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BlogRBC Heritage Preview and Picks

RBC Heritage

June 18th – 21st, 2020

Harbour Town G.L.

Hilton Head, SC

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,009

Purse: $7.1 million

with $1,278,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
C.T. Pan

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 66 of the top-100 and 38 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with eight players from the top-ten, #1 Rory McIlroy, #2 Jon Rahm, #3 Justin Thomas, #4 Brooks Koepka, #5 Dustin Johnson, #6 Patrick Reed, #9 Webb Simpson and #10 Xander Schauffele.  Here are the other top-50 players: #12 Bryson DeChambeau, #14 Justin Rose, #16 Tony Finau, #17 Gary Woodland, #18 Matt Kuchar, #19 Louis Oosthuizen, #20 Tyrrell Hatton, #21 Sungjae Im, #22 Shane Lowry, #23 Hideki Matsuyama, #25 Matthew Fitzpatrick, #27 Collin Morikawa, #29 Rickie Fowler, #30 Abraham Ancer, #31 Daniel Berger, #35 Danny Willett, #36 Billy Horschel, #37 Kevin Kisner, #38 Cameron Smith, #39 Chez Reavie, #40 Sergio Garcia, #41 Victor Perez, #43 Jazz Janewattananond, #44 Erik van Rooyen, #45 Bubba Watson, #46 Matt Wallace, #47 Rafa Cabrera Bello, #48 Christiaan Bezuidenhout, #49 Graeme McDowell and #50 Scottie Scheffler.

Last year there were 24 top-fifty players.

The field includes 21 of the top 25 on the FedEx point standings for 2020.  Those players are  #1 Sungjae Im, # 2 Justin Thomas, # 3 Rory McIlroy, #4 Patrick Reed, #5 Brendon Todd, #6 Webb Simpson, #8 Lanto Griffin, #9 Sebastian Munoz, #10 Xander Schauffele, #11 Daniel Berger, #12 Hideki Matsuyama, #13 Bryson DeChambeau, #15 Cameron Smith, #17 Tyrrell Hatton, #18 Colin Morikawa, #19 Joaquin Niemann, #20 Scottie Scheffler, #21 Nick Taylor, #23 Abraham Ancer, #42 Jon Rahm, and #25 Tom Hoge.

The top 25 players not in the field are: #7 Marc Leishman, #14 Kevin Na, #16 Cameron Champ, and #22 Adam Scott.

The field includes 13 past champions: C.T. Pan (2019), Wesley Bryan (2017), Branden Grace (2016), Jim Furyk (2015 & ’10), Matt Kuchar (2014), Graeme McDowell (2013), Brandt Snedeker (2011), Brian Gay (2009), Aaron Baddeley (2006), Stewart Cink (2004 & ’00), Davis Love III (2003, 1998, ’92 & ’91), Glen Day (1999) and Bernard Langer (1985).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the RBC Heritage field is our performance chart listed by the average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the RBC Heritage in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the RBC Heritage.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the RBC Heritage

