BlogPebble Beach Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The PGA Tour season is just about a quarter of the way over,  13 events played, 33 left to play, we are seeing a different list of winners.  First, there are only 3 first time winners (Kevin Tway, Cameron Champ and Adam Long), there are two multiple winners (Matt Kuchar & Xander Schauffele) and nine of the 13 winners are in the top-ten of the World Rankings.  The reason for this, the top players are realizing the importance of playing early and as a perfect example, four of the five west coast swing winners are in the top-20 of the world rankings, again more of the top players are participating early and not waiting for the Florida swing.

What we learned from last week:

That Rickie Fowler could hold it together to win after leading after 36 holes and 54 holes.  Fowler’s final round 74 wasn’t pretty as he was able to endure a double bogey on 5 and then a triple bogey on 11.  Going into the 11th hole he had a 5 shot lead and by the time he got to the 13th tee, he was a shot back of Branden Grace.  But Fowler regrouped and played his last six holes in 2 under par to beat out Grace by two shots.  We honestly don’t know what this will do for Fowler who is probably one of the best players that hadn’t won in almost 2 years.  Since winning the 2017 Honda, Fowler had gone into the final round 16 times with the 54 hole lead or within 5 of the leaders, so it’s hard to believe that he took 16 tries before he won again.

So it’s easy to say that maybe the way he won at Phoenix will open up the floodgates to future wins but we thought the same when Rickie won the 2015 Players Championship.  We all know that Fowler is one of the best players in the game, but the game is about winning and Rickie has struggled to win.  In a way, it reminds us of Phil Mickelson, who struggled a bit, especially in the majors and when he finally won at the Masters, it opened up the floodgates.  Guess we will get our answer on Rickie in the four majors and if he can finally win one of them.  Any time Rickie wins is great for the game, people don’t realize how many under 25s that Rickie brings to the game.

How about the weather for the week?

The area was hit by a giant storm over the weekend which dumped close to 4 inches of rain between Friday and Tuesday.  The storm was so powerful that the area lost power between Sunday and Monday, winds were recorded at the peninsula were the 6th, 7th and 8th holes are at 78 mph early Saturday morning.  The Pebble Beach area had several down trees and the course pretty much came out with very little damage.  The hospitality structure between the 6th and 8th fairways was completely destroyed.  At the 17th hole, a giant tree fell and the wind caused minor damage to some sky suites near the 17th green and a giant video screen along the 18th hole was destroyed.  The other two courses came out ok, but rain on Monday caused the tournament to not open.  They were open on Tuesday, but it was still raining with 20 mph winds.  Now the good news, the rain will be gone for Wednesday and Thursday but there is a chance of more rain on Friday afternoon, Saturday and the early part of Sunday.  So this will be the week for mudders, as it will be wet and the ball won’t get any roll on the fairways.

Pebble’s best, Phil and Dustin

At the end of the last millennium, Mark O’Meara had the nickname of Prince of Pebble Beach.  That was thanks to his five wins (1985, ’89, ’90, ’92 & ’97).  Despite his five wins, in 26 starts he only had three other top-ten finishes, the best was a T-3rd in 1984.  But in the other 18 starts O’Meara wasn’t a factor so even though he won five times, his overall record didn’t show that he dominated this event.

But if you look at both Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson, these two have found a way to contend just about every time they started.  For Johnson he has played in 11 AT&T’s, winning twice (2009 & ’10), along with runner-up finishes in 2014 & ’18.  In 11 starts Johnson was in the top-seven for 8 of those starts.  Dustin also played in the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble and led after 54 holes but shot a final round 82 to finish T-8th.  So you can say that Dustin has dominated at Pebble.

