BlogShriners Hospitals Preview and Picks

The Buzz

Off to Sin City:

The oldest running fall event, Shriners Hospital for Children has all of the glamour of Las Vegas on a course that a lot of players like to play on.  For some, this will be a fun week with a little bit of golf mixed in with the fast-paced action of Las Vegas.

Founded in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic, the event has undergone six name changes in the event’s history. Frys.Com became the title sponsor for the event in 2006, replacing its former title, the Michelin Championship at Las Vegas.  2007 was the final year of Fry’s involvement and in 2008 Justin Timberlake took on the duties of becoming the tournament presenter with Shriners Hospitals for Children sponsoring the event.  Timberlake is no longer associated with the tournament.

At the tournament’s inception, the managers of the tournament prided themselves on running a tournament that stood out amongst the slew of annual PGA events. It was the first event to offer a total purse of $1 million; at the trophy presentation, the winner used to receive his trophy with two showgirls by his side. Though these ideas help separate the event from others, the most drastic deviation from the norm is the tournament’s format, which in a way “borrowed” the format at the Bob Hope Open.

In its inception, the tournament was played over five rounds at between three and four courses. However, in 2003, when the original tournament founders abdicated control to another volunteer organization, the event was immediately switched to the more conventional four-round format. Over the years, courses have been dropped and for the 11th straight year, it’s only played on the TPC Summerlin.

One thing about this event, it’s always nice winning an event but for some of its past champions, they never got back to the winners’ circle again on the PGA Tour.  Look at the 18 past winners since 2000, only nine Patrick Cantlay (2018) Webb Simpson (2014), Ryan Moore (2012), Jonathan Byrd (2010), Martin Laird (2009), George McNeill (2007), Troy Matteson (2006), Stuart Appleby (2003) and Bob Estes (2001) won again on the PGA Tour.  The others, Bryson DeChambeau (2019), Rod Pampling (2017),Smylie Kaufman (2016) Ben Martin (2015), Webb Simpson (2014), Kevin Na (2011), Marc Turnesa (2008), Wes Short Jr. (2005), Andre Stolz (2004), Phil Tataurangi (2002) and Billy Andrade (2000) never made it back to the winners circle on the PGA Tour and some of them don’t even play anymore on the PGA Tour.

The big move in schedule brings out the best field for Vegas:

For the last four years, this event has been stuck in a November slot right after the Asian Tour.  We can see how the fields were poor, there was no real incentive to play here other than the course or city.  This year with the fall schedule moving up a month this event moves up to the first week of October and played right after Safeway and has gotten it’s best field ever.  46 top-100 players with seven top-20 players including #1 Brooks Koepka, U.S. Open champion Gary Woodland and past Masters champions Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, and Phil Mickelson make it the best field this event has ever had.

Talking about an early start, for Joaquin Niemann, Sebastian Munoz and now Cameron Champ 2020 may be three months away but their season is off to a great start, with their victories we know that their Christmas will be special.  The same for Adam Hadwin, Sungjae Im and Tom Hoge who finished runner-up in one of the three events of the year.  All can now glide the rest of the way, a perfect example of that was Cameron Champ who last year won the Sanderson Farms Championship.  Shortly afterward he finished T-10th at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, was 6th at the RSM Classic and T-11th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.  After that, he started to struggle with every part of his game and in March at the Arnold Palmer noticed some tightness in his back.  He tried to play through it but his back locked up and he had full body spasm.  He played in six straight events without making a check and his game was in full free-fall.  It’s hard to believe after such a great start, in his last 16 starts he only made five checks and his best finish was T-21st in the Northern Trust.  Good news because of his great start he was able to play in two of the three FedExCup playoff events and finish 62nd in the final standings.  He was able to regroup with his swing coach Sean Foley.  He also hired putting coach John Graham and between the two of them, Champ was able to turn things around and won in Tampa.  In just three events it’s been a pretty good year.

So why are so many marque players, playing?

You have to play in the fall now, it’s not a “junk” section.  We are talking about 11 official events in 10 weeks.  That’s a fifth of the 49 events on the PGA Tour.  Between the start of the season and the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January there will be $81,750,000 in prize money given away, which isn’t peanuts.  You just can’t sit at home and let all of this money and FedExCup points go away without dipping into it.  So that is why you are seeing more and more marquee players like Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas now playing.  It’s a small fortune they are playing for these days.  To think just 23 years ago in 1996 the year Tiger Woods joined the PGA Tour Tom Lehman won the money list with $1,780,159.  In three starts in the 2020 season, Sebastian Munoz has won $1,458,086.  50 years ago Frank Beard won the money title with $164,707, about the same amount that Cameron Tringale, who is 35th on the money list has won in 3 starts this year. It took Ben Hogan 16 years on the PGA Tour before he won his first $100,000.  Going a step further, Gene Sarazen collected money on the PGA Tour between 1920 and 1976 and this may seem hard to believe but in his 56 years of playing he won 38 times, seven of them majors and only won $77,787.  Doc Redman is 58th on the money list with winnings of $75,700 in just three starts, oh how times have changed.