Player Charles Schwab Arnold Palmer The Honda Classic WGC Mexico Puerto Rico Open Genesis Open AT&T Pebble Beach Phoenix Open Saudi International Farmers Insurance Open Dubai Desert Classic American Express Abu Dhabi
Daniel Berger
(204 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP DNP DNP T5
(23.33)
T9
(15)
DNP DNP DNP T29
(7)
DNP
Bryson DeChambeau
(203.33 pts)
T3
(90)
4
(26.67)
DNP 2
(50)
DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP T52
(0)
DNP DNP T8
(16.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Patrick Reed
(149.33 pts)
T7
(55)
T15
(11.67)
DNP Win
(66)
DNP T51
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T6
(20)
DNP DNP DNP
Collin Morikawa
(145 pts)
2
(100)
T9
(15)
DNP T42
(4)
DNP T26
(8)
DNP T25
(8.33)
DNP T21
(9.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Sungjae Im
(144.5 pts)
T10
(40)
3
(30)
Win
(44)
T29
(10.5)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP T36
(4.67)
DNP T10
(13.33)
DNP
Xander Schauffele
(133.67 pts)
T3
(90)
T24
(8.67)
DNP T14
(18)
DNP T23
(9)
DNP T16
(11.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Rory McIlroy
(129.67 pts)
T32
(18)
T5
(23.33)
DNP 5
(35)
DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP DNP DNP T3
(30)
DNP DNP DNP
Bubba Watson
(114.33 pts)
T7
(55)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T18
(16)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T3
(30)
DNP T6
(20)
DNP DNP DNP
Abraham Ancer
(110.67 pts)
T14
(36)
T56
(0)
DNP T12
(19)
DNP T43
(2.33)
DNP DNP T6
(20)
DNP DNP 2
(33.33)
DNP
Jason Kokrak
(100.33 pts)
T3
(90)
T18
(10.67)
DNP T51
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T21
(9.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Justin Thomas
(96.67 pts)
T10
(40)
DNP DNP T6
(30)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T3
(30)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Jon Rahm
(94.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T3
(45)
DNP T17
(11)
DNP T9
(15)
DNP 2
(33.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Patrick Rodgers
(89 pts)
T14
(36)
T24
(8.67)
T21
(9.67)
DNP T35
(5)
T30
(6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T16
(11.33)
DNP T9
(15)
DNP T64
(0)
DNP
Tony Finau
(89 pts)
T23
(27)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP T51
(0)
DNP 2
(33.33)
DNP T6
(20)
DNP T14
(12)
DNP
Joel Dahmen
(88 pts)
T19
(31)
T5
(23.33)
DNP DNP DNP T5
(23.33)
T14
(12)
WD
(-1.67)
DNP T55
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Matthew Fitzpatrick
(81.17 pts)
T32
(18)
T9
(15)
DNP T37
(6.5)
DNP T30
(6.67)
T60
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T45
(1.67)
DNP T2
(33.33)
Gary Woodland
(80.67 pts)
9
(45)
DNP T8
(16.67)
T12
(19)
DNP DNP DNP T40
(3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Justin Rose
(80 pts)
T3
(90)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T56
(0)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Viktor Hovland
(76.67 pts)
T23
(27)
T42
(2.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP Win
(44)
DNP T38
(4)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T23
(9)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Maverick McNealy
(74.67 pts)
T32
(18)
CUT
(-3.33)
T11
(13)
DNP T27
(7.67)
DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP DNP 15
(11.67)
DNP T37
(4.33)
DNP
Tyrrell Hatton
(74 pts)
DNP Win
(44)
DNP T6
(30)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Max Homa
(69.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T24
(8.67)
DNP DNP DNP T5
(23.33)
T14
(12)
T6
(20)
DNP T9
(15)
DNP T48
(0.67)
DNP
Hideki Matsuyama
(66.33 pts)
DNP T56
(0)
DNP T6
(30)
DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP T16
(11.33)
DNP T45
(1.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Bud Cauley
(61.33 pts)
T29
(21)
T32
(6)
T42
(2.67)
DNP DNP T51
(0)
DNP T25
(8.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP
Rafael Cabrera-Bello
(57.67 pts)
T23
(27)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T16
(17)
DNP T17
(11)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T56
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T12
(12.67)
J.T. Poston
(57 pts)
T10
(40)
CUT
(-3.33)
T35
(5)
DNP DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP T37
(4.33)
DNP DNP DNP T37
(4.33)
DNP
Branden Grace
(54.33 pts)
T19
(31)
DNP DNP T42
(4)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T9
(15)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T17
(11)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
(54.17 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T18
(10.67)
DNP T29
(10.5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T21
(9.67)
DNP 2
(33.33)
DNP T59
(0)
Scottie Scheffler
(53.67 pts)
T55
(0)
T15
(11.67)
DNP T26
(12)
DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP 3
(30)
DNP
Ian Poulter
(53.67 pts)
T29
(21)
T32
(6)
T27
(7.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T17
(11)
DNP T16
(11.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Billy Horschel
(53.5 pts)
T38
(12)
T36
(4.67)
T42
(2.67)
T9
(22.5)
DNP DNP DNP T9
(15)
DNP T68
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Matt Kuchar
(52.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T22
(14)
DNP T2
(33.33)
T38
(4)
T16
(11.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Talor Gooch
(52.33 pts)
T43
(7)
T13
(12.33)
T38
(4)
DNP DNP T10
(13.33)
DNP T61
(0)
DNP T36
(4.67)
DNP T17
(11)
DNP
Matthew NeSmith
(52.33 pts)
T49
(1)
CUT
(-3.33)
T38
(4)
DNP T6
(20)
DNP T11
(13)
DNP DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP T17
(11)
DNP
Jordan Spieth
(51.67 pts)
T10
(40)
DNP DNP T58
(0)
DNP T59
(0)
T9
(15)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T55
(0)
DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the RBC Heritage

Player Charles Schwab Arnold Palmer The Honda Classic WGC Mexico Puerto Rico Open Genesis Open AT&T Pebble Beach Phoenix Open Saudi International Farmers Insurance Open Dubai Desert Classic American Express Abu Dhabi
Jim Herman
(-23.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T55
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
C.T. Pan
(-23.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T63
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Si Woo Kim
(-20.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T37
(4.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP
Chris Stroud
(-20 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Brian Gay
(-19.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T62
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T38
(4)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Martin Trainer
(-19 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T47
(1)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Roger Sloan
(-16.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T60
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Ryan Armour
(-16.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Jazz Janewattananond
(-16.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T53
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T56
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Patton Kizzire
(-16.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP 68
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T61
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

So we are off and running.  One tournament under our belts with the Charles Schwab being played successfully.  Have to say we could get spoiled with all of these great players in one event, too bad that we can’t get more top players in contention.  Unfortunately, these first three events are being played on short courses in which players have to throttle back.  I would love to be a fly on the wall on what players like Rory, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, and even Justin Rose really feel like.  This isn’t a tournament they would normally play in because the course doesn’t suit there games, but still, it’s the best players in the world.

