BlogRBC Heritage Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So we are off and running.  One tournament under our belts with the Charles Schwab being played successfully.  Have to say we could get spoiled with all of these great players in one event, too bad that we can’t get more top players in contention.  Unfortunately, these first three events are being played on short courses in which players have to throttle back.  I would love to be a fly on the wall on what players like Rory, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, and even Justin Rose really feel like.  This isn’t a tournament they would normally play in because the course doesn’t suit there games, but still, it’s the best players in the world.

For fantasy golf junkies, it will be a moment we think if Bryson DeChambeau will be a good fit this week.  One of the big surprises at Colonial was when DeChambeau showed up gaining 20 pounds during the break and hitting the ball about 20 yards longer.  In watching his swing, he goes at it full bore, but the ball still seems to go fairly straight.  He hit drives at Colonial in places that shocked a lot of people, have to think that Ben Hogan was rolling in his grave with the understanding that Bryson was hitting the ball 20, 30 yards past fairway bunkers that have been placed for PGA Tour players.  Another shocking thing was some of the drives on doglegs, Bryson hit it over the trees and placed them past the doglegs in places that never saw drives before.  Starting with John Daly 30 years ago and then Tiger and then the whole PGA Tour we have seen drives that are now 50, 60 and even 75 yards longer than the drives Ben Hogan would hit  Right now with coronavirus taking over we haven’t heard much from the USGA and the R&A on long drives, frankly I like what I am seeing.

It makes the game fun, hey it’s a lot like 30 years ago when long-ball gained popularity in Baseball.  Let’s be realistic, people like to see players hit the ball long.  The reality of all this when they are playing well and there swings are well-timed it’s great.  But there will be a time when DeChambeau’s swing just won’t be right and God only knows where the ball will go.

Again the biggest decisions in making up our teams and placing bets are if DeChambeau will be able to rear back and smash his five and a half degree driver on holes at Harbour Town.  There are a lot more in the way of hazards so it will be interesting.

Things you need to know about the RBC Heritage

This will be the 52nd edition of the Heritage, which is now well-established thanks to the sponsorship deal with RBC eight years ago.  It was a long haul with a lot of apprehensive moments and rumors of its demise, but the tournament is now healthy again.

Harbour Town has been the site of the tournament every year.   In 1989 the Tour Championship was held at Hilton Head.

The first Heritage Classic was played to great fanfare in 1969 even though it was a “turkey” of an event.  Originally it was going to be a regular tournament on Hilton Head Island, giving away $45,000.  But Charles Price, founding editor of Golf Magazine, talked to a few people including Charles Fraser who owned the new course Harbour Town and suggested that instead of a small tournament he should apply for PGA Tour sanction.  They scrambled around and raised the purse to $100,000, then got a date for the tournament which was Thanksgiving weekend.  Jack Nicklaus, who helped Pete Dye design the course played and brought some friends including Arnold Palmer who went out and won the first Heritage Classic.  They say that thanks to Palmer winning, it put the tournament on the map and help create a beautiful tradition for a championship after its first year.

The Heritage Classic was played over Thanksgiving weekend in its first four years.  It was moved in 1974 to September and then the next year to March.  Between 1983 and last year it’s been played the week after the Masters, except for in 2012 when it was two weeks after the Masters.  This week will be a rarity with it in June, but we will see it return to its usual place after the Masters next year.

Course information:

• Harbour Town Golf Links
• Sea Pines Resort, Hilton Head Island, S.C.
• 7,099 yards     Par 36-35–71

Harbour Town Golf Links features a course rating of 75.6 and a slope rating from the back tees of 147. The tees, fairway, and rough are Celebration BermudaGrass as the greens are Tif-Eagle Bermuda.  The course is a resort course and can be played by the public.  Last year Harbour Town was the11th hardest course on the PGA Tour with a 71.17 average.  The year before it was the 19th hardest course with a 70.85 average.  In 2017 it was the 29th hardest course with a 70.68 average and in 2016 the 8th hardest course with a 72.29 average.  In 2015 it was 26th hardest course on the PGA Tour with 70.49 scoring average, about a half shot under par.  In 2014 Harbour Town was the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.038 average (full shot over par). In 2013 Harbour Town was the 11th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.038 average which is 1.038 strokes over par, so it all depends on how the weather will be if the course is tough or easy.

