at Abu Dhabi but won his last start at the Alfred Dunhill.  Pablo Larrazabal is also a great pick at $7,200, his record is great in this event and was T-9th in his last start at the Dunhill.  Going ever lower is Bernd Wiesberger at $7,000, he plays well in this event and should be one of your picks.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Abu Dhabi G.C.:

Key stat for the winner:

In looking at the stats of the winners the last seven years, what sticks out as very important is hitting lots of greens.  Kaymer was T-1st in that stat in 2011, and every winner since 2009 except for Kaymer in 2010 and Pablo Larrazabal in 2015 finished in the top-12 in that category.  In 2016 Rickie Fowler was T-10th, while Tommy Fleetwood last won the last two years leading the category hitting 66 of 72 greens in 2017 and 63 of 72 last year.

Also important to look for length, since this is a desert course and will play firm, players that hit it far will have an advantage along with guys that play well in the desert.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

• Interesting to see how well all of the champions since 2009 has done on the par 3s.  2015 champion Pablo Larrazabal was 7 under on them, all of the winners since 2009 have played them under par.  Last two years Fleetwood won playing the par 3s in 4 under both years.
• Length is always essential as those in contention are high up in driving distance.  In looking at someone that has done well in that stat, Rory McIlroy got better each year in distance and finished  T5th in 2009, 3rd in 2010 and 2nd in 2011 and ’12.
• In the 13 years, the tournament has been played only once has a champion shot over par.  That was Martin Kaymer in the final round of 2008 when he shot 74, but the wind was gusting up to 45 mph that day.
• It’s unique to think that in the 13-year history of this event Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood has won it twice and Martin Kaymer won it three times, horses for courses.  Both Fleetwood and Kaymer are playing this year.
• Guess what the weather is going to be?  Easy, it’s going to be perfect with temperatures in the mid to high 70s and no rain.  But every day the wind will drive the players crazy, they are calling for between 10 and 20 mph each day so it will be very interesting.
• One last thing, it’s easy to say that Dustin Johnson will win.  His driver will give him a significant advantage as he can overpower the course.  But a case in point, yes Johnson has won in places like China at the WGC-HSBC Champions, he also won at Kapalua thanks to his driver.  I can see him playing well but not good enough to win.  But back to giving the trophy to Johnson guys like Gary Stal, Pablo Larrazabal, and Robert Rock were not consider “favorites” in the years they won, so the point is don’t be surprised if the winner isn’t a marquee name.