For fantasy golf junkies, it will be a moment we think if Bryson DeChambeau will be a good fit this week.  One of the big surprises at Colonial was when DeChambeau showed up gaining 20 pounds during the break and hitting the ball about 20 yards longer.  In watching his swing, he goes at it full bore, but the ball still seems to go fairly straight.  He hit drives at Colonial in places that shocked a lot of people, have to think that Ben Hogan was rolling in his grave with the understanding that Bryson was hitting the ball 20, 30 yards past fairway bunkers that have been placed for PGA Tour players.  Another shocking thing was some of the drives on doglegs, Bryson hit it over the trees and placed them past the doglegs in places that never saw drives before.  Starting with John Daly 30 years ago and then Tiger and then the whole PGA Tour we have seen drives that are now 50, 60 and even 75 yards longer than the drives Ben Hogan would hit  Right now with coronavirus taking over we haven’t heard much from the USGA and the R&A on long drives, frankly I like what I am seeing.

It makes the game fun, hey it’s a lot like 30 years ago when long-ball gained popularity in Baseball.  Let’s be realistic, people like to see players hit the ball long.  The reality of all this when they are playing well and there swings are well-timed it’s great.  But there will be a time when DeChambeau’s swing just won’t be right and God only knows where the ball will go.

Again the biggest decisions in making up our teams and placing bets are if DeChambeau will be able to rear back and smash his five and a half degree driver on holes at Harbour Town.  There are a lot more in the way of hazards so it will be interesting.

Things you need to know about the RBC Heritage

This will be the 52nd edition of the Heritage, which is now well-established thanks to the sponsorship deal with RBC eight years ago.  It was a long haul with a lot of apprehensive moments and rumors of its demise, but the tournament is now healthy again.

Harbour Town has been the site of the tournament every year.   In 1989 the Tour Championship was held at Hilton Head.

The first Heritage Classic was played to great fanfare in 1969 even though it was a “turkey” of an event.  Originally it was going to be a regular tournament on Hilton Head Island, giving away $45,000.  But Charles Price, founding editor of Golf Magazine, talked to a few people including Charles Fraser who owned the new course Harbour Town and suggested that instead of a small tournament he should apply for PGA Tour sanction.  They scrambled around and raised the purse to $100,000, then got a date for the tournament which was Thanksgiving weekend.  Jack Nicklaus, who helped Pete Dye design the course played and brought some friends including Arnold Palmer who went out and won the first Heritage Classic.  They say that thanks to Palmer winning, it put the tournament on the map and help create a beautiful tradition for a championship after its first year.

The Heritage Classic was played over Thanksgiving weekend in its first four years.  It was moved in 1974 to September and then the next year to March.  Between 1983 and last year it’s been played the week after the Masters, except for in 2012 when it was two weeks after the Masters.  This week will be a rarity with it in June, but we will see it return to its usual place after the Masters next year.

Course information:
  • Harbour Town Golf Links
  • Sea Pines Resort, Hilton Head Island, S.C.
  • 7,099 yards     Par 36-35–71

Harbour Town Golf Links features a course rating of 75.6 and a slope rating from the back tees of 147. The tees, fairway, and rough are Celebration BermudaGrass as the greens are Tif-Eagle Bermuda.  The course is a resort course and can be played by the public.  Last year Harbour Town was the11th hardest course on the PGA Tour with a 71.17 average.  The year before it was the 19th hardest course with a 70.85 average.  In 2017 it was the 29th hardest course with a 70.68 average and in 2016 the 8th hardest course with a 72.29 average.  In 2015 it was 26th hardest course on the PGA Tour with 70.49 scoring average, about a half shot under par.  In 2014 Harbour Town was the 9th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.038 average (full shot over par). In 2013 Harbour Town was the 11th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.038 average which is 1.038 strokes over par, so it all depends on how the weather will be if the course is tough or easy.

The course was designed and built by Pete Dye in 1969.  Jack Nicklaus got his start in golf course architecture as he assisted Dye in the design and building of Harbour Town.   The average green size at Harbour Town is 4,500 square feet, which means it has some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour.  The course has 145 bunkers and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes

Over the years the course has changed very little change, in 2011 seven new teeing grounds were put in with an added yardage of 127 yards for the 2012 event, taking the course over the 7,000 mark to 7,099.  The holes that yardage was added to were the 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 16 & 18.  In most cases, players didn’t use a driver, but holes like 16 with an additional 36 yards will now force players to hit a driver.  The same with 18, 20 yards has been added to a hole that will play to 472 yards.

There were also some changes in some of the bunkers so that they are more in play and the area around the second green got some work.  Also, some trees that played havoc to those who hit it in just off some of the fairways were removed which will help improve the sightlines.

Two last things, in the summer of 2015 every blade of grass on the layout had been replaced – tees, greens, rough, practice facility. The irrigation system also was replaced with the latest technology, so it may be a bit for the players to get the feel of the course and get to know all of the rolls and breaks on the greens.

Lastly in 2016 Hurricane Matthew hit Hilton Head Island and despite the power, other than debris and loss of trees there was no long-range damage.  We saw what mother-nature could do to a golf course when we see how heavy rains washed away the courses at Greenbrier and they couldn’t play the Greenbrier Classic.  The same at Houston, rain from a Hurricane put the Golf Club of Houston underwater, but it was back to normal when the Houston Open was played.  For Hilton Head they were lucky, yes players today will notice a lack of trees, especially on holes near the bay like 16, 17 and 18.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing in Harbour Town.

