BlogDubai Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This event has always been one of the richest on the European Tour ever since it was first played in 1989.  Dubai is know for it’s wealth, it’s sky line is something out of a futuristic science fiction movie and you can buy just about anything know to humans, with the exception of alcohol which is scarce because of religious beliefs.  Over the course of the last 30 years, this event has taken a bite on whatever west coast event is played on the PGA Tour, those that run Dubai would pay top dollar for the best players in the world.  But things have changed in the last five years, Abu Dhabi seems to have more money and is doing a better job of getting better fields.  But even next week with the new Saudi International it seems that Dubai just isn’t in the same level in paying for star players  For the first time ever there is no top-ten players in the field as #14 Tommy Fleetwood is the highest rank player in the field.  As for American’s in the field, Bryson DeChambeau is the best American player in a field in which Sergio Garia, Ian Poulter and Henrik Stenson are your marquee names.

Course Information 

• Played at the Emirates Golf Club
• Doha, Qatar – Par:  72 / Yardage: 7,328

Emirates Golf Club, not only hosts the Omega Dubai Desert Classic but also will hole for woman the Omega Dubai Moonlight Classic in May.  It was the first all grass championship golf course in the Middle East when it opened in 1988. The club is part of a 54 hole facility with the Faldo Course and the Creek course, which held this tournament in 1999 and 2000.

The Emirates course was designed by Florida architect Karl Litten and lie amongst a plethora of sand dunes, on a site originally donated by Sheikh Mohammed Rashid Al Maktoum, on whose instructions was that the desert flora was maintained in its natural state. Within a year of opening, the newly christened Majlis hosted the inaugural Dubai Desert Classic in February 1989.  The sprinklers on the Majlis course keep the Bermuda grass growing, alongside the indigenous desert flora, giving a picturesque contrast. The lush fairways and large greens provide a formidable test of golf, guaranteeing a magnificent finish on the 18th hole, a long dog-leg, which has seen as many inspirational finishes as watery disasters in its 19 year history.  Other course highlights include the par three 7th and the gruelling par four 8th.

There are 5 lakes dotted around the course with water coming into play on seven holes.  There are only 41 bunkers on the course but something a bit unique, five greens with no bunkers guarding them.  There isn’t that much rough but if you hit it off the fairway you could find yourself in desert scrub which is sometimes harder to hit out of than rough.  The course is always in great shape and in a way follow the same creed as Augusta National in which the staff works hard to maintain this course in a manner that many feel it’s always the best manicured course on the European Tour.

Just like last week in Abu Dhabi the key to playing the course is to have windless conditions.  If by chance the area is hit by the Shamal winds it makes the course very tough, but this event has never suffered any weather problems.  In looking at the weather forecast, there is zero percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low 80s, with very little wind as it won’t get higher than 10 mph.

DraftKings Tips

Looking for some good picks at Abu Dhabi

*Of the 132 in the field, 111 have played at least once at Dubai.

Here are the players that have played in two or more Dubai’s and had the most under par totals since 2010:

• Stephen Gallacher is -94 under in 34 rounds playing 9 years
• Henrik Stenson is -89 under in 34 rounds playing 9 years
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello is -79 under in 32 rounds playing 9 years
• Lee Westwood is -71 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Bernd Wiesberger is -66 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years
• Thorbjorn Olesen is -57 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Andy Sullivan is -56 under in 20 rounds playing 6 years
• Martin Kaymer is -55 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Robert Rock is -55 under in 32 rounds playing 9 years
• Alvaro Quiros is -52 under in 28 rounds playing 8 years
• Tyrrell Hatton is -51 under in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Byeong Hun An is 45 under in 18 rounds playing 3 years
• Sergio Garcia is -44 under in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Maximilian Kieffer is -41 under in 22 rounds playing 6 years
• George Coetzee is -37 under in 16 rounds playing 5 years
• Alexander Levy is -36 under in 20 rounds playing 5 years
• Jorge Campillo is -36 under in 26 rounds playing 7 years
• Thongchai Jaidee is -35 under in 30 rounds playing 9 years
• Tommy Fleetwood is -35 under in 24 rounds playing 7 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Haotong Li is -26 under playing 2 years (-3.25)
• Byeong Hun An is 45 under playing 2 years (-3.10)
• Ian Poulter is -23 under playing 2 years (-2.88)
• Tyrrell Hatton is -51 under playing 5 years (-2.83)
• Andy Sullivan is -56 under playing 6 years (-2.80)
• Stephen Gallacher is -94 under playing 9 years (-2.76)
• Haydn Porteous is -27 under playing 3 years (-2.70)
• Henrik Stenson is -89 under playing 9 years (-2.62)
• Lee Westwood is -71 under playing 8 years (-2.54)
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello is -79 under playing 9 years (-2.47)
• Sergio Garcia is -44 under playing 5 years (-2.44)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week looking at those making the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that are very costly this week:

• Bryce DeChambeau – $11,300
• Sergio Garcia – $11,000
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,700
• Henrik Stenson – $10,300
• Louis Oosthuizen – $10,000
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello – $9,800
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – $9,600
• Tyrrell Hatton – $9,500
• Thomas Pieters – $9,400
• Shane Lowry – $9,300
• Matt Wallace – $9,200
• Joost Luiten – $9,100
• Haotong Li – $9,000

So you have a lot of good choices.  You know that between DeChambeau, Garcia, Fleetwood and Stenson they will be good, but frankly do we pick them?  First you have Bryce DeChambeau at $11,300.  Now he hasn’t been outside the top-25 in eight events going back to the start of September, winning 3 of them.  But he wasn’t sharp in his two starts in Hawaii and wasn’t good in Bahamas finishing T-12th.  In his only start at Dubai, he was T-18th in 2016 which sounds bad, but he shot 70-69-68-69 which isn’t bad.  So it’s down to this, if you are going to pay top money for him you what to make sure he finishes in the top-three, frankly I don’t think that will happen.  But one person that I think will do very well is Sergio Garcia at $11,000.  He won this event in 2017, won last January in Singapore and feel he can win in January of 2019.  Now one thing to worry about, in nine Dubai starts Sergio only has one top-ten, his win in 2017 but he has played well including a T-7th last week in Singapore and just like DeChambeau has been in the top-ten in his last six events going back to the his win in Valderrama in October.  Now while Bryce and Sergio have played well of late, Tommy Fleetwood has struggled.  Fleetwood is $10,700 and the big question is if he is worth that money this week.  Last week he was T-42nd in Abu Dhabi and even though he was T-6th last year in Dubai I am not going to pluck down the money for Fleetwood.  Another high paying guy I am not backing is Henrik Stenson, who at $10,300 is high and after missing the cut last week in Abu Dhabi I worry.  Yes he finished T-6th last year, 2nd in 2017 and T-6th in 2016 but he has been very inconsistent and that worries me.  On the other side of the fence, I like Louis Oostuizen at $10,000 even though he missed the cut at Dubai last year and in 2016.  He did finish T-3rd in 2008 so he can play well on the course and lately he has played well, finishing 4th last week in Abu Dhabi and winning the South African Open last month.  Another guy I like is Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $9,800.  He was T-6th in Dubai last year, was T-11th in 2017 and runner-up in 2016.  On top of that he won in 2012 so he likes the course and was T-11th last week in Abu Dhabi.  One guy I am on the bubble with is Matthew Fitzpatrick at $9,600.  He missed the cut last year in Dubai, but was T-5th in 2017.  He was 4th last week in Singapore and runner-up in Hong Kong so he will be good for you but again at his price it’s a toss-up.  Another toss-up pick is Tyrrell Hatton at $9,500.  The reason he missed the cut in Abu Dhabi and he has struggled since being runner-up at the Dunhill Links in September.  One thing on his side, he was T-3rd at Dubai last year, T-3rd in 2017 and T-8th and in all three events was 48 under so again it’s a toss-up choice.  I usually like Thomas Pieters who is $9,400 this week, but he hasn’t played that great of late.  Yes he has finished between 12th and 18th in his last four starts, but he has never finished great in Dubai and his best finish is T-23rd.  Shane Lowry is $9,300 and is the hottest player after winning in Abu Dhabi.  Only problem he has struggled in 4 Dubai starts and hasn’t played the event since missing the cut in 2014.  The only question, can he be picked with his good play last week, I say no.  Matt Wallace at $9,200 also has some issues, he was T-37th last year in his only Dubai start, and was hot at the end of 2018 with a 5th in Nedbank and runner-up at DP Dubai so I say he is probably worth the gamble.  Joost Luiten is $9,100 which is high for him.  But the price is based on him finishing 3rd last week so he is a tosh-up.  Now the defending champion Haotong Li is $9,000 and after missing the cut last week in Abu Dhabi I say no to him.