The course was designed and built by Pete Dye in 1969.  Jack Nicklaus got his start in golf course architecture as he assisted Dye in the design and building of Harbour Town.   The average green size at Harbour Town is 4,500 square feet, which means it has some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour.  The course has 145 bunkers and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes

Over the years the course has changed very little change, in 2011 seven new teeing grounds were put in with an added yardage of 127 yards for the 2012 event, taking the course over the 7,000 mark to 7,099.  The holes that yardage was added to were the 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 16 & 18.  In most cases, players didn’t use a driver, but holes like 16 with an additional 36 yards will now force players to hit a driver.  The same with 18, 20 yards has been added to a hole that will play to 472 yards.

There were also some changes in some of the bunkers so that they are more in play and the area around the second green got some work.  Also, some trees that played havoc to those who hit it in just off some of the fairways were removed which will help improve the sightlines.

Two last things, in the summer of 2015 every blade of grass on the layout had been replaced – tees, greens, rough, practice facility. The irrigation system also was replaced with the latest technology, so it may be a bit for the players to get the feel of the course and get to know all of the rolls and breaks on the greens.

Lastly in 2016 Hurricane Matthew hit Hilton Head Island and despite the power, other than debris and loss of trees there was no long-range damage.  We saw what mother-nature could do to a golf course when we see how heavy rains washed away the courses at Greenbrier and they couldn’t play the Greenbrier Classic.  The same at Houston, rain from a Hurricane put the Golf Club of Houston underwater, but it was back to normal when the Houston Open was played.  For Hilton Head they were lucky, yes players today will notice a lack of trees, especially on holes near the bay like 16, 17 and 18.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing in Harbour Town.

This is based on the most important stats for Harbour Town, based on data from last year’s RBC Heritage, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at Harbour Town last year was 71.17 which ranked the 11th hardest course of the year. It was a half a shot tougher than in 2018 when he played to a 70.85 average. The reason for the change was wind, each day last year had winds over 10 mph, and on Friday they had gusts up to 40 mph and Saturday 30 mph. The good news for next week, in looking at the early weather reports it will be warm but dry and winds each day under 10 mph.

In looking through the history of the event every year the course average has always been over par, in the last 20 years the hardest it’s played was in 2005 at a 73.25 average. The easiest was in 2017 when it played to a 70.68 average and ranked 28th hardest on the PGA Tour.
Despite the course being one of the best on the PGA Tour, the winners haven’t been top-notch. Last year C.T. Pan won and since the victory he has only finished in the top-ten once, a T-3rd a month after winning at the Charles Schwab. Pan enters this week with very little momentum missing his last four cuts. In 2018 Satoshi Kodaira won and he also has struggled, in 45 PGA Tour events since he has only two top-ten finishes the best coming a month after his Heritage win, T-20th at the Charles Schwab. Just like Pan, Kodaira comes into this week with mon momentum missing the cut in his last five events. The same with 2017 winner Wesley Bryan, since winning he has played in 42 events and has only had two top-25 finished, the best a T-3rd in the 2017 John Deere Classic. To be fair to Bryan, at the end of 2018 he hurt himself and found out he had a torn labrum in his left shoulder, and at the end of January of 2019 had surgery which took a year to get better. This week will be his first PGA Tour event since the RSM Classic in November of 2018. The fact is winning the RBC Heritage has not been any kind of a launching pad to stardom on the PGA Tour. Not only has Pan, Kodaira, or Bryan return to the winner’s circle, 2016 winner Branden Grace and 2015 Jim Furyk have not won on the PGA Tour (Grace has won twice on European Tour, the last being the 2020 South African Open). So the last Heritage champion to win again on the PGA Tour is Matt Kuchar in 2014. One thing that is a fact for this event, with better scoring conditions the course tends to get an inexperience winner as we have seen.

