Club de Golf Chapultepec Key Fantasy Stats

WGC-Mexico Championship

February 21st – 24th, 2019

Club de Golf Chapultepec

Mexico City, Mexico

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,345

Purse: $10.25 million

with $1,745,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Phil Mickelson

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for Club de Golf Chapultepec, based on data from last years WGC-Mexico Championship, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2019. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The first thing to understand, this is just the third time that the Club de Golf Chapultepec is being used. Between 2007 and 2016 for ten years the event was played at Doral Blue just outside of Miami. The course is totally different and with the winds coming off the ocean, the conditions were totally different, so we really can only use the history of the last two events. The course, Club de Golf Chapultepec, is 10 miles from downtown Mexico City and is one of the countries most popular course. The scoring average of the field last year was 70.35 making it the 31st hardest course on the PGA Tour. But more importantly, the course played just under three-quarters of a shot of the average that it played in 2017, 71.05. So we can see one really important trend, the course got drastically easier the second time around and I can see the pro’s getting even better playing it a third time. We can see that the course is not the favorite of some players as Jason Day and Justin Rose took a pass. We knew that Adam Scott wasn’t going to play, he didn’t say it was because of the course but more a scheduling problem, but the fact is when marquee players don’t play it’s not that important, even when they can win a nod under $2 million.
Now last year Rory McIlroy and Henrik Stenson didn’t play and they are in the field, so that is good news.
The course has some things that help make this a “Bombers Course.” The biggest thing is its elevation, it’s just over 7,600 feet above sea level making it the highest course ever played on the PGA Tour. The last two years the course was lush and the ball had very little roll to it, still the course average drive on all the holes were 302.7 yards with it ranked 37th in driving distance for all holes measured meaning that only one course, Firestone saw longer average drives.
So we can see off the bat that the course is big for long hitters, especially since it ranks 18th in driving accuracy. One thing that is important is the fact that most players hit a lot of fairways and greens which makes you tend to think the course is not that hard. Now in the first year the one stat that showed why scores were low, in rough proximity the course was the 12th hardest meaning that they were able to hit it off the fairway but still hit the greens. Last year that stat changed as the course ranked 23rd in rough proximity which means the rough had more bite and the same this year, look for the rough to be a lot tougher making wayward drives pay a price.

In looking at the stats for Club de Golf Chapultepec, in 2017 the first stat that struck one is strokes gained Tee-to-Green as that stat was led by winner Dustin Johnson and five of those in the top-ten in this stat were in the top-ten of the tournament. But last year that wasn’t the case, winner Phil Mickelson ranked 12th and runners Justin Thomas ranked 3rd and five of the top ten were in the top-ten in this stat so it’s still important.
So if you hit it long off the tee, straight and hit lot’s of greens you should do good, but last year the secret for Mickelson winning, Justin Thomas finishing 2nd and Rafael Cabera-Bello finishing T-3rd they all putting the best of the other players in the field.
Now there is no stat in comparing how a player will do well on two different courses, but Club de Golf Chapultepec has a lot of the same characteristics of Riviera Country Club. Both courses have Kikuyu fairways and Poa Annua greens On top of that both courses have lot’s of stately eucalyptus trees so in looking for a winner think of players that also does well at Riviera. We talk about how important it is putting on Poa Annua greens and you can see that the two winners Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson won on Riviera which has Poa Annua greens, adding more to it both have won on Pebble Beach which also has Poa Annua greens. Now the difference was night and day on the greens for Johnson winning in 2017 and Mickelson winning last year. For Johnson in 2017 putts from ten feet and in, only one person missed more putts than Johnson. It’s hard to believe that Dustin won making only 61 putts out of 77, most of those misses coming from four and five feet, probably due to bumpy conditions. But on the other end of the spectrum, Johnson made four putts our of 7 in the 15 to 20-foot range and two out of 13 over 25 feet. One thing that Johnson did well was having 36 one-putts, which ranked T-5th. So even though Johnson was 21st in Strokes Gained-Putting, we are choosing this as our 2nd most important stat.
But last year Mickelson won due to on and around the greens. First, he was 2nd in Scrambling and in Strokes Gained-Putting he ranked 3rd. In putts inside ten feet, Mickelson made 65 of 69 which was 2nd best and he was good in the 10 to 15-foot range, making 4 of 8 and only made 2 putts all week over 15 feet. So we can see that putting is an important element in playing well this week. So these are the reason that Strokes Gained Tee-to Green is our first stat and Strokes Gained-Putting is our second stat.
Now are 3rd important stat is playing the par 5s the best. There are just three par 5s, one at 575, followed by one at 622 and then 625 yards and guess what, Dustin Johnson played them the best at 10 under in 2017, making ten birdies and two pars. Last year Phil Mickelson didn’t match Johnson but was very good playing the par 5s in 8 under, making 8 birdies, three pars, and one bogey. Overall the course played to a 4.71 average on par 5 average, ranking T-20th in 2017 and last year played to a 4.64 average and 29th hardest.
For our last stat, we have to go with Par Breakers, not because a lot of eagles and birdies were made on the course but the fact that Dustin Johnson was 2nd for 2017 in that stat and Mickelson was T-2nd last year. In 2017 six of the players were in the top-ten in ParBreakers while last year 8 of the 11 players in the top ten were in the top-ten in Par Breakers at the WGC-Mexico.

Now we can only hope that after two really poor weeks of weather that in Mexico things will be better. In looking at the long-range forecast, rain will not play a factor, with each day being in the high 70s. But the wind will play a factor, each day will be over 10 mph with Thursday seeing gusts up to 17 mph.

SO HERE ARE OUR FOUR CHOICES FOR THE MOST CRITICAL STATS FROM PLAYERS TO DO WELL AT CLUB DE GOLF CHAPULTEPEC:

*Strokes gained Tee-to-Greens: Important because it shows how important it is in playing Club de Golf Chapultepec. The stat is a combination of driving distance, driving accuracy and greens hit.

*Strokes gained Putting: The greens average 6,200 square feet, making them average on the PGA Tour. So it’s important to see who putts the best and picks up shots on the green. With bumpy Poa Annua greens it could spell the kiss of death if you don’t putt them well.

*Par 5 scoring average: All of the par 5s have length and even at high elevation two of the three are close to impossible to get home in two. So the ability to make birdies and eagles on them are important this week.

*Par Breakers: The course is not that demanding like last week’s venue Riviera. So with Club de Golf Chapultepec ranked 35th in this stat last year it’s important for players to make lots of eagles and birdies. Last year the field averaged making 3.79 per round and there were 26 eagles.

45 of the 72 players from this year’s field with stats from this year (no Tiger):

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.