BlogSafeway Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So we are a year from last year’s Ryder Cup debacle in Paris and a year from the next cup in Wisconsin.  Many will worry and say that things have to be different, frankly, I am not worried.  Last year Le Golf National was perfectly set up for the European Tour, think things will be reversed and that the American team will have the big advantage at Whistling Straits.

This week the tour moves to what is becoming one of the favorite stops the Safeway Open.  Played in Napa Valley, which is wine country about 90 miles north of San Francisco.  This time of year is picture perfect and the course, Silverado North is a gem.  Each year the field gets better and better as more players don’t mind playing this week.  In the past, this event was the first tournament on the schedule, but with the season ending a month early, there is now two events played before the Safeway and that seems to have helped the tournament get a better field.

About the Safeway Open:

This event started in Scottsdale, Arizona and after three years at Grayhawk transferred to CordeValle Golf Club, close to its sponsor’s headquarters in San Jose.  The hope was that CordeValle would be a temporary home as it’s been a dream to hold the event at the Institute Golf Course in Morgan Hill, CA.   But construction problems forced the event not to be played on the ultra-private course that very few had ever seen.  So CordeValle was to be a short-term fix and was until the event moved to Napa for 2015.  The event was supposed to move to the Institute Golf Course (which is suppose to be a great course) someday, but after the success at Silverado and Frys dropping sponsorship the event signed up Safeway as the title sponsor and for the foreseeable future will stay at the Silverado Resort, which is very popular with the players.

Course information:

Many will not remember, but Silverado was a proud site of the PGA Tour between 1968 to 1980 and then held a senior event, the Transamerica between 1990 and 2002.  So Silverado had a deep relationship with professional golf.  The resort changed direction because it didn’t need to spend the money to host a professional golf event.  Napa Valley has become an excellent destination for couples over 40, between the great weather and the vineyards. Still, the resort lost some of its luster over the years and needed some sprucing up. One of the areas that have been improved was the golf courses.  There are two of them, the South and the North, a couple of years ago Johnny Miller put together an investment group that purchased the courses, and Miller reworked the North Course. What Miller did was revamped all of the greens, put in new bunkering and realigned the fairways and trimmed the trees that were too cumbersome.  Of course, because of the downturn of the golf marketplace, Miller didn’t go crazy by changing a lot of the holes, adding lakes and streams.  Still, Miller is happy at work, and he is hopeful to be able to do the same to the South Course.

So what will the pros find this week?  The greens are one of the things that Miller points out that makes it a better course.  “These greens are as tough as Augusta at high speeds,” Miller said to Golf.com. “I would probably have five three putts a round.”  The course was also increased from 6,900 to 7,203.  Now on the surface, this may be too short for the best pros in the world.  So I can see both the long-distance players having a field day while the shorter hitters were also enjoying shorter approaches to the greens.  One thing that was brought out in the 13 years it was played in the 70s,  the caliber of champions which included players like Billy Casper, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson, and Ben Crenshaw among its winners.

Another important aspect of the Miller redo, to improve playability and aesthetics, turf renovation got rid of Kikuyu grass and returned the course to its original mix of rye and Kentucky bluegrass condition.

The course has become a big hit with the players, sponsors, and fans and provided some great theater.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Silverado.

This is based on the most vital stats from Silverado Resort, North course based on data from last year’s Safeway Open and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020 and 2019.
This is the Sixth year that the Safeway Open is being played at Silverado which has a history of holding PGA Tour events going back to the 60s. So the resort has had a deep relationship with professional golf. A couple of years ago Johnny Miller put together an investment group to buy the Napa resort and it’s two golf courses which were built in the 1960s. Both courses were designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr. and were good, but they were never updated with the advent of new equipment. So when Miller came in he wanted to rework the two courses and bring them up to date. He started first on the North Course by revamping all of the greens, put in new bunkering and realigned the fairways and trimmed the trees that were too cumbersome. The most important item in the change was changing the greens by adding some undulation and making them very fast. Miller also added 300 yards so it will play at a par 72 and at 7,166 yards.
Last year the course played to a 71.10 scoring average, almost a full shot under par. It was the 29th hardest course on the PGA Tour. Because of the lack of wind, it played a lot easier than in 2018 when it was 71.76 (23rd hardest) and in 2017 when it was 70.83. For the pros the hardest aspect of the course is hitting fairways, 53.65% of the fairways were hit last year as it ranked the 4th hardest course to hit in 2019. Even with the tight fairways, the players hit 68.59% of the greens making it the 30th hardest course to hit in regulation. With that 1,682 birdies were made on the course as only nine other courses saw more birdies made, so hitting fairways and greens will lead to making a lot of birdies. As for the greens, they were the 13th hardest greens to score on as the players made over 69 feet of putts per round.

