BlogU.S. Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Have to say it’s a bit sad this year at the U.S. Open, the storyline is more about will the USGA have another problem this year with either a bad course setup or rules problem.  We can go on forever with all of the problems, last year Shinnecock Hills got away from them as one green was unputtable on Saturday.  In 2017 many of the players complained that the course setup was too easy, that the fairways were too wide and favored long hitters.  In 2016 it was the rules problem with Dustin Johnson, in 2015 it was the poor greens at Chamber Bay.  I can go on forever, in some cases, the USGA are their worst enemies.

What makes things sad, take away the Masters because it’s played on the same course every year, but the PGA of America and the R&A have had no problems with their courses or rules in over a decade.  So if they could do a great job and hold great championships, why can’t the USGA?  The problem stems with the USGA overthinking things, they try to put on this great front in which they have to set up the course perfectly and at the same time make it tough, to in their words “try to identify the best winner.”  Sorry, this Philosophy doesn’t fly anymore because there are so many elements that have to go into setting up a course from weather issues to worrying that a gold course could be too easy.  In talking with officials of both the R&A and the PGA of America they all say that they are looking for a fair course that isn’t tricked up and at the same time give the players a challenge.  As former R&A secretary Peter Dawson told me a few years ago, “If a player goes low it doesn’t bother us, we are privileged to see a player do so well and shake their hands telling them, Job well done.”

So on the eve of another U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, we can only hope that the USGA gets it right.  Now the thing that makes Pebble super tough to set-up is predicting the weather.  As of today, it was 70 degrees at Pebble with clear skies.  But it’s supposed to get hotter over the next couple of days, with warm weather brings fog and possible wind.  Right now each day is supposed to be warm and dry, with temperatures in the mid-60s with 8 to 12 mph winds.  But again the weather is always a changing thing in this part of the country.

Before we look at some of the great storylines, we have to look at the course itself.  Pebble Beach is the holy grail of American golf.

Forgot what you are told about Shinnecock, Pine Valley or Augusta National, Pebble Beach is the best course in America if you take into consideration course routing, the character of holes and the scenic beauty of the course that is just on the Pacific Ocean.  Everything is purely natural and there isn’t one contrived hole at Pebble.  With the way the course is laid out, it has the natural mannerisms of a links course in which a player must show some imagination and thought to play.

On paper Pebble’s total length of 7,075 yards is still short under today’s standards.  To combat this, officials look at mother nature for a helping hand.  If they can get winds in the 15 mph area, the course will be challenging.  But if the course gets no wind it will be eaten alive by the best players in the world with the most up to date equipment.

Now for those thinking that the players see Pebble every year for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am, they will have a big advantage that isn’t the case.  The course for this week is totally different than it was back in January.  Back then it was a par 72, the 2nd hole is coveted into a par 4 for this week.  The rough will be higher and the fairways tighter and narrow compared to January.  But the greens will be different, they will be harder and faster this week.  In some ways, players will see a major difference in courses.

So who will win is the million dollar question.  I can unofficially say this when the course is easy you seem to get more marquee names winning.  Just look at Congressional, Rory McIlroy won, Tiger won at Torrey, Jordan won at Chamber Bay.  Then on the hard courses like Bethpage in 2009, Lucas Glover, Pebble in 2010 Graeme McDowell and Webb Simpson in 2012 at Olympic.  Again no rhyme or reason but you get what I mean.

One last thing about this week that shows more parity. This year there are 39 U.S. Open rookies.  This is a drastic change from last year when 50 of the 156 players were U.S. Open rookies.  This number seems remarkable until you realize it’s par for the U.S. Open.  In 2017 there were 52 U.S. Open rookies, in 2016 there was 51, in 2014 there were 53 rookies. All of these are extraordinary numbers.  In the history of the U.S. Open, the year with the most first-timers was 86 in 1919.  That was the first Open played after World War I and the field increased in size.  If you look at the most first-timers since World War II, it was 75 in 1948.

Looking at the U.S. Opens since 1970 the most first-timers were 53 in 1977, 1980, and 2011.  Why the change is a mystery but one thing is for sure, there are more players with a chance of winning this year.