At the same time, we can say that Phil Mickelson has also dominated at Pebble.  In 22 starts he won four times (1998, 2005, ’07 & ’12), has been a runner-up twice (2016 & ’18) and was 3rd in 2001 & ’04.  Mickelson has also had some history in the U.S. Open at Pebble.  He turned pro just before the U.S. Open in 1992 and shot 68 in his first round as a professional to finish T-3rd.  But he shot 81 in the second round to miss the cut.  Mickelson played at Pebble in the 2000 U.S. Open and finished T-16th, 21 shots back of winner Tiger Woods.  Mickelson fared a lot better in the 2010 U.S. Open finished T-4th, 3 shots back of the winner.  The point is, even though both Mickelson and Johnson will be looking forward to the Open in June, they are also looking forward to this week.

• 2017 – Rain on Thursday & Friday, finished 3rd, 7 shots back of winner Jordan Spieth.
• 2014 – It rained every day, worst was Thursday and Friday, finished T-2nd, a shot back of winner Jimmy Walker.
• 2012 – Rain on Friday and Saturday, mostly cloudy on Sunday with high wins, finished T-5th, 6 shots back of winner Phil Mickelson
• 2010 – Windy each day, Johnson won by a shot over David Duval and J.B. Holmes
• 2009 – Heavy rain each day, final round postponed to Monday but heavy rain canceled round, Johnson won the 54 hole event by 4 shots
• 2008 – No rain but windy every day, Johnson was T-7th, 4 shots back of winner Steve Lowery.

A special look at the U.S. Open

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am and the Farmers Insurance at Torrey both have the distinction of being able to hold two events in the same year.  One of the reasons for that is that both events are played on different courses but more importantly, Pebble Beach will play totally different this week than it will be played in June.  Mostly because of the time of the year, this week Pebble will be very lush with all the rain the Monterey Peninsula last gotten over the last couple of months.  The greens this week will be soft and hold shots, but the most important element will be dryness and wind.  So for those in the field thinking they will gain some important hints by playing this week, that just won’t happen.  When players return in June, Pebble will be completely different because of the way the USGA will set it up.

One last thing, since 1983 when Tom Kite won the AT&T the next ten winners also won a major championship and since 1983 of the 35 champions, 24 of them have won a major and 11 of them have won a U.S. Open.

Things you need to know about the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

This and the Desert Classic are the only events played on three different courses. Each player and the team will play one round at Pebble Beach (which is the host course), Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula C.C. After Saturday the cut are made, and the final round is played at Pebble Beach.  The AT&T is two tournaments in one.  The field is paired with an amateur partner and played the first three rounds together.  After 54 holes a cut is made, approximately 25 low teams of the best amateurs/pros will make it to the final day at Pebble Beach.

This is the last of the big time pro-celebrity events on the PGA Tour.  The Desert Classic, which was the Bob Hope used to have a good field of celebrities, but now the only one left in this event.  The bad news is that crowd favorite Bill Murray is not in the field this year.   ome of the celebrities playing are Andy Garcia, Huey Lewis, Chris O’Donnell, Ray Romano, and Darius Rucker. From the world of football Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo and Kelly Slater will play.

UPDATE: We just found out that yes Bill Murray is playing with D.A. Points, they won the team event in 2011.

For some, the AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am is the greatest.  Played at one of the most speculator places in all the world, on three of the most celebrated courses in the world.  On top of that, the Monterey area offers a lot to do with great places to go like the Monterey aquarium, some great restaurants, and bars plus you can’t beat a walk around the village of Carmel after the tournament is over.

For others, playing with amateurs in foursomes with rounds sometimes going six hours this isn’t their cup of tea.  Still, it’s a staple on the PGA Tour.

Course information:

• Pebble Beach Golf Links
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 6,816 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 74.4 rating and slope rating of 142 from the championship tees Pebble Beach Golf Links is a resort and open to the public.