In looking at how last years winner Kevin Tway did, he was T-40th in Driving Accuracy and T-18th in greens hit. Comparing this with Brendan Steele who won back to back in 2018 and 2017, in Driving Accuracy Steele was T-3rd in 2018 and T-5th in 2017. In greens hit, Steele was 4th in 2018 and T-21st in 2017 so he hit the ball a lot better than Tway did last year. Steele was also better than Tway in birdies made as Tway made 19 and was ranked 9th while Steele made 19 in 2018 and was ranked T-5th but made 24 in 2017 which was not only the best of the field but most ever made at Silverado. Now were Tway excelled was in scrambling, of the 20 greens he missed, he got it up and down 16 times and his 80% average was the best. Putting wasn’t that great for Tway as he ranked 18th in Strokes Gained putting so it’s hard to really figure statistically how Tway won. But Tway was the most consistent, not getting in much trouble and was so solid with his 68-67-68 start that 71 was all it took, plus winning a playoff to be the winner.

So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving and getting the ball on the green makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because at Silverado putting the ball in play off the tee is very important, probably one of the most important items on this Robert Trent Jones course. Next up we pick not only scrambling but Sand saves and in order to do that we will use strokes gained around the green because if the greens are missed you have to still make par. After that putting is important, so we have picked Strokes Gained putting as our third most important element. Last is birdies as we pointed out lot’s of birdies are made on this course.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

*Birdies average: Players that make the most birdies averaged per rounds played

Of the 144 players in the field, 134 have stats on the PGA Tour taking an average ranking for both 2019 & 2020:

Here is a link to the other 124 players with stats from 2019 and 2020.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Justin Thomas – $11,600
• Patrick Cantlay – $11,200
• Adam Scott – $10,700
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,500
• Sungjae Im – $10,100
• Bryson DeChambeau – $9,900
• Francesco Molinari – $9,700
• Brandt Snedeker – $9,600
• Byeong Hun An – $9,500
• Collin Morikawa – $9,400
• Marc Leishman – $9,300
• Chez Reavie – $9,200
• Ryan Moore – $9,100
• Kevin Na – $9,000

