TPC Summerlin Key Fantasy Stats

Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

October 3rd – 6th, 2019

TPC Summerlin

Las Vegas, NV

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,255

Purse: $7 million

with $1,260,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Bryson DeChambeau

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Summerlin based on data from last year’s Shriners Hospital for Children and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2019.
TPC Summerlin has a long history on the PGA Tour, it was the first part of the Shriners rota in 1992 just after the course opened when the tournament was 90 holes and utilized three courses. Starting in 1995 it was the home course of the event and became the sole venue of the tournament in 2008. The course has always been well respected and for a desert course is one of the hardest. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The players love the course, many since they can score low on it on a normal day without wind.

Last year with calm conditions the course played easily at a 69.13 average which ranked 43rd on the PGA Tour. But the year before in very high winds up to 25 mph on Friday, Saturday and Sunday the course played a lot tougher than previous years with a 71.54 scoring average, a half over par. It was the 10th hardest course on the PGA Tour, showing how weather can affect things. In 2017 Summerlin played to a 69.62 average and was the 40th hardest course on tour. So with that, it changed the minds of many who thought the course was a bombers delight, it really isn’t. If you look at the winners of this event since 2008 only one bomber won the event, Smylie Kaufman in 2016. But in looking at all of the other winners, champions like Rod Pampling, Ben Martin, Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, and Marc Turnesa have always been part of the bottom third of drivers so they don’t hit it far. Last year’s winner Bryson DeChambeau was 30th for the week and T-34th over 2019 while Patrick Cantlay in 2018 was T-8th in driving distance and 33rd for the year. So what kind of players wins at TPC Summerlin?

Of the 13 champions since 2007, six of them were in the top-five of greens in regulation and only two champions, Patrick Cantlay in 2017 was T-17th and Kevin Na, were both higher than 13th (Na was 40th when he won in 2011). Another important item is putting, six of the winners were in the top-10 in putting average with only two not in the top-20 (Cantlay was 9th last year). The one stat that seems important is that of the last 12 winners, eight of them were in double digits in under par figures on the par 4s. 2010 winner Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under, in 2017 Rod Pampling was 13 under, 2018 champion Patrick Cantlay was 9 under on the par 4s and Bryson DeChambeau was 12 under last year. (This is important, Cantlay led the par 4s with the best average, it was down due to the winds).

In looking at the course averages from last year, the one thing that sticks out is that TPC Summerlin was the 28th hardest course to drive it in the fairway in calm conditions but in windy conditions in 2018 it was the 8th hardest course to drive. In 2017 it was 7th, the hardest in looking at the history of the course, in 2016 it ranked 11th and in 2015 it was 17th so hitting it straight is important. In looking at our champions since 2009, all of them finished in the top-20 with last year’s winner Bryson DeChambeau ranking 4th in driving accuracy while Patrick Cantlay ranked T-5th in 2018. Some other keys to playing well are making lot’s of birdies, last year DeChambeau had 22 birdies while in 2018 Cantlay had 20 birdies which were tied for the most of the tournament and an average of one in every 3 and a half holes played..

One important item is the weather, every day is mostly perfect in Las Vegas this time of year with lots of sun and temperatures in the mid-80s. The good news for the players, each day the winds will be low averaging about 6 mph.
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/1041657:5:US

So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving hit straight and far makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained off-the-tee because driving is the key to playing well. Our second important category is proximity to the hole. The course ranked T-13th last year and 44th in greens hit last year. In 2018 in the wind, it was 5th in Proximity to Hole and 28th in Greens in Regulation which means lot’s of greens will be hit. So in order to make birdies, the person that gets his shots from the fairways close will do very well. Next up we pick not only scrambling but Sand saves, because if the greens are missed you have to still make par. Last year the field averaged 5th in scrambling and with 51 greenside bunkers, the field was 11th in sand save percentage so our third category is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green. Last we pick par breakers which are the combination of birdies and eagles made during the round. Making lot’s of birdies and eagles is always important, especially on a desert course like TPC Summerlin.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length of that a shot going into the green leaves a player.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Par Breakers: Combination of birdies and eagles to get a percentage of holes played under par

122 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from 2020. Players like Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Gary Woodland and Webb Simpson don’t have stats yet:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.