• In 2014 the Pebble Beach was the 7th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.385 average.   In 2015 with perfect weather and no wind, Pebble was the 45th hardest course with a 70.241 average so three shots are easier than the year before.  In 2016 the course played to a 72.498 average ranking it the 16th hardest on tour.  Last year in good weather, but winds between 10 and 25 mph the course played to a 72.022 average ranking it the 16th hardest course on tour.
• The course was designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant in 1919,  Revised in 1928 by Henry Chandler Egan.  Between then and 1997 there were little minor changes done to the course.  But in 1998 the biggest changed happened when the par-three 5th hole was rebuilt.  The redesign was done by Jack Nicklaus, and the hole was relocated about 100 yards away, along with a 50-foot cliff over the Pacific.  At the cost of $3 million, the new hole could be one of the most expensive holes that hold a PGA Tour event.  It’s funny to compare the cost.  $3 million for one hole in 1999, the total cost to build the course in 1919 and that included the money spent on at the time was the first automatic sprinkling system in golf was a mere $66,000.
• The course is situated on the Monterey Peninsula, its 120 miles south of San Francisco, Pebble Beach is considered the most spectacular golf course in all the world.
• Despite the official name, the course is not a real links course because it is set on craggy cliffs above Carmel Bay.  Eight of the holes skirt the coastline, and it’s these holes that distinguish Pebble Beach.
• The land was owned by Samuel Morse who was the nephew of the inventor of the telegraph and Morse code.  Morse had an eye for the natural beauty of the Monterey Peninsula and bought 7,000 acres of the Peninsula, including seven miles of Pacific oceanfront for $1.3 million in 1915.  Morse then formed the Del Monte Properties company and had a vision of a resort with a golf course on prime acreage that ran along the bluffs above Carmel Bay.  Instead of selling the ocean front property for homesites, Morse built his golf course.  One of his real estate agents was Jack Neville who won the California Amateur Championship, and although Neville had never produced a course before, Morse decided to give him a chance to handle the design.  Neville asked another California Amateur Champion, Douglas Grant, to help him on the project and they spent a month routing the 18 holes.
• In 1918 the course was opened for play, but in the inaugural competition the course was deemed to be unplayable for the average golfer and was closed for revision.  Neville and Grant softened it up, and in 1919 it was again open for play.
• Over the course of the next ten years the course was modified by Neville and Grant, and in 1928 H. Chandler Egan, Robert Hunter and Roger Lapham strengthened the course for the 1929 U.S. Amateur.  Since then the course has remained the same, except for the redesign of the fifth hole, which is undoubtedly an endorsement of the sound design of Neville and Grant.
• Nine holes at Pebble are set along the rocky shores of Carmel Bay.  They are the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 17th, and 18th.  The 18th hole is considered by many as the best finishing hole in golf.  It was originally a par 4 of 379 yards until Egan changed it into a par 5 of 550 yards.
• Pebble Beach has held many tournaments, the U.S. Open (1972, ’82, ’92, 2000 and in 2010), the PGA Championship (1977),  four U.S. Amateurs (1929, ’47, ’61 & ’99), the 1989 Nabisco Championship and is the host course for the annual AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am which at one time was the Bing Crosby.
• The average green size at Pebble is 3,580 square feet that make the greens the smallest that are used on the PGA Tour.  The course has 92 bunkers, and water comes into play on nine holes along the Pacific.
• Now in June, the U.S. Open will be played back at Pebble so right now the course is being prepped.  In 2015 the 17th green was modified and rebuilt, over the summer the 14th green went through a severe change.  The green won’t have the drastic elevation change in the front, back right.  The bunker is still deep and tough, but the green will be a bit easier.  Another major change was to the 14th green, making the green a bit flatter and having more pin places.  After play finishes last year, the 13th hole will have some changes and be ready by the summer.
• Now the biggest rumor going around is to possible changes in the future of the 18th hole.  For 100 years this hole has been idyllic, one of the greatest par 5 finishing holes in the world.  But when the course first opened it was a 380 par 4, a year later then moved the tee back to the ocean and made it a par 5.  Over the years mother nature has played a factor, trying to reclaim some of its fairways and even the green, but the Pebble Beach company has shored up the shoreline, including a big wall near the green and down the fairway to protect it.  But with the long game being the way it is, the hole is easily reached in two, something that never happened till the last decade.  Now behind the green is a building that houses ten rooms of the lodge, having one of those rooms on the course is special.  In the back of the building is a home and large area that the rumor goes is being bought or has been bought by the Pebble Beach Company.  Supposedly the building with the rooms would be relocated in the area where the home is and a new 18th green would be built about 40 to 60 yards back and next to the ocean, thus bringing back the luster of the 18th hole.  Hope the rumor is true if so this is years away from happening and hopefully in place for the 2027 U.S. Open which would be played at Pebble.