One last thing, this week is the 23rd anniversary of Tiger Woods first win on the PGA Tour.  In 1996 he won the Shriners by beating Davis Love III in a playoff.  For the victory, he won $297,000, $19,250 more than what Justin Thomas, Charles Howell III, and Zac Blair won for finishing T-4th at the Safeway Open last week.

Course information:

TPC Summerlin was designed by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1992. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The tees, fairways, and rough all comprise of 419 Bermuda Grass, cut at 3/8″, 3/8″, and 2″ respectively. The greens consist of a 1/8″ cut of A-1/A-4 Creeping Bent Grass. This short cut mixed with the always speedy Bent Grass explains the rather Stimpmeter reading of 11 feet. As for hazards, the course features 99 sand bunkers (with 51 around the greens) and water comes into play on four holes.

The signature hole at TPC Summerlin is the short 341-yard par four 15th hole. The large elevated green is reachable from the tee; however, numerous bunkers guard the green, making the play risky, but possibly very rewarding. As for accolades, Golf Digest rated this as the fourth “Best in State” course for 1995-96, and the fifth best for 1997-98. Also, GolfWeek awarded it 98th in the category of “America’s 100 Best Modern Courses” for 1997.

Last year was the 11th time that Summerlin was the only course used and they made a big change in 2009 changing par to 71 by making the third hole a long par 4 at 473 yards.  In addition to this change, trees were added along the right side of the fairways on Nos. 9 and 16, both par 5s. The rough also was grown longer than in years past and for holes 7, 9, 11, 12, 13 and 16 the fairways are going to be between 3 and 5 yards narrower than in 2008.  All of these changed to try and make the course play a bit tougher.  In 2008 Summerlin played to an average of 69.070, while in 2009 with par reduced it played just about the same, 69.152. In 2010 it played to a 68.956 average, while in 2011 it was 68.883, 2012 was 69.713 and the 40th toughest course at of 49. In 2014 the course played to a 69.546 average and was the 43rd hardest course out of 48.  In 2015 the course played to a 69.659 average and was the 42nd hardest course out of the 52 played.  In 2016 the course played to a 70.080 and was the 34th hardest course out of 50. In 2017 the course played to a 69.622 and was the 40th hardest course out of 49 courses that was played in 2017.  In 2018 due to high winds it had a course rating of 71.54 making it the 10th hardest course on tour.  Last year with no winds the course ranking was 69.13 and it was the 43rd hardest course on tour.

Lots of birdies are made on this course, last year 1,785 were made along with 53 eagles.  The finish is demanding with the par 3 17th hole played the 8th hardest hole at 3.015 while the 18th hole was the 7th hardest at 4.017.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Summerlin.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Summerlin based on data from last year’s Shriners Hospital for Children and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2019.
TPC Summerlin has a long history on the PGA Tour, it was the first part of the Shriners rota in 1992 just after the course opened when the tournament was 90 holes and utilized three courses. Starting in 1995 it was the home course of the event and became the sole venue of the tournament in 2008. The course has always been well respected and for a desert course is one of the hardest. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The players love the course, many since they can score low on it on a normal day without wind.

Last year with calm conditions the course played easily at a 69.13 average which ranked 43rd on the PGA Tour. But the year before in very high winds up to 25 mph on Friday, Saturday and Sunday the course played a lot tougher than previous years with a 71.54 scoring average, a half over par. It was the 10th hardest course on the PGA Tour, showing how weather can affect things. In 2017 Summerlin played to a 69.62 average and was the 40th hardest course on tour. So with that, it changed the minds of many who thought the course was a bombers delight, it really isn’t. If you look at the winners of this event since 2008 only one bomber won the event, Smylie Kaufman in 2016. But in looking at all of the other winners, champions like Rod Pampling, Ben Martin, Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, and Marc Turnesa have always been part of the bottom third of drivers so they don’t hit it far. Last year’s winner Bryson DeChambeau was 30th for the week and T-34th over 2019 while Patrick Cantlay in 2018 was T-8th in driving distance and 33rd for the year. So what kind of players wins at TPC Summerlin?

