BlogTravelers Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Despite Nick Watney testing positive for coronavirus, it seems that he is the only one and it seems as if things are back to normal.  He woke up on Friday and didn’t feel right, seems that a lot of the players on tour wear a “Whoop Band” which helps monitor how there body functions.  Many are wondering if Watney didn’t feel good why he was allowed to practice while he waited for his test, but Watney was very quick in telling Tour officials of the problem and I can bet he was careful not to be in contact with others.

It’s amazing how fast someone could get it, he took a test on Tuesday and was fine.  Have to say the tour has done a wonderful job making sure to keep the bubble stable without not allowing players and caddies to have a life.  According to Bob Harig on ESPN.Com Watney did nothing and was just unlucky.  So for the next ten days, he has to self-isolate himself in South Carolina.  Harig reported that Watney was in contact with 11 others but those folks took tests on Friday and were ok.

Guess this is all part of our new “normal.”

For more “Buzz” check out our new piece, Prelude to the Travelers

TO BE AWARE

Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson, Chase Koepka, Cameron Champ, and Graeme McDowell have withdrawn for either reasons to do with COVID-19 or personal reasons.  So be sure to check your picks

Tournament information:

This is the 69th annual Travelers Championship. The United States Junior Chambers founded the tournament in 1952 after an attempt to raise money from a turtle race the previous year failed. The Cromwell, Connecticut-based tournament was initially known as the Insurance City Open. The chief goal of the tournament since its inception has been to raise funds for the USJC’s philanthropic endeavors. In the inaugural tournament, war-hero Ted Kroll captured the crown, the second of his career. Four years later, the Insurance City Open served as a launching pad for Arnold Palmer as he notched his second win on the PGA Tour and the first on American soil in the 1956 Insurance City Open.

The Insurance City Open underwent a name change in 1967 when it became the Greater Hartford Open. The tournament’s original goal was given a boost when, in 1971, defending champion Bob Murphy donated $20,000 of his 1970 winnings to start the Greater Hartford Chapter of the “Jaycees.” The year 1973 was momentous for the Greater Hartford Open. To further boost tournament notoriety, entertainer Sammy Davis Jr., who frequently participated in the Pro-Am events, lent his name to Greater Hartford Open. Also in 1973, Billy Casper won his record fourth and final Greater Hartford Open. In 1985, the first major corporate sponsor for the event surfaced in the form of Canon USA.

Starting in 1985 the event added Canon to its name; however, the title would be altered just three years later. In 1988, Sammy Davis Jr. was removed from the name, and beginning in 1989; the tournament was became known as the Canon Greater Hartford Open. By 2001, the tournament had grown to previously unrealized levels. Phil Mickelson’s personal best 61, as well as appearances by Arnold Palmer and Lee Trevino, headlined the tournament, which saw a record 318,000 spectators come out to watch the 50th annual Canon Greater Hartford Open. In 2004, a three-year partnership was forged between Buick and the GHO. The result was the Buick Championship. After the three-year contract expired, however, Buick decided not to renew the contract. Consequently, St. Paul Traveler’s stepped in to become the new title sponsor since 2007.

Course information:

• TPC River Highlands
• Cromwell, Ct.
• 6,841 yards     Par 35-35–70
• The TPC River Highlands has experienced as many changes as the name of the tournament it hosts. The original piece of property was designed in 1928 by R.J. Ross, cousin to the more notable golf course designer Donald Ross. The course was tied to the Edgewood Country Club. However, when the Greater Hartford Open was searching for a larger venue than its home at Wethersfield Country Club in 1982, the Edgewood Country Club seemed like a perfect fit. Before the venue was fit to host a major PGA Tour event, course renovations were necessary. The Greater Hartford Chapter of the USJC hired Pete Dye to renovate the Edgewood Country Club golf course. Dye’s finished product, known as The TPC Connecticut, hosted the Greater Hartford Open in 1984. One of the key features of the new course, especially the back nine, was the incorporation of amphitheaters to improve a fan’s viewing experience. In 1989, a re-design team that consisted of Bobby Weed, and consultants Howard Twitty and Roger Maltbie, made some additional changes. After the renovation, the course became known as the TPC River Highlands.
• The golf course itself is forgiving. The par-70 course, measuring at 6,841 yards, has a Course Rating of 72.7 and a Slope Rating of 131. The tees and fairways are a 3/8″ cut of Bent Grass, while the greens are a 1/8″ cut of Bent Grass mixed with Poa annua. The rough consists of a mixture of Kentucky Blue Grass, Perennial Rye Grass, and fine Fescue cut at just over 6 inches. The 132-acre venue has 69 bunkers and five water hazards that come into play on six holes. Golf Digest rated TPC at River Highlands as one of the six best courses in the state of Connecticut. Another notable achievement for the TPC at River Highlands was that it was the 49th course to become fully-certified in the Audubon Cooperative Sanctuary Program for Golf Courses (ACSP), which promotes ecologically sound land management and the conservation of natural resources.
• Holes No. 4 and 10 provide the biggest challenge. The fourth hole is the most difficult on the golf course. It’s a severe dog-leg right that measures 481 yards. The tee shot requires a massive fade to reach the fairway while avoiding the tree-line on the right-hand side. From there, the approach shot goes into a tight green with a bunker guarding the front left. As for the 10th hole, the 462-yard par 4 requires a slight draw to the left-hand side of a tiny fairway to avoid the large fairway bunker on the right. From the fairway, the player aims for a green that is protected by a front left and back right bunker. The most famous portion of the course, the three-hole stretch from 15 to 17, incorporates a four-acre lake that is affectionately dubbed the “Golden Triangle.” Those three holes, along with the 18th, make up one of the top finishing stretches on the PGA Tour.
• In summer 2008 the new practice facility opened. The 23.5-acre facility is adjacent to the new First Tee of Connecticut nine-hole golf course that is in its initial phase of construction.
• Last year TPC River Highlands played to a scoring average of 69.72 and ranked T-19th.  In 2018 it played to a 69.60 average as it ranked 25th.  In 2017 the scoring average was 70.20 as it ranked T-20th.  In 2016 it played to an average of 69.67, just over a quarter of a shot under par.  It ranked 26th hardest course on the PGA Tour.  In 2015 it was to an average of 69.38, almost a three-quarters of a shot under par.  It ranked as the 29th hardest course on the PGA Tour that year.  In 2014 it played to a 69.69 average while in 2013 TPC River Highlands played to a 70.25 scoring average, just a quarter of a shot over par.  So it has played easily of late.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC River Highlands.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC River Highlands, based on data from last year’s Travelers and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020.
The most important thing to realize about TPC River Highlands, it’s a course that is very forgiving, you don’t kill a lot of brain cells in getting your way around it, and if you drive it long and reasonably straight, you can win. Just look at the roll call of past champions, guys like Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson, Kenny Perry, Phil Mickelson, Kevin Streelman, Marc Leishman, and J.J. Henry, guys that hit it far and chase it for their next shot. Now, this doesn’t eliminate short hitters, guys like last year’s winner Chez Reavie along with Brad Faxon, Woody Austin, and Olin Browne they have all won, and they are not long hitters. In 2016 Russell Knox won, he is classified as being in the middle, a person that can give it some stick, but is in the middle of the pack (in 2016 he ranked 108th in driving distance). Last year Chez Reavie won by four shots despite ranking T-54th in driving distance during the week and ranking 158th in driving distance for the year. Reavie was hot coming into the week, he was T-3rd at the U.S. Open at Pebble. Now playing well may not be a clue when you consider that in 2018 Bubba Watson won, the week before he missed the cut at the U.S. Open shooting rounds of 77-74. The year before in 2017, Jordan Spieth won, the week before he finished T-35th at the U.S. Open. So it doesn’t really matter how a player is doing coming into the Travelers.
In looking at characteristics of players who could win the Travelers, of course, your first choice should be guys that hit it a long way, guys that are playing well right by showing some promise at Harbour Town
As we pick up on the third event back from the break from COVID-19, the Travelers were to be played this week anyway, so we don’t have to look at the course differently like we did Colonial and Harbour Town that was played in different time slots.
Again the field for the third event in a row is super, not only do we have nine of the top-ten rated players off the Official World Golf Ranking and 33 of the top-50, there are 60 of the top-100 in the field. A more astonishing stat of the 154 players listed in the field now (suppose to be 156), 109 of those in the field have won at least once on the PGA Tour