Championship information:

The inaugural U.S. Open was slated for September of 1895. However, the Open, as well as the inaugural U.S. Amateur, were delayed due to a scheduling conflict with the more popular sporting event, America’s Cup yacht races. Finally, the first U.S. Open was played on Oct. 4, 1895, on a nine-hole course at the Newport Golf and Country Club in Newport, Rhode Island. The first U.S. Open was somewhat overshadowed by the first U.S. Amateur tournament, which was played concurrently at the Newport Golf and Country Club. Its little field consisted of just 10 professionals and one amateur. Horace Rawlins, the assistant at Newport Golf and Country Club, captured the first U.S. Open. The format for the tournament was 36 holes squeezed into one day, with four trips around the nine-hole course in Newport.

In 1898, the U.S. Open switched to a 72-hole format, two days of 36-holes. For the first few years, the field was routinely riddled with amateurs as well as British and Scottish professionals. The popularity of the event dwindled until Americans began to dominate, starting with John McDermott in 1911. The U.S. Open experienced a dramatic jump in popularity in 1913 when Francis Ouimet, a 20-year-old American amateur, defeated famed British professionals Harry Vardon and Ted Ray in a playoff. Popularity for the U.S. Open began to soar even higher in the early 1920s. In 1922, the U.S. Open sold tickets to the event for the first time. A year later, Bobby Jones, an amateur golfer from Georgia won his first of four U.S. Opens. By 1924, an enormous influx of applicants to compete in the U.S. Open forced the USGA to hold sectional qualifying to determine who would receive an entry into the field.

In 1926, the format for the tournament was again switched. Players would play 72 holes; 18 holes on each of the first two days, followed by 36 holes on the third and final day. The changes to the U.S. Open format were paralleled by an almost systematic phase-out of the amateur player. Though amateurs still compete annually, John Goodman was the last amateur to win the U.S. Open, taking the 1933 crown at the North Shore Country Club in Glenview, Illinois. Jack Nicklaus’s second-place finish at the 1960 U.S. Open is the best finish by an amateur since Goodman’s victory in 1933.

The U.S. Open saw relatively few changes between 1935 and 1954. In 1954, the course was roped off from tee to green for the first time, as well as broadcast on national television. Arnold Palmer’s historic comeback victory in 1960 further boosted the tournament’s popularity. But it was the 1962 U.S. Open, in which Jack Nicklaus defeated Arnold Palmer in a Monday playoff, that would catapult “America’s Championship” to the forefront of the golf world.

Over the next 18 years, from 1962 to 1980, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer combined to win four U.S. Opens. Fans flocked to the U.S. Open in droves to see the budding rivalry. In 1965, to accommodate the growing fan base, the U.S. Open switched from the three-day, 72-hole format to the current, four-day, 72-hole format.

In 1971, Lee Trevino’s victory at the U.S. Open was the catalyst as he went on to play, arguably, the three most significant weeks of golf. After winning the U.S. Open, Trevino went on to capture the Canadian Open crown, followed by the British Open crown. A feat that to this day has not been matched. Trevino, as well as the already well-established Nicklaus and Palmer, created a trio that further launched the event into the American limelight. In 1977, ABC began live coverage of the final two rounds of U.S. Open play. By 1982, upstart cable channel ESPN was broadcasting the Thursday and Friday rounds.

In 1994, the U.S. Open at Oakmont was the venue for Ernie Els’ first victory in America. Els and Loren Roberts both shot 74, while Colin Montgomerie shot a 78. Els claimed the title by defeating Loren Roberts on the second sudden-death playoff hole.  Els and a slew of other foreign champions paved the way for the first qualifying tournaments held outside the United States.

But for the masses, nothing will compare to Tiger Woods’ victory in 2000 at Pebble Beach.  First of all, it was the 100th U.S. Open. Secondly, it was held on one of the great courses in the world that comprised the beauty of an oceanside course that stunned the viewers and fans but on a tough course in which wind played an important factor. It was also perfect timing for Tiger Woods to win his first Open title in a dominating way. At 12 under, he finished 15 strokes ahead of Ernie Els and Miguel Angel Jimenez to become the first double-digit winner relative to par.  The win brought the U.S. Open into a different focus as it began its second decade of play.

Course information:

• Pebble Beach Golf Links
• Pebble Beach, Ca.
• 7,075 yards
• Par will be 35 – 36  = 71
• Based on the course setup for the championship, the Course Rating is 76.4. Its Slope Rating is 149.

