BlogDunhill Links Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Have to say that the movement of the BMW PGA Championship was very well received, even with rain on Sunday.  The field was good as every European with the exception of Sergio Garcia showed up.  The back nine proved to be a good battle between Danny Willett and Jon Rahm, with Justin Rose, Patrick Reed, Paul Casey, Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland playing in the last groups and adding a lot of excitement to the final round.

The course was in great shape and tournament officials said they had one of the better weeks of attendance.

The importance of the date change was to get every great European player to participate, with the thought that in the future more Americans will play.  This year was easy, there was no Ryder Cup to contend with.  We don’t know how the schedule for next year pans out but still, players will have to play in England and then fly to Wisconsin for the Ryder Cup.  But the fact that there are no competing events on the PGA Tour is the big help for the BMW PGA.  One American who fell in love with Wentworth was Billy Horschel who has been watching the tournament since he was 12-years-old and finally got to make his debut at Wentworth.  He shot 65 in the final round and finished T-4th with Patrick Reed and said afterward he was looking forward to returning next year.

Danny Willett

After he won the Masters in 2016, Willett disappeared due to a nagging back problem and a wrist injury.  In a span of two years, he went from 9th to 462nd in the World Rankings.  Normally these stories end on the operating table but that wasn’t the case with Willett.  He fixed his problems with a combination of rest, proper exercises as he works with Kevin Duffy on strength and conditioning.  But most importantly is his work with swing coach Sean Foley who has guided him to a brand new swing that will help his back and help him return to the form of great ball striking.  At the same time Willett has also gotten better around and on the green with the help of putting coach John Graham.  He showed 8 months ago that he was back with his win in the season-ending DP Dubai, but this win in the European Tours biggest event has brought him back.

He was always exempt for the majors through his Masters’ win, but now he can play in just about any event he wants thanks to moving into the 31st spot in the Official World Golf Rankings.  Not a bad climb when you consider this time last year before he teed it up at the Safeway Open he was 333rd in the rankings so he has moved up over 300 spots.  Who knows, Willett is playing this week in Scotland and after a week of plans on playing in Italy.

Off to Scotland

This week’s Alfred Dunhill Links is the European Tours answer to the PGA Tours AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.  A pro-am event held over three great links with the conclusion on the home of golf, the Old Course of St. Andrews.

With the change of the BMW PGA to September and no conflict of having the FedEx Cup playoffs, the Dunhill Links will have a good field.  Players like Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, and Tony Finau will play this week and join some of the regulars like Tommy Fleetwood, Padraig Harrington, Martin Kaymer, Shane Lowry, and Ernie Els

What makes this event unique is that each pro will be partner with an amateur partner and play one round over the Old Course, Kingsbarns, and Carnoustie.  All three are challenging with the Old Course and Carnoustie sites of past British Opens.  As for Kingsbarns, the course is only 19 years old and over the course of time could be good enough to also hold an Open Championship on its links.

Thanks to the change of the schedule after this week there will be four more European Tour events in Spain next week, the Italian Open the week after, the French Open followed by the Portugal Masters before the tour moves to China and the WGC-HSBC Champions.  All of these changes have made the end of the year on the European Tour seem more important and with full-field events gives everyone a better chance to get into the playoffs which start in November.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Alfred Dunhill Links:

The key stat for the winner:

Have to handle three of the best golf courses in the world as you play with another pro and an amateur for the first three days.  Those that have won in the past are patient men, also have to be able to handle all of the elements because this is the time of year that the weather will be changing and it will be a lot cooler and wetter than it was when the British Open was played in Scotland in July.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Lots of marquee winners in the 18 years of this event with Martin Kaymer, Padraig Harrington, Colin Montgomerie, Lee Westwood and Paul Lawrie claiming the title.  But it doesn’t mean that a first-timer can’t win, in 2004 Scottish born Stephen Gallacher was a very popular winner and showed that anyone can win this title.  Look at last year’s winner Lucas Bjerregaard, he won for the second time on the European Tour but in the Dunhill Links he didn’t have the type of record that gave you confidence in picking him.  The first time he played in 2014 he finished T-32nd, but in 2015, ’16 and ’17 he missed the cut.  But in the month going into last year’s Dunhill Links Bjerregaard finished T-9th in the Czech Masters, 6th in the Made in Denmark, 2nd in the European Masters and T-20th at the Portugal Masters.