In looking at our four categories, we have to go outside the box. Remember this isn’t a tough course, last year it played to a 69.72 average making it the 25th hardest course on tour. Hitting it long is essential, last year it ranked 10th on tour with an average of all drives being 278.7. But you don’t have to be accurate, it ranks 42nd on tour last year with a 69.43 average so driving it straight isn’t important. Now making birdies are important as 1,579 were made last year making it the 36th hardest on tour, not bad for a course that only has two par 5s. To score low you have to play good on its 12 par 4s, last year the par 4s average was 4.02, it ranked T-24th on tour last year. So our first category is Strokes Gained Tee-to-green because those that do well on the course do well in this stat and have had a significant advantage. Last year’s winner Chez Reavie ranked 1st for the week while 2018 winner Bubba Watson ranked 2nd in this stat Next is Par Breakers which is a combination of birdies and Eagles, you have to make a lot of them this week to have any chance. Last year TPC River Highlands was 15th hardest on tour as winner Reavie ranked T-5th. In 2018 the course was the 23rd toughest on tour in this stat while Watson ranked T-1st. Our third category is scrambling, that is getting it up, and down when you miss a green last year, TPC River Highlands was the 21st hardest as winner Chez Reavie was 2nd as he got it up and down on 15 of the 18 greens he missed. In 2018 the course was the 13th hardest while winner Watson was T-44th. In 2015 Bubba won and he led that stat. Our final category is par 4 average, last year TPC River Highlands was T-24th in this stat, Reavie was 13 under in this stat not only the best in the field but the only player in double digits. In 2018 Watson was 11 under the same that Spieth was the year before that. In 2015 when Bubba won he was 12 under on the par 4s and led that stat. In looking at the winners, the last six champions have been in double-digit numbers in par 4s which means it’s a very important element in winning the Travelers.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-green: Combination of distance off the tee, accuracy and the ability to hit greens in regulation.

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

*Scrambling: The percent of time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better.

*Par 4 averages: Players that do the best on par 4s.

Of the 156 players in the field, 143 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2020.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a look at the stats of the other 133 players in the Travelers

TO BE AWARE

Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson, Chase Koepka, Cameron Champ, and Graeme McDowell have withdrawn for either reasons to do with COVID-19 or personal reasons.  So be sure to check your picks

DraftKings tips

Of the 156 in the field, 135 have played at least once at TPC River Highlands in the Travelers since 2015:

• Paul Casey is 58 under, in 20 rounds playing 5 years
• Brian Harman is 39 under, in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Bubba Watson is 39 under, in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Keegan Bradley is 37 under, in 20 rounds playing 5 years
• Chez Reavie is 32 under, in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Bryson DeChambeau is 31 under, in 16 rounds playing 4 years
• Patrick Rodgers is 30 under, in 16 rounds playing 4 years
• Brendan Steele is 29 under, in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Kevin Tway is 27 under, in 12 rounds playing 3 years
• Marc Leishman is 27 under, in 18 rounds playing 5 years
• Charley Hoffman is 26 under, in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Danny Lee is 25 under, in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Patrick Reed is 25 under, in 16 rounds playing 5 years
• Russell Knox is 22 under, in 17 rounds playing 5 years
• Vaughn Taylor is 21 under, in 16 rounds playing 4 years
• Zach Johnson is 21 under, in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Brooks Koepka is 19 under, in 12 rounds playing 3 years
• Jason Day is 19 under, in 10 rounds playing 3 years
• Kevin Streelman is 19 under, in 16 rounds playing 5 years
• Patrick Cantlay is 18 under, in 8 rounds playing 2 years
• Tony Finau is 18 under, in 14 rounds playing 4 years
• Rory McIlroy is 17 under, in 8 rounds playing 2 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Paul Casey is 58 under playing 5 years (-11.6)
• Kevin Tway is 27 under playing 3 years (-9.0)
• Patrick Cantlay is 18 under playing 2 years (-9.0)
• Rory McIlroy is 17 under playing 2 years (-8.5)
• Brian Harman is 39 under playing 5 years (-7.8)
• Bubba Watson is 39 under playing 5 years (-7.8)
• Bryson DeChambeau is 31 under playing 4 years (-7.8)
• Patrick Rodgers is 30 under playing 4 years (-7.5)
• Stewart Cink is 15 under playing 2 years (-7.5)
• Keegan Bradley is 37 under playing 5 years (-7.4)
• Charley Hoffman is 26 under playing 4 years (-6.5)
• Gary Woodland is 13 under playing 2 years (-6.5)
• Chez Reavie is 32 under playing 5 years (-6.4)
• Danny Lee is 25 under playing 4 years (-6.3)
• Brooks Koepka is 19 under playing 3 years (-6.3)
• Jason Day is 19 under playing 3 years (-6.3)
• Brendan Steele is 29 under playing 5 years (-5.8)
• Russell Henley is 17 under playing 3 years (-5.7)
• Marc Leishman is 27 under playing 5 years (-5.4)
• Vaughn Taylor is 21 under playing 4 years (-5.3)
• Zach Johnson is 21 under playing 4 years (-5.3)

TO BE AWARE

Brooks Koepka, Webb Simpson, Chase Koepka, Cameron Champ, and Graeme McDowell have withdrawn for either reasons to do with COVID-19 or personal reasons.  So be sure to check your picks

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Rory McIlroy – $11,200
• Bryson DeChambeau – $11,000
• Justin Thomas – $10,800
• Webb Simpson – $10,500
• Jon Rahm – $10,200
• Brooks Koepka – $10,000
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,800
• Xander Schauffele – $9,600
• Dustin Johnson – $9,400
• Justin Rose – $9,200
• Collin Morikawa – $9.100
• Abraham Ancer – $9.000

TPC Highland is one of those courses that you either like or you don’t like.  Look at guys like Bubba Watson, Paul Casey, Marc Leishman, Keegan Bradley, and even Jordan Spieth.  These guys seem to always play well at River Highlands.  So look at past performances and you can tell if he is a guy to pick.