USGA Championships held at Pebble Beach

• 1929 U.S. Amateur: Harrison R. Johnston def. Dr. O.F. Willing, 4 and 3
• 1940 U.S. Women’s Amateur: Betty Jameson def. Jane S. Cothran, 6 and 5
• 1947 U.S. Amateur: Robert H. (Skee) Riegel def. John W. Dawson, 2 and 1
• 1948 U.S. Women’s Amateur: Grace S. Lenczyk def. Helen Sigel, 4 and 3
• 1961 U.S. Amateur: Jack Nicklaus def. H. Dudley Wysong Jr., 8 and 6
• 1972 U.S. Open: Jack Nicklaus by three strokes over Bruce Crampton (290-293)
• 1982 U.S. Open: Tom Watson by two strokes over Jack Nicklaus (282-284)
• 1992 U.S. Open: Tom Kite by two strokes over Jeff Sluman (285-287)
• 1999 U.S. Amateur: David Gossett def. Sung Yoon Kim, 9 and 8
• 2000 U.S. Open: Tiger Woods by 15 strokes over Ernie Els, Miguel Angel Jimenez (272-287) 2010 U.S. Open: Graeme McDowell by one stroke over Gregory Havret (284-285)
• 2018 U.S. Amateur: Viktor Hovland def. Devon Bling, 6 and 5

Players Who Competed in 2010 U.S. Open and are playing this week (32): Byeong Hun An (Cut), Joseph Bramlett (Cut), Rafa Cabrera Bello (T-47th), Paul Casey (T-40th), Brian Davis (Cut), Luke Donald (T-47th), Jason Dufner (T-33rd), Ernie Els (3rd), Jim Furyk (T-16th), Sergio Garcia (T-22nd), Lucas Glover (T-58th), Dustin Johnson (T-8th), Zach Johnson (T-77th), Martin Kaymer (T-8th), Matt Kuchar (T-6th), Mark Leishman (Cut), Graeme McDowell (Won), Rory McIlroy (Cut), Phil Mickelson (T-4th), Francesco Molinari (Cut), Kevin Na (Cut), Louis Oosthuizen (Cut), Ian Poulter (T-47th), Andrew Putnam (Cut), Rory Sabbatini (Cut), Adam Scott (Cut), Brandt Snedeker (T-8th), Henrik Stenson (T-29th), David Toms (T-33rd), Mike Weir (T-80th), Gary Woodland (Cut), Tiger Woods (T-4th).

Players Who Competed in 2000 U.S. Open and are playing this week (9): Aaron Baddeley (Cut), Ernie Els (T-2nd), Jim Furyk (60th), Sergio Garcia (T-46th), Phil Mickelson (T-16th), Rory Sabbatini (Cut), Davis Toms (T-16th), Mike Weir (T-16th), Tiger Woods (Won).

Players Who Competed in 1992 U.S. Open and are playing this week (1): Phil Mickelson (Cut).

Over 30 years ago when Frank Hannigan was still the Executive Director of the USGA, he told me that if it were his choice, the U.S. Open would be rotated among just three courses, Pebble Beach, Olympic Golf Club, and Shinnecock Hills.

One of his choices, Pebble Beach, will host the U.S. Open this year, the sixth time in just 47 years that it has returned to one of the most treasured golf courses in the world.  Ask any golfer what their bucket list top course would be, of 9 at of 10 would say Pebble Beach.  Maybe because anyone can play it, all you have to do is show up to the pro-shop and pluck down $550 and you can play it too.  Now the course was a lot lower, I remember as a 16-year-old hotshot playing the course for the first time in the summer of 1972 a month after the U.S. Open was played on it, getting to play it for $20 and let me tell you that was a boatload of money back then.  But here is an even bigger discount.  So afterwards a very good friend of mine Tad Buchann, his father brought Tad and two of his friends and I was one of them on a venture to Pebble Beach.  For $150 a night per person we got to stay at the Del Monte Lodge (Today it’s called the Lodge at Pebble Beach), we got the night lodging, breakfast, and dinner and unlimited golf for the day at either Pebble Beach or Spyglass Hill.  What a great time I had back then, we would play 36 holes a day on either Pebble or Spyglass, then about 5 pm go to the driving range and pick up 10 to 15 balls and Tad’s father would drive us near the 2nd tee at Cypress Point.  We really never thought about anything other than Tad’s father would never play, as he said they would not put a bunch of 16-year-olds to prison, but they would put him in jail.  Unfortunately, we were too young to appreciate the allure of Cypress Point.  Amazing thinking about it today, we went on this trip for three summers and we played Cypress about ten times and never got caught.  Now the big deal of the adventure would be getting to the 16th tee at sunset when the wind was blowing in a good 20 to 30 mph.  That’s when we would unload our driving range balls trying with all of our might to get it on the green, which in the evening was always an impossible task back then.  We would always get one ball on the green, putt out and go over to play 17.  There was a parking lot behind the 17 green and Tad’s father would provide the escape from Cypress.  Boy those were fun days.