Again I can’t stress the importance of check out our European Tour player rankings page to see who is playing the best.

In gauging things it’s important to point out that of the three courses, St. Andrews will play the easiest and Carnoustie will play the hardest.  So when looking at first-round scores don’t disregard someone that shoots between 70 and 74 at Carnoustie.  Now the key is to play hard in the first round, between 2006 and 2017 no winner shot higher than 68  with Branden Grace opening up with a 60 in 2012 and Oliver Wilson opening with a 64 in 2014.  But last year Lucas Bjerregaard opened up at St.Andrews with a 70 before shooting 65 at Kingsbarns, 71 at Carnoustie and 67 the final day at St. Andrews.

Have to be able to handle poor weather.  In looking at some predictions for the week, it looks like it’s going to be cold every day, not getting higher than 57 with rain every day of the tournament.  There will be some wind that will make the courses play tough.  All three courses are on the sea and won’t get protected from the cold winds blowing in off the North seas.  The worst day looks like it’s going to be Saturday.

DraftKing Picks

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,800
• Jon Rahm – $11,600
• Justin Rose – $10,700
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,400
• Shane Lowry – $10,000
• Danny Willett – $9,700
• Tony Finau – $9,500
• Bernd Wiesberger – $9,400
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – $9,200
• Matt Wallace – $9,100
• Tyrell Hatton – $9,000

Boy, we saw what kind of player Rory McIlroy was last week at the BMW PGA Championship.  After a first-round 76 we all thought he was going to fade and miss the cut as he did at the British Open, but he shot 69 to make the cut and then 65-67 to finish T-9th and have his first finish in the top-ten after shooting 76.  This week McIlroy is $11,800 which is reasonable but frankly, I won’t pay that price, it’s too high.  I think McIlroy will do well, but he has a history of inconsistency.  Yes, he has three runner-up finishes in this event, but his biggest whops came in 2010 when he opened with a 63 in the British Open and shot a second-round 80 at St. Andrews.  He went on to finish T-3rd that year.  So you can see, anything can happen to Rory this week.  As for Jon Rahm at $11,600, that is a lot of money.  Yes, he is good on links courses winning twice at the Irish Open, but he missed the cut at Carnoustie last year and frankly, I think he is too much money.  I know he was 2nd at Wentworth, that also plays in my choice of not taking him.  Justin Rose at $10,700 is a lot, he hasn’t played in this event in 11 years. he did finish runner-up in 2007.  But again a lot of money for him.  Tommy Fleetwood at $10,400 is reasonable and someone that I will take.  His record is good in this event, was runner-up last year and in 2014.  As I said last week I like Shane Lowry and this week he is $10,000.  He has struggled in this event of late but was T-3rd in 2013 so we know he can play well and I think he will play well.  As for Danny Willett at $9,700, he is hot from winning at Wentworth and I think the good play will continue, yes he is a viable choice.  I don’t know how to call Tony Finau at $9,500, he has limited experience at St. Andrews but he is still a good player and did finish T-10th in this event last year.  Bernd Wiesberger at $9,400 is never a good choice if he is more than $8,000.  That is because he just doesn’t make that many birdies.  Normally I like Matthew Fitzpatrick who is at $9,200, but this week I am saying no.  His record in this event is not good and he didn’t play well at Wentworth.  Matt Wallace at $9,100 is also a no for me, normally I like him but he hasn’t played well in this event and struggled at Wentworth.  Last is Tyrell Hatton at $9,000 and despite struggling of late he plays too good in this event and on links courses.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Erik Van Rooyen is at $8,800 and I say he is a big yes, he has played great of late an is probably the hottest player in the field.  Also, like Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $8,700 he is playing well right now.  Talking about hot players Christiaan Bezuidenhout is also hot and is $8,000 and worth the price of admission.  Watch Andrew Johnston who has played well this summer and is just $7,600.  Last I like Ross Fisher at $7,500 just because he plays well in this event.

Any bargains out there?

Kiradech Aphibarnrat at $7,300 is a good choice, plays well in this event.  At $7,300 it’s a good price for Padraig Harrington considering what he could do if he gets hot.  Justin Harding at $7,200 has the game for St. Andrews and Richie Ramsay at $7,100 has some good memories of this place.  Ashley Chesters is at $7,200 and has pleasant memories of some good golf over the last 4 starts.