Other courses used in the rota:

• Spyglass Hill Golf Course
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 6,960 yards     Par 36-36–72

The course has a 75.3 rating and slope rating of 148 from the championship tees.  The course resorts and open to the public.

• In 2014 the Spyglass Hill was the 11th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.755 average.  For the first time since 2010, Spyglass played under par in 2015 to a scoring average of 71.199, the 33rd hardest course on tour. Again more comfortable because of the great weather. In 2016 it was over par again as the course played to a 72.506 average, 15th hardest.  In 2017 it played to a 72.203 average making it the 20th hardest course on Tour.  Last year the course played to a 71.779 average and was the 22nd toughest course
• The course was designed by Robert Trent Jones and opened in 1966.  The course was the built thanks to Samuel Morse who had initially thought of creating it as part of the Lodge at Pebble Beach.  The course was to be called Pebble Beach Pines Golf Club, but Morse changed it to Spyglass Hill.  That was partly because of his friend Robert Louis Stevenson who got his inspiration for his book Treasure Island while visiting the area in which Spyglass was built.
• Spyglass is a mix of several different courses.  The first five holes go down through dunes and offer magnificent views of the Pacific.  The next couple of holes play back into the pines, still offering ocean views.  The last nine you wouldn’t even know that the ocean is a mile away, the holes play through Monterey pines.  Spyglass is a different course than Pebble.  While the greens at Pebble are small, those at Spyglass are large and undulating.  Weather is a big part of Pebble, while it can be blowing up a storm there, Spyglass that is just a couple of miles away could be calm.  When Spyglass first opened up it annually would drive the pros that played in the Crosby crazy and would be among the hardest courses on Tour.  It’s still one of the toughest courses on tour, but the course has softened with time, and now there is nothing but praise about the course.
• Monterey Peninsula C.C. Shore Course
• Pebble Beach, Calif.
• 6,958 yards     Par 34-37–71

The course has a 73.3 rating and slope rating of 133 from the championship tees.  The course is private.

• In 2014 the Shore Course was the 22nd hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 71.252 average.  But in 2015, again in perfect weather, the course played to a 68.936 scoring average as only two other courses in 2015 played easier.  In 2016 the course got tough again and played to a 70.699 average making it the 25th toughest on tour.  In 2017 the par 71 course had a 71.26 average earning it the 19th hardest course on tour.  Last year the course had a 70.058 average and was the 38th hardest course on the PGA Tour.
• Monterey Peninsula Country Club was founded on January 19, 1925. Samuel Finley Brown Morse, president and general manager of the Del Monte Properties Company.  The club has two clubs; the Dunes Course was originally designed by Charles B. MacDonald and Seth Raynor in 1925. The Dunes Course was redesigned and rebuilt in 1998 by Rees Jones and was the site of the Bing Crosby Pro-am for 18 consecutive years beginning in 1947, and then shifted to the Shore Course in 1965 and 1966. In 1967, the tournament was moved to Spyglass Hill Golf Course. The Crosby later returned to MPCC in 1977.
• The Shore Course, site of this year’s AT&T was initially designed by Robert Baldock and Jack Neville. Construction began in 1960, and the course was opened for play in 1961. Reconstruction of the Shore Course started in February 2003, and the new course was opened in June 2004. Golf course architect Mike Strantz created a links-type golf course on the Club’s ocean-side property. For the AT&T, the course will play at a par 71 and 6,867.
• Two things will come into play this week at the Shore course; one is how it won’t be protected from the elements of wind off the ocean.  The course it replaced, Poppy Hills was very well protected with big pines, but that won’t be the case here, so if you get unlucky and are paired on this course on a poor day, it could put you out of the tournament.  The second tough element will be the greens, they average 7,000, and Mike Strantz made them tough, and it will take much local knowledge to be able to read them.  Most of the pros in the field are making sure to play the Shore Course, and they all are saying the same thing; the greens will be tough this week.
• One thing that will make all three courses a bit tougher is the weather, the Pebble Beach area has been hit with 3 inches of rain over the weekend and since October 1st they have gotten over 25 inches of rain so the rough will be high and thick as  in past years.  Also, the courses will play wet and slow with all of the rain in the Monterey area.  So look for it to play a lot longer.

