TPC Sawgrass Key Fantasy Stats

The Players Championship

March 14th – 17th, 2019

TPC Sawgrass

Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,189

Purse: $12.5 million

with $2,250,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Webb Simpson

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for TPC Sawgrass, based on data from last years Players Championship, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2019. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field last year was 71.27, three-quarters of a shot under par making it the 30th hardest course on the PGA Tour. This is one of the reasons the course is changing from May to March, last year the conditions couldn’t be better, temperatures between the mid-80s to low 90s, but very calm winds that never got above 12 mph. In 2017 the scoring average at the TPC Sangria’s was 73.18, a shot and a quarter over par, making the course the 5th hardest course to score on in 2017. Because of winds averaging 20 mph on the weekend, that is the reason it was a full shot over the 72.05 average in 2016. So we can see one of the things that makes TPC Sawgrass unique, weather and wind. It’s about a mile from the Atlantic and if the wind blows, it plays tough. The course architect Pete Dye said many times over the last 35 years that one thing he kept in the back of his mind in designing the holes was the March winds Each hole is challenging with water on every one of them, but water becomes a hazard on 12 holes, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9,11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17 and 18. Bunkering is also hard along with chipping as most of the greens are raised so a shot missing a green is an adventure getting it up and down.
Between the first year, it was played at TPC Sawgrass in 1982 and 2006, it was played in March when conditions were totally different, due to higher winds and cooler weather. When the dates changed from 2007 to May, winds decreased and it was a lot warmer. You could say that the change of dates made the event play easier because of the lack of wind. So with the tournament moving back to March, look for drastically different conditions. In looking at the long range forecast for this week, it’s going to be dry on Thursday and Friday, but showers will move in for the weekend. As for the winds look for it to be steady at around 15 mph each day.

Still how much did the change of date cause the course to play differently? The winners have been pretty consistent as in most years hitting greens is very important. Between 1997 and 2006, seven of the ten winners were in the top-ten in greens hit, with four of them leading that stat. Since the change to May, of the 12 winners six of the winners have been in the top-ten with only one, Sergio Garcia leading in greens hit. Last year Webb Simpson was T-5th, but most of the time in the May dates it wasn’t that important.
In looking at our four categories, we have seen Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as very important. Yes, it was T-15th last year and T-11th on tour in 2017 but in 2016 it was T-2nd on tour so we pick that as the key stat. In looking at our past winners, last year Webb Simpson was 16th, but in 2017 Si Woo Kim was 2nd in this win while in 2016 Jason Day was 3rd. In 2015 Rickie Fowler won ranking 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2014 winner Martin Kaymer was 2nd in this stat while 2013 champion Tiger Woods was 1st. So you can see that Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green is very important in winning at the Players as proven in the five winners before Simpson won last year as they were no higher than 5th.
Next important stat is Proximity to hole. Last year it ranked 9th on tour with Simpson ranking 69th. In 2017 it ranked 2nd on tour with Kim finishing T-39th in that stat. In 2016 it ranked 14th on tour with champion Jason Day ranking T-50th in this stat. But in 2015 this stat was important in Rickie Fowler’s win, he was T-3rd while in 2014 Martin Kaymer was 46th while Tiger in 2013 was T-23rd. Still, since it’s important to hit greens and get it close we feel the importance of this stat.
Our third important stat is scrambling, since it’s important to hit greens and hard to do this, you have to be able to get it up and down on the greens you miss. Last year the course was 7th hardest on tour while Simpson was 24th. In 2017 the course was 4th in this stat while the winner Si Woo Kim was 1st in scrambling. For 2016 the course ranked 9th in scrambling, while we see that winner Jason Day was 1st in this stat. In 2015 Rickie Fowler was 10th while in 2014 Martin Kaymer was 4th and Tiger Woods in 2013 was 6th. So you can see the importance of scrambling.
Our fourth stat is something that was very hard to pinpoint. That is because putting doesn’t show us much and there is nothing that catches our attention in playing the par 3s, par 4s and par 5s. But one thing that TPC Sawgrass does give up is a lot of birdies. Seems hard to believe since the course is so hard, but last year 1,754 birdies were made as only four of the 51 courses saw more birdies made. Webb Simpson made 23 which was T-2nd. In 2017, remember the course played very tough, it had 1,429 birdies made making it the 17th hardest of 50 courses. One thing to realize is that the field is 144 players, while most events have fields of 156 giving it more chances for more birdies But if you look at some of the other courses that have had more birdies, they aren’t as challenging as TPC Sawgrass so that is why making lot’s of birdies is important. Now total birdies are very misleading since some players like Dustin Johnson and Adam Scott haven’t played as many events as those that play week in and week our. So our fourth important stat is birdie average, which is the average birdies made for each of the rounds. In looking at the last six winners, Webb Simpson ranked T-2nd while in 2017 Si Woo Kim ranked T-34th while in 2016 Jason Day ranked T-2nd in birdie average, 2015 winner Rickie Fowler was T-1st, Martin Kaymer in 2014 was T-9th and Tiger in 2013 was T-15th.
But the big thing to think about this year, the course will play totally different with not only the change of dates but the grass, which will be overseeded with Rye will also create different challenges.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: Course may have only been 15th hardest on tour, but you need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lots of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, last year TPC Sawgrass ranked 35th, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Sawgrass ranked 9th as the players averaged getting it 39 feet away.

*Scrambling: The percent of the time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better.

*Birdie Average: Takes the number of birdies and multiplies it by the number of rounds so that we can see what the average of birdies are made per each round. Last year 1,754 birdies were made making it a 4.00 average per player.

Here are the 135 of 144 players from this year’s field with stats from 2019:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.