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BlogDP World, Dubai Preview and Picks

DP World Championship, Dubai

November 21st – 24th, 2019

Jumeirah Golf Estates

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,677

Purse: $8 million

with $3 million to the winner

Defending Champion:
Danny Willett

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 35 of the top 100 and 19 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with four top-ten players in the field, #2 Rory McIlroy, #5 Jon Rahm, #8 Justin Rose and #10 Tommy Fleetwood.  The other top 100 players are #13 Francesco Molinari, #14 Paul Casey, #16 Patrick Reed, #19 Shane Lowry, #23 Bernd Wiesberger, #24 Louis Oosthuizen, #25 Matthew Fitzpatrick, #28 Tyrrell Hatton, #29 Matt Wallace, #31 Danny Willett, #37 Rafa Cabrera Bello, #38 Sergio Garcia, #40 Henrik Stenson, #41 Ian Poulter, #50 Erik van Rooyen, #52 Victor Perez, #55 Lee Westwood, #62 Tom Lewis, #63 Haotong Li, #66 Justin Harding, #67 Andrea Pavan, #69 Robert MacIntyre, #70 Kurt Kitayama, #76 Paul Waring(Feb1985), #80 Matthias Schwab, #83 Joost Luiten, #85 Thomas Pieters, #91 Marcus Kinhult, #92 Benjamin Hebert, #96 Mike Lorenzo-Vera and #99 Jorge Campillo.

Last year there were 15 top-50 players in the field

The field includes 49 players who are in the top-50 of the Race to Dubai money list.  #39 Tony Finau is the only player in the top-50 not playing which if you think of it is incredible to think that they were able to get so many players to participate. Filling out the top-50 was #51 Joachim B. Hansen.

The field includes 6 of the 10 past champions that have won 8 of the 10 events played: Danny Willett (2018), Jon Rahm (2017), Matthew Fitzpatrick (2016), Rory McIlroy (2015 & ’12), Henrik Stenson (2014 & ’13) and Lee Westwood (2009).

The field includes 22 players who have won 27 of the 46 European Tour events this year: Kurt Kitayama (AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open & Oman Open), Louis Oosthuizen (South African Open), David Lipsky (Alfred Dunhill Championship), Shane Lowry (Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship & British Open), Justin Harding (CommercialBank Qatar Masters), Scott Hend (Maybank Open), Jorge Campillo (Trophee Hassan II), Marcus Kinhult (British Masters), Bernd Wiesberger (Made in Denmark, Aberdeen Asset Scottish Open, & Italian Open), Guido Migliozzi (Belgian Knockout), Andrea Pavan (BMW International Open), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Andalucia Masters), Jon Rahm (Dubai Duty Free Irish Open & Mutuactivos Open de Espana), Thomas Pieters (Czech Masters), Erik van Rooyen (Scandinavian Invitation), Paul Casey (Porsche European Open), Sergio Garcia, (KLM Open), Danny Willett (BMW PGA Championship), Victor Perez (Alfred Dunhill Links Championship), Rory McIlroy (HSBC Champions), Tyrrell Hatton (Turkish Airlines Open) and Tommy Fleetwood (Nedbank Golf Challenge).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the DP World Championship field is our performance chart listed by the average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at DP World Championship in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the DP World Championship.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the DP World Championship, Dubai