So what will it take to win this week? Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America, it’s a totally different experience in which ball placement is upmost overpower. Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue so look for a precision player to win. Looking at all drives in 2019 the course averaged 281.8 yards, meaning it was the 8th shortest of all the courses on tour. Since it’s so low (The highest on tour last year was Club de Golf Chapultepec, 320.6 yards) players not only throttle it down, on many holes they lay up with 3 woods or long irons. So our first important stat is driving accuracy, you have to drive it well and straight at Harbour Town. Last year the course ranked 21st (60.20%) in this stat compared to the others on tour. In looking at past champions seven of the last eleven were in the top-ten in accuracy for the week and ten of the last ten champions were in the bottom in driving distance as Carl Pettersson was the longest driver as he ranked 31st in 2012. Last year’s champion C.T. Pan hit 29 of 54 fairways which were the worst a champion has done ever done since 1997. The year before Satoshi Kodaira hit 42 of 56 and ranked T-4th.

For our next categories in looking at the stats for Harbour Town, one thing is obvious, the course caters to those that hit lots of greens, last year and in 2018 it ranked 6th on tour. 2017 was a misnomer as it ranked 16th, while in 2016 it ranked 2nd on the Tour and it was in the top-6 in five of the last seven years. In the last 23 years, 12 of the champions ranked in the top-ten with five of them leading the category, the last being Matt Kuchar in 2014. Last year’s winner C.T. Pan ranked 37th hitting 42 of 72 greens while in 2018 Satoshi Kodaira ranked T-7th, so on the whole hitting greens is important to winning at Harbour Town.

Next important is around and on the greens. What makes Harbour Town tough is the greens, at 4,500 square feet they are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour to hit, so it makes sense that scramblers do well since the course ranked 42nd last year (62.99, 8th best on tour) and 45th in 2018. It was 46th in 2017, 26th in 2016, and 49th best in 2015 which in this case meant that the average player got it up and down 64.68% of the time, only three courses saw averages higher so you have to scramble well to exist. Last year’s winner C.T. Pan ranked T-16th while 2018 champion Satoshi Kodaira was T-13th mostly because he hit a lot of greens.
Last we pick a stat rarely used, strokes gained putting. That’s because at Hilton Head putting well doesn’t mean much, but you still have to make those nasty 4 to 8 footers. Last year in this stat Pan ranked 5th while in 2018 Kodaira ranked T-13th.

So as you can see the secret for Harbour Town is not brute force, but finesse and total control over your game. When you look at the champions at this course, every one of them is ranked in the bottom of driving distance and the longest is Davis Love III who won last in 2003. So think of it, every champion since has not hit it long, something that you won’t see at any other event on the PGA Tour. So the thought for the week is to hit it short and straight.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of fairways hit, last year Heritage finished 21st in this stat, 24th in 2018, 21st in 2017, 18th in 2016 and was 36th in 2015.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is a great barometer on how good players manage their games around Harbour Town, last year Harbour Town ranked 6th in this stat last year and in 2018. Every year the players that hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Strokes Gained Putting: Who gains the most strokes with their putter, since Harbour Town’s greens are so small you will see fewer putts as you won’t have as many three-putts but you still need to make those putts under ten feet.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2020 with 141 of the 156 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to the other 130 stats for players in the RBC Heritage

DraftKings tips

Of the 153 in the field, 118 have played at least once at Harbour Town in the RBC Heritage since 2015:

• Matt Kuchar is 42 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Luke Donald is 30 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Ian Poulter is 26 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Branden Grace is 25 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Kevin Kisner is 25 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Russell Knox is 24 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• C.T. Pan is 20 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Kevin Streelman is 20 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Troy Merritt is 20 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Webb Simpson is 18 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Bud Cauley is 17 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Scott Piercy is 17 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Wesley Bryan is 16 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Brandt Snedeker is 15 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Cameron Smith is 15 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Jason Kokrak is 15 under in 16 rounds, playing 5 years
• J.J. Spaun is 13 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Jim Furyk is 12 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Louis Oosthuizen is 12 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Shane Lowry is 12 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Bo Van Pelt is 11 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Bryson DeChambeau is 11 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Dustin Johnson is 11 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 year

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Scott Piercy is 17 under playing 2 years (-8.5)
• Matt Kuchar is 42 under playing 5 years (-8.4)
• Wesley Bryan is 16 under playing 2 years (-8.0)
• C.T. Pan is 20 under playing 3 years (-6.7)
• Kevin Streelman is 20 under playing 3 years (-6.7)
• Troy Merritt is 20 under playing 3 years (-6.7)
• Branden Grace is 25 under playing 4 years (-6.3)
• Luke Donald is 30 under playing 5 years (-6.0)
• Shane Lowry is 12 under playing 2 years (-6.0)
• Bud Cauley is 17 under playing 3 years (-5.7)
• Dustin Johnson is 11 under playing 2 years (-5.5)
• Ian Poulter is 26 under playing 5 years (-5.2)
• Kevin Kisner is 25 under playing 5 years (-5.0)
• Emiliano Grillo is 10 under playing 2 years (-5.0)
• Russell Knox is 24 under playing 5 years (-4.8)
• J.J. Spaun is 13 under playing 3 years (-4.3)
• Jordan Spieth is 8 under playing 2 years (-4.0)
• Ryan Moore is 8 under playing 2 years (-4.0)
• Cameron Smith is 15 under playing 4 years (-3.8)
• Webb Simpson is 18 under playing 5 years (-3.6)
• Brice Garnett is 10 under playing 3 years (-3.3)
• Brandt Snedeker is 15 under playing 5 years (-3.0)
• Jason Kokrak is 15 under playing 5 years (-3.0)
• Jim Furyk is 12 under playing 4 years (-3.0)
• Si Woo Kim is 9 under playing 3 years (-3.0)
• Andrew Landry is 6 under playing 2 years (-3.0)
• Brendon Todd is 6 under playing 2 years (-3.0)
• Denny McCarthy is 3 under playing 1 years (-3.0)
• Bryson DeChambeau is 11 under playing 4 years (-2.8)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,300
• Justin Thomas – $10,900
• Bryson DeChambeau – $10,700
• Jon Rahm – $10,500
• Xander Schauffele – $10,200
• Collin Morikawa – $10,000
• Sungjae Im – $9,700
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,500
• Justin Rose – $9,200
• Webb Simpson – $9,000

