BlogMayakoba Golf Classic Preview and Picks

Some personal notes

As some of you know I had my left knee replaced on October 30th.  Everything is great, still a bit of pain but getting back to normal.  I can’t spend much time at the computer, but the time is growing each day.  After getting my right knee replaced last year I really look forward to having my life back and not suffering from the pain of having constant knee pain in walking and climbing stairs.  I have timed this with the season slowing down so that I can get some rest and be back to normal for the start of 2020.

On another sad note,

I have a death to report. Many of you probably don’t know who Howard Cosell or Jim McKay or even Jack Whitaker where?  They were iconic announcers in the 70s and the 80s, Cosell was a living legend doing Monday Night Football and other sports.  All these men were very important in the sports world, but time has passed and what they did have also passed.  In golf, the act of reporting the news of golf was done by a magazine called Golf World.  Started in 1947 it was a weekly that use to do the write-ups and stories of tournaments each week and was the most valuable way of keeping up with the news of golf, it was the Bible of golf until the internet took over and made it obsolete.  The magazine ended it’s run in 2013 and the name is now a 24-hour website.

In the 67 years, the magazine was around it only had seven editors and its fourth one was Terry Galvin.  For years he was a hardcore newsman and editor at papers in Miami, Akron, San Jose and the sports editor at the Milwaukee Journal before the New York Times, who owned Golf World decided to hire Galvin.  Now the Times also owned Golf Digest, which at the time was the top golf magazine of the time, but Golf Digest didn’t have anyone with the experience of working with tight deadlines and turning stories overnight as Galvin had.

Galvin was the person who gave me my start in magazine work.  At that time I was an associate producer at ABC Sports, but I also had a big database of golf information and dabbled in doing sport information charts.  Galvin saw some of my worked and help me make it better and hired me in 1993 to do charts and informational stuff for the weekly magazine.

Galvin had a love for golf and the staff loved Terry.  Yes, he was like a drill sergeant at times, but he was kind and patient with people and would always make people’s work turn out better.

Terry died last week at the age of 79 after an extended period of declining health.  I for one have thought about Terry a lot since I left Golf World in 1997 and loved talking with him over the years.  I know he will be in my thoughts for years to come.

The Buzz:

Have to say coming into this week the thoughts are on two players, Rickie Fowler and Matt Kuchar.

Rickie Fowler

It hasn’t been a good last 8 months for Fowler since he won the Waste Management Phoenix Open.  With that victory, everyone anticipated a great year from him and with his T-2nd at the Honda Classic things continued to role in that direction.  But Fowler didn’t play well in his next three events and did finish T-9th at the Masters and T-4th at the Wells Fargo.  Still, his game wasn’t sharp the rest of the year, after the Wells Fargo in ten starts he had one top-ten a T-6th at the British Open so in a way 2019 proved to be a disappointment.

The plan for Fowler was to get married on the first of October and come back at the Mayakoba.  At the same time he knew he was at the mercy of Tiger Woods for getting on the Presidents Cup team.  But things went bad during the honeymoon,  The couple got married in Cabo, Mexico and despite trying to keep the honeymoon location a secret the first stop was South Africa where they would visit some remote beaches.  Wherever they went Fowler came down with Campylobacter jejuni, which is among the most common bacterial infections and leads to cramps, fever, pain, and diarrhea.  The couple returned home and Rickie has been treated but he is not ready to play Mayakoba, which he had planned on playing in.  As of now, Fowler is supposed to play the Hero World Challenge but rumor has it that Rickie could be Tiger’s first pick for the Presidents Cup team if Brooks Koepka’s knee isn’t up to par for the trip.  Still in this world of ultra secrecy, we really don’t know the last time Rickie really played (His last competitive round was the Tour Championship in August) or in what shape his game really is.  So the answer to what’s up with Rickie Fowler is nobody seems to know.

Matt Kuchar

He returns to Mayakoba to defend his title, but this year with his regular caddie in tow.  After the ruckus, in which he used a local caddy and won and then found out of social media afterward that the caddie felt he wasn’t paid enough which created a major hassle for Kuchar.  After his win in Mexico, he went on to win at the Sony Open, then was T-4th in Phoneix and was runner-up at the WGC-Dell Match Play and RBC Heritage.  But after that his game went into an arctic freeze, his T-16th at the U.S. Open was the best finish in his last seven starts.  He hasn’t played since missing the cut at the Porsche European Open and it’s thought that he has been working on his game since he has to play in the Presidents Cup.  Still, he will have a couple of days of hassle over the caddie problem, but he is playing a course that he owned last year so we will have to wait and see if his game has improved.

Course information:

El Camaleon was built by Greg Norman and opened in 2004. The course goes through three distinct landscapes tropical jungle, dense mangroves, and sand-lined oceanfront. The design even incorporates a cenote – an underground cavern common to the area – into the heart of the first fairway. The PGA Tour made its first stop in 2007, spending six years opposite the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship until getting its own fall date this year.