Of the 13 champions since 2007, six of them were in the top-five of greens in regulation and only two champions, Patrick Cantlay in 2017 was T-17th and Kevin Na, were both higher than 13th (Na was 40th when he won in 2011). Another important item is putting, six of the winners were in the top-10 in putting average with only two not in the top-20 (Cantlay was 9th last year). The one stat that seems important is that of the last 12 winners, eight of them were in double digits in under par figures on the par 4s. 2010 winner Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under, in 2017 Rod Pampling was 13 under, 2018 champion Patrick Cantlay was 9 under on the par 4s and Bryson DeChambeau was 12 under last year. (This is important, Cantlay led the par 4s with the best average, it was down due to the winds).

In looking at the course averages from last year, the one thing that sticks out is that TPC Summerlin was the 28th hardest course to drive it in the fairway in calm conditions but in windy conditions in 2018 it was the 8th hardest course to drive. In 2017 it was 7th, the hardest in looking at the history of the course, in 2016 it ranked 11th and in 2015 it was 17th so hitting it straight is important. In looking at our champions since 2009, all of them finished in the top-20 with last year’s winner Bryson DeChambeau ranking 4th in driving accuracy while Patrick Cantlay ranked T-5th in 2018. Some other keys to playing well are making lots of birdies, last year DeChambeau had 22 birdies while in 2018 Cantlay had 20 birdies which were tied for the most of the tournament and an average of one in every 3 and a half holes played.

One important item is the weather, every day is mostly perfect in Las Vegas this time of year with lots of sun and temperatures in the mid-80s. The good news for the players, each day the winds will be low averaging about 6 mph.
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/1041657:5:US

So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving hit straight and far makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained off-the-tee because driving is the key to playing well. Our second important category is proximity to the hole. The course ranked T-13th last year and 44th in greens hit last year. In 2018 in the wind, it was 5th in Proximity to Hole and 28th in Greens in Regulation which means lots of greens will be hit. So in order to make birdies, the person that gets his shots from the fairways close will do very well. Next up we pick not only scrambling but Sand saves, because if the greens are missed you have to still make par. Last year the field averaged 5th in scrambling and with 51 greenside bunkers, the field was 11th in sand save percentage so our third category is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green. Last we pick par breakers which are the combination of birdies and eagles made during the round. Making lots of birdies and eagles is always important, especially on a desert course like TPC Summerlin.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length of that a shot going into the green leaves a player.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Par Breakers: Combination of birdies and eagles to get a percentage of holes played under par

122 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from 2020. Players like Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, Gary Woodland and Webb Simpson don’t have stats yet:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a look at the other 112 players and their stats for 2020

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Brooks Koepka – $11,700
• Patrick Cantlay- $11,100
• Bryce DeChambeau – $10,700
• Webb Simpson – $10,200
• Adam Scott – $10,000
• Tony Finau – $9,800
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,700
• Gary Woodland – $9,500
• Collin Morikawa – $9,500
• Joaquin Niemann – $9,400
• Cameron Champ $9,300
• Brandt Snedeker – $9,200
• Adam Hadwin – $9,100
• Byeong Hun An – $9,000

What a great field, the best that Las Vegas has gotten in years.  With it, I see no players to really shy away from which makes it tough.  What has happened on Tour in the first three events is some really young great stars winning, something that is different.  In past years fall events have produce winners that had no sticking power but we saw this changing last year when Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar, Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Champ and Charles Howell III won.  So yes we are still looking for that future star, but more upon the lines of a Byeong Hun An or a Scottie Scheffler or even Lucas Bjerregaard.  Again it’s very easy to say hey Brooks Koepka and Patrick Cantlay are your guys for this week but as we know DraftKings is more than picking winners, we have to also pick guys that produce lots of birdies and eagles.