This is based on the most important stats for Harbour Town, based on data from last year’s RBC Heritage, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four categories.
The scoring average of the field at Harbour Town last year was 71.17 which ranked the 11th hardest course of the year. It was a half a shot tougher than in 2018 when he played to a 70.85 average. The reason for the change was wind, each day last year had winds over 10 mph, and on Friday they had gusts up to 40 mph and Saturday 30 mph. The good news for next week, in looking at the early weather reports it will be warm but dry and winds each day under 10 mph.

In looking through the history of the event every year the course average has always been over par, in the last 20 years the hardest it’s played was in 2005 at a 73.25 average. The easiest was in 2017 when it played to a 70.68 average and ranked 28th hardest on the PGA Tour.
Despite the course being one of the best on the PGA Tour, the winners haven’t been top-notch. Last year C.T. Pan won and since the victory he has only finished in the top-ten once, a T-3rd a month after winning at the Charles Schwab. Pan enters this week with very little momentum missing his last four cuts. In 2018 Satoshi Kodaira won and he also has struggled, in 45 PGA Tour events since he has only two top-ten finishes the best coming a month after his Heritage win, T-20th at the Charles Schwab. Just like Pan, Kodaira comes into this week with mon momentum missing the cut in his last five events. The same with 2017 winner Wesley Bryan, since winning he has played in 42 events and has only had two top-25 finished, the best a T-3rd in the 2017 John Deere Classic. To be fair to Bryan, at the end of 2018 he hurt himself and found out he had a torn labrum in his left shoulder, and at the end of January of 2019 had surgery which took a year to get better. This week will be his first PGA Tour event since the RSM Classic in November of 2018. The fact is winning the RBC Heritage has not been any kind of a launching pad to stardom on the PGA Tour. Not only has Pan, Kodaira, or Bryan return to the winner’s circle, 2016 winner Branden Grace and 2015 Jim Furyk have not won on the PGA Tour (Grace has won twice on European Tour, the last being the 2020 South African Open). So the last Heritage champion to win again on the PGA Tour is Matt Kuchar in 2014. One thing that is a fact for this event, with better scoring conditions the course tends to get an inexperience winner as we have seen.

So what will it take to win this week? Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America, it’s a totally different experience in which ball placement is upmost overpower. Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue so look for a precision player to win. Looking at all drives in 2019 the course averaged 281.8 yards, meaning it was the 8th shortest of all the courses on tour. Since it’s so low (The highest on tour last year was Club de Golf Chapultepec, 320.6 yards) players not only throttle it down, on many holes they lay up with 3 woods or long irons. So our first important stat is driving accuracy, you have to drive it well and straight at Harbour Town. Last year the course ranked 21st (60.20%) in this stat compared to the others on tour. In looking at past champions seven of the last eleven were in the top-ten in accuracy for the week and ten of the last ten champions were in the bottom in driving distance as Carl Pettersson was the longest driver as he ranked 31st in 2012. Last year’s champion C.T. Pan hit 29 of 54 fairways which were the worst a champion has done ever done since 1997. The year before Satoshi Kodaira hit 42 of 56 and ranked T-4th.

For our next categories in looking at the stats for Harbour Town, one thing is obvious, the course caters to those that hit lots of greens, last year and in 2018 it ranked 6th on tour. 2017 was a misnomer as it ranked 16th, while in 2016 it ranked 2nd on the Tour and it was in the top-6 in five of the last seven years. In the last 23 years, 12 of the champions ranked in the top-ten with five of them leading the category, the last being Matt Kuchar in 2014. Last year’s winner C.T. Pan ranked 37th hitting 42 of 72 greens while in 2018 Satoshi Kodaira ranked T-7th, so on the whole hitting greens is important to winning at Harbour Town.

Next important is around and on the greens. What makes Harbour Town tough is the greens, at 4,500 square feet they are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour to hit, so it makes sense that scramblers do well since the course ranked 42nd last year (62.99, 8th best on tour) and 45th in 2018. It was 46th in 2017, 26th in 2016, and 49th best in 2015 which in this case meant that the average player got it up and down 64.68% of the time, only three courses saw averages higher so you have to scramble well to exist. Last year’s winner C.T. Pan ranked T-16th while 2018 champion Satoshi Kodaira was T-13th mostly because he hit a lot of greens.
Last we pick a stat rarely used, strokes gained putting. That’s because at Hilton Head putting well doesn’t mean much, but you still have to make those nasty 4 to 8 footers. Last year in this stat Pan ranked 5th while in 2018 Kodaira ranked T-13th.

So as you can see the secret for Harbour Town is not brute force, but finesse and total control over your game. When you look at the champions at this course, every one of them is ranked in the bottom of driving distance and the longest is Davis Love III who won last in 2003. So think of it, every champion since has not hit it long, something that you won’t see at any other event on the PGA Tour. So the thought for the week is to hit it short and straight.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of fairways hit, last year Heritage finished 21st in this stat, 24th in 2018, 21st in 2017, 18th in 2016 and was 36th in 2015.

*Greens in Regulation: Stat is a great barometer on how good players manage their games around Harbour Town, last year Harbour Town ranked 6th in this stat last year and in 2018. Every year the players that hit lots of greens do well.

