BlogDP World, Dubai Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The final series has been a bit better now that it’s just three events and going into this week it’s a five-man race with Bernd Wiesberger in the lead, with that lead substantial over Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry, and Matt Fitzpatrick but if any of these players win, Wiesberger needs to finish runner-up to win the Race to Dubai. So this will be an exciting race and to top things off the winner will get a first-place check of $3 million dollars, which will be the biggest first-place check in golf.  So maybe that is the reason that they got a great field with most of the top players showing up.

One disappointment is that Rory McIlroy is sixth in the Race to Dubai and even if he wins there is no way for him to win the Race to Dubai, still that’s not a problem when you consider that other than the majors and WGC events, Rory only played in four European Tour events starting with the Scottish Open over the summer.

Be interesting to see with the success of the fall tour in which McIlroy played in three events, plus the WGC-HSBC Champions if in 2020 even more players including those on the PGA Tour find there way to the European Tour next fall after the FedEx Cup finishes.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy $11,800
• Jon Rahm – $11,500
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,600
• Patrick Reed – $10,400
• Justin Rose – $10,200
• Tyrrell Hatton – $10,000
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – $9,800
• Henrik Stenson – $9,400
• Louis Oosthuizen – $9,200

I will put more resources into this event than the RSM.  I think that I have a better chance because I have a better understanding of European Tour players and the outcome always seems to have a better result with marquee names doing ok.  The only problem, the games aren’t that big with big prizes and games worth playing, oh well.  The first choice by DraftKings is Rory McIlroy $11,800 and there is a great reason for that.  His last start he won in China and he has played well in this event with two wins and seven top-ten finishes, so yes even at the price you have to pick him.  Jon Rahm at $11,500 also presents a problem because he too has a great record at Jumeirah Golf Estates, plus he won in his last start at the Spanish Open a month ago.  I wish you could pick both but at the price it’s tough so you have to pick one or the other.  Tommy Fleetwood at $10,600 also presents a problem because he won last week in South Africa but he has a spotty record in Dubai so that makes the choice easy on him.  Now Patrick Reed at $10,400 is a different problem, he is playing ok and comes to a course that he has had some good success on so Reed is someone that you have to look over, but again the price is high.  Same with Justin Rose at $10,200, he has a good record at Jumeirah Golf Estates but I can’t see taking him this week.  Tyrrell Hatton at $10,000 is another tough decision, he won at his last start at the Turkish Airlines Open and has played well, plus his record is good in this event, so he is someone to think about.  Matthew Fitzpatrick at $9,800 is another to think about, his record is ok of late, not as good as the other players that we have talked about but still not bad and he won at Jumeirah in 2016 so that gives you something to think about.  Now many will think that Henrik Stenson at $9,400 is worth it due to his two wins in 2013 and ’14, but forget that his game is not close to that level and he is the first guy we can say to forget about.  The same with Louis Oosthuizen at $9,200, just don’t think he has it to win.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Now we have seen a lot of players that we can take but you can’t take many from this list.  So it’s best to find some really low price guys, or first from this price range.  The first person to be serious about is Bernd Wiesberger at $8,600.  Yes, he doesn’t have a great record on this course, but he was T-4th in 2016 so that tells us that he can do it.  He has had such a great summer I think he will play great this week as he protects his Race to Dubai title so take him.  Also like Sergio Garcia at $8,200, he seems to play well on this course but one warning he has never come close to winning, but he does make lots of birdies and his price is good.  Also, have to say that Danny Willett at $7,900 is a good price for the defending champion and gives you someone else at a good price.  Also, very surprised to see Matt Wallace go at $7,600, in his first visit to this event last year he was T-2nd, think he can do that again this year.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the DP World

In looking at some bargains, one has to be Lee Westwood at $7,500.  He won this ten years ago and yes he is old but can still play and can still finish in the top-ten plus make a lot of birdies.  Ian Poulter at $6,600 is worth the gamble considering that he has been runner-up on this course twice, yes he also hasn’t played that bad of late.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the DP World Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

In past DP World Championships, they have been dominated by six different players, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Charl Schwartzel, and Henrik Stenson.  All of them except Schwartzel is in the field and other than Westwood should be favorites.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Two essential elements come across in the previous ten winners.  First is driving distance, seven of the ten winners were in the top-ten while three (Jon Rahm 2017, Rory McIlroy 2015, and Alvaro Quiros in 2011) led while Rory McIlroy in 2012 was 2nd.  Hitting greens is also very important, last year winners Danny Willett was T-3rd, 2015 winner McIlroy was T-3rd while the previous year’s winner Henrik Stenson was T-4th and led that category in 2013 just like Lee Westwood in 2009.  In 2011 Alvaro Quiros was T2nd, so you have to hit the ball good and straight from tee to green.  In 2016 Matthew Fitzpatrick was T-21st in greens hit but was T-3rd in putts, in 2017 Jon Rahm was T-26th in greens hit and 2nd in putts.
• All of the par-5s are easy, last year Danny Willett was 12 under, in 2017 Rahm was 8 under while Fitzpatrick was 12 under on them in 2016, best of anyone along with Willett in tournament history.  In 2015 McIlroy was 9 under on them and the year before Stenson played them in 10 under. Also, at 12 under was Alvaro Quiros in 2011 while the worst was Robert Karlsson in 2010 when he played them in 7 under
• Surprisingly all the winners have played the par 4s well, last year Willett was 4 under, in 2017 Rahm was 12 under while in 2016 Fitzpatrick was 4 under on them.  In 2015 McIlroy was 10 under while the best was Henrik Stenson at 14 under in 2013. Lee Westwood played them in 13 under in 2009 while the worst was Robert Karlsson at 7 under in 2010.
• There is zero chance of any rain in the next week, and the wind could present a problem with it blowing 15 mph each day, so players won’t’ be able to attack the course as they have done in past years.