The change of schedule is going to help this event.  In previous years it was the debut of the new 50 Korn Ferry.Com players, but now we see more marquee players are showing up.  Interesting to see Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama and Francesco Molinari playing with Scott and Molinari as first-timers to the event.  Normally we don’t like high price players but Justin Thomas at $11,600 is reasonable considering he has played well at Napa in the past and has the stats that it takes to play well in this event.  The last we saw Thomas he wasn’t able to keep the lead at the Tour Championship, but we are seeing more and more how tough that is being put in that position.  He is a good pick considering he has played well since missing the cut at the U.S. Open.  Patrick Cantlay at $11,200 is another player that on paper looks great, he is good on courses like Silverado and should have a great week.  Adam Scott at $10,700 is another of those good players on paper plus he ended his year with three top-tens in the FedEx Cup playoffs.  I can see a big year for Scott and that starts off with a great finish this week in Napa.  Hideki Matsuyama at $10,500 is another of those great on paper players, has played good at Napa  and he also ended his season great at the BMW Championship and Tour Championship.  You may find this hard to believe but I also like Sungjae Im at $10,100, he got his 2019 season off to a great start with his T-4th finish at Silverado last year just missing the playoff.  Hard to believe that I like all top-five players, if I was to narrow it down to two, I say Thomas and Im.  With so many great picks it makes Bryson DeChambeau at $9,900 look way too expensive.  He is ok in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee ranking 24th last year and the rest of his stats were good so why did he play so inconsistently?  DeChambeau is more of a streak player so he is hard to gauge after a break, I say take a pass on him and see how he is before he defending his Vegas title.  I will say no to Francesco Molinari at $9,700, he has not been in the top-ten since the Masters and I don’t see that getting any better soon.  Brandt Snedeker at $9,600 is a go, was T-2nd last year so he can go low at Silverado despite not being that great of a driver.  He makes up with great tee-to-green game and putting.  Byeong Hun An at $9,500 is a question mark basically because there are so many other good picks.  But An is good off the tee and to the green, his weakness is putting.  He is playing at Silverado for the first time and playing good almost winning in Mississippi so he isn’t a bad pick.  Collin Morikawa is $9,400 and playing for the first time in 2020, I say let’s wait and see on him just because he didn’t play well after his win at the Barracuda.  Marc Leishman at $9,300 is a very quick no, yes he was 5th at the Memorial and 3rd in Memphis but he has been having some back issues and it bothered him so much at Greenbrier he withdrew after a first round 76.  Chez Reavie at $9,200 is a no, he plays regularly at Silverado and never played well.  But it’s the opposite for Ryan Moore at $9,100, he was runner-up last year and was T-10th in 2016.  He usually starts his season well but I still wouldn’t take him due to his inconsistency.  Kevin Na is $9,000 because he was 7th in 2017 and runner-up in 2016, he is a thought because he drives it straight and in defending his Greenbrier title two weeks ago finished T-14th.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Emiliano Grillo at $8,800 is worth thinking about since he did win at Silverado in 2016.  Now many will say no to Phil Mickelson at $8,200.  He hasn’t played well since winning at Pebble last year.  But you know that since we last saw Phil last month at Medinah he has worked hard on his game and lost a few pounds so you never know with Phil, I won’t take him but will think about him.  Think about Harold Varner III at $7,800, the price is right and he is playing ok with a chance of doing well this week.  Troy Merritt at $7,700 is also a good price for a player that could do well.  Now a good sleeper pick is Nate Lashley at $7,600, he played well last year despite playing poorly over the weekend.  He also played well at Greenbrier.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Safeway Championship

2019 was a nightmare for Brendan Steele but it’s hard to believe that you can get a guy that has won two of the last three tournaments for just $7,400.  But remember this, in 2019 a T-14th was his best finish in 22 starts.  Martin Laird at $7,300 is also not a bad pick considering he has a couple of top-tens and finished his year strongly.  Kevin Chappell at $7,200 is worth the gamble, he was hurt last year and after not playing since Mayakoba played at Greenbrier and despite finishing T-47th did shot a 59 in the second round.  He is a straight driver of the man which makes me think he is worth the gamble.  Luke List is $7,200 mostly because he has missed a lot of cuts of late, but played well last year at Silverado so he is worth the gamble at the price he is at.  Last I like Robby Shelton at $7,100 because he does hit is straight and he impressed me at Greenbrier

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Safeway Open:

Key stat for the winner:

• In all five years of being played at Silverado, hitting fairways and putting became the keys to playing well.  Silverado had the 4th hardest fairways to hit last year so hitting it straight is essential.  Also putting was important, on putting average it ranked 25th out of 49 courses meaning that lot’s of putts were made.  So look for that trait in a possible winner this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Since the course is still new for a good share of the players, the experience will play a minimal role.  Traditionally tournaments on the PGA Tour that hold events for the first, second and third year, are won by journeymen and players with minimum experience winning.  The last five winners Kevin Tway Sangmoon Bae, Emiliano Grillo, and Brendan Steele fit that bill so expect the unexpected for this week.
• Johnny Miller says the greens are perfect and fast, so good putters should have a field day.
• Scrambling is also very important because it’s not that demanding around the greens at Silverado.  Last year it ranked 28th hardest, so to win you have to get up and down on those greens you miss.
• Weather is going to be picture perfect but the players are going to hate the winds which will average 15 mph each day with Sunday having the highest.  So look for high scores.
• Lastly, the trend is for a journeyman pro to win, think that will be broken this week as a marquee name wins.