BlogNine Bridges Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So it’s off to Korea for an event that not only has a lot of FedEx Cup points (500) but a purse of $9.75 million with the winner getting $1.75 million.  To put this in proper perspective, of the 47 events on the PGA Tour last year, only eight events had higher first-place prizes, the four majors, three WGC and the Players Championship.  So this week’s CJ Cup will have the highest prize of any non-major, non WGC field.  So we can see why so many good players would venture halfway around the world.  Another reason for the journey is the site, the Club at Nine Bridges is located on Jeju Island which is an island about 75 miles off the southern end of the Korea peninsula.  So it’s located approximately 500 miles from Seoul in an area that is considered the safest place in not only South Korea but in the world.

On top of that players won’t even have to worry about dealing with Seoul, they can fly straight to Jeju International airport from either Tokyo, Hong Kong, or even Beijing.  There are a lot of high-end hotels on the island, that cater to high-end travelers, in Asia the Jeju Island is know has a significant vacation place, so for the players, they can feel safe this week.  So in a way, this is a bit of a working vacation for a lot of cash.

As for the field, they were able to get some marquee players between Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, Ian Poulter, Jordan Spieth, and Gary Woodland, along with a lot of top Korean players, 15 to be exact and two players from the Asian Tour.  So the tournament will be one of the most competitive events outside a major, even for those that finish at the bottom of the leaderboard they will get over $17,000, so the payday will be outstanding.

Phil makes the trip

For anyone wondering why Phil is here, he will play in not only Korea but next week in Japan and the week after in China as he desperately tries to either find some form or sucks up enough to Tiger Woods to make the Presidents Cup team.   Phil has one of the most incredible longevity streaks in sports, probably close to Cal Ripken Jr.’s streak of playing in 2,632 consecutive baseball games as Mickelson has played in 24 consecutive Ryder and President Cups going back to 1994.  Phil would love to make it an even 25 but it will take a lot to prove to captain Tiger Woods that he deserves a spot.  Still, Phil has worked hard on his game, has lost close to 20 pounds and frankly is a good father figure in the team room and with a stellar team can easily be hidden.  So it will be an interesting choice for Woods, especially if he also picks himself for the team.

Course information:

As for the course, it’s considered one of the top-100 in the world and the best course in Korea.  It was built in 2000 as part of a very private club attracting the top names in Korean business.  When it opened in 2001 Chi Chi Rodriguez called the course the “Taj Mahl of Golf.”  It’s architects Ronald Fream, and David Dale isn’t very well know, and they set out to create a Scottish Highlands course set at the foot of Mount Halla, an extinct volcano that is 6,300 feet tall. The Korean people have worshiped the mountain as being a place that God’s and spirits live on.  The biggest strength of the course is that it is a nature-friendly course and the designers made sure not to ruin the stunning setting with its views of the countryside and Mount Halla.  After the course opened in 2001, the LPGA played on the course four years between 2002 and 2005.  Last year for the first time the best players in the world got to play it in a competition.

Set out in two distinct nines, the course begins with the heavily treed and rolling outward nine and closes with the lake infested back nine, strangely considered by the club to be its Scottish side. The front nine is very good and has a distinctly British feel with some nice plateau greens, a Redan-shaped par three and even a Principal’s Nose bunker complex. The more open back nine is less impressive and a much more modern, Americanized form of golf design, complete with a cliché par five finisher that bends almost 90 degrees toward an island green.  The course features eight bridges – the ninth is metaphorical as a link from the club to members and guests.

For this week the PGA Tour has set up the course to play at par 72 and 7,241 yards. Water comes in play on six holes with three holes being played over a ravine.  The course is well bunkered, but like most modern courses they are more for decoration and shouldn’t be much of a problem for players.

As for the weather, it’s going to be great with the exception of Friday that is supposed to have a 70% chance of rain.  Each day will be 70 degrees, with low humidity and winds from 7 to 10 mph each day.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Nine Bridges.

