PGA National Key Fantasy Stats

Honda Classic

February 27th – March 1st, 2020

PGA National Champion Course

Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,125

Purse: $7 million

with $1,260,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Keith Mitchell

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for PGA National Champion Course, based on data from last year’s Honda Classic, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at PGA National in last year was 71.02, making it the 5th hardest course to score on in 2019.

This has been the norm for this course since it first held the event in 2007, it’s been one hardest course on the PGA Tour and has been in the top-ten hardest course list every year except for 2012 when it was the 11th hardest at 71.19 and in 2014 when it was the 17th hardest with a 70.41 scoring average. In 2018 it was the 2nd hardest course on tour with a 72.30 scoring average. One of the reasons the course plays so hard is the wind. Last year between Thursday and Saturday the winds blew between 5 to 12 mph and on Sunday it blew 12 to 20 mph. But in 2018 it blew each day up to 25 mph which played havoc for the players and protects the course to low scores. This year the winds will blow each day between 12 to 16 mph. The good news is it will rain on Wednesday so the course won’t be fast and dry on Thursday and Friday, but by the weekend and Sunday look for really tough conditions as the course gets firm and fast, scores will climb.

In looking at the stats for PGA National last year Greens hit, Rough Proximity to hole and Scambling are essential. Last year the course ranked 7th in greens hit with a 55.26 average. Winner Keith Mitchell was T-22nd in greens hit, but in 2016, winner Adam Scott was 1st in greens hit. Now hitting fairways isn’t that important, the course ranked 24th last year while Mitchell was T-54th in fairways hit (Mitchell was 8th in driving distance and was 12th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green). But the importance comes when you miss the fairways, the course has very tough Bermuda rough with perennial ryegrass and is some of the hardest to get out of. Last year the course ranked 6th in getting it close to the hole from the rough, while Mitchell had a tough time ranking 67th. Our third stat is scrambling last year PGA National was the 20th hardest on tour while Mitchell shined on this stat as he was T-2nd in scrambling.
Last we pick Par Breakers because in the past it’s hard to make a lot of birdies and eagles. Last year PGA National had 1,329 birdies and eagles for the week and averaged 16.86, the 5th hardest on tour. As for Mitchell last year he was T-12th in par breakers making 16 birdies for the week. So in looking at why Keith Mitchell won last year, he was 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 6th in Strokes Gained Around the Green and was 1st in Strokes Gained Total of all the categories.

Now in looking at our chart of all the players, remember that this week they are moving from the west coast to the east coast (via Mexico which the course had the characteristics of the West Coast swing ) with entirely different conditions and grasses. So even though some players didn’t do well in the last eight weeks, things will be entirely different in the next four weeks as players transition to Bermuda grass and more windy, with hotter temperatures.

So here are our four choices for the most critical stats for players to do well at PGA National:

*Greens in Regulation: Since the greens average 6,400 square feet normally they would be easy to hit. But since there is a lot of undulation, hitting it to the perfect place is important. Last year on the PGA Tour, the greens of PGA National were the 7th hardest to hit while in 2018 it was the 4th hardest to hit, while in 2017 they were the 15th hardest and in 2016 they were the 12th hardest to hit. This has been the norm for PGA National, in 2015 it ranked 6th, in 2014 it ranked 18th, but in 2013 5th, in 2012 11th and 6th in 2011. So a player that hits lots of greens will have an advantage.

*Rough Proximity: How close you can get the ball on the green when you’re in the rough off the tee, last year PGA National finished 6th while the year before it was 9th. In 2017 it was 8th and in 2016 it was 3rd in this stat.

*Scrambling: No matter how good your game is, missing greens always happens so it’s important to salvage par. Last year PGA National ranked 20th while last year it was the 8th hardest. In 2017 it was the 15th hardest while in 2016 it was 5th hardest in scrambling while in 2015 it was 7th hardest so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making a lot of birdies and eagles aren’t possible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course which ranked 5th last year and 2nd the year before. In 2017 it ranked T-18th, it was 8th in 2016 and 5th in this stat on tour in 2015.

125 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from this year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

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