So we have to find a couple of good picks in the $7,500 to $8,900 range.  

Ian Poulter is $8,900, he finished T-6th last week in Dubai and T-6th last week in Abu Dhabi, so he could be a very good pick.  Thorbjorn Olesen at $8,800 is also good, he has had three top-tens at Dubai, but his only problem was missing the cut in Abu Dhabi.  But he played well before that. Byeong Hun An at $8,700 could be your best pick.  He has been very productive at Dubai, in three starts finished T-6th last year, T-4th in 2016 and T-13th in 2015.  Adding even more value he was 3rd in Abu Dhabi so yes he is a perfect fit for the week. Lee Westwood is also good at $8,600, he has been runner-up three times in 23 Dubai starts, he was T-16th last week in Abu Dhabi. Another good pick is Andy Sullivan at $8,400, he was 6th last year in Dubai and has played well this year.

Who are the “Bargains” out there?

I can never understand how week after week Alexander Levy is always a low price player  Levy is worth the $7,400 due to him finishing T-4th last year at Dubai and he has been ok the last couple of months.  David Lipsky at $7,400 is another good bargain, he was T-6th last year in Dubai and was T-16th last week in Abu Dhabi.  You have to remember last month he won the Alfred Dunhill, so for the price your getting a recent winner.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

What is the key stat that helps players win in Dubai?  Seems that hitting lot’s of greens is very important.  Of the last ten winners going back to 2009, all of them were in the top-19 (except last year when Haotong Li was T-46th) with Sergio Garcia in 2017 and Rafael Cabrera-Bello in 2012 both leading that stat.  Stephen Gallacher was 12th in both his wins in 2013 and 2014.  In 2015 Rory McIlroy hit 60 of 72 greens and ranked T-5th so it’s important that the winner hits lot’s of greens.  The following year Danny Willett was the worst of the pack, hitting 56 of 72 greens to rank T-19th.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• The Dubal Desert Classic has been known as a tournament that produces low scores as the winner has had an average score of 17 under par.  Last year Haotong Li went low at 23 under. In 2015 Rory McIlroy was 22 under while in 2016 Danny Willett was 19 under the same score that 2017 champion Sergio Garcia had.  Again watch the winds, that has a lot to do with the scoring.
• You can’t call this course a long hitters paradise.  Yes Alvaro Quiros won in 2011 averaging the best of those in the field and the same with Rory McIlroy in 2015.  In 2017 Garcia was T-2nd but the other winners have been in the middle in hitting it long.  Also hitting fairways is not very important and only one winner in the last seven years has been in the top-25 of this stat.  In 2015 Rory hit only 25 fairways and ranked T-65th while in 2016 champion Danny Willett ranked 10th in driving distance and he hit 31 fairways which ranked T-38th.  Last year Sergio Garcia had the best driving week of any champion hitting 39 fairways ranking T-2nd and driving it and average of 305 yards which ranked 3rd.  Last year Li was T-43rd in driving distance and T-14th in fairways hit.
• Mastering the par 5s is the key, last year Haotong Li played them the best at 13 under.  2015 winner Rory McIlroy may of only been 10 under while in 2009 McIlory played them in 12 under.  In 2016 Danny Willett was 12 under on the par 5s while in 2017 Sergio was 9 under.
• The only way that a winner goes over par in any single round is because of the wind.  Henrik Stenson in 2007 shot all four rounds in the 60s and it wasn’t until Sergio did it in 2017  Last year Haotong Li was in the 60s all four rounds.   Only 3 champions (Alvaro Quiros 73, 1st rd in 2011, Tiger Woods 73, 3rd rd in 2008 and Jose Coceres 73, 4th round in 2000) have had a single round over par and that was on a day of high winds.