Now as for Rory McIlroy at $11,200 he is a terrible pick when you consider all of the bad final rounds he has had.  Of course, you know it will stop anytime now, but we have been saying this for a long time, yes he was ok in Mexico and Farmers, but the others have seen final round problems, so it’s best to stay off of him for a bit.  Now Bryson DeChambeau at $11,000 is a great pick, yes he finished T-8th last year and T-9th in 2018 but his game looks very good at Colonial and Harbour Town.  Have to say his long ball off the tee is perfect for this course so he will be the favorite.  Have to think that Justin Thomas at $10,800 is a good buy, yes his record at TPC River Highlands, but he did finish T-3rd in 2016.  Webb Simpson at $10,500 is another good buy, he has mixed results in the Travelers but was T-8th in 2017 and T-5th in 2013. – HE WITHDREW. Jon Rahm at $10,200 is a big no, his game hasn’t been sharp and his two starts weren’t anything to mention.  You have to wonder when a player doesn’t come back for a while if it means he just didn’t like the course and Rahm hasn’t been back since 2016.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,800 is not a good bet, first, we really don’t know Cantlay’s health and since he hasn’t played a full event since Genesis back in February, have to think that four months of rust could take an event or two to work around.  Xander Schauffele at $9,600 is a toss-up in my mind, first, his Travelers record isn’t that great and he was very inconsistent at Harbour Town.  But TPC River Highlands should be perfect for him, but I still am not taking him.  Dustin Johnson at $9,400 is also a big no, he seems to be hunting for something. some rounds look great but others don’t.  He has only played at the Travelers twice, and never played well so have to say this week is a lost cause for him.  The complete opposite for Justin Rose at $9,200.  He is a great price for a guy that is playing well and should do well at TPC River Highlands.  Yes, he hasn’t played in the event since 2013 mostly because he plays in Europe now, but has played well at the Travelers and should have a great week.  Collin Morikawa at $9,100 is a tough choice, the price is right but I am worried about his final round 74 at Hilton Head.  Still, he is cheap enough to be ok.  Then we have the real bargain with Abraham Ancer at $9,000.  He played well at the Travelers last year finishing T-8th and looked great at Colonial and held tight down the stretch on Sunday to finish 2nd at the RBC Heritage.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat, you have Paul Casey at $8,900.  It seems like a no brainer with his great record in this event, but his short game and putting are in sad shape and we will see if he sorted this all out over the break.  By best pick has to be Bubba Watson at $8,800.  He plays great at TPC River Highlands winning three times but his finish was great at Heritage and was T-7th at the Charles Schwab.  With Patrick Reed at $8,700, you have to take him seriously.  Had a T-5th in 2017 and had a T-7th at the Charles Schwab.  But in the same breath, he did miss the cut at Harbour Town.  Sungjae Im is at $8,600 and was T-21st last year at the Travelers.  Just like with Reed he was T-10th at Colonial but missed the cut at the Heritage.  Sergio Garcia is also a good buy at $8,500, he has done well at TPC River Highlands and was T-5th at Harbour Town.  The only problem, do we trust Sergio with our hard earn money, he has let us down many times over the years.  Taking about a player letting us down, we have Jordan Spieth at $8,400.  He is a past winner at the Travelers but since then was T-42nd in 2018 and missed the cut last year.  He finished poorly at Hilton Head, save your money.  Gary Woodland is $8,300 and on paper, TPC River Highlands should be good for him and it hasn’t been.  Still, he has played well since the break and he may be a good pick.  Tony Finau is $8,200 and despite not playing well on this course, you think that he could, so he is cheap enough to take a gamble on him.  My big pick is Joaquin Niemann at $7,900.  The stars seem to line up perfectly for him, he was T-5th at the Travelers in his only start in the event last year and played great at both Charles Schwab and RBC Heritage, he is 25 under in the 8 rounds.  Looking for a great long shot?  Try Brian Harman at $7,600.  He was T-23rd at Charles Schwab and T-28th at Heritage.  But we like the fact that at the Travelers he was 3rd in 2015, T-6th in 2018 and T-8th last year.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the Travelers

Keegan Bradley at $7,400 has played this event in the last nine years and in 2017 was T-8th and was T-2nd last year.  He was T-32nd at the Charles Schwab and think he will play well this week.  Can’t forget about the defending champion Chez Reavie at $7,300, he has been ok this year and will be good this week.  Have to say at $6,800 is a good price for Cameron Champ who hits it far and despite missing the cut last year could be better this year.  Do you want to take a possible wild ride?  Check out Michael Thompson who is $6,500, he was T-8th at the Heritage.  At the Travelers, he finished 4th in 2011 but in his next six cuts missed the cut.  Maybe he is playing good enough to repeat that performance.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Travelers:

The key stat for the winner:

The TPC at River Highlands is a different type of TPC course.  It was a reconfiguration of a traditional, old-style course, but it still has some of that flavor.  Most of the greens are small, raised, or crowned, making it a scrambler’s delight.  The tournament is well supported in the community, this year because of coronavirus there won’t be any gallery but in past years — as many as 80,000 spectators could be in attendance this week — so the timid need not apply.  Another factor that comes into play is the fact that the tournament has close finishes every year (except of course in 2009 when Kenny Perry won by three and last year).  Since it moved away from Wethersfield in 1983, 26 of the 36 tournaments have been decided by either a shot or a playoff, including in 2010 when Bubba Watson beat Scott Verplank and Corey Pavin in extra holes.  In 2012 Marc Leishman was a shot better than Charley Hoffman and Bubba Watson.  In 2014 it was another playoff, with Ken Duke getting the better of Chris Stroud. In 2015 Bubba Watson won again in a playoff, this time against Paul Casey.  In 2016 Russell Knox won by a shot over Jerry Kelly, in 2017 Jordan Spieth won spectacularly by holing a bunker shot in a playoff to beat Daniel Berger so tight finishes are the norm.  The last two years have been a big snooze as the Bubba Watson won by three shots in 2018 and Chez Reavie won by four shots last year.

Here is a chart that shows exactly how close tournaments have been in the 68-year history of the Travelers Championship:

• Tournaments tied after 72 holes: 23
• Tournaments won by one shot: 23
• Tournaments won by two shots: 8
• Tournaments won by three shots: 6
• Tournaments won by four shots or more: 8

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• So what is an essential element for the most recent past champions of the Travelers?  Putting and hitting it a long way.
• Last year Chez Reavie was first in Strokes gained Tee-to-Green, 2nd in scrambling, and 4th in putting.  The year before Bubba Watson kept the trend going winning his third Travelers title.  He did it ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 5th in total putting and putting average.  In 2017 Jordan Spieth kept the trend as he was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and was 4th in putts per round.  In 2016 Russell Knox’s key was hitting a lot of greens, but putting was very important for him as in the 48 putts he had of 4 feet and in he made everyone.  Look at Bubba Watson in 2015, he not only was the longest driver in the field but also had the best overall putting average. Kevin Streelman in 2014, he was 1st in putting average, 8th in total putting and 3rd in strokes gained putting.  The year before Ken Duke was 1st in putting average, 3rd in total putting and 10th in strokes gained putting.  To put this into perspective, of the last ten champions in the total number of putts, 7 of them were in the top-five, and all of them were in the top-13 except for Russell Knox in 2016, so putting well is the key to being successful.
• Hitting it far is more important than accuracy because the last 12 of 20 champions have been in the top-13 of the driving distance stat while only five winners have broken into the top-ten of the accuracy stat just once.  Last year’s winner Chez Reavie was the best of anyone since Peter Jacobsen also finished T-3rd in 2003.  In driving distance, Reavie ranked T-54th with a 279.3 average.  In 2018 Bubba Watson was 7th in driving distance while he was T-70th in accuracy.  In 2017 Jordan Spieth was T-51st in driving distance and T-42nd in driving accuracy.  But in 2015 Bubba Watson was 1st in driving distance and 70th in accuracy, so driving it long does have its advantages.
• Playing the par 4s well is another key. Of the last 23 champions, 16 have played those holes in 8-under or better, with Notah Begay III playing them the best in 16-under in 2000. Last year Chez Reavie played the par 4s in 13 under, in 2018 Bubba Watson played the par 4s in 11 under while the year before Jordan Spieth also played them in 11 under.  In 2016 Kenny Knox played them in 10 under while in 2015 Bubba played the par 4s in 12 under while the year before Kevin Streelman played them in 11-under par.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium. Just like in a U.S. Open, hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  Normally you would look for the winner to hit globs of greens and in 2016 Knox did it hitting 57 of 72 which ranked T-5th.  Last year Chez Reavie hit 54 of 72 to rank T-7th, Bubba did about the same in 2018 hitting 56 and was T-7th.  The year before Spieth hit 49 and ranked T-42nd while in 2015 Bubba hit 50 and was ranked T-38th.  The year before that Streelman hit 53 and was ranked T-10th.  But the previous three years the winners were poor in hitting greens, still, in looking at the last 17 champions, eight of them were in the top-ten.
• Again the long day lookup is for great weather for the whole week, temperatures of 88 each day with very little chance of rain.  With the exception of Sunday which has late showers on Sunday afternoon, a lot like what happened in Hilton Head on Sunday.