So the big problem here is the cost of Rory McIlroy, boy $11,300 is a king ransom for a player who has never played this course, a type of layout that doesn’t suit his game.  Yes, he is the number one player in the world, but not on this course.  Justin Thomas is $10,900 and again you have to ask that magical question could Harbour Town be much for him.  One thing to remember Thomas did play the Heritage in 2015 and finish T-11th and he is 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green and 12th in Greens in Regulation.  I call this a toss-up, not because of Thomas but the high price.  Bryson DeChambeau is $10,700 and again I worry about him.  His new body has given him an extra 20 yards, but you really don’t need the extra yardage off the tee.  Again I call him another toss-up pick but he has been Jeckell and Hyde at Harbour Town, T-3rd in 2018, T-4th in 2016 but missed cuts in 2019 &’17.  Jon Rahm at $10,500 is another tough choice, he missed the cut last week at Colonial and again I worry that this course could be too hard for him. You are probably wondering if I am crazy, not recommending anyone, but I really feel there are better, cheaper alternatives   With Xander Schauffele at $10,200 we see our first good choice.  Yes, his record in two starts isn’t great but he is great from tee to green, ranks 4th in Greens in Regulation this year and with him playing well could continue the good play this week.  Collin Morikawa at $10,000 is another good choice, he played great at Colonial the first time he has ever played the course and should do well the first time he plays Harbour Town.  This kid has been solid since joining the Tour last year, in 22 PGA Tour events he has played every round and hasn’t missed a cut yet.  Sungjae Im is $9,700 and worth the money, yes he missed the cut last year at Harbour Town but comes into this week on a roll. Hideki Matsuyama is $9,500 and just like Im you have to forget that in his only start in 2014 he missed the cut.  Matsuyama was playing well before the break and I don’t think he will win, but can give you a top-ten.  Justin Rose is $9,200 and I really like him a lot.  He worked hard on his game during the break, went back to his old clubs, and played great at Colonial.  Yes, Rose hasn’t played at Harbour Town since 2008, but he was T-7th in 2004 and this course is a lot like Merion which he won the U.S. Open on.  Last we have Webb Simpson at $9,000, now last week about this time I felt he had a great shot at winning Colonial and looked what happened, he missed the cut.  In the same position this week, I think he will do great.  Has played well Harbour Town, was runner-up in 2013 and T-5th in 2018, T-16th last year and he drives it straight, hits lots of greens, scramblers well and makes lots of birdies.  Again he will play well this week.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Lot’s of players at great prices in this range.  Off the bat we have Daniel Berger at $8,900, normally I would say he is a great choice, but I am going to pass on him just because he won and has too much on his plate this week.  Patrick Reed is $8,800 and again on paper seems good, but he has been terrible on this course in three tries so take a pass.  I do like Jordan Spieth at $8,700, his game seems to be coming around, was T-10th last week at Charles Schwab despite 71 in the final round.  At RBC Heritage was T-9th in 2013, T-12th in 2014 and T-11th in 2015 so it gives us an air of confidence with him.  The bottom line, if he hits the ball just ok but can putt well, he can win.  Now we go through a stretch of guys that seem to be low price, but I just don’t think they are ok for Harbour Town.  Brooks Koepka is $8,600, Dustin Johnson is $8,500 and Gary Woodland is $8,400.  Again all are good players but playing a course that just doesn’t suit them so save your money.  Matt Kuchar is at $8,300 and despite missing the cut last week I think he will be good this week.  He has a great record at Heritage and I think he will continue to play well this week.  Abraham Ancer is at $8,000 and despite missing the cut the only time he played in this event, he has had a great year and should be considered.  Same with Tyrrell Hatton at $8,000.  The price is right and even though he hasn’t played well in two tries at Harbour Town, it should be ok this week.  Shane Lowry is at $7,800 and worth the price, he was T-3rd last year.  Also, like Branden Grace at $7,800 he won this event in 2016 and has struggled on the PGA Tour since, but played well at Colonial and is worth the price.  Kevin Kisner is $7,700 and he has played well at Hilton Head.  On top of that was T-29th at Charles Schwab as he shot four-under-par rounds, was T-4th at Sony Open in Hawaii.  Ian Poulter at $7,600 is another good choice just for the fact that he has played great last three years at Harbour Town, T-11th in 2017, T-7th in 2018, and T-10th last year.  Was T-29th at Colonial so yes worth the price.  The last pick is J.T. Poston at $7,500, with final rounds of 67-66 finished T-6th at RBC Heritage last year.  The reason I like him, he is good on courses that reward good shotmaking, Poston won at Wyndham last year and was T-10th last week at Charles Schwab.

