BlogBMW Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Tiger

Have to say the big news is the health of Tiger Woods.  Since the winning the Masters, Tiger has missed the cut at the PGA Championship and British Open.  He was T-21st at the U.S. Open and T-9th at the Northern Trust.  Last week I told you all that I personally thought that the cool weather was the problem with Tiger, but after the pro-am at the Northern Trust, I could see that wasn’t the case.  In the pro-am, he looked like he was laboring on shots and didn’t hit a full-swing shot over the last nine holes.  After the round, he said that he was getting stiff and that was the reason he stop hitting full shots.  Things didn’t seem any better during the first round as he shot 75 and the talk of injuries started mounting.  Woods told the media that he was a little bit stiff, but no word came out on what was stiff.  On Friday Woods withdrew before his tee time and his team called the problem a “mild oblique strain.”  After that, we have heard nothing from Tiger’s camp.  In Tuesday’s Chicago Tribune Teddy Greenstein speculated that Tiger would be at Medinah playing in the Wednesday pro-am.  After that, he and the PGA Tour is planning a press conference so it’s probably wise to wait and see if Woods is uncomfortable in the Pro-am round.  In the Tribune story, Greenstein uses Golf Channel analyst Brandel Chamblee as a source, seems that Chamblee believes Woods had some sponsor deals, one being a golf course project in the Chicago area, that will get him to try and play.  Still, the bottom line is to be very careful on Woods, at this time I am calling him a player you don’t want to pick and will update this post on Wednesday afternoon.

Slow Play

Another problem that is becoming a big deal is slow play.  We all know that Slow-play has been a big problem for over a decade.  But it never has been discussed as players are reluctant to point fingers at the culprits.  At the British Open Brooks Koepka opened up the Pandora box when he criticized his final round playing partner J.B. Holmes.  Now Holmes has always been a slow player, it didn’t help when he was on his way to a final round 87 in poor conditions.  But Koepka continued to harp about slow play and others like Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods added fuel to the fire.  At the Northern Trust, Bryson DeChambeau was pointed out and the debate was lit up on social media.  Things heated up to the point that the PGA Tour said they would review its policy and consider ways to penalize players.  At the same time, DeChambeau tried to fight the backlash saying that he was quick in getting to the ball which balanced out the extra time he took over the shot.  But this didn’t work, if anything it poured more fuel to the problem and finally, DeChambeau had a talk with Koepka and came out on Instagram saying he realizes his problem and has respect for those that he played with (Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood) and would work hard to speed up his play.  Still, slow play is not just J.B. Holmes and Bryson DeChambeau so the debate will probably linger for the next two events.  Right now DeChambeau is 20th in the FedExCup and will be in Atlanta, but he has had a rough last three events missing the cut at the British Open and finishing T-48th at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and T-24th at the Northern Trust.

Parting of the ways

It seems that the dream pairing of Jason Day and Steve Williams has ended after six events.  Day told the Australian Associated Press that Williams will no longer be on his bag, citing a “disconnect” between the two after missing the cut at the Northern Trust.  When they paired up for the first time at the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, Day finished T-21st and showed some promise with a T-8th at the Travelers.  But since the Connecticut start, he was T-66th at the 3M Open, missing the cut at both the British Open and last week’s Northern Trust and T-40th in the 63 player field at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.  After his finish at the Travelers, Day was making it sound like it would be a permanent partnership as the pair was working to improve his game and come out strong in 2020.  So for Williams is back to New Zealand and retirement and you have to wonder if this could of been his last rodeo.  Williams did well in the Tiger Woods days and has said he never has to work again for the rest of his life.  For Day it’s back to the drawing board, for the BMW he will have friend David Lutterus on the bag but Day’s career is at a major juncture.  At 31 years Day is at the prime of his life but he has suffered from injuries.  The latest came in March when his back gave him problems and an MRI revealed a tear in his L4-L5 disc.  Since he hasn’t really addressed the problem but at the same time hasn’t had the problem recur, still in many people’s minds, he is a ticking time-bomb with this problem not being solved.  Day is having his worst season since he was hurt in 2012.  For the year he is 50th in the FedEx Cup rankings which means his season could end this week.  Day has gone to the Tour Championship every year since 2010 with the exception of 2012 when he was 87th in the FedEx Cup rankings.  So for Day to make a return trip to Atlanta, since he is 235 points behind 30th spot it means that Day needs a top-ten finish, to make sure probably an 8th place or better this week.