So first up is Brooks Koepka at $11,700 yes he is Brooks Koepka and yes he will probably contend.  Last time he played in this event in 2017 he finished 2nd and made the most birdies 25.  He missed the cut in 2016 but finished T-4th in 2015, making 3 eagles and 13 birdies so yes he is a very good pick despite the fact of no playing in over a month.  Now Koepka didn’t play since the Tour Championship and revealed to the media on Wednesday at the Shriners that on September 2nd he had a stem cell procedure done on a partially torn patella tendon that had been bothering him since March.  He spent 3 weeks rehabbing the knee and says that for the first time his body is 100% pain free.  Brooks had some wrist problems in 2018 and that is now finally 100% so it will be interesting to see how he does.  Patrick Cantlay at $11,100 is also a great choice and probably better than Koepka when you consider he was 2nd in this event last year with 26 birdies and won in 2018 with 20 birdies.  So frankly we shouldn’t have to go any further in this price category, you have two good choices.  But we will go through the motions. Bryce DeChambeau is $10,700 and won this last year with 22 birdies and one eagle and he was T-7th in 2018.  He also played good last week in Safeway which could muddle things up a bit.  Webb Simpson is $10,200 and plays well in this event, nothing in the order of the first three but Simpson won here in 2014.  He is playing for the first time this year and frankly when you have such great numbers for the others above him why think about Simpson, he is a no for me.  Adam Scott at $10,000 is someone to think about, he has never played in this event but he has played very well of late, makes lots of birdies and even though you can’t take him should consider him because I think he is ready to win and win soon.  Tony Finau at $9,800 I say no because he hasn’t played that great in Las Vegas and is coming back from playing in Europe.  Hideki Matsuyama is $9,700 and despite finishing T-10th in his only Vegas start in 2015 I say no just because he doesn’t have the power to make enough birdies to keep pace with others.  Gary Woodland at $9,500 is someone to think about, he has been ok in Vegas finishing T-10th last year.  But he hasn’t played since the Tour Championship so I say no to him.  Collin Morikawa at $9,500 is a rookie and many will take him because he can do anything but I am going to hold off on him because his price is too high.  The same with Joaquin Niemann at $9,400, yes he won three weeks ago and finished T-10th but his price is way too high.  Cameron Champ at $9,300 is a not just because he won and will have a lot of baggage with his grandfather who is about to die, they were very close.  Brandt Snedeker at $9,200 is a not, sorry just not a good enough record in Vegas and doesn’t make enough birdies.  Adam Hadwin at $9,100 could be a good choice due to him finishing 2nd last week in Safeway but he doesn’t have the numbers in Vegas and he is another no.  Last is Byeong Hun An at $9,000 and he is another no, just not enough birdie power.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money:

Dylan Frittelli at $8,900 may be a rookie in this event but he finished T-6th at the Sanderson Farms and T-7th at the Safeway.  On top of that, was 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-te-Green and 1st in Par Breakers.  Scottie Scheffler at $8,800 is expensive for a rookie but he is playing well this year and is 3rd in Par Breakers along with being 10th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.  Take a look at Charles Howell III at $8,500, he has a good record at TPC Summerlin with 4 top-tens but I like that he is 6th in Par Breakers for the year.  J.T. Poston at $8,500 is my top pick, he was T-4th in this event in 2018 and for the year was T-11th at the Sanderson Farms were he was 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 4th in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green and 6th in Par Breakers.  Kevin Na is $7,700 and he has a Jeckel and Hyde record at this event, but he is a past winner and you never know.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Hard to believe that you can get Keegan Bradley so cheap at $7,500, at that price it’s a no-brainer since he is 13th in Par Breakers.  Like Lucas Bjerregaard at $7,300 who has returned from Europe and is ready to go.  Chesson Hadley is $7,100 is a great choice considering that in five starts he has three top-seven finishes including a T-7th last year and T-4th in 2018.  It may be worthwhile placing Lanto Griffin at $7,200 on your team, he has been in the top-20 in all three starts this year.  Also like Zach Johnson at $7,100, he has played well this year.  Nobody will be picking Cameron Percy at $7,000, this Aussie has played well the last two weeks and could do well this week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open:

The key stat for the winner:

Making lots of birdies is important.  The average for the last 15 winners since the course reverted to a 72 hole affair is is 22 under and the winners average making 24 birdies per event or six per round.  So the secret is to make a lot of birdies.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• With fairways that are wide open, fairways with lots of roll, dominating the par 5s has been a key.  It’s also interesting to note that in the last 15 years the winners have averaged 10 under par on the par 4s.  Last year Bryson DeChambeau was 12 under the best of anyone in the field.  In 2018 Patrick Cantlay was 1 over the only time a winner has been over par but remember it was very windy.  In 2017 Rod Pampling was 13 under on the par 4s, in 2016 Smylie Kaufman was 6 under on the par 4s while Ben Martin was 9 under in 2015 and in 2014 Webb Simpson was 12 under the same as Ryan Moore was in 2012. Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under in 2010 while the least lowest was 6 under by George McNeill in 2007.
• Being an accurate driver, a long driver or a person that hits a lot of greens doesn’t give you a big advantage.  Scrambling is very important it ranked 6th on the PGA Tour last year.  If there ever was a tournament that favors the newcomer, this is it.
• Most of the time the weather is wonderful, it should be that way this year, with very little wind.
• You have to realize where you’re at, in Las Vegas “lady luck” is very important in winning, a lot of players that you would never think would win have found the “luck factor” in victory.