*Scrambling: So which course is tough to get it up and down on holes players miss the greens. Since all of the areas around the greens are mowed short and are left with really hard shots to get it close, scrambling is important. You are not going to be perfect so you have to make sure you can make pars from some tough places

*Strokes Gained Putting: Who gains the most strokes with their putter, since Harbour Town’s greens are so small you will see fewer putts as you won’t have as many three-putts but you still need to make those putts under ten feet.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2020 with 141 of the 156 players having stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to the other 130 stats for players in the RBC Heritage

DraftKings tips

Of the 153 in the field, 118 have played at least once at Harbour Town in the RBC Heritage since 2015:
  • Matt Kuchar is 42 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
  • Luke Donald is 30 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
  • Ian Poulter is 26 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
  • Branden Grace is 25 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Kevin Kisner is 25 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
  • Russell Knox is 24 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
  • C.T. Pan is 20 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
  • Kevin Streelman is 20 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
  • Troy Merritt is 20 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
  • Webb Simpson is 18 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
  • Bud Cauley is 17 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
  • Scott Piercy is 17 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
  • Wesley Bryan is 16 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
  • Brandt Snedeker is 15 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
  • Cameron Smith is 15 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Jason Kokrak is 15 under in 16 rounds, playing 5 years
  • J.J. Spaun is 13 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
  • Jim Furyk is 12 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Louis Oosthuizen is 12 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
  • Shane Lowry is 12 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
  • Bo Van Pelt is 11 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
  • Bryson DeChambeau is 11 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Dustin Johnson is 11 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 year
*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)
  • Scott Piercy is 17 under playing 2 years (-8.5)
  • Matt Kuchar is 42 under playing 5 years (-8.4)
  • Wesley Bryan is 16 under playing 2 years (-8.0)
  • C.T. Pan is 20 under playing 3 years (-6.7)
  • Kevin Streelman is 20 under playing 3 years (-6.7)
  • Troy Merritt is 20 under playing 3 years (-6.7)
  • Branden Grace is 25 under playing 4 years (-6.3)
  • Luke Donald is 30 under playing 5 years (-6.0)
  • Shane Lowry is 12 under playing 2 years (-6.0)
  • Bud Cauley is 17 under playing 3 years (-5.7)
  • Dustin Johnson is 11 under playing 2 years (-5.5)
  • Ian Poulter is 26 under playing 5 years (-5.2)
  • Kevin Kisner is 25 under playing 5 years (-5.0)
  • Emiliano Grillo is 10 under playing 2 years (-5.0)
  • Russell Knox is 24 under playing 5 years (-4.8)
  • J.J. Spaun is 13 under playing 3 years (-4.3)
  • Jordan Spieth is 8 under playing 2 years (-4.0)
  • Ryan Moore is 8 under playing 2 years (-4.0)
  • Cameron Smith is 15 under playing 4 years (-3.8)
  • Webb Simpson is 18 under playing 5 years (-3.6)
  • Brice Garnett is 10 under playing 3 years (-3.3)
  • Brandt Snedeker is 15 under playing 5 years (-3.0)
  • Jason Kokrak is 15 under playing 5 years (-3.0)
  • Jim Furyk is 12 under playing 4 years (-3.0)
  • Si Woo Kim is 9 under playing 3 years (-3.0)
  • Andrew Landry is 6 under playing 2 years (-3.0)
  • Brendon Todd is 6 under playing 2 years (-3.0)
  • Denny McCarthy is 3 under playing 1 years (-3.0)
  • Bryson DeChambeau is 11 under playing 4 years (-2.8)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

 

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:
  • Rory McIlroy – $11,300
  • Justin Thomas – $10,900
  • Bryson DeChambeau – $10,700
  • Jon Rahm – $10,500
  • Xander Schauffele – $10,200
  • Collin Morikawa – $10,000
  • Sungjae Im – $9,700
  • Hideki Matsuyama – $9,500
  • Justin Rose – $9,200
  • Webb Simpson – $9,000