Located 45 minutes south of Cancun, in the heart of the Riviera Maya, Camaleon is aptly named for its diverse layout and ever-changing landscape, always in total harmony with the region’s natural beauty.

For those that think that this is a resort course and is a pushover, that’s not the case.  So what will the field be challenged by?  Conditions of wind on holes that get close to the sea, the par 3 7th and 15th are on the beach.  Course water hazards come into play on six of the holes and there are 36 bunkers to avoid.  The greens average 7,000 square feet with the grass being a special blend called Sea Isle 1 Paspalum which is unique because you can use a seawater blend in irrigating the fairways, tees, and greens.  The course has a rating of 73.8 from the back tees with a slope of 137.

In looking at long-range forecasts the weather is supposed to be ok with partly cloudy skies everyday and winds coming out of the east at 7 mph.  Temperatures will be good averaging around 85 each day.  There is a good chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday, other than that it should be ok.

let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at El Camaleon

This is based on the most vital stats from El Camaleon based on data from last year’s OHL Classic at Mayakoba and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020.
This is the 13th year that the OHL Classic at Mayakoba is being played at El Camaleon. With it played in Mexico, we don’t have true Shotlink stats to work with, so we are stuck with the old-fashion stats of fairways hit, driving distance, greens hit, scrambling, number of putts, birdies, and eagles made. The one thing to understand about this week, last year El Camaleon played to a 69.25 average which was a shot and three-quarters of a shot under par as it ranked the 39th hardest course on the PGA Tour. It played easy last year due to low winds which is rare for this area which normally gets high winds. In 2018 it played to a 70.32 average while in 2016 it was played at 70.02, both years in windy conditions. In looking at the long-range forecast, winds won’t get higher than 11 mph on Saturday so scoring should be lower this year.

So the course did play easier, it ranked 27th in fairways hit while in 2018 it ranked 32nd. In driving distance it ranked 15th compared to 4th in 2018, meaning that players don’t hit it very long on this course, last year it averaged 287.4, probably again due to winds. Maybe that is the reason that short hitter tends to do very well on this course as Charley Hoffman in 2015 was the only long hitter. Last year Matt Kuchar won and he ranked 135th on tour in driving distance for 2019. The point is that this event doesn’t see bombers doing well, you need a lot of other things to win, so you can’t call El Camaleon a bombers delight.

So what can we look at historically to help us find players that should do well this week? Looking at the field from last year, all of them hit six and a half out of ten fairways, a very high percentage. They also hit lots of greens, 7 of 10. Of the greens that they missed, they got it up and down just under 6 out of every 10 tries and averaged 28.59 putts per round. So it’s easy to see how each of the players in the field averaged 4.35 birdies per round and either made birdie or eagle on a quarter of the holes that they played. So frankly for the average pro, El Camaleon is a layup.

In looking at the 27 players that have finished 5th or better in the last five Mayakoba’s, the trend is that driving the ball is not important. Of the 27 players, only eight players finished the week in the top-ten in fairways hit and on six players finished in the top-ten in driving distance. In 2018 only one player in the top-ten finished in the top-ten in fairways hit while in 2019 two finished in the top-ten. Now of those same 27 players, 11 of them were in the top-ten of greens hit, with two players leading that stat. Of the 27 players, 12 of the players finished in the top-ten in putts per round. Also looking at the 27 players, they averaged playing the par 3s in 4 under, the par 4s in 6 under and the par 5s in 8 under. The 27 players average making 22 birdies so you can see it’s very important to play the par 5s well and make lot’s of birdies.
In looking at last year’s winner Matt Kuchar, he was T-28th in driving distance and T-3rd in fairways hit so that holds up with our thoughts that driving is meaningless at El Camaleon. Now he was T-9th in greens hit, T-5th in scrambling and T-21st in putts per round. Going a step further, Kuchar had one 3-putts and was T-39th in one-putts, showing that around the greens and on the greens was important in his win. On the par 3s, he played them in 4 under, the best of the week was Danny Lee at 6 under. Were Kuchar excel on was the par 4s and par 5s. He was 10 under on the par 4s, (he was best in the field) and he was also best in the field on the par 5s at 8 under. Kuchar made 26 birdies, again best in the field.

So in looking at our four categories, we are going to bring a premium on putting and hitting greens. Normally we would pick strokes gained – putting, but since we are using 2019 stats and only three of the six events have that stat, we are picking putting average as our first category, last year El Camaleon ranked 46th in this stat. Our next important stat is greens hit, again that is a stat that is important for El Camaleon, on tour it was 34th. Our third important stat is par breakers, again making lot’s of eagles and birdies is important, last year it ranked 43rd best. Last we are going to look at Par 4 leaders since this was an important stat for those on top of the leaderboard, on tour El Camaleon ranked T-24th.