But back to Pebble and Frank Hannigan, he talked about how much of a gamble it was in the late 60s to take the U.S. Open to Pebble.  At the time they knew the course was great and be perfect for the U.S. Open but they were afraid of its location and that being 130 miles from San Francisco, nobody would come.  But come they did.  It wasn’t as big of a success as in other years, in 1972 and ’82 they sold tickets at the gate.  It wasn’t a sell-out until 1992.  One thing that Hannigan said helped was the 17th hole and how Jack Nicklaus played it in 1972 and the way Tom Watson played it in 1982.  Both made birdies, Nicklaus with a one-iron into a 25mph wind that took a bounce and stopped a foot away for a birdie helping him win.  In 1982 Watson missed the green and from deep rough chipped it in for a birdie and went on to win.  After that, it was set in stone that every ten years or so Pebble would host the U.S. Open.  It’s so popular with the USGA that they have already awarded the 2027 U.S. Open to Pebble.  Back to Frank Hannigan and the USGA going to Pebble for 1972.  As Frank said, it took the Del Monte Properties who owned Pebble at the time to offer the USGA a $250,000 guarantee, to make sure that the USGA would make a profit for that year.  Why do I think that the folks that own Pebble now aren’t paying the USGA guarantee money anymore.

Let’s take a look at what is important for those playing at Pebble Beach:

The U.S. Open is going back to Pebble Beach, a course that held the Open in 1972, ’82, ’92, 2000 and then 2010. The course also held the PGA Championship in 1977. Over the course of the last 50 years, only St. Andrews has held more majors.

Pebble Beach is situated on the Monterey Peninsula, 120 miles south of San Francisco. Pebble is considered the most spectacular golf course in all the world and is a course the USGA loves to host the Open on.

The land was owned by Samuel Morse, who was the nephew of the inventor of the telegraph and Morse code. Morse had an eye for the natural beauty of the Monterey Peninsula and bought 7,000 acres of the Penisula, including seven miles of Pacific oceanfront for $1.3 million in 1915. Morse then formed the Del Monte Properties company and had a vision of a resort with a golf course on prime acreage that ran along the bluffs above Carmel Bay. Instead of selling the oceanfront property for homesites, Morse built his golf course. One of his real estate agents was Jack Neville, who won the California Amateur Championship and even though Neville had never built a course before, Morse decided to give him a chance to handle the design. Neville asked another California Amateur Champion, Douglas Grant, to help him on the project and they spent a month routing the 18 holes.
In 1918 the course was opened for play, but in the inaugural competition, the course was deemed to be unplayable for the average golfer and was closed for revision. Neville and Grant softened it up and in 1919 it was again open for play.

Over the course of the next ten years, the course was modified by Neville and Grant, and in 1928 H. Chandler Egan, Robert Hunter and Roger Lapham strengthened the course for the 1929 U.S. Amateur. Since then the course has remained basically the same, except for the redesign of the fifth hole, which is certainly an endorsement of the sound design of Neville and Grant.

Nine holes at Pebble are set along the rocky shores of Carmel Bay. They are the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 17th, and 18th. The 18th hole is considered by many as the best finishing hole in golf. It was originally a par 4 of 379 yards until Egan changed it into a par 5 of 550 yards. Many say it’s the greatest finishing hole in golf, but it has been ravished by the changes in equipment. Before 2000 nobody would dare try to reach the green in two, but now about half, the pros have the capability to go for the green in two. There are some silent rumors going around that Pebble has bought some land in the back of where the hotel sits and that they plan on building rooms on this land to enable them to move the green 50 to 70 yards back and closer to the water, thus making it a very tough hole. We will see, we could see this change for the 2027 U.S. Open that will be held at Pebble Beach.
Pebble Beach has held many tournaments, including four U.S. Amateurs (1929, ’47, ’61, ’99 & 2018), the 1989 Nabisco Championship and is the host course for the annual AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am which at one time was the Bing Crosby. Pebble has one distinction as being the first public course to ever hold the U.S. Open. Since then Pinehurst, Bethpage and Torrey Pines have joined the rota with Chambers Bay and Erin Hills holding U.S. Opens in 2015 and ’17.