Getting into the top-30

Going into this week the big news will be getting into the top-30 and playing at the Tour Championship.  We talked about the importance of it, playing at the Tour Championship gets players into just about any event in 2020 including the four majors.  If you look at the list of those on the bubble, for most of them playing at East Lake is very important.

• 27 – Corey Conners
• 28 – Louis Oosthuizen
• 29 – Harold Varner III
• 30 – Andrew Putnam
• 31 – Ryan Palmer
• 32 – Jason Kokrak
• 33 – Hideki Matsuyama
• 34 – Francesco Molinari (not important, is qualified in all majors in 2020)
• 35 – Scott Piercy
• 36 – J.T. Poston

Tournament information:

The Western Open was originally founded and run by the Western Golf Association. First played in 1899, the event is the third oldest professional golf tournament (U.S. Open and British Open are older). Like the other golf tournaments of the time, the Western Open was dominated by visiting professionals from England and Scotland. In its early decades, it was widely regarded as a major championship

From 1899 until 1961, the Western Open was played at a variety of locations including Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco to name a few. Beginning in 1962, however, the Western Open settled into the Chicago area. It was hosted at different local courses in and around the city.

In 1974, the Butler National Golf Club in Oak Brook became the annual venue for the Western Open. The Butler National Golf Club remained the host site until shortly after the 1990 tournament when the PGA Tour adopted a policy of holding events only at clubs that allowed minorities to be members.

This resulted in Butler National being replaced by the Cog Hill Golf & Country Club in Lemont, Illinois. The Dubsdread Course at Cog Hill played host to the Western Open from 1991 to 2007. With the advent of the new FedEx Cup Series, the PGA Tour decided a change of name was in order. The event name change to the BMW Championship.  Along with the change it was decided to move the tournament around. In 2008 for the first time since 1962, the event was not played in the Chicago area as it moved to St. Louis for the year. In 2012 it went to Indianapolis, Indiana, in 2013 it went for the first time to Conway Farms, site of last year’s BMW Championship.  In 2014 it was played at Cherry Hills in Denver, going back to Conway Farms in 2015, Crooked Stick in 2016 and Conway Farms for the 2017 BMW Championship.  Last year it was played at Aronimink, after playing this year at Medinah, the BMW Championship (which will have a new name next year) will be played at Olympia Fields just outside of Chicago.

Course information:

• Medinah Country Club (#3 Course)
• Medinah, Ill.
• 7,613 yards     Par 36-36–70

This year the BMW Championship goes to Medinah C.C. which has been steep in major championship history, holding three U.S. Opens, two PGA Championship, a Ryder Cup and a U.S. Senior Open.  The course was conceived as a place for Shriners and their families.  In 1925 members of the Medinah Temple of Chicago bought 650 acres of land and went about building a club consisting of three golf courses, a polo field, an amphitheater, a gun club, an archery range, an equestrian club and a ski jump.  The centerpiece of the club was to be its enormous clubhouse.  Reminiscent of some of the mosques of the Byzantine era, it took four years to build at a cost of $600,000.  Today the replacement cost would be $40 million.

The club was to have three courses, one of them exclusively for women.  This was to be the No. 3 course and it was designed by Tom Bendelow.  When the course was opened in 1928, the men of the club decided to keep it for themselves.

In the 30s the club was the site of numerous PGA tournaments including the Western Open.  The club also received a series of facelifts from its original design, with half the holes and 800 yards being added.  Gerald Dearie and his son, both who served as green superintendents, were responsible for some of the revisions and the firm of Killian and Nugent, added other refinements.