Player Nedbank Golf Challenge Turkish Airlines Open WGC HSBC Champions Portugal Masters Zozo Champ. French Open Nine Bridges Italian Open Spanish Open Dunhill Links Shriners Hospitals BMW PGA Champ. KLM Open
Kurt Kitayama
(279.67 pts)
T30
(20)
T2
(100)
T28
(22)
DNP DNP 4
(53.33)
DNP 3
(60)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T14
(18)
T21
(9.67)
Victor Perez
(243.33 pts)
DNP T2
(100)
T4
(80)
DNP DNP T16
(22.67)
DNP T57
(0)
DNP Win
(44)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Tyrrell Hatton
(236 pts)
DNP Win
(132)
T14
(36)
DNP DNP DNP T6
(40)
T18
(21.33)
DNP T15
(11.67)
DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP
Matthias Schwab
(234.33 pts)
DNP T2
(100)
T4
(80)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T28
(11)
DNP
Rory McIlroy
(222.5 pts)
DNP DNP Win
(132)
DNP T3
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T26
(8)
DNP T9
(22.5)
DNP
Robert MacIntyre
(210.33 pts)
T8
(50)
T7
(55)
T17
(33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP T26
(8)
DNP T28
(11)
DNP
Tommy Fleetwood
(194 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP T53
(0)
DNP T22
(18.67)
DNP T20
(20)
DNP DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP T60
(0)
DNP
Bernd Wiesberger
(193.17 pts)
T3
(90)
49
(1)
T49
(1)
DNP DNP DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T17
(16.5)
DNP
Marcus Kinhult
(185.67 pts)
2
(100)
T17
(33)
DNP DNP DNP T11
(26)
DNP T18
(21.33)
DNP T40
(3.33)
DNP T46
(2)
DNP
Joachim B. Hansen
(179.67 pts)
T17
(33)
T10
(40)
DNP T61
(0)
DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP T25
(16.67)
T4
(26.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Hideki Matsuyama
(177 pts)
DNP DNP T11
(39)
DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP T3
(60)
DNP DNP DNP T16
(11.33)
DNP DNP
Matthew Fitzpatrick
(171.67 pts)
T10
(40)
DNP 7
(55)
DNP 75
(0)
DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP T26
(8)
DNP T46
(2)
DNP
Paul Waring
(171.17 pts)
T24
(26)
16
(34)
T8
(50)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T25
(16.67)
DNP T3
(30)
DNP T21
(14.5)
DNP
Erik Van Rooyen
(166.67 pts)
T30
(20)
T2
(100)
T38
(12)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T14
(18)
DNP
Patrick Reed
(163.67 pts)
DNP T10
(40)
T8
(50)
DNP T17
(22)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T4
(40)
T15
(11.67)
Louis Oosthuizen
(152.67 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP 3
(90)
DNP T46
(2.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Joost Luiten
(149.83 pts)
T10
(40)
T25
(25)
T34
(16)
DNP DNP T11
(26)
DNP T25
(16.67)
DNP T40
(3.33)
DNP T31
(9.5)
T10
(13.33)
Benjamin Hebert
(149.83 pts)
T24
(26)
T2
(100)
T65
(0)
DNP DNP T16
(22.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T46
(1.33)
DNP T37
(6.5)
DNP
Jason Scrivener
(145 pts)
T3
(90)
T21
(29)
DNP DNP DNP T26
(16)
DNP T55
(0)
T7
(18.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP
Thomas Detry
(143.33 pts)
T3
(90)
T32
(18)
DNP DNP DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T23
(9)
DNP CUT
(-5)
T36
(4.67)
Shubhankar Sharma
(134.17 pts)
56
(0)
T7
(55)
DNP T21
(19.33)
DNP T40
(6.67)
DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T17
(16.5)
T40
(3.33)
Steven Brown
(128 pts)
T42
(8)
T70
(0)
DNP Win
(88)
DNP T11
(26)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T37
(4.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T64
(0)
T15
(11.67)
Xander Schauffele
(126.67 pts)
DNP DNP 2
(100)
DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Nicolas Colsaerts
(124.33 pts)
T30
(20)
T38
(12)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP T64
(0)
T17
(11)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T57
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
Matt Wallace
(123.17 pts)
T44
(6)
T50
(1)
T60
(0)
T8
(33.33)
DNP DNP DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP T15
(11.67)
DNP T41
(4.5)
3
(30)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the DP World Championship, Dubai

Player Nedbank Golf Challenge Turkish Airlines Open WGC HSBC Champions Portugal Masters Zozo Champ. French Open Nine Bridges Italian Open Spanish Open Dunhill Links Shriners Hospitals BMW PGA Champ. KLM Open
Raphael Jacquelin
(-31.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
60
(0)
DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
David Howell
(-31.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP WD
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
Thomas Bjorn
(-28.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP
David Drysdale
(-25 pts)
DNP 73
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T63
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
Jose Maria Olazabal
(-25 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
CUT
(-3.33)
Paul Dunne
(-24 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-5)
T27
(7.67)
Stuart Manley
(-23.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP T55
(0)
David Law
(-23.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T72
(0)
T60
(0)
Michael Campbell
(-23.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Matteo Manassero
(-20 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

