BlogRBC Canadian Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The Canadian Open got a great change of date, going from the week after the British Open to the week before the U.S. Open.  Now the change doesn’t show this year because the U.S. Open is on the other side of the country and the Hamilton Golf & C.C. is not a perfect place to get ready for a U.S. Open at Pebble, but I can see how this change will help the Canadian Open in future years.  In the past the Canadian Open was a must go to an event, in some people’s minds it was a step below a major.  But in 1988 it was switched to September and stayed there until it shifting to July and the week after the British Open in 2007.  This was a dead spot, even with the jet flying people from the British to Canada, nobody wanted to play the week after a major when a WGC was the next week and the PGA Championship two weeks later.  So I can see fields getting better, especially starting next year when the U.S. Open goes to courses like Winged Foot which is like the courses that hold the Canadian Open.  Talking about future venues, Hamilton will be played again in 2023 with St. George’s Golf and Country Club holding the 2020 and ’24 events.  Now nothing has been said, but it’s hoped that the 2021 or ’22 event goes back to Glen Abbey, whose future isn’t very bright considering that it’s in the hands of the courts. The company that owns it ClubLink is trying to develop on the property and replace Glen Abbey with about 3,000 homes.  The community has been fighting them tooth and nail, but it’s only a matter of time.

But the good news right now is the change of date will help this event in future years.

RBC Canadian Open

First played in 1904, only the British Open, U.S. Open, and BMW (old Western Open) are older.  To think that 109 have been played, the good news with a great sponsor of RBC, along with a list of great courses that will hold the tournament, this will turn into a more important tournament in future years.

Course information:

• Hamilton Golf & Country Club
• Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
• 6,967 yards     Par 35-35–70
• This year’s Canadian Open moves back to Hamilton Golf & C.C., a private course just 45 minutes outside of Toronto. One of Canada’s most prestigious and historic clubs, Hamilton Golf and Country Club is one of the 10-founding clubs of the Royal Canadian Golf Association. Opened for play in October 1894, the original 12-hole course was located next to the Hamilton Jockey Club. After only one full season the club moved to a new 18-hole course at the base of the escarpment in the western part of Hamilton, then moved again in 1916, this time to its permanent home in Ancaster. The original 18 holes at the Ancaster site were designed by noted English golf course architect Harry Colt,  whose other works include the Eden course at St. Andrews, Royal Portrush, Toronto Golf Club and St. George’s CC. A third nine was added to the layout in 1975.
• The 2003 Bell Canadian Open was played there so this will only be the fourth time that the Canadian Open has been staged at Hamilton.  The first one saw J. Douglas Edgar win by a record 16 strokes in 1919, Tommy Armour won the event in 1930 while Bob Tway beat Brad Faxon in a playoff in 2003.  Jim Furyk won in 2006 and Scott Piercy won it the last time the RBC Canadian Open was played at Hamilton in 2012.
• Now the bad news, the area suffered a rough winter.  With ice and snow covering the ground, a chemical reaction caused damage to the greens.  They are better but won’t be perfect for this week.  For those that played the course in the 2012 RBC Canadian Open, they probably won’t recognize the course since the club has taken down over a 1,000 trees since 2012.  They did this to help the course get more sun and to bring the course back to the original Harry Colt design.
• In looking at Hamilton one thing is certain, it’s not a power dominated course, it’s an old classic design.  Just like Colonial, nine of the holes have sharp doglegs and will be hard to keep the ball in the fairway (1, 2, 3, 7, 10, 11, 12, 15 and 18).  The 5th hole is short and can be driven, but if you don’t hit a great shot you will have problems making par.
• So driving it straight is very important probably the reason Bob Tway, Jim Furyk and Scott Piercy are past winners of the Canadian Open held at Hamilton.  The par 3 is also very demanding and the two par 5s aren’t automatic birdie holes.  It’s important to hit lot’s of greens, but the most important element of playing well at Hamilton was putting, both Jim Furyk in 2006 and Scott Piercy in 2012 had good putting weeks.  In looking at the course stats from 2012 Hamilton was the 18th straightest course on tour and the 32nd in greens hit.  Hamilton was 37th in scrambling and putting average they were T-13th.  In putts inside ten feet, the course was 10th on tour meaning that players put well at Hamilton.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,900
• Brooks Koepka – $11,700
• Rory McIlroy- $11,200
• Matt Kuchar – $10,500
• Justin Thomas – $10,000
• Webb Simpson – $9,700
• Sergio Garcia – $9,500
• Scott Piercy – $9,300
• Henrik Stenson – $9,100
• Brandt Snedeker – $9,000