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Off the bat I have a winner, Luke List at $7,200 won on the Korn Ferry last week and was T-3rd at Harbour Town in 2018.  Rory Sabbatini is $7,200 and has a solid record at Harbour Town and played well last week finishing T-14th at Charles Schwab.  Last week I picked Jim Furyk and he played well at Colonial.  This week Furyk is $7,100 and another great pick with a terrific record at Harbour Town.  When you talk about great records at Harbour Town, you have to take Luke Donald at $7,000 just for the fact that he has been runner-up five times, 3rd twice, and was T-33rd last year.  Let’s talk about some “cheap” fliers, try Victor Perez at $6,500.  Yes, he has never played before at Harbour Town, yes he missed the cut last week at Colonial but like how he was playing before the break and gosh he is cheap.  Last we have Denny McCarthy at $6,200.  He was T-33rd last year and is the best putter on the PGA Tour, but from tee to green he is a disaster but if he can put it together one week could do well with the putter.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Heritage:

The key stat for the winner:

• Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America; it’s a different experience in which ball placement is utmost over power.  Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue so look for a precision player to win. So what will it take to win this week’s Heritage Classic?
• What makes the course tough is the greens, at 4,500 square feet they are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour.  Over the last 14 years, they have been difficult to hit, of all the tournaments the U.S. Open is the only one that ranks harder to hit than the greens of Hilton Head.
• Over the years putting and hitting greens have been vital to winning at Harbour Town.  If you look at the list of Heritage champions all of them are good putters, especially from the ten to twenty feet range.
• With greens as small as those at Hilton Head scrambling is an essential element in being able to win.  Remember this, only seven courses last year on the PGA were tougher to scramble on than Harbour Town in which only 62.99% of the players got it up and down.  Look at the recent winners to see how important this stat is. Last year C.T. Pan missed 30 greens but got it up and down on 22 of these greens in his winning effort.  The year before Satoshi Kodaira missed 23 greens but got it up and down 17 times and was T-13th in scrambling.  In 2017, Wesley Bryan missed 32 greens but got it up and down 27 times to lead the field in scrambling.  In 2016 Branden Grace was 22 of 28 greens missed, he was 3rd in scrambling, in 2015 Jim Furyk led the stat getting it up and down 21 of the 22 greens he missed, the best in championship history.  The year before Matt Kuchar was 12th in that stat on the PGA Tour in 2014. The 2013 winner Graeme McDowell led the scrambling list at Harbour Town getting it up and down 79.2% of the time.  In 2012 Carl Pettersson was 21st, and Brandt Snedeker did an excellent job at 20th. But in the years before it was even better as in 2010, Jim Furyk was 4th in this category, getting it up and down 23 of 28 times.  In 2009 Brian Gay was first in this category, getting it up and down 22 of 24 tries.  In 2007 Boo Weekley only took 97 putts and won the category, Aaron Baddeley was 7th in his win in 2006, Davis Love III was 3rd in his 2003 victory, Justin Leonard was 7th in his 2002 win, Jose Coceres was 5th in 2001 and Nick Price was 3rd in 1997.
• Heritage always seems to have dramatic finishes.  In the last 16 of the 21 Heritage’s, eight of them have had playoffs, six have had a one-stroke margin of victory while the other was two and five.  Last year C.T. Pan won by a shot over Matt Kuchar.  In 2018 Satoshi Kodaira beat SiWoo Kim in a playoff, in 2017 Wesley Bryan beat Luke Donald by a shot while the year before Branden Grace was the exception to the rule beating Luke Donald and Russell Knox by two shots.  The previous year Jim Furyk beat Kevin Kisner in a playoff while in 2014 Matt Kuchar defeated Luke Donald by a shot, thanks to a Kuchar birdie on the 72nd hole. In 2013 Graeme McDowell won in a playoff with Webb Simpson while in 2012 Carl Pettersson had an easy time winning by five.  In 2011 Snedeker went three extra holes before beating Luke Donald.   Can’t get any more exciting than in 2007 when Boo Weekley beat Ernie Els by a shot, but he chipped in on 17 and 18 for the win.  In 2010 Jim Furyk beat Brian Davis in a playoff.  So you just have to think things will be close at the end on Sunday.
• Weather was great last week at Colonial, look for more of the same this week as each day will be warm, sunny with mild wins so great scoring weather.