Many thought that Medinah was one of the finest 17 hole golf course in the county.  The weakness was the finishing hole, which was a dogleg that bent too soon, forcing the players to lay up with a middle iron.  Controversy surrounded the hole to the point that the USGA said they would not return until the hole was changed.

In the 1980s membership hired Roger Packard to remodel the finishing hole and he came up with a plan to build three new holes, giving the course a new finishing hole in a new location.  The USGA liked the changes and awarded the 1988 Senior Open and the 1990 U.S. Open to Medinah.  Soon afterward the PGA of America made Medinah the site of the 1999 and 2006 PGA Championship along with the Ryder Cup matches in 2012.

But the secret to the club’s success is that they haven’t been afraid of making drastic changes to the course which has cost them millions of dollars.  With the cost, it has improved the course and kept it up to date with the assault that new golf equipment is doing making a lot of major venues obsolete.  Before the 1999 PGA Championship, Medinah made changes to its final holes but it was nothing compared to the changes made before the 2006 PGA Championship.  The club hired Rees Jones to come in and he made changes to 17 of the 18 holes.  He added 160 yards making it at the time play to 7,561 yards, the longest course to hold a major championship.  Jones also cut down 800 trees allowing more sunlight and air circulation which made the rough even more lush and harder to play from.  Even though there is no majors planned for Medinah, events like the BMW are very excited to have a gem of a course just 15 miles from one of the biggest cities in the world.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at the #3 course at Medinah

Here is a look at some of the key stats that players will have to do well in at this week’s BMW Championship.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Brooks Koepka – $11,800
• Rory McIlroy – $11,500
• Jon Rahm – $10,900
• Dustin Johnson – $10,700
• Justin Rose – $10,200
• Justin Thomas – $10,000
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,800
• Patrick Reed – $9,600
• Webb Simpson – $9,400
• Adam Scott – $9,200
• Tommy Fleetwood – $9,000

Ok, this will be a different week because there is no cut this week so the point total will be higher.  Again you have to make major decisions on high price players like Brooks Koepka at $11,800, Rory McIlroy at $11,500, Jon Rahm at $10,900 and Dustin Johnson at $10,700.  To be frank, if you pick one of these players and they don’t finish in the top-3 you will be way behind.  It also is very costly, one thing you won’t be able to pick two of them.  As for Brooks Koepka at $11,800, Rory McIlroy at $11,500 and Jon Rahm at $10,900 I have no problem with any of them.  Their games are good and it’s just what they do.  Of course, Brooks was disappointing last week, I see him playing better this week.  McIlroy is McIlroy and I fear him because he can’t play a perfect 72 holes, he showed that with his third-round 70 last week at the Northern Trust.  As for Rahm, he is streaking and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him winning.  Now Dustin Johnson at 10,700 is a terrible pick.  Since the Masters, he has fought with his putter and that has hampered him.  Last week Johnson added his driver to a problem area, he ranked T-70th at Liberty National and is working on it.  Just don’t think he will have it fixed, so take a pass on him.  Also, take a pass on Justin Rose at $10,200.  He has the same problem as McIlroy, can’t put together a perfect 72 holes, last week at Liberty National his problem was a final round 71.  Justin Thomas at $10,000 is a good pick, see his game getting better on each start.  His best month of his career is August.  Since 2015 in 14 August starts he has won twice and been in the top-ten, eight times.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,800 is also a good choice, his game getting back on track, was T-12th in his last two starts at Memphis and New York.  Patrick Reed at $9,600 I would be careful with, just don’t think he is a good enough player to do well back to back.  Webb Simpson at $9,400 is probably on his home stretch of good play, I do think that Medinah is the type, of course, he will do well on.  Adam Scott at $9,200 is a risky pick, again have no idea what to think so I will be avoiding him.  Tommy Fleetwood at $9,000 is a good choice, he was runner-up at the British Open, T-4th at the WGC-FedEx St.Jude and is 1st in scrambling and 12th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