The final series has been a bit better now that it’s just three events and going into this week it’s a five-man race with Bernd Wiesberger in the lead, with that lead substantial over Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry, and Matt Fitzpatrick but if any of these players win, Wiesberger needs to finish runner-up to win the Race to Dubai. So this will be an exciting race and to top things off the winner will get a first-place check of $3 million dollars, which will be the biggest first-place check in golf.  So maybe that is the reason that they got a great field with most of the top players showing up.

One disappointment is that Rory McIlroy is sixth in the Race to Dubai and even if he wins there is no way for him to win the Race to Dubai, still that’s not a problem when you consider that other than the majors and WGC events, Rory only played in four European Tour events starting with the Scottish Open over the summer.

Be interesting to see with the success of the fall tour in which McIlroy played in three events, plus the WGC-HSBC Champions if in 2020 even more players including those on the PGA Tour find there way to the European Tour next fall after the FedEx Cup finishes.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:
  • Rory McIlroy $11,800
  • Jon Rahm – $11,500
  • Tommy Fleetwood – $10,600
  • Patrick Reed – $10,400
  • Justin Rose – $10,200
  • Tyrrell Hatton – $10,000
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick – $9,800
  • Henrik Stenson – $9,400
  • Louis Oosthuizen – $9,200

I will put more resources into this event than the RSM.  I think that I have a better chance because I have a better understanding of European Tour players and the outcome always seems to have a better result with marquee names doing ok.  The only problem, the games aren’t that big with big prizes and games worth playing, oh well.  The first choice by DraftKings is Rory McIlroy $11,800 and there is a great reason for that.  His last start he won in China and he has played well in this event with two wins and seven top-ten finishes, so yes even at the price you have to pick him.  Jon Rahm at $11,500 also presents a problem because he too has a great record at Jumeirah Golf Estates, plus he won in his last start at the Spanish Open a month ago.  I wish you could pick both but at the price it’s tough so you have to pick one or the other.  Tommy Fleetwood at $10,600 also presents a problem because he won last week in South Africa but he has a spotty record in Dubai so that makes the choice easy on him.  Now Patrick Reed at $10,400 is a different problem, he is playing ok and comes to a course that he has had some good success on so Reed is someone that you have to look over, but again the price is high.  Same with Justin Rose at $10,200, he has a good record at Jumeirah Golf Estates but I can’t see taking him this week.  Tyrrell Hatton at $10,000 is another tough decision, he won at his last start at the Turkish Airlines Open and has played well, plus his record is good in this event, so he is someone to think about.  Matthew Fitzpatrick at $9,800 is another to think about, his record is ok of late, not as good as the other players that we have talked about but still not bad and he won at Jumeirah in 2016 so that gives you something to think about.  Now many will think that Henrik Stenson at $9,400 is worth it due to his two wins in 2013 and ’14, but forget that his game is not close to that level and he is the first guy we can say to forget about.  The same with Louis Oosthuizen at $9,200, just don’t think he has it to win.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Now we have seen a lot of players that we can take but you can’t take many from this list.  So it’s best to find some really low price guys, or first from this price range.  The first person to be serious about is Bernd Wiesberger at $8,600.  Yes, he doesn’t have a great record on this course, but he was T-4th in 2016 so that tells us that he can do it.  He has had such a great summer I think he will play great this week as he protects his Race to Dubai title so take him.  Also like Sergio Garcia at $8,200, he seems to play well on this course but one warning he has never come close to winning, but he does make lots of birdies and his price is good.  Also, have to say that Danny Willett at $7,900 is a good price for the defending champion and gives you someone else at a good price.  Also, very surprised to see Matt Wallace go at $7,600, in his first visit to this event last year he was T-2nd, think he can do that again this year.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the DP World

In looking at some bargains, one has to be Lee Westwood at $7,500.  He won this ten years ago and yes he is old but can still play and can still finish in the top-ten plus make a lot of birdies.  Ian Poulter at $6,600 is worth the gamble considering that he has been runner-up on this course twice, yes he also hasn’t played that bad of late.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the DP World Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