Of the 156 in the field, 125 have played at least once in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am.  Here are the players with the most under par totals at the AT&T since 2010:

• Dustin Johnson is -82 under in 35 rounds playing 9 years
• Jimmy Walker is -72 under in 35 rounds playing 9 years
• Jason Day is -69 under in 27 rounds playing 7 years
• Phil Mickelson is -69 under in 32 rounds playing 8 years
• Brandt Snedeker is -66 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years
• Jordan Spieth is -66 under in 24 rounds playing 6 years
• Patrick Reed is -48 under in 23 rounds playing 6 years
• Kevin Streelman is -47 under in 31 rounds playing 8 years
• Hunter Mahan is -41 under in 33 rounds playing 9 years
• J.B. Holmes is -41 under in 34 rounds playing 9 years
• Nick Watney is -41 under in 30 rounds playing 8 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Jordan Spieth is -66 under playing 6 years (-2.75)
• Jason Day is -69 under playing 7 years (-2.56)
• Dustin Johnson is -82 under playing 9 years (-2.34)
• Brandt Snedeker is -66 under playing 8 years (-2.20)
• Freddie Jacobson is -24 under playing 3 years (-2.18)
• Phil Mickelson is -69 under playing 8 years (-2.16)
• Patrick Reed is -48 under playing 6 years (-2.09)
• Jimmy Walker is -72 under playing 9 years (-2.06)
• Shane Lowry is -27 under playing 4 years (-1.69)
• Patrick Cantlay is -20 under playing 3 years (-1.67)
• Chesson Hadley is -23 under playing 4 years (-1.53)
• Kevin Streelman is -47 under playing 8 years (-1.52)
• Ryan Armour is -16 under playing 3 years (-1.45)
• Jonas Blixt is -25 under playing 5 years (-1.39)
• Trey Mullinax is -11 under playing 2 years (-1.38)
• Nick Watney is -41 under playing 8 years (-1.37)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings Picks

*Here are the guys that are very costly:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,400
• Jason Day – $10,900
• Tony Finau – $10,600
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,300
• Matt Kuchar – $10,000
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,800
• Phil Mickelson – $9,600
• Jordan Spieth – $9,400
• Patrick Reed – $9,300
• Adam Scott – $9,200
• Paul Casey – $9,100
• Chez Reavie – $9,000

