BlogBMW PGA Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This is the most prestigious event on the European Tour.  It’s played on a classic old course Wentworth, about 20 miles west of London.  Over the years it’s had a tough time getting a top-notch field as some European Tour members took passes to play on the PGA Tour instead of its tours premiere events.  But that is all a distant memory as the European Tour has moved this event from May to September.

Not only has the move brought on it’s the best field ever as every top European star is in attendance, but it has also brought on some top Americans like Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed, Billy Horschel, Russell Knox and Andrew Putnam.

Matter of fact the field is so good that frankly, it’s the big tournament to watch and play DraftKings to.  Over the years the course Wentworth has gone through some drastic changes as some have not like what they have done, but the last Ernie Els tweaks look like they have addressed the problems and everyone seems to like the way the course is now.

Sergio Garcia

Have to say that one of the last players I would have thought would win again was Sergio Garcia.  Yes Garcia has been in contention, after winning last year at the Andalucia Valderrama Masters he was runner-up the week after, T-3rd at Dubai Classic, T-6th at the WGC-Mexico Championship, T-5th at the WGC Dell Match Play and T-4th at the Wells Fargo.  So we can’t say he has played bad, just not Memoriam type of golf.  Since his Masters’ victory, he has only made four cuts in 11 starts with the best being a T-21st in the 2017 U.S. Open.  Goss, it was so bad that he missed the cut in six straight going from the 2017 PGA Championship to the U.S. Open this year.  In trying to explain it Garcia couldn’t as others said he has been in a different space since the birth of his daughter in March of 2017 while others say he just doesn’t care anymore which I doubt is the case.  It may seem hard to believe since Sergio has been around so long but in January he will turn 40.  So he has a lot of good golf ahead of him, who knows maybe another major in the horizon for him.  In looking at the stats from last week’s KLM victory, he still hits the ball great, he was T-3rd in greens hit and when he putts above average he plays well.  But the KLM Open is just that, another tournament that will be on his record but have very little meaning.  So it’s strange that he would make a big deal to attend the Omega European Masters two weeks ago and the KLM Open last week and the biggest event on the European Tour he takes a pass on.  A lot of it has to do with appearance fee money, odds are good that he got a small siphon from the KLM Open, as for the Omega European Masters he has had a house there for years so maybe that has something to do with it.  Still, it’s strange until you realize that Garcia plays very little in England, something to do with the taxes he has to pay.  He does play in the British Open and that is it, he hasn’t shown up for the BMW PGA Championship since 2014 and withdrew after the first round.  He has never played in the Alfred Dunhill Links in St. Andrews and he hasn’t played in the Scottish Open since 2007.  So you can say he just doesn’t like England.  It’s a shame he feels that way, not playing in the BMW PGA Championship is like not playing in the Players Championship.  As of money, sorry to see that with all the money in the world Sergio is so stingy he won’t pay the Queen and the commonwealth a few pounds.  As Sergio gets into his 40s he may regret not playing at Wentworth, I talked with Lee Trevino 20 years ago and he regretted his stance on the Masters and felt it was wrong on his part not to try harder.  In looking through Garcia’s record of 23 PGA and European Tour events he has won 23 times but other than winning the Masters and The Players Championship anyone would be hard up to name three of four of his other wins.  Yes, Sergio won the 2012 Wyndham and the 2005 Booz Allen along with two Barclays Classics which today is the Northern Trust.  But the fact is, yes Sergio will make it to the Hall of Fame one day, but frankly, 20 years from now he will be nothing more than a speck on the history books, mostly because he refused to play in events like the BMW PGA Championship.  Shame that a talented guy like him has to be that way.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the BMW PGA Championship.

The key stat for the winner:

• Wentworth is a classic shotmaker course, that is why those that hit lot’s of greens like Luke Donald have done well at Wentworth.  Having a short game is also important because for those that miss the greens, getting it up and down is tough as there are a lot of bumps and knolls around these greens.  But the key to playing well is to hit lot’s of greens like 2016 winner Chris Wood who was T-4th in greens hit.  Even better is what Byeong-Hun An did in 2015, he only missed 11 greens all week leading the field in greens hit.  To show how important it is to hit greens, going back to 2009 seven of the ten champions were in the top-ten of greens hit.  The only ones that weren’t in it were Rory McIlroy in 2014 (T-22nd), Alex Noren was T-18th in 2017 and Francesco Molinari was T-61st last year.
• Since major work was done on Wentworth in 2011, the par 4s are really tough, some of the hardest on the European Tour with five of the 12 playing over 449 yards.  In the last six years, 98% of those that made the cut have played the par 4s in 5.9 over par so you can see how Luke Donald won in 2012 when he played the 4s in 3 under, Matteo Manassero was 1 over in his ’13 win, Rory McIlroy played the par 4s in 1 under in 2014, Byeong-Hun An was 3 under on the par 4s in 2015 and Chris Wood was 2 under on them in 2016, 2017 winner Alex Noren was 3 under and last year Francesco Molinari played them in 5 under
• On top of new greens that went in before the 2017 event a lot of other things have been done to Wentworth.  29 bunkers were completely removed as ever bunker on the course was redesigned and rebuilt.  So now it’s going to be a lot tougher if you hit it into one of them.  Hopefully, with these changes and the ones a couple of years ago, it will be more appealing to the players.
• Weather will be good for every day with temperatures between 71 and 77 degrees.  Winds will be brisk between 12 and 15 mph and it should be a great week for golf.  There is a 40% chance of rain on Sunday however.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,900
• Jon Rahm – $11,000
• Paul Casey – $10,700
• Justin Rose – $10,200
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,000
• Henrik Stenson – $9,700
• Francesco Molinari – $9,600
• Tony Finau – $9,500
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – $9,300
• Viktor Hovland – $9,200
• Matt Wallace – $9,100
• Patrick Reed – $9,000