So the big problem here is the cost of Rory McIlroy, boy $11,300 is a king ransom for a player who has never played this course, a type of layout that doesn’t suit his game.  Yes, he is the number one player in the world, but not on this course.  Justin Thomas is $10,900 and again you have to ask that magical question could Harbour Town be much for him.  One thing to remember Thomas did play the Heritage in 2015 and finish T-11th and he is 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-green and 12th in Greens in Regulation.  I call this a toss-up, not because of Thomas but the high price.  Bryson DeChambeau is $10,700 and again I worry about him.  His new body has given him an extra 20 yards, but you really don’t need the extra yardage off the tee.  Again I call him another toss-up pick but he has been Jeckell and Hyde at Harbour Town, T-3rd in 2018, T-4th in 2016 but missed cuts in 2019 &’17.  Jon Rahm at $10,500 is another tough choice, he missed the cut last week at Colonial and again I worry that this course could be too hard for him. You are probably wondering if I am crazy, not recommending anyone, but I really feel there are better, cheaper alternatives   With Xander Schauffele at $10,200 we see our first good choice.  Yes, his record in two starts isn’t great but he is great from tee to green, ranks 4th in Greens in Regulation this year and with him playing well could continue the good play this week.  Collin Morikawa at $10,000 is another good choice, he played great at Colonial the first time he has ever played the course and should do well the first time he plays Harbour Town.  This kid has been solid since joining the Tour last year, in 22 PGA Tour events he has played every round and hasn’t missed a cut yet.  Sungjae Im is $9,700 and worth the money, yes he missed the cut last year at Harbour Town but comes into this week on a roll. Hideki Matsuyama is $9,500 and just like Im you have to forget that in his only start in 2014 he missed the cut.  Matsuyama was playing well before the break and I don’t think he will win, but can give you a top-ten.  Justin Rose is $9,200 and I really like him a lot.  He worked hard on his game during the break, went back to his old clubs, and played great at Colonial.  Yes, Rose hasn’t played at Harbour Town since 2008, but he was T-7th in 2004 and this course is a lot like Merion which he won the U.S. Open on.  Last we have Webb Simpson at $9,000, now last week about this time I felt he had a great shot at winning Colonial and looked what happened, he missed the cut.  In the same position this week, I think he will do great.  Has played well Harbour Town, was runner-up in 2013 and T-5th in 2018, T-16th last year and he drives it straight, hits lots of greens, scramblers well and makes lots of birdies.  Again he will play well this week.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Lot’s of players at great prices in this range.  Off the bat we have Daniel Berger at $8,900, normally I would say he is a great choice, but I am going to pass on him just because he won and has too much on his plate this week.  Patrick Reed is $8,800 and again on paper seems good, but he has been terrible on this course in three tries so take a pass.  I do like Jordan Spieth at $8,700, his game seems to be coming around, was T-10th last week at Charles Schwab despite 71 in the final round.  At RBC Heritage was T-9th in 2013, T-12th in 2014 and T-11th in 2015 so it gives us an air of confidence with him.  The bottom line, if he hits the ball just ok but can putt well, he can win.  Now we go through a stretch of guys that seem to be low price, but I just don’t think they are ok for Harbour Town.  Brooks Koepka is $8,600, Dustin Johnson is $8,500 and Gary Woodland is $8,400.  Again all are good players but playing a course that just doesn’t suit them so save your money.  Matt Kuchar is at $8,300 and despite missing the cut last week I think he will be good this week.  He has a great record at Heritage and I think he will continue to play well this week.  Abraham Ancer is at $8,000 and despite missing the cut the only time he played in this event, he has had a great year and should be considered.  Same with Tyrrell Hatton at $8,000.  The price is right and even though he hasn’t played well in two tries at Harbour Town, it should be ok this week.  Shane Lowry is at $7,800 and worth the price, he was T-3rd last year.  Also, like Branden Grace at $7,800 he won this event in 2016 and has struggled on the PGA Tour since, but played well at Colonial and is worth the price.  Kevin Kisner is $7,700 and he has played well at Hilton Head.  On top of that was T-29th at Charles Schwab as he shot four-under-par rounds, was T-4th at Sony Open in Hawaii.  Ian Poulter at $7,600 is another good choice just for the fact that he has played great last three years at Harbour Town, T-11th in 2017, T-7th in 2018, and T-10th last year.  Was T-29th at Colonial so yes worth the price.  The last pick is J.T. Poston at $7,500, with final rounds of 67-66 finished T-6th at RBC Heritage last year.  The reason I like him, he is good on courses that reward good shotmaking, Poston won at Wyndham last year and was T-10th last week at Charles Schwab.

*Are there any “Bargains” out there?

Off the bat I have a winner, Luke List at $7,200 won on the Korn Ferry last week and was T-3rd at Harbour Town in 2018.  Rory Sabbatini is $7,200 and has a solid record at Harbour Town and played well last week finishing T-14th at Charles Schwab.  Last week I picked Jim Furyk and he played well at Colonial.  This week Furyk is $7,100 and another great pick with a terrific record at Harbour Town.  When you talk about great records at Harbour Town, you have to take Luke Donald at $7,000 just for the fact that he has been runner-up five times, 3rd twice, and was T-33rd last year.  Let’s talk about some “cheap” fliers, try Victor Perez at $6,500.  Yes, he has never played before at Harbour Town, yes he missed the cut last week at Colonial but like how he was playing before the break and gosh he is cheap.  Last we have Denny McCarthy at $6,200.  He was T-33rd last year and is the best putter on the PGA Tour, but from tee to green he is a disaster but if he can put it together one week could do well with the putter.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Heritage:

The key stat for the winner:

  • Harbour Town is one of the best courses in America; it’s a different experience in which ball placement is utmost over power.  Hitting it hard and far doesn’t work at this venue so look for a precision player to win. So what will it take to win this week’s Heritage Classic?
  • What makes the course tough is the greens, at 4,500 square feet they are some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour.  Over the last 14 years, they have been difficult to hit, of all the tournaments the U.S. Open is the only one that ranks harder to hit than the greens of Hilton Head.
  • Over the years putting and hitting greens have been vital to winning at Harbour Town.  If you look at the list of Heritage champions all of them are good putters, especially from the ten to twenty feet range.
  • With greens as small as those at Hilton Head scrambling is an essential element in being able to win.  Remember this, only seven courses last year on the PGA were tougher to scramble on than Harbour Town in which only 62.99% of the players got it up and down.  Look at the recent winners to see how important this stat is. Last year C.T. Pan missed 30 greens but got it up and down on 22 of these greens in his winning effort.  The year before Satoshi Kodaira missed 23 greens but got it up and down 17 times and was T-13th in scrambling.  In 2017, Wesley Bryan missed 32 greens but got it up and down 27 times to lead the field in scrambling.  In 2016 Branden Grace was 22 of 28 greens missed, he was 3rd in scrambling, in 2015 Jim Furyk led the stat getting it up and down 21 of the 22 greens he missed, the best in championship history.  The year before Matt Kuchar was 12th in that stat on the PGA Tour in 2014. The 2013 winner Graeme McDowell led the scrambling list at Harbour Town getting it up and down 79.2% of the time.  In 2012 Carl Pettersson was 21st, and Brandt Snedeker did an excellent job at 20th. But in the years before it was even better as in 2010, Jim Furyk was 4th in this category, getting it up and down 23 of 28 times.  In 2009 Brian Gay was first in this category, getting it up and down 22 of 24 tries.  In 2007 Boo Weekley only took 97 putts and won the category, Aaron Baddeley was 7th in his win in 2006, Davis Love III was 3rd in his 2003 victory, Justin Leonard was 7th in his 2002 win, Jose Coceres was 5th in 2001 and Nick Price was 3rd in 1997.
  • Heritage always seems to have dramatic finishes.  In the last 16 of the 21 Heritage’s, eight of them have had playoffs, six have had a one-stroke margin of victory while the other was two and five.  Last year C.T. Pan won by a shot over Matt Kuchar.  In 2018 Satoshi Kodaira beat SiWoo Kim in a playoff, in 2017 Wesley Bryan beat Luke Donald by a shot while the year before Branden Grace was the exception to the rule beating Luke Donald and Russell Knox by two shots.  The previous year Jim Furyk beat Kevin Kisner in a playoff while in 2014 Matt Kuchar defeated Luke Donald by a shot, thanks to a Kuchar birdie on the 72nd hole. In 2013 Graeme McDowell won in a playoff with Webb Simpson while in 2012 Carl Pettersson had an easy time winning by five.  In 2011 Snedeker went three extra holes before beating Luke Donald.   Can’t get any more exciting than in 2007 when Boo Weekley beat Ernie Els by a shot, but he chipped in on 17 and 18 for the win.  In 2010 Jim Furyk beat Brian Davis in a playoff.  So you just have to think things will be close at the end on Sunday.
  • Weather was great last week at Colonial, look for more of the same this week as each day will be warm, sunny with mild wins so great scoring weather.

Who to watch for at the RBC Heritage

Best Bets:

Justin Rose

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
WD

Finishing T-3rd last week in Ft. Worth showed that switching to his old clubs did the trick, had better control of his tee to green game. Hasn’t played at Harbour Town since 2008, was T-7th back in 2004.

Xander Schauffele

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T63 T32

Has struggle in RBC Heritage, T-32nd in 2018 and T-63rd last year, still played well last week. His game has been good and he could have won last week.

Bryson DeChambeau

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
CUT T3 CUT T4

Showed a new phase of his game last week as his added weight added yards to his drive which he placed accurately in the fairways and close to the greens. Has been Jeckell and Hyde at Harbour Town, T-3rd in 2018, T-4th in 2016 but missed cuts in 2019 &’17, still I like what he did last week and think it will carry over to this week.

Best of the rest:

Justin Thomas

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
75 T11

Was T-11th first time at RBC Heritage in 2015, played well last week in Charles Schwab finishing T-10th.

Matt Kuchar

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
2 T23 T11 T9 5 Win T35 T44 T21 T14 T48 T7

Great record at Heritage, last six years had a win in 2014, runner-up last year, 5th, T-9th, T-11th and T-23rd. Looking to bounce back after missing cut at Colonial, but was T-2nd at Genesis Open.

Webb Simpson

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T16 T5 T11 T66 T51 2 T52 T14 T14 CUT

Stunned a lot of folks with missed cut last week at Charles Schwab, still has played well at Harbour Town, was runner-up in 2013 and T-5th in 2018, T-16th last year.

Sungjae Im

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
CUT

Game in a good place now, won at Honda, 3rd at Arnold Palmer and T-10th last week in Charles Schwab. Missed the cut last year at RBC Heritage, still, that doesn’t worry me because he played good in Ft. Worth last week

Solid contenders

Collin Morikawa

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
First time playing in this event

Was 2nd at Charles Schwab, T-9th at Arnold Palmer, since turning professional last year he has played in 22 PGA Tour events without missing the cut. Playing for the first time at Harbour Town.

Kevin Kisner

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T41 T7 T11 T69 2 T38 CUT

Was T-29th at Charles Schwab as he shot four-under-par rounds, was T-4th at Sony Open in Hawaii. Mixed results at Harbour Town but was 2nd in 2015, T-7th in 2018. Was T-41st last year.

Jordan Spieth

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T54 T11 T12 T9

His game seems to be coming around, was T-10th last week at Charles Schwab despite 71 in the final round. At RBC Heritage was T-9th in 2013, T-12th in 2014, and T-11th in 2015.