Last year was the second CJ Cup@Nine Bridges, and the first two have been a big success. The Club at Nine Bridges is one of those hidden gems that takes a significant effort to get to. It’s a 12 and a half hour, 5,700-mile journey from San Francisco and that’s just the first leg. After that, it’s an hour flight to another island and the town of Jeju which is 500 miles away and after that, it’s a 30-mile trek to Nine Bridges. For the average golfer, Nine Bridges is awesome and fearsome as it meanders at the foot of an extinct volcano. But for the best golfers in the world, it’s pretty tame. That showed as 60 of the 78 players were under par, as for the week the course played to a 70.95 average making it the 31st hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2019. Now in it’s first year it played to a 73.19 average making it the 4th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2018. So you can see what happens when those players of the PGA Tour get to learn a golf course.

Based on the most vital stats from Nine Bridges from last year’s event and data from all the players in the field with PGA Tour stats from 2020 we have cobbled together some stats that will help you decide on who statistically to chose. Unfortunately with the event being played in Korea, we don’t have true Shotlink stats to work with, they don’t even measure driving distance, so we are stuck with the old-fashion stats of fairways and greens hit, scrambling, number of putts, birdies, and eagles made. Now the stats from the first two years show us very little, those in the top of the leaderboard didn’t hit it very straight and of the two winners, Justin Thomas in 2018 was T-44th and Brooks Koepka last year was T-23rd in Greens hit. But both of them were high in putts, Thomas took the least amount of putts with 115 and Koepka took 115 and was T-5th. Both dominated on the Par 5s, but it was interesting the importance of playing the par 4s well in 2019.
So in picking stats since we have had five events for 2020 on a good test of different types of courses, our number on stat is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. We pick this because the course caters to all types of drivers of the ball, yes winners Thomas and Koepka hit it long, but players like Cameron Smith finished 3rd in 2018 and Ryan Palmer and Rafael Cabrera-Bello were 3rd in 2019 and don’t hit it long. We do see the importance in Strokes Gained Putting, it’s an important element to putt well in putting both past winner Thomas and Koepka showed that. The same with Par Breakers, making lot’s of eagles and Birdies is important on this course. Last but not least, we were very surprised to see how well the top-four did in playing the par 4s last year. Koepka was 12 under, Gary Woodland was 9 under along with Ryan Palmer and Rafael Cabrera-Bello was 10 under.
Since the weather was pretty much the same between 2018 and ’19 it’s very strange to see the winner go from -9 to -21 and since only six players were 12 under and better we can only think that it was a flunk and that the winning score will be right around 14 under this year.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

*Par Breakers: Players that make the most birdies and eagles averaged per rounds played

*Par 4 Scoring average: The find who plays the best on the par 4s.

56 of the 78 players from this year’s field with stats from 2020.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a look at all 56 players in the field of the CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Justin Thomas – $11,700
• Brooks Koepka – $11,400
• Hideki Matsuyama – $10,700
• Viktor Holland – $10,500
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,300
• Collin Morikawa – $10,100
• Jordan Spieth – $10,000
• Sungjae Im – $9,700
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello – $9,600
• Jason Day – $9,500
• Gary Woodland – $9,400
• Billy Horschel – $9,300
• Marc Leishman – $9,200
• Sergio Garcia – $9,100
• Cameron Smith – $9,000