The average green size at Pebble is 3,580 square feet which makes the greens the smallest that are used on the PGA Tour. The course has 92 bunkers and water comes in play on nine holes along the Pacific.

So what does this mean for you who are trying to make a pick for this week or if you are looking for six winners in your DraftKings picks? Over the course of the last two years, Erin Hills and Shinnecock were bomber delights. It was all about hitting it as far as you could, chasing it down and hitting it onto the green. That is the type of golf the Brooks Koepka loves to play and if you look at the courses he has won his majors on, Erin Hills, Shinnecock, Bellerive and Bethpage, all of the courses were set up for guys that hit it long and straight. No matter what the USGA says, unfortunately, their gem Shinnecock Hills is now venerable and they will have to address what to do about that when the Open returns to Shinnecock in 2026.

As for Pebble, there isn’t much the USGA can do to make the course harder, they can’t. Yes, they could grow impossible rough in the fairways, bring the fairways in so that the players have to hit 25 yard wide fairways, then let the grass around the greens grow and Pebble would be tough. Since the course is on the Pacific Ocean and gets those afternoon breezes of 15 to 25 mph, the course would be impossible. Another thing that Pebble has about it, you really have to plan out your strategy and have a game plan for Pebble. Yes, hitting fairways are important because if you put the ball in the rough, your next shot is impossible. That’s because the greens average size is just 3,500 square feet, making them the smallest greens for not only the U.S. Open but for all the PGA Tour. Of course players like Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson have two great keys to their game, they hit it long and straight, but at Pebble on holes 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 11, 13, 15 and 1 length means nothing you have to place your drive perfectly to have a good shot to a very small green

So with that said, how can we judge this course? One thing we are going to do is use only strokes-gained stats, we have done that for the last two years and it worked great. Not that stats like driving accuracy or greens in regulation don’t work, but strokes-gained is more defining and will help us pick players better.

Our first is Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee because driving will be necessary. Driving distance is always important but many players will need to throttle back this week, so getting it in the fairway is important and the closure you get to the greens is better, but not important At the 2010 U.S. Open Pebble was T-28th in driving distance and 25th in driving accuracy showing you have to do both perfectly. With the small greens if you miss a fairway, your not going to get it on the green so you can see hitting it straight is important, something that wasn’t as important at Erin Hills and Shinnecock Hills.
Our next stat is Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green because hitting greens are essential and you have very little targets with 3,500 square foot greens. In 2000 Tiger did these two things well, he was T-14th in fairways hit and 1st in greens hit, these two were the reasons he won. Our third stat is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green because players will miss greens and win have to get it up and down. Last is Strokes Gained-Putting because that is going to be very important for players this week. Putting was the key for Graeme McDowell winning in 2010, he was 2nd in putting average, T-4th in one-putts and T-5th in three-putt avoidance. But the one thing we can’t stress more that there is no know stat for and that is playing it smart. Every major champion from Pebble is a member of the hall of fame, except for Tiger (who will be soon) and Graeme McDowell. So look over the stats and you can see you can narrow the 156 in the field down to about 25 and from there look who have great minds in thinking around a golf course and you will have your winner.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: The per round average of the number of strokes based on the number of fairways and distance hit

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: Takes into account the number of greens and the proximity to the hole in the interest of saving shots.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Number of strokes gained from shots around the green, lot of it is scrambling and bunker play..

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of strokes gained in putting

The 92 of the 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2019. Remember there are a lot of foreign players in the field plus 16 amateurs without stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

here is a link to the other 92 players with PGA stats for 2019

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Brooks Koepka – $11,600
• Dustin Johnson – $11,300
• Tiger Woods – $10,700
• Rory McIlroy – $10,500
• Jordan Spieth – $10,300
• Patrick Cantlay – $10,000
• Justin Rose – $9,700
• Rickie Fowler – $9,500
• Justin Thomas – $9,300
• Jon Rahm – $9,200
• Jason Day – $9,100
• Francesco Molinari – $9,000

