Torrey Pines South Key Fantasy Stats

Farmers Insurance Open

January 24th – 27th, 2019

Torrey Pines South Course

San Diego, CA

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,698

Purse: $7.1 million

with $1,278,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jason Day

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Torrey Pines South Course, based on data from last years Farmers Insurance Open, and using data from all the players in the field for with stats from 2018 and 2019. What we do is take their rank for each stat and average that number between players rank in ’18 & ’19.
Event is played on two courses, so the data are only for the rounds played on the South Course, not the one round data from the North Course
The scoring average of the field on Torrey South Course in 2018 was 72.81 making it the 8th hardest course on the PGA Tour. Weather for the week played very little in the result, yes wind gusted up to 25 mph on Sunday, but that played very little in the outcome. In 2017 it was windy each day and the average was 72.77 making it the 14th hardest course on the PGA Tour. It was almost 2 shots easier than in 2016 when it was the 2nd hardest course on tour with a 74.50. In that year they had high winds so severe that they had to finish the round on Monday, so that is the reason for the change. 72.80 is about the norm, but overall the score of the tournament has gone up resulting from the changes made to the North Course, which holds a round during the week. Before the changes before the 2017 tournament, the North Course was always a layup, the average score was 70.50. But with the changes made, in 2017 the North Course played to a 71.28 average, 32nd hardest and last year it was 71.41 and T-28th hardest. So for the players, the North Course isn’t the layup they remembered it being.
Now, our course key is based on the South Course which last year played to a 72.81 average, 8th hardest on tour. The course lies on a bluff over the Pacific Ocean, and winds tend to play havoc, along with possible fog this time of year. So you have to factor weather in looking for a winner. This year the long-range forecast for the week is pretty favorable, Thursday will be perfect; rain on Friday and 15 mph winds will play a factor along with 17 mph winds on Saturday. For Sunday look for partly cloudy skies with winds around 9 mph. So the course will play over par again.

In looking at the stats for Torrey South last year, driving is essential. In windy, dry conditions in 2016, the course ranked 30th in driving distance and 14th in driving accuracy. In 2017 it ranked 11th in driving distance and 8th in driving accuracy. Last year it ranked 31st in driving distance but was the hardest course on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy as only 48.82% of the fairways were hit. So you think that you have to drive it straight to play well on the South Course? Not really, in looking at all the champions of the Farmers going back to 1997, only two were in the top-ten in driving accuracy. Phil Mickelson was T-7th in 2000 and Ben Crane was T-8th in 2010. But in looking at the driving distance it’s a different story. Of the 20 winners since 1999, 12 of them were in the top-ten as last year’s winner Jason Day was 2nd. Now, Day beat Ryan Palmer and Alex Noren in a playoff, for Noren he was T-26th in driving distance while T-18th in fairways hit. Palmer was 8th in driving distance and T-10th in accuracy. So our first category is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
Another vital stat is proximity to the hole, both for those that hit the fairway, last year the field hit it an average of 39’7 inches to the hole making it the 8th hardest on tour. As for rough proximity, the course was 6th hardest with the field hitting it an average of 49′ 2 inches. So with hitting into the fairway and hitting it far, our second important stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green. Last year’s winner Jason Day was 59th in this start as he was T-11th in greens hit. In looking at the last seven champions only one, Jason Day in 2015 was in the top-ten (was T-8th) in greens hit.
Our third category is putting inside 10 feet. Several factors have made Torrey Pines the hardest greens to make putts inside 10 feet for the third year in a row. The main reason that this stat is so extreme is the fact that the greens are Poa Annua and since it’s close to the ocean, the greens are hard to judge and tend to get bumpy, especially late in the afternoon. Last year Torrey Pines South was the the 5th hardest in making putts inside 10 feet, and it was the hardest in 2016 and ’17 Last year Day shined in this stat ranking 1st in the field making 49 of 51 tries for the week. As for the other players in the playoff, Ryan Palmer was T-20th making 49 of 55 attempts while Alex Noren was 36th making 52 of 60 putts. So we can see how Day got into the playoff.
Our last category is scrambling manly because of its history lot’s of greens are missed, and Torrey is very tough to get it up and down. Last year it was the 19th hardest but in previous years in 2017 it was the 5th hardest, the year before it was 2nd and over the course of the previous six years, the course had been in the top-ten in this stat every year. As for winner Day, he was T-17th in this stat on the 23 greens he missed he got up and down 15 times.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats from players to do well at Torrey Pines South:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Green: It’s a combination of hitting it straight and hitting it far. Since Torrey is so long, you have to hit driver off of most tees. But the fairways are narrow, and the rough is hard if you get into it.

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: It’s a combination of hitting the green from either the fairway or the rough.

*Putting inside 10 feet: This gauges how many putts a player makes inside ten feet. With Torrey having Poa Annua greens making all of these putts is essential and a challenge for players.

*Scrambling: The South Course is hard in this stat, before 2018 it was historically very high in this stat as it was in the top-ten on tour between 2011 and 2017..

147 of the 156 Players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.