First off is Jordan Spieth is cheap at $8,900 and very temping, I say no he is just to inconsistent.  Rickie Fowler is $8,800 and a good choice even though he missed the cut at the Northern Trust.  One thing to think about on Fowler, he has won seven times in U.S. and Europe.  In two of those wins, the 2015 Scottish Open and the 2015 Deutsche Bank he missed the cut the event before so anything could happen with him.  Louis Oosthuizen is also a choice at $8,700 he was T-6th last week.  Lot’s of people will like Xander Schauffele at $8,600, I say take a pass on him his isn’t there yet.  Tony Finau is $8,500 and a toss-up, he was 3rd at the British Open and this will be like a major course so I am ok with him.  Paul Casey at $8,400 is a good choice, he won’t win but will provide you with a lot of birdies.  Bryson DeChambeau at $8,300 is also a good choice, yes he is under fire for his slow play but he could pick it up and find that he is better playing faster.  Also like Billy Horschel at $8,300, was T-3rd last year at Aronimink.  Won this event in 2014 at Cherry Hills.  Is 14th in Strokes Gained Putting.  Matt Kuchar is good at $8,200 and despite his poor summer and missing the cut at the Northern Trust he could be ready to play well.  Also very surprised at Brandt Snedeker at $8,100 he played well last week and should do well this week.  Now many will see Tiger Woods at $8,000 and think it’s the bargain of the century, I say be careful you don’t know if you’re getting an injured player.  Gary Woodland at $7,900 is a good choice along with Abraham Ancer at $7,700.  Lastly, Shane Lowry and Kevin Kisner at 7,600 are great picks along with Marc Leishman at $7,500.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the BMW Championship

Joaquin Niemann is $7,300 and is great on good courses, he was T-13th at the Wyndham.  Troy Merritt at $6,800 is been good of late, was T-12th at the Northern Trust and 2nd at the Barracuda.  Also, like Jim Furyk at $6,700, he has been consistent all year.

Here are some of the secrets that it will take to play well this week at the BMW International:

The key stats for the winner:

• So a big hitter doesn’t have the advantage and it will be interesting to see how this plays out.  Tiger Woods won the 1999 PGA Championship, only using one driver for the week, he did use more in his 2006 victory but trusted a 5 wood for most of his tee shots.  The strategy helped him put the ball in position to hit greens, in 1999 he hit 52 greens to rank T-8th while in 2006 he hit 56 to rank T-1st.  Another key for Tiger was playing well on the par 5s, in 1999 he was 9 under and in 2006 was 8 under.  During the 2006 PGA Championship Phil Mickelson attested to Medinah’s toughness by saying “It’s a little intimidating, You’ve got to drive the ball well, and driving it 300 yards and keeping it in a 25-yard fairway, you don’t have much margin for error.”
• If you want to see who can win, just look at the winners at courses like Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village, Colonial, Sedgefield or even a modern course like Bay Hill.  I would almost bet the farm that whoever wins this week, will also have a title from one of those courses.
• A player that it’s it straight and keeps it out of the rough.  Yes, length will help but you want a player that hits it straight and long.
• Sharp iron play will also help along with the imagination when you do get in trouble.  The key is to be peaking about Wednesday right before the start of the championship. That’s what happened last week in Patrick Reed’s win.
• There is also the unknown factor in which the course could yield low scores to an unknown player. Since Brooks Koepka won the PGA Championship we have seen a lot of players we least expect to win.  Players like Kevin Na (Charles Schwab), Chez Reavie (Travelers), Nate Lashley (Rocket Mortgage), Matthew Wolff (3M), Dylan Frittelli (John Deere), Collin Morikawa (Barracuda) and J.T. Poston (Wyndham).  But with the difficulties of Medinah the odds on that happening are slim to none, we will have a marquee winner this week.
• Look for good putters to have a significant advantage because Medinah’s undulated greens should be dried out.  Monday will produce a lot of rain, but it will be dry the rest of the week making the greens hard.
• Also, the winner will be a good scrambler.  It’s going to be impossible to hit every green and for those that can get it up and down, they will be rewarded