BlogSanderson Farms Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So the Sanderson Farms is no longer an opposite-field event.  For the last few years, it was played opposite the WGC-HSBC in China and frankly didn’t get much love.  But now the Sanderson Farms is a full-field event, the biggest perk is the winner will get a Masters invite.

For the privilege, the event is paying more money.  For that the premise is they would get a better field.  That has been achieved, last year they only had one top-100 player while this year they have 16 players.  The only problem the highest-ranked is 41st Brandt Snedeker, but it is a great start.

Could 2020 be different?

Last week we saw the future of the PGA Tour.  With the likes of Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka and even Rory McIlroy we have seen younger players do more wonderful things while they were young.  Last year we saw players like Cameron Champ win early, but after the fall Champ never made it back to the top-ten.  But a weird trend started when 20-year-old Matthew Wolf won the 3M Open.  Players under 25 were in the running, a couple of weeks later22-year-oldd Collin Morikawa won the Barracuda.  Players like 21-year-old Viktor Hovland was in the running and it seemed that the PGA Tour has gotten very young.  At the beginning of the new year, 20-year-old Joaquin Niemann won the Military Tribute at The Greenbrier and it’s now time to wonder, could we see a lot of young winners on the PGA Tour in 2020?  We saw what happened on the LPGA Tour win 15 year-old Lydia Ko won the 2012 Canadian Women’s Open and Lexi Thompson at 16 winning the 2011 Navistar. You rarely see anyone in their 30s win on the LPGA Tour today, I don’t think the PGA Tour will get that way.  But the question still begs an answer on how many under 25s will win in 2020.  We saw it big time with McIlroy and Spieth, but now we have a different generation of players, those that really don’t value a college diploma but feel they are not only ready to play on the PGA Tour but to win.  When you see the top-ten of the Greenbrier scoreboard it’s interesting to note that six of the 12 in the top-ten (Niemann, Werenski, Scheffler, Shelton, Munoz and Hovland) were under 27.  To be frank we only have one to judge from and if you look last year Cameron Champ won Sanderson, was T-10th at the Mayakoba Classic and 6th at the RSM Classic and never saw the top-ten again.  He was T-11th at the Sentry T of C but after that he didn’t have a top-20.  But have to say that players like Viktor Hovland, Joapquin Niemann, Matthew Wolf and Collin Morikawa did have better pedigrees than Cameron Champ had.  All I am saying is that it should be an interesting couple of weeks to see if the tour sees more younger players getting trophies.

Here are some tournament and course information:

• This event has been played in Mississippi since 1968.  In the beginning, it was an unofficial event and became an official event on the PGA Tour in 1986.  In it’s first year and until 1993, it played opposite to the Masters.  It was called the Deposit Guaranty and was played at Hattisburg C.C. in Hattiesburg, Miss.  Not only did the date change to July and opposite the British Open, in 1994 the event moved to Madison, Miss and the Annandale Country Club.  It again was moved in the schedule in 1999 when it was opposite the Tour Championship, the Ryder Cup and the Presidents Cup.  In 2011 it switched back to July and the same week as the British Open with Sanderson Farms taking over in 2013.  Not only did the date change but the course was different for the first time in 20 years as it moved to The Country Club of Jackson.
• The course wasn’t the whole reason for the change, Unlike Annandale, the country club offers more than 120,000 square feet of roofed infrastructure which means more money will be donated to charity.  The course is also terrific and has gone through a lot of changes since the summer.  The biggest change is the fairways have been narrowed and a second cut added with the rough being allowed to grow in.
• The course is a John Fought design that features “Golden Age” architectural features with pushed up greens and closely mown run off areas. If the course stays dry, the greens will be treacherous and could make things interesting.
• The site had an interesting history because it was better know in Mississippi not for golf but were in 1966 it was the site of a famous raid that caused liquor to be legalization in the state.  So the Country Club of Jackson will this week be remembered as the site that changed the last dry state in the United States instead of for the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sanderson Farms Championship:

• With a new course, it’s always up for grabs, nobody has any history and it will take a few years before we see who gains an advantage playing here.  But we learned a lot the last five years it’s been played there, first that hitting greens is important. C.C. of Jackson ranked 29th hardest last year as the course is getting tougher to hit greens.  In 2018 it was 24th hardest while it was 37th hardest of the 50 courses in 2017, 46th in 2016 and 38th in 2015 so players tended to hit lot’s of greens. Of the 34 that finished in the top-ten the first three years, 19 of them were in the top-ten in greens hit with last years winner Cameron Champ finishing T-9th.  In 2018 Ryan Armour ranked 3rd while 2017 winner Cody Gribble finishing T-29th in Greens hit.  But in 2016, winner Peter Malnati finished T-4th in greens hit while runner-up William McGirt finished T-4th and in 2015 winner Nick Taylor finished T-3rd while runnerup Jason Bohn finished T-1st. So the point is, you have to hit lot’s of greens.
• On the face of it, we’re looking at a pretty long golf course, with the par-five fifth hole able to stretch to 612 yards before the difficult-looking sixth at close to 500 (482). Holes 14 and 15 would look to offer up birdie opportunities before a tough closing stretch, on the Dick Wilson design course in which the finishing hole is a 505 yard, par 4.  Oh, for the record there is no let-up on the par-4s, only one the 16th is under 400 yards so maybe a power hitter is the player to look for.  The par 5s played tough last year as they were the 12th hardest par 5s on the PGA Tour with a 4.71 scoring average.
• This is also one of those courses that you have to hit it long and straight.  Last year it ranked 12th in driving distance but in 2016 it was 1st and in 2015 it was 10th.  But in looking at our five winners at C.C. of Jackson most of them were short hitters, so this is not a bombers course.
• The weather is going to be nice for the players this week with highs in the lows 80s every day with very little chance of rain.  Things will start changing on Saturday as winds pick up to 10 mph and on Sunday winds will increase to 13 mph with a chance of scattered Thunderstorms.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Joaquin Niemann – $11,300
• Brandt Snedeker – $10,700
• Sungjae Im – $10,500
• Lucas Glover – $10,200
• Byeong Hun An – $10,000
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,900
• Cameron Smith – $9,800
• Brian Harman – $9,700
• Corey Conners – $9,600
• J.T. Poston – $9,500
• Emiliano Grillo – $9,400
• Vaughn Taylor – $9,300
• Dylan Frittelli – $9,200
• Russell Henley – $9,100
• Austin Cook – $9,000

Just like last week because of the nature of the field, it will be very hard to pick a winner.  Joaquin Niemann normally would be a great pick but at $11,300 its hard to justify.  The same with Brandt Snedeker at $10,700, he is a good pick but that price I find it hard to pick him.  Sungjae Im at $10,500 is a fair price, the kid is playing well.  A bit concern that he missed the cut last year but he is a different player today.  Lucas Glover at $10,200 is hard to grasp, he he was T-5th in this event in 2017 and T-14th last year.  So I say he is a toss-up.  Byeong Hun An at $10,000 is hard to grasp, he is playing for the first time at the Sanderson Farms and finished T-47th last week.  Again a toss-up.  Now Scottie Scheffler at $9,900 is doable, yes he played ok last week and was T-45th last year in Mississippi.  Cameron Smith at $9,800 could be a good choice, was T-17th the last time he played the event in 2017.  Brian Harman at $9,700 is also playing well and is a good choice.  On paper, Corey Conners at $9,600 seems good pick and should be ok considering that he was 2nd in this event last year.  Sorry but J.T. Poston at $9,500 doesn’t show much much, yes he won at Wyndham but that is over a month ago.  Emiliano Grillo at $9,400 is playing for the first time, take a pass on him.  Same with Vaughn Taylor at $9,300.  But I do like Dylan Frittelli at $9,200 and Russell Henley at $9,100, both are playing well.  Last but not least is Austin Cook at $9,000, I say not to pick him.

Honestly, in looking at the prices of these folks, I won’t be playing in these games and put my efforts into the BMW PGA Championship which has a better field and is more pickable.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Si Woo Kim at $8,700 is a good choice even though he missed the cut twice in this event.  Sebastian Munoz at $7,900 and Harris English at $7,800 played great last week and both could do well this week.  Also, watch Harris English at $7,800 he played well at Greenbrier and could be good again. Richy Werenski at $7,600 is one of those young guys that we will follow in the coming weeks, he is well overdue.

Some of the “bargains” this week at Southern Farms

The first guy to look at is Bill Haas at $7,500.  I can see a new and different player as he tries to regain his lost game from a couple of years ago.  Robert Streb, Tom Hodge and Roberto Castro at $7,400 all have good reasons to do well this week.  For Hoge, he played well last week finsihing 2nd as for Hoge and Castro they have gone low at Sanderson Farms.  The best picks for this week is Robby Shelton at $7,200 he played well last week.  Also, like Sepp Straka at $7,200 and Patrick Rodgers at $7,100