In past DP World Championships, they have been dominated by six different players, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Charl Schwartzel, and Henrik Stenson.  All of them except Schwartzel is in the field and other than Westwood should be favorites.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:
  • Two essential elements come across in the previous ten winners.  First is driving distance, seven of the ten winners were in the top-ten while three (Jon Rahm 2017, Rory McIlroy 2015, and Alvaro Quiros in 2011) led while Rory McIlroy in 2012 was 2nd.  Hitting greens is also very important, last year winners Danny Willett was T-3rd, 2015 winner McIlroy was T-3rd while the previous year’s winner Henrik Stenson was T-4th and led that category in 2013 just like Lee Westwood in 2009.  In 2011 Alvaro Quiros was T2nd, so you have to hit the ball good and straight from tee to green.  In 2016 Matthew Fitzpatrick was T-21st in greens hit but was T-3rd in putts, in 2017 Jon Rahm was T-26th in greens hit and 2nd in putts.
  • All of the par-5s are easy, last year Danny Willett was 12 under, in 2017 Rahm was 8 under while Fitzpatrick was 12 under on them in 2016, best of anyone along with Willett in tournament history.  In 2015 McIlroy was 9 under on them and the year before Stenson played them in 10 under. Also, at 12 under was Alvaro Quiros in 2011 while the worst was Robert Karlsson in 2010 when he played them in 7 under
  • Surprisingly all the winners have played the par 4s well, last year Willett was 4 under, in 2017 Rahm was 12 under while in 2016 Fitzpatrick was 4 under on them.  In 2015 McIlroy was 10 under while the best was Henrik Stenson at 14 under in 2013. Lee Westwood played them in 13 under in 2009 while the worst was Robert Karlsson at 7 under in 2010.
  • There is zero chance of any rain in the next week, and the wind could present a problem with it blowing 15 mph each day, so players won’t’ be able to attack the course as they have done in past years.

Who to watch for at the DP World Championship, Dubai

Best Bets:

Rory McIlroy

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T20 T9 Win T2 T5 Win T11 5 3

Playing the best coming into this event, oh did I tell you he has the best record on this course. Yes he is the favorite to win.

Bernd Wiesberger

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T45 T4 T17 T16 T34 T42

A lot is a stake for him in keeping his lead in the Race to Dubai. He has played the best since the summer and he can win on this course and should do well this week.

Jon Rahm

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T4 Win

Another of those that plays well on this course.

Best of the rest:

Tommy Fleetwood

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T16 T21 T9 T53 T12 T37

Playing well, but the only problem he has never played well on this course.

Tyrrell Hatton

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T22 T8 2 T13 T6

He plays really well on this course.

Patrick Reed

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T2 T10 T10

Another one that knows how to play on this course and could surprise a lot of folks.

Sergio Garcia

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T9 T4 T19 T12 T9 T11 T21 T7

He seems to strike when you least expect him to.

Matt Wallace

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T2

Another of those that won’t be expected to do well, but remember this was T-2nd last year.

Solid contenders

Matthew Fitzpatrick

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T34 12 Win T4

He won here in 2016 and he could surprise us again.

Paul Casey

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
54 T16 T6

The type of guy that could surprise us this week.

Francesco Molinari

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T26 T17 T4 T4 T16 13 T34 T6 T6 T30

He has had a terrible year, could turn it all around with a win this week and set up 2020 in the right direction.

Justin Rose

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T4 T22 T2 T10 2 T50

He too has not been great in 2019 and would love to turn things around this week.

Danny Willett

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
Win T50 T4 T21 T26 T55 58

Surprised us all last year, could do the same this year.

Long shots that could come through:

Lee Westwood

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T20 T52 T13 T42 T47 T5 T48 T29 T3 Win

Won ten years ago and you never know when he can get things going again.

Ian Poulter

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T51 T31 T42 T21 2 T26 T22 2 T9

Has been runner-up twice in this event.

Andy Sullivan

2019 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07
T26 T48 T40 2 T21

He too was runner-up in 2015.

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