Powerful field with a lot of guys to choose from.  Of course, Brooks Koepka is the favorite at $11,600.  All I can say is a big no.  I can’t see any way that Brooks wins three in a row.  I think he will have problems contending.  First, the pressure on him will be great from the media to the fans.  But I just don’t think Pebble is a good course for him.  He’s not great on Poa Annua and tries to avoid playing on it.  But the topper for me, Koepka’s game is best from tee to green, but this year dismal in Strokes Gained around the Green (ranked 119th) and Strokes Gained putting (100th).  So if you can’t scramble and putt well it puts even more pressure on him and I can’t see him succeeding.  As for Dustin Johnson at $11,300 I like him.  There are many reasons why first he has won twice at Pebble and should have won the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble.  Second, he loves putting on Poa greens, five of his 20 PGA Tour wins have come on greens with Poa Annua.  If his driving is good he will win.  But most importantly Johnson knows how to be smart at Pebble and get around it, so he is my favorite.  Now some of Johnson’s appeal was taken away when Rory McIlroy won the RBC Canadian Open in such dramatic ways on Sunday.  Still despite McIlroy going for $10,500 it’s worth it.  He ranks 1st on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained off-the-Tee category and ranks 5th on the PGA Tour Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green category.  He is the hottest player of the year, in 13 starts have had a chance to win on the back nine on Sunday 8 times and you know he will again be in that position.  Now we took it a bit out of order, but Tiger Woods is $10,700 and worth the price.  I really feel that he is the best at knowing how to play and win at Pebble.  I really feel that just like Augusta his length off the tee and his inability to make as many putts as others won’t hamper him.  When things get tough he knows how to handle adversity, if the weather changes at Pebble he knows how to handle it.  He is also not afraid of anyone and is Tiger Woods so yes you can take him.  Jordan Spieth is next at $10,500.  Two months ago I would have said I was crazy even considering him, but his game has really improved over the course of the last couple of months.  He has a lot of momentum, T-3rd at the PGA Championship, T-8th at the Charles Schwab and T-7th at the Memorial.  Yes, he doesn’t have great numbers in driving and hitting to the greens, but he is 3rd on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained Putting for 2019.  He also has a great track record at the AT&T winning in 2017 and six top-25 finishes in seven starts, so yes he is a good pick.  Patrick Cantlay at $10,000 is also a good buy.  Not only is he 14th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee, but also 10th in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green.  He has played well in his visits to the AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am, was T-9th in 2013.  Has played well of late, T-9th at the Masters, T-3rd at Heritage and PGA Championship and won Memorial.  So he is a good pick.  As for Justin Rose at $9,700 I am taking a pass.  Has stumbled on his putting the last couple of months, for the year T-105th in putts between 4 and 8, his game has stubbled since winning at the Farmers in January has been well below his standards.  Rickie Fowler at $9,500 I am also taking a pass on him.  His game hasn’t been sharp of late.  Only played twice in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am, T-27th in 2010 and missed cut in 2012 so he doesn’t like to play at Pebble. But most of all I am taking a pass because most of the golf has given up on him winning a major.  I also am taking a big pass on Justin Thomas at $9,300.  Yes, he was T-20th at Canada, but he still has a problem with his wrist so it’ going to take a few more events the feel that the wrist is no longer a problem for him.  I also don’t like Jon Rahm at $9,200.  He has struggled with his game since winning the Zurich team event missing the cut at the PGA Championship and Charles Schwab.  I also feel he is too much of a hot head to keep it together in the toughest conditions.  Now I am coming around on Jason Day at $9,100.  Yes, I think he is a ticking time bomb with his back but he hasn’t complained about it for a while.  Day is good off the tee but has struggled with his iron play.  Still, he is a great choice since he is a wizard around the greens and is 8th in Strokes Gained-putting.  But more importantly  he has a great record at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am with a T-2nd in 2018 and T-4th this year.  In ten starts only been out of the top-15 twice.  Last but not least we have Francesco Molinari at $9,000.  I really have no opinions on him, there is nothing that points to not picking him and there is nothing pointing to pick him, so he is your choice.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