Have to say that with his record at Pebble and winning last week in Saudi Arabia, Dustin Johnson at $11,400 will get a lot of play.  Making things more in his favor, Johnson does his best at Pebble when the weather is poor like it will be this week.  Jason Day at $10,900 is also a strong favorite when you consider that he was T-2nd last year, T-5th in 2017, T-11th in 2016 and T-4th in 2015.  The only thing that worries me, Jason may not be up to the poor weather.  I would avoid Tony Finau at $10,600, he has only played once at Pebble in 2016 but he has struggled this year missing the cut in his last start in Phoenix.  Tommy Fleetwood at $10,300 is a toss-up.  Normally I would say yes pick him, he will be great in the poor weather, but he hasn’t played well in his last four starts and is too high of a price to gamble on.  Matt Kuchar at $10,000 seems great on paper.  Has played well in 2019, but he struggled with the putter on Sunday at Phoenix and I also don’t like his AT&T Pebble record which has been poor.  I am usually high on Patrick Cantlay, but this week with him at $9,800 I am worried.  He hasn’t played well at Pebble, I don’t think the rain and chilly weather will help his back and he missed the cut at Phoenix last week, take a pass on Cantlay.  Now Phil Mickelson at $9,600 also missed the cut at Phoenix, but I like him this week.  He loves the course and usually plays well, so I think he will be in the running on Sunday.  Jordan Spieth at $9,400 is also a toss-up, he has struggled for over a year, but he usually plays well at Pebble and I think he will do well this week.  I can’t see Patrick Reed at $9,300.  His record at Pebble is ok, but nothing special.  For the year it’s nothing special and I wouldn’t touch Reed this week.  Adam Scott at $9,200 is also a toss-up, yes he seems to be playing better this year, he finished 2nd at Torrey two weeks ago.  But I fear that he hasn’t played well in this event, yes he has only played it twice but I still think he will be good this week.  The same with Paul Casey at $9,100, he was T-2nd in his last start in Singapore and was T-8th at Pebble last year, so take him.  DraftKings has Chez Reavie at $9,000 which is high for him.  But he was T-2nd last year at Pebble and T-4th at Phoenix and T-3rd at Sony so yes he is a good pick, despite the high price.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Branden Grace at $8,900 is high but warranted. He was 2nd at Phoenix playing good in the rainy final round.  He also was T-20th in this event last year so I say he is worth the money.  Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $8,300 is a good price, he was T-26th last year at Pebble and was playing great on the European Tour until he missed the cut at Dubai.  Still, think he will be ok.  Brandt Snedeker at $8,200 is a great price when you consider he has won twice in the last six years and has played ok this year.  Still, you’re taking him because of his good play in this event.  J.B. Holmes at $7,900 is also ok to consider he has played well in the past in this event and done ok this year.  Scott Piercy at $7,800 is also another good pick, has played ok this year.

What are the “Bargains” out there?

This event has a lot of great champions, remember this since 1983 23 of the 35 champions have won majors.  But at the same time underdogs have come through here.  Last year Ted Potter, Jr. wasn’t on any radar screens when he won, still can’t see that happening.  Since then has no top-ten finishes, he has three top-tens including a T-13th at Sony.  Also, remember that Vaughn Taylor beat Phil Mickelson with a putt on the 72nd hole in 2016.  Since then he has only had four top-tens, his best came three weeks ago when he finished T-7th at the Desert Classic.  When you think of 2011, he thinks more than Bill Murray won the pro-am, forgetting that his partner D.A. Points won.  Also, a couple of others that aren’t playing on the PGA Tour anymore, Steve Lowery won in 2008 and Golf Channel announcer Arron Oberholser won in 2006 and only played one round in that tournament since winning and was injury ridden.

So who are our bargains for the week?  I will say this, there aren’t that many which means you better be careful in spending for the star players.

You can get Ted Potter Jr. the defender at $7,400 but I wouldn’t take him.  Ryan Palmer at $7,200 is a good choice, his record at Pebble is ok and has been ok this year.  Jimmy Walker at $7,100 is your best, he has a good record at Pebble and been ok this year.  Kevin Mitchell at $7,100 is good, he makes lot’s of birdies and remember they play 54 holes before the cut so it may be worth it.  Steve Stricker will not make many birdies, but at $7,100 is a great price.  Patrick Rodgers is at $6,700 and finished T-8th last year at Pebble, in his last five starts he has a runner-up finish at RSM but missed the cut in his other four so again he could be a gamble.  After that Davis Love III at $6,700 is not a bad buy and how about Freddie Jacobson at $6,000, his last AT&T Pebble Beach start he finished T-4th but in 2019 he missed his first three cuts in 2019 and was T-70th last week in Phoenix.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

Key stat for the winner:

• The AT&T Pebble Beach brings on some special problems; it takes a lot of patience to endure this week with amateur partners.  Another problem is the luck of the draw; someone could be playing at Spyglass that is tree lined on the last 12 holes and may not get the brute of a heavy wind that some player’s encounter at Pebble Beach and Monterey Peninsula.  For some that play in the late afternoon, the conditions of the greens get dicey, especially since Poa Annua greens get bumpy and hard to predict.  So it takes a particular breed of player to endure this.
• This year is going to be a different test of than in past years.  Wet weather is on tap, with not only lot’s of rain with muddy fairways due to over 4 inches of rain in the last week so the draw will be key.  If you can stay away from Pebble until Saturday and Sunday, you will have an advantage. which is a rarity to go a whole week without but good temperatures with it being in the mid-60s each day.  Wind will also play a factor each day, along with temperatures not going higher than 55 so the bottom line look for high scores.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Unimportant stat: Except for Brett Ogle in 1993 and Dustin Johnson in 2009 those that have won at Pebble were veteran players.  The point here, don’t look for any inexperienced players winning here, in its history going back to 1950 only one pro has won on his first visit to Pebble, and that was Ogle.  Last year 34-year-old Ted Potter, Jr. won on his fourth try in this event.
• Now, this doesn’t rule out the fact that a rookie or a person with minimal experience could win. Look at D.A. Points in 2011; he missed three out of four cuts before winning.  Some could call this a flunk; I feel that having comedian Bill Murray as his partner helped him and without Murray, Points probably would have never won.  In 2016 Vaughn Taylor saved his career with a victory which did surprise many.  Last year Ted Potter, Jr. won in his ninth start in 2019.  It wasn’t that great of a year, he missed the cut in five events and his best finish was T-13th before winning at Pebble.
• Also look at Dustin Johnson who won at age 24 & 25. In 2009 Johnson was a surprise winner because he won due to the weather reducing the event to 54 holes, it’s always easy to win a tournament that you lead after 54 holes.
• The best-kept secret of this event between 1981 and 2005 none of the first round leaders went on to win.  But, Phil Mickelson started a trend in 2005 that 5 of the last 10 winners, Mickelson twice, Johnson twice, and Points in 2011 were in the lead after the first day.  In 2015 Brandt Snedeker led after the first and second rounds, then was T-2nd in the third round.  In 2016 it was back to normal as Taylor was way back after the first and second rounds and six back of the 54 hole leader, But in 2017 Jordan Spieth had the lead after every round, the first player to have the outright lead after every round since Mickelson did it in 2015.
• One streak that is on the line and looking to stay intact is that in the previous 59 years of the CareerBuilder Classic, nobody has ever won both the AT&T and the CareerBuilder in the same year.  Adam Long will be looking to break the streak this year and you can bet the farm that won’t happen.
• Putting is always a key at the AT&T especially since the tricky poa annua greens tend to get very bumpy in the afternoon.  Those that can deal with it will be ahead of the game mentally.
• Look for someone that either hits lots of greens or putts very well to win.  He also has to play very well over the weekend that seems to be the key to the rest of the winners.  Pro’s play Pebble twice, which has the smallest greens on the PGA Tour.  Because of that and the greens at Pebble don’t have many undulations, putting becomes vital in winning.  In making putts between 4 and 8 feet it has ranked one of the hardest courses on tour 5 of the last ten years, Last year it ranked 10th, while it was 2nd in 2017, while in 2016 it ranked 3rd.  In putts inside 10 feet, Pebble was 10th last year, 4th in both 2017 and in 2016, 15th in 2015, but first in 2014.   In putts outside of 25 feet it was 36th last year,  31st in 2017 and 9th in 2016.
• Lastly and very important, to win you have to make sure that you play well at Spyglass Hill.  In a way, that is the hardest of the courses, and a good round there gives you a big advantage.  A perfect example was in 2005 with Phil Mickelson, he opened up with a 62 at Spyglass, shattering it’s scoring record and could build upon that great round.

Now Spyglass is not the only secret, but also playing well on Monterey Peninsula is essential.  All three of these courses usually play to a total field average of par, since 2005 Spyglass has been over par 10 of the last 12 years.

What we did in the chart below was take the field average for that course and subtracted the winners score to figure out how many shots are picked up on the field and come up with a total shot gained on the field for these two rounds.  The findings are remarkable across the board for the 12 winners.