After a tough couple of weeks with the new 65 and under cut rule we have a run of three weeks of no cuts.  So we now can see all six of our picks go 72 holes.  The top-dog is Justin Thomas at $11,700 and he should be that since he hasn’t been out of the top-12 since back in June.  Yes, that’s seven starts with one of them, the BMW Championship a win.  I can see the streak continuing since Thomas has good vibes on this course, he is a good buy.  As for Brooks Koepka at $11,400, he had his first missed cut at Las Vegas two weeks ago.  Kind of should have seen that coming since he just had surgery and didn’t play much.  Will he will this week, I don’t think so.  Think he will be ok, but I wouldn’t risk the price of $11,400 on him with so many other great choices.  Hideki Matsuyama at $10,700 could be considered a good choice but if you look at his body of work of late he was T-16th in Las Vegas and missed the cut at Safeway so I wouldn’t take him.  Viktor Holland at $10,500 should be a good pick, he was T-10th at Greenbrier and T-11th at BMW PGA, I love his chances on this course.  Tommy Fleetwood is $10,300 and he was ok finishing T-5th at St. Andrews but again he hasn’t really been in contention so it’s up to you but I am passing on him.  Same with Collin Morikawa at $10,100, who put him in this rarified air is beyond me.  Yes, he won but since has a T-10th at Safeway and that’s it.  Jordan Spieth at $10,100 is a big question mark, we don’t know what he has been doing to get his game back in shape but I will wait and see.  Sungjae Im is $9,700 and he has been the hottest player in golf.  While the PGA Tour was in Houston, Im ventured home and won the Genesis Championship in Korea so he could be the favorite this week with Justin Thomas.  Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $9,600 is a sneaky guy, not much has been said of him but since the U.S. Open, he has played in nine events and been in the top-ten five times including a runner-up finish two weeks ago in the Spanish Open so he is one to watch.  The only problem his price is high and he doesn’t make as many birdies, but remember this he was T-3rd at Nine Bridges last year.  Jason Day at $9,500 is another question mark.  We have heard very little about him since he ended his season poorly with a T-52nd at the BMW Championship.  Since his back scare at the Arnold Palmer, he struggled, yes he was T-8th at the Players and T-5th at the Masters but struggled in his other events and we don’t know if it was body-related, swing related, confidence related, head-related or a combination of all of these things.  The big question will Day ever get back to the potential that we all thought that he had?  With him turning 32 next month he is in his prime and we should be talking about him in the same vein as we talk about Rory, Justin, Dustin, and Brooks.  But he seems to get worse instead of better.  So 2020 may be important to see if he can reclaim his formal glory.  Gary Woodland is at $9,400 and on paper is a person you would take.  He was runner-up here last year and won the U.S. Open, but since his victory at Pebble has done nothing, in seven starts his best was a T-15th in the limited field Tour Championship, so I say pass on Woodland.  Billy Horschel is $9,300 and despite finishing T-4th in his last start at the BMW Championship I don’t have much faith in him this week, Nine Bridges is not his type of course.  But Marc Leishman at $9,200 is a different story, he plays well here and was 3rd at the Safeway Open I say he is a good pick.  Sergio Garcia at $9,100 could also be a good pick, he one the KLM Open and was T-7th at the Spanish Open, again you really never know what you will get with Garcia so pick him with caution.  Last on the list is Cameron Smith at $9,000, honestly, have no idea why you would even think of picking him at this price.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Danny Willett at $8,900 should catch your interest just because he won the BMW PGA Championship, honestly, he is a solid player but doesn’t make enough birdies to justify the cost.  Have to like Kevin Na at $8,600, he seems to have been around the victory circle a bit winning in Vegas and Colonial in May.  He is a consistent player that doesn’t make many birdies and frankly, I say no to him because of this.  Now your going to need to find low price players and one to think about is Chez Reavie at $8,300.  He was T-7th last year at Nine Bridges, he can play well on this type of course.  The same with Tyrrell Hatton at $8,200, I like him he was T-14th last year in this event.  Pat Perez is cheap at $7,500 and remembers he loves playing this time of year.  After missing three cuts in a row, was 3rd at Vegas and was T-7th at Nine Bridges last year

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the CJ Cup

Scott Piercy at $7,400 is good for the birdies he makes and he was T-5th last year.  Phil Mickelson at $7,300, it’s gotten this bad?  Have to take him just because he will make a lot of birdies, yes he could make high numbers but will be high up in eagles and birdies.  Ryan Palmer is $7,200 and you have to like the fact that this year he leads the PGA Tour Par Breakers.  Brian Stuard at $6,900 is worth a look at since he was T-4th at Las Vegas, he is also 81st in Par Breakers and 8th in par 4 scoring.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Nine Bridges:

The key stat for the winner:

Of the field of 78 players, only a handful have seen the course.  So for each player, it will be a new adventure learning the course.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• The course will be in perfect condition, and the greens will be some of the finest they play.  Since there isn’t much undulation in them, I think an excellent putter will do well.
• In 2018 we saw the epic playoff between two bombers, Justin Thomas and Marc Leishman.  Last year we saw a great performance of ball striking and putting as Brooks Koepka lapped the field.  One thing they have in common, they hit it long so I have to say look toward the bomber to do well this week.  Have to think that this will continue and if someone that bombs it has a big advantage, especially on the back nine which is more open than the front.  Also like a person that makes a lot of birdies, this is the trend on those playing a new course.  Remember this, no matter what people say about a course, the advantage is always on the top players in the world, they play a different game than all of us and shouldn’t have problems scoring on this course.
• One last thing, look for players that have done well of late.