I can tell you off the bat that I don’t like the prices that DraftKings is giving us.  Yes, they are fair, I just think that they are too high and even my one great sleeper pick of Scott Piercy is too high.  They have Dustin Johnson at $11,900, this is the problem.  You get $50,000 to play with and with six picks that comes out to an average per player of $8,333.  If you pick Johnson to level it off, you have to pick someone at $4,800 and they have no one at that level.  What you can usually do is get two players over $9,000 if you’re careful, but there is no way to do this.  For a player like Johnson to be so high, he has to have a 1 in 3 chance of winning and I can’t say that for Johnson.  Now Brooks Koepka at $10,700 can be justified when you consider how well he has played but again winning isn’t really on Koepka or any of the marquee names minds.  They are looking to play good enough to boast them with confidence to Pebble.  Last month Koepka was in contention and shot 65 in the final round at the Byron Nelson to finish 4th.  He had no stress and didn’t have to use up brain cells to win the tournament which would have taken some of the edges off for the PGA Championship.  Instead, he played great over the weekend and gave himself a lot of confidence going into the PGA and went on to win.  So yes you can pick him but it’s a lot of money, I say no.  Now Rory McIlroy at $11,200 is also too much, hey he missed the cut at the Memorial and looked terrible so I’m not going to pick Rory.  As for Matt Kuchar at $10,500 I took him in my big pool last week and he missed the cut.  Normally I would say Kuchar is a good pick for this week, but at the price, I am worried and not taking him.  Justin Thomas at $10,000 is also not wise because you just don’t know about the wrist.  Sergio Garcia is $9,500 and I would say maybe on this course, but in seeing that he missed the cut at Bethpage I can’t pick him either.  So of the top-seven, I am not taking a single person.  Now Scott Piercy is $9,300 which is high for him but I like him a lot.  He won on this course in 2012 and has played well this year, so this is a good pick.  Now Henrik Stenson is high at $9,100, he has never played in the Canadian Open and only has one top-ten this year in the match play, so the answer is no to him.  We are down to Brandt Snedeker at $9,000.  He has won the Canadian Open in 2013 and was T-34th at Hamilton, shooting 66 in the final round.  For the year his play has been mixed, but good enough to say pick him.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

So that means we have to find a lot of players in the $8,900 level or lower.  First I like Jim Furyk at $8,800, he won at Hamilton in 2006 and even though he missed the cut in 2012 I still like him.  He had a good streak that almost got him into the Masters, but since missed three cuts including the PGA Championship.  But he was T-13th at the Charles Schwab and T-33rd last week at Memorial so he is worth the pick.  Now Jason Dufner at $8,700 is a possibility, he plays well on tough courses and was T-4th at the Wells Fargo and T-7th at the Memorial.  He came out of nowhere last year to win the Memorial, he could do it again this week.  Bud Cauley is at $8,400 and a good buy.  He has come back from injury and he was T-7th last week at the Memorial.  Also like the part that he was T-4th at Hamilton in 2012 which tells us he likes the course, take him.  Ryan Palmer is $8,200 and a good buy, was T-8th last week at the Memorial and finished T-19th at Hamilton in 2012.  Now Jimmy Walker is at $7,900 and has been ok this year and played good in Canada.  Now a sleeper pick that nobody will see is Erik Van Rooyen at $7,800.  He was 2nd in Morocco and T-8th at the PGA Championship and I like his game.  Graeme McDowell at $7,600 is also worth the gamble.  He makes a fair amount of birdies and I am just thinking he will make the cut and help you.  Our token Canadian is Mackenzie Hughes at $7,500 who finished T-8th at the Colonial and played at Hamilton in 2012 and missed the cut.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the RBC Canadian Open

Peter Uihlein is at $7,400 and his game is coming around of late, worth a try.  Boy, the pickings are slim in this category the only other pick I see is Nate Lashley at $6,700.

In looking at how poor the pickings are this may be a week to take off and save some money for the U.S. Open.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Canadian Open:

The key stat for the winner:

• Those that have played the course before will have a slight edge but the key to the course will be for those to manage the par 4s.  There are 12 of them and they range from 337 to 481.  The 5th and the 12th are the only one’s under 400 yards.  So that means ten holes over 400 yards with five of them over 440 yards.  So if you can manage the par 4s, you will do well this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• The course has many doglegs and holes that long hitters won’t have room.  So look for a lot of layups and players like Dustin and Brooks hitting irons off the tee.  Hamilton won’t have to worry about being a bombers course because you have to keep it in the fairway.
• Greens are contoured and well bunkered which means that those that scramble will do very well.
• Putting seems to be the key to success at Hamilton.  Those that putt well will get the nod over players that hit lots of greens.  So a good putter and scrambler will prevail this week.
• With a field that isn’t loaded with marquee names, I would say a first-time winner is very probable.  That tends to be the trend on the PGA Tour when a new course is used, a rookie tends to win.
• Now we tend to forget that this is the national open of Canada but it’s been a while since a Canadian has one it.  You have to go back to 1954 when Pat Fletcher won it.  Mike Weir came close to winning in 2004, only to give up a lead on the final holes and then lose a playoff to Vijay Singh.  Other than that it’s been a bit bare as Dave Barr finished T4th in 1988, while David Morland IV finished T5th in 2001.   Now Weir has always been the sentimental choice of this event, but his game is up to playing the PGA Tour and he has missed the cut his last three years.  A couple of Canadian players to watch this week, Adam Hadwin, Mackenzie Hughes, and Corey Connors.
• The PGA Tour has been very lucky the last four or so weeks missing out on storms. Last week they played with no delays, something that is strange for the Memorial.  In looking at the weather forecast for this week is that each day will be great, with temperatures in the high 60s.
• The biggest tip I can give you with this tournament going to a course that many haven’t seen.  Check the who’s hot list, if a player is doing well over the last six weeks, he will probably play well this week.