One last thing to watch for is players that did well last year and be sure not to forget about Web.Com tour players. Remember the tour has been in Asia for three weeks and with the tour off last week most of these guys have not played in four weeks so they could be a bit rusty.

*Putting Average: A look at who has the least amount of putts per round.

*Greens in Regulation: Who hits the most greens during the week.

*Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

*Par 4 leaders: A look at who plays the par 4s the most for the week.

117 of the 132 players from this year’s field with stats from 2020

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to the other 107 players stats for 2020

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Matt Kuchar – $11,400
• Viktor Hovland – $11,200
• Jason Day – $11,000
• Tony Finau – $10,600
• Billy Horschel – $10,200
• Joaquin Niemann – $9,800
• Charles Howell III – $9,600
• Aaron Wise – $9,400
• Russell Knox – $9,300
• Abraham Ancer – $9,200
• Scottie Scheffler- $9,100
• Lanto Griffin – $9,000

Just remember in picking that marquee names, or in this game players with high price tags don’t seem to win.  So fantasy golf wisdom states you don’t take any of the top players.  Frankly, I have to say that Matt Kuchar at $11,400 is a high price for what he has done lately and I would say he is not a person I would pick.  Viktor Hovland at $11,200 is also not a person that I am going to risk that kind of money on with his spotty record for the year.  Jason Day at $11,000 has not shown us much in his Japan and Korean starts but I can see taking him because he has the potential.  The same with Tony Finau at $10,600, he can play this course and is worth the risk.  Billy Horschel at $10,200 I say no just because he hasn’t proven himself at Mayakoba.  Now Joaquin Niemann at $9,800 is ok to take, yes lot’s of upside on him, the same with Charles Howell III at $9,600.  I can see why Aaron Wise is high at $9,400.  He was T-3rd at Bermuda a couple of weeks ago and T-10th last year at Mayakoba, so it’s up to you.  The same with Russell Knox at $9,300.  I see the high side with his T-11th at the Bermuda Championship, but his record at Mayakoba makes him a great pick.  Abraham Ancer at $9,200 is a stretch and I say no.  Scottie Scheffler at $9,100 is just based on his finishing T-3rd at Bermuda, I would call him a toss-up pick since he has never played at Mayakoba.  One thing in his favor, his stats for the year in key areas to play well at El Camaleon is off of the charts.  Lanto Griffin at $9,000 is another toss-up pick, I say no to him.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Emiliano Grillo at $8,900 is a good pick considering his three good starts in this event.  Also, like Kevin Kisner at $8,800 and Keegan Bradley at $8,600.  Denny McCarthy at $8,400 is a good pick since his stats in key areas that are needed to play well at El Camaleon are high.  Danny Lee at $8,300 is a good pick, he has played well of late.  Also, have to like Pat Perez at $8,100 due to him winning in the past.  Like Harris English at $8,000 as a past winner despite some terrible play in this event since.  Brian Gay at $7,900 is also a past champion and one that always seems to stick around and does well.  While we talk about past champions how about Graeme McDowell at $7,800 he seems to always have a surprise or two up his sleeve.  Last on our list is Scott Piercy at $7,600.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Mayakoba Golf Classic

Watch both Kyle Stanley at $7,300 and Charley Hoffman at $7,200. Very surprised to see that you can get Luke list at $7,100, Martin Laird at $7,100 and Patton Kizzire at $7,000.  Also, watch Kevin Chappell at $6,700 as he fights back from injury.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Mayakoba Golf Classic:

The key stat for the winner:

In a tournament that has a history of younger players participating, older more experienced players have done well.  One historical oddity is the fact that ten of the 12 past winners were over 30 with all the average winners just a month short of being 35.  Last year’s winner Matt Kuchar was 40 years old. The first winner Fred Funk was 2 months short of his 51st birthday and 2017 winner Pat Perez was 40 years old. So old may be something to look for this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

The tournament has had limited stats, in 2012 John Huh led the greens hit category missing only 13 of the 72 greens. while 2014 winner Harris English was T-10th hitting 55 of 72 greens.  In 2015 Charley Hoffman hit 56 of 72 greens and ranked 4th while in 2016 Graeme McDowell hit 51 of 72 greens, was ranked T-30th and in 2017 Pat Perez hit 55 of 72 greens and ranked T-11th.  In 2018 Patton Kizzire hit 35 fairways which ranked T-52nd and hit 54 greens which ranked T-7th.  Last year Matt Kuchar hit 45 fairways with ranked 3rd and hit 57 greens which ranked T-9th  So I would say players and winners tend to hit lots of greens at El Camaleon.  One other oddity that I noticed of the winners, they did very well on the par 3s, In 2014 English played them in 9 under, Hoffman played them in 3 under, in 2016 McDowell played them in 5 under while Pat Perez was 9 under on them in 2017 and Kizzire was -4 in 2018 and Matt Kuchar was 4 under last year.