Tyrrell Hatton

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
CUT T29

Returning from Europe, his last start won the Palmer. Even though he hasn’t played well in two tries at Harbour Town, it should be ok this week.

Long shots that could come through:

In a rare move on Wednesday morning, I am adding one more player to this list, Jason Kokrak.  He is always overlooked but in studying the field this morning realized that first Kokrak has done well at Harbour Town, he was T-16th last year but in 2016 was T-6th and T-12th in 2014.  But what got my attention was his driving accuracy stats, For the year he may be 142nd, but last week at Colonial, he was T-9th, his Strokes Gained Off the Tee is 8th ranked, his Strokes Gained Putting was 7th rank and his scrambling is 6th rank last week.  So remember his name, oh for you playing Draftkings he is a bargain at $7,900

Jim Furyk

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
CUT T70 CUT Win T7 T42 T8 T21 Win CUT 4

Despite being 50 can still do well at RBC Heritage, in 20 starts has eight top-tens including a win in 2010 and 2015. Was great last week at Charles Schwab was 7 under going into the final round but shot 74 to finish T-49th.

Ian Poulter

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T10 T7 T11 T54 T18 T36

Has played great last three years at Harbour Town, T-11th in 2017, T-7th in 2018 and T-10th last year. Been solid in the last five starts, was T-29th at Charles Schwab.

Luke Donald

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T33 CUT 2 T2 T15 2 T3 T37 2 T3 T2

Has always played well at Harbour Town, been runner-up five times and 3rd twice, was T-33rd last year, was T-11th in his last start at Honda Classic.

J.T. Poston

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T6

Good on courses that reward good shotmaking, Poston won at Wyndham last year and was T-10th last week at Charles Schwab. With rounds of 67-66 finished T-6th at RBC Heritage last year.

Not good for Harbour Town:

Rory McIlroy

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T58

Only played once at Harbour Town, was T-58th in 2009. Final round 74 at Charles Schwab dropped him to T-32nd, his highest finish since missing cut at British Open. Just think Harbour Town is not for him, he can’t play driver on half the holes and may get frustrated.

Dustin Johnson

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T28 T16 CUT CUT

Has played the last two years at Harbour Town, but T-16th in 2018 and T-28th last year. His game looked terrible in Skins Game last month and last week in missing the cut at Charles Schwab. Just like with Rory this course is not in his wheelhouse.

Jon Rahm

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
First time playing in this event

Was very frustrated last week at Colonial, feel he could be frustrated at Harbour Town, a course he has never played at before this week. Rahm still has problems staying patience and Harbour Town could drive him crazy.

Daniel Berger

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T33 T72

He may have won last week, but feel he will still be celebrating come Thursday and struggle.

Comments

  1. Douglas R says:

    You mentioned that you worry about DeChambeau, he’s a toss-up, and that his new body doesn’t really suit this course. But in the best bets section, you have him listed 3rd and see his performance carrying over from Colonial. Can you be a little more specific? He’s a toss up and you’re worried, or a “best bet”?

  2. I am stuck with words on DeChambeau. What he is doing is crazy, how many golfers do you know bulking up 40 pounds in four years to hit it farther? What Bryce has done is what Barry Bonds did 30 years ago when he was a young baseball player with the Pirates.
    Now the one thing you have to realize is that when Bryce is playing well, he continues to play well, he is a streaky player. On the other end, when he is off, boy is he off.
    Now just like Colonial, Harbour Town is a course that you shouldn’t cut off doglegs to gain yardage. What I saw last week with DeChambeau was crazy, he cut off a lot of doglegs in a manner that has never been done before. Now I have played Harbour Town a few times and can’t fathom him cutting off doglegs, you just don’t get away with it at Harbour Town with the water, gonk, swamp, trees, you name it lot’s of stuff off the fairway.
    So normally like I am doing with Rory, Dustin and Jon Rahm the smart play is to say no to Bryce, but since he is hot and streaky right now and the fact that he has had some success playing well on this course I am picking him in this manner. So not to avoid the question, but he is a “toss up best bet” I still have mix emotions on which direction to go with him, but I respect how well he does while “streaky.”
    Hope this answers the question.

  3. cpamadi11@gmail.com says:

    Hey Sal. Love the website man, great stuff! How do you feel about Lanto Griffin and Mark Hubbard as value picks?

  4. As for Griffin, I don’t see any upside. He missed the cut at Colonial, yes it’s only one event but other than his T-7th at Sony shows me no real upside. Same with Hubbard I don’t see anything in the leaves that say, hey pick me. I don’t know if you reread by picks, but have added Jason Kokrak to the list as not only value pick since he is only $7,900, but someone who could win this week.

  5. Douglas R says:

    Good answer! I pretty much deduced that from your info but thanks for clarifying. I appreciate your knowledge especially now from having said you played the course and it how difficult it’ll be to cutoff doglegs etc. Certainly will take that into account. I’m personally going to pass on him this week. I see him making a couple mistakes off the tee and perhaps a couple doubles, taking him out of contention. I think he’s kind of stubborn and might try to rip it over or through the water, swamp, trees. Good luck and thanks again!

  6. To cpamadi11@gmail.com,
    Big shock to see Mark Hubbard shot 64, I can only hope you didn’t listen to me.

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