Have to say that I don’t care who a person is, even Tiger in his prime at $12,000 is a lot and for that reason it hard to recommend Rory McIlroy at $11,900 when you have such a stellar field as they have at the BMW PGA.  Yes, Rory was 2nd last year and won in 2014 but he also missed the cut in 2015, ’13 and ’12.  Of course, I don’t think he is going to miss the cut this year, but hey I thought the same thing from Rory at the British Open and he missed the cut.  The point I am making, of course Rory is the favorite and the odds are good he could win or finish second or third, but he is a lot of money.  Jon Rahm at $11,000 is a lot of money when you think that he has never played in this event.  But Rahm’s game should suit Wentworth to the tea since he does it a lot of greens and is straight off the tee.  Paul Casey at $10,700 is probably our first true choice considering he won just a couple of weeks ago and won at Wentworth in 2009.  Many will take Justin Rose at $10,200 but I won’t take him because he hasn’t been that great of late and yes he was runner-up in 2012 but he also was T-50th the next year and the last time he played at Wentworth was T-12th in 2017.  Many will pick Tommy Fleetwood at $10,000, but I’m not one to rush out and pick him.  In seven starts at Wentworth, he only has one top-ten, a T-6th in 2015 plus he hasn’t really done anything great since his runner-up finish at the British Open, so be careful in choosing him.  As for Henrik Stenson at $9,700, he too is one to be careful for but he has finished T-3rd in his last Wentworth start in 2017 and was T-3rd in the Scandinavian Invitation a couple of weeks back.  Stenson has proved to make a lot of birdies and is not that expensive, still I think there are better choices out there.  One of them could be Francesco Molinari at $9,600.  Yes he hasn’t had a top-10 finish since the Masters, but at Wentworth, he has played his last eight rounds at 26 under par and makes it into the top-ten a bunch, so maybe he is a good choice.  The same with Tony Finau at $9,500, he is playing at Wentworth for the first time but the course should suit him.  It also has suited Matthew Fitzpatrick very well, this week he is at $9,300 which is good when you consider he is 15 under on the course in his last eight rounds.  He also has played well over the summer so look for him to do well this week.  Viktor Hovland at $9,200 is also a great choice, yes has not played in this event before but should play well on the course, he just seems like the perfect pick to make a big surprise for this week.  As for Matt Wallace at $9,100 he hasn’t shown us much on playing well at Wentworth, but his summer as been good including a 3rd last week at the KLM Open.  Last in this category is Patrick Reed at $9,000 we better watch him because he has had a great summer and despite never playing at Wentworth the course should suit him well, frankly Reed is a bargain at $9,000.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Your chances in this range are a bit better, first up is Shane Lowry at $8,800.  Yes, the British Open champion has done nothing but drink out of the Open cup.  His game has not been very good.  Still, the big party has to end and I would say that almost two months after the victory it’s time for him to get back to work.  He has had a lot of good finishes at Wentworth including a runner-up finish in 2014, last year he was T-15th so he is a good pick.  Erik Van Rooyen is $8,700 and is worth that price considering on well he has played, in his last three starts he was T-5th at the Czech Masters, won the Scandinavian Invitation and was T-12th at the Omega European Masters.  Tyrell Hatton at $8,400 is a good price, he was T-8th at the British Open.  Billy Horschel is $8,300 and a rookie, but he knows how to win and should play well this week.  Ian Poulter at $8,100 is good when you consider it’s only a matter of time when he puts this one great week together, he is a good longshot.  Danny Willett at $8,000 is also a key with some history at Wentworth, he was 3rd in 2016.  One guy worth the money is Lee Westwood at $7,600, Lee always finds a way to finish in the top-25 and does make a lot of birdies.

Any bargains out there?

Eddie Pepperell at $7,500 always gets you plenty of birdies and makes cuts.  Also like Justin Harding at $7,200, he is off the disappointment of just missing his PGA Tour card so he will be looking to play well.  Ross Fisher at $7,300 is a good buy, Ross was T-8th last year and T-9th the year before.  Don’t forget to look at Dean Burmester at $6,900 he was T-12th last year and T-9th in 2017.  Also, don’t forget 2016 winner Chris Wood, he is a bargain at $6,900.  The best bargain of them all could be Hideto Tanihara at $6,600, he was T-3rd at Wentworth in 2017.