My number one pick for this price range is Adam Scott at $8,600.  His game has been sharp of late, T-8th at the PGA Championship and 2nd at the Memorial.  Could be the best player in the field from tee to green, even his putting has been better, ranks 21st on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained Putting.  Most importantly he is so straight and hits so many greens that could make up over poor putting.  Now I like Hideki Matsuyama at $8,800 because he has lot’s of patience and is great from to green.  Also, like Xander Schauffele at $8,700.  Knows how to play well on tough courses in tough conditions.  Very under-rated ball striker is 17th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and 33rd in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green.  Also, have to think about Matt Kuchar at $8,500, he played great at Canada.  His iron play and driving isn’t that bad but has to putt well to have a chance.  I also like Tony Finau at $8,400 because of his consistency in the majors of late.  But he has to step out of his element to make sure he is straight off the tee and hits lots of greens.  Phil Mickelson at $8,200 is my sentimental pick for the week.  Yes he won at Pebble in February and yes he doesn’t have that many chances left, but I feel if the weather cooperates and is great for four days with limited wind he has a good chance.  Some other things to look at the Sunday of the U.S. Open is his 48th birthday and the fact that his grandfather was one of the original caddies at Pebble Beach.  If Phil could only win the Open on Sunday it would be the sports story of the year and close out a really great career.  I also like Webb Simpson at $7,700.  He has been playing well of late and always strong on tough courses.  My last choice in this price range is Henrik Stenson at $7,600.  A great bargain, his game has been great of late and he could shine at Pebble.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the U.S. Open

Hard to find “bargains” at the U.S. Open but here is a couple.  First I like Brandt Snedeker at $7,500, little do people realize that in 12 Open starts he has five top-ten finishes and could be the next rookie major winner.  Yes, he isn’t a true “ballstriker” of a player and struggles from tee to green, but around and on the greens, he is a real magician.  He ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green and 8th in Strokes Gained Putting for 2019.  But what we really don’t realize is his record at Pebble, yes he is Jekyll and Hyde at Pebble during the AT&T, has missed 4 cuts but has won twice and was 4th once.  But his game is peaking right now, was T-4th last week, been in the 60s in his last 7 rounds, so he is my sleeper pick of the week.  Also, I really like Shane Lowry at $7,500, he never seems to go on any radar scopes and just like Snedeker is weak from tee to green but good on and around the greens.  He too missed the cut at Pebble earlier this year but he could be the Graeme McDowell European pick for this week.  Another European to watch is Martin Kaymer at $7,400 who’s game is improving of late,  He was T-8th at the British Masters and 3rd at the Memorial.  Just like Snedeker and Lowry a bit weak from tee to green but good around and on the greens,  One other spooky thing, he has never played the AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am but did play in the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble and was T-8th.  And while we are talking European players we can’t discount Graeme McDowell at $7,300.  He won earlier this year at the Corales Puntacan Resort Championship and if you look at his 13 wins, six of them comes around a large body of water like the Pacific Ocean.  One thing we never discussed but each year the U.S. Open produces this off the wall player that looks for his dream victory only to fall short.  Last year at Shinnecock it was Daniel Berger, while at Erin Hills it was Brian Harman while at Oakmont in 2016 it was Andrew Landry.  Each year has that kind of story and I think that Rafael Cabrera-Bello who is just $7,300 could be that story.  Or Cameron Smith at $7,300, who was in contention back in 2015 and finished 2 back of Jordan Spieth.  You never know, a Jim Furyk who is $7,200 could find his game at Pebble this week, he has a great track record on this course.  A couple of sentences above we talked about Daniel Berger who was in contention last year, Berger is just $7,100 and in his only Pebble Beach start was T-10th in 2015.  The list of longshots goes on, Eddie Pepperell at $7,000 could find his game or even Scott Piercy at $7,000.  But if you want the ultimate longshot and someone that is on nobody’s list of picks it would be Mikumu Horikawa at $6,200.  Now Horikawa is a regular on the Japan Golf Tour, the 26-year-old qualified for the U.S. Open three weeks ago in the Japanese qualifying event.  He has never played outside of Japan and Asia and I would bet he is making his first visit to America.  For Horikawa qualifying for the U.S. Open was a big honor, but nothing like what happened to him on Sunday when he won the JGTC Mori Building Cup Shishido Hills event for his first professional win.  So you never know how Harikawa will react over all of this good fortune and can keep the good fortune rolling.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the U.S. Open:

• Since 1960 only nine players have made the U.S. Open their first PGA Tour victory; Jack Nicklaus, 1962; Lee Trevino, 1968; Orville Moody, 1969; Jerry Pate, 1976; Ernie Els, 1993, Retief Goosen, 2001, Michael Campbell in 2005, Angel Cabrera in 2007 and Graeme McDowell in 2010.  But take a look at that list. Jack Nicklaus and Jerry Pate were U.S. Amateur champions, Retief Goosen, and Ernie Els had almost a dozen wins around the world before they won the U.S. Open and Lee Trevino became one of the greatest players in the world.  Michael Campbell, Angel Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell won a lot around the world, especially in Europe.  Dustin Johnson won a lot of the PGA Tour. So of these first-time winners, you have Orville Moody, who went on to win the Senior Open but still wasn’t that great of a player.  The point here is looking for a big name to win the U.S. Open.
• So could that open the door for another first-time winner?  Probably not, of the 50 first timers, I don’t see one that could win, lot’s of good players and prospects for the future but not today.
• Eight years ago the 41-year streak of not having a European Tour player winner was finally broken by Graeme McDowell.  Since then the floodgates have opened as other Europeans as Rory McIlroy won in 2011, Justin Rose in 2013 and Martin Kaymer in 2014.  With the course being so hard, don’t be surprised if another European wins this year. Europeans are used to playing links-style courses, more than Americans.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

So what will it take to win at Pebble Beach?

• I think the most important things about Pebble Beach is that you have to think your way around the course and be very patient.  The course is very short but demands hitting the ball in the fairway and the right spot.  In looking at the first 8 holes, I can see a player like Dustin or Rory or Brooks using driver once on the 2nd hole and possibly on the 6th hole.  The rest of the time they will be putting it in position for the shot to the green,  Again hitting greens is important since the greens are all very small, so if you miss a green you have to be able to get up and down and save par so around the green is very important.
• Another important this to remember about Pebble Beach is having a lot of patience.  Each week these players compete in an environment in which you make a birdie every fourth hole or a total of five to six times a round. Even with three par 5s that won’t happen and players will have to realize that par is your friend.

Hitting to the greens, how tough?

• A lot will depend on if the pin is tucked away close to a bunker or hard to get close.  Lot’s of holes like 1, 4 and 7 are really small even with a wedge they are tough to get close.  Players have to be careful for the water in hitting to greens at 9 and 10.  And greens on the par 3 12th is a very little target, greens 13, 14, 15 and 16 have lot’s of undulations  Again a player has to be smart; there are lot’s of danger around the greens, so you have to make sure a shot is to the right part of the fairway to give you a proper access.  The greens will also be hard (unless rain makes them too soft), so lot’s of shots won’t hold the greens and roll off into a hard situation.  Sometimes getting it up and down from rough off the grass will be hard, the same with greenside bunkers, they won’t be easy to get up and down from.  I think that a person that scrambles well will be the winner this week.

Weather

The weather is always significant at Pebble Beach. This year the weather will make it easy for the players, right now it suppose to be warm and sunny, with low winds.  But remember this, warmth brings on fog and that could hamper play causing delays and play mind tricks on players.  Also, watch if conditions change and just like 1992 during the final round and unpredicted wind shows up and makes it tough on the players.

Is there any rhyme or reason for a player winning the U.S. Open?

No.

• In the past 30 years, it’s been won by grinders like Dustin Johnson,  Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Jim Furyk, Retief Goosen, Angel Cabrera and Graeme McDowell, who may not look pretty but knows how to place shots in the right spots.  There have also been superstars like Tiger Woods, who were expected to win.  It’s been won by great tour players like Tom Kite and Corey Pavin, who capped off their PGA Tour careers with their first win in a major.  It’s been won by up and coming stars like South African’s Ernie Els, Martin Kaymer, Retief Goosen and Geoff Ogilvy, who won it in 2006.
• Who can forget the stars that many thought were past their prime, like Payne Stewart and Hale Irwin?  It’s also been won by tour grinders like Lee Janzen and Webb Simpson. Last but not least the stray qualifier like Steve Jones, who surprised the golfing world with his victory in 1996, plus Michael Campbell in 2005, who was contemplating not going to U.S. Open qualifying the night before.  How about 2009 winner Lucas Glover, you show me a person that had a winning Lucas Glover ticket, and I will show you my winning Irish sweepstake ticket.  In past Opens, we said that it was a wide-open field.  But I feel that only the best will contend this week. It will be just like the Masters in which only a dozen players have a real chance at winning.