Blog3M Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Nice to see that we have played six events since the break and golf has been really successful. The PGA Tour has worked hard on both the PGA Tour and Korn Ferry Tour in making them safe and it shows. The tours have done 6,000 tests on players, caddies, and officials and only had 21 positive tests, showing what a great job everyone has done to not only being safe but maintain the bubble from week to week. The biggest disappointment is that there haven’t been any spectators so far and it looks like the next possible event with fans will be the U.S. Open in September.

Many will wonder how each of the first six events had great fields and now all of a sudden this week’s field is minus marquee names.  It’s all in the scheduling, this is a perfect week for most players to take off.  Next week you have the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational followed by the PGA Championship, two events marquee players will attend.  Then there is the Wyndham Championship before the FedExCup playoffs.  Two weeks after the playoffs is the U.S. Open, so you can see this week is the perfect halfway mark to take off.

One thing that the tournament lucked out on was the fact that Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka weren’t going to play, but both realized that they needed more reps before the St. Jude next week and the PGA Championship and thus are playing this week.  The one thing that will be nice to see, this week we will be able to see a lot of players that are great and normally don’t get a chance to shine, that will happen this week.

Course information:

• TPC Twin Cities
• Blaine, Minnesota.
• 7,468 yards     Par 35-36–71

Last year was the first year of the 3M open and the first time TPC Twin Cities was used in a PGA Tour tournament. It had been a popular venue for a Champions Tour event and when switched to the PGA Tour last year remained successful.  The one thing about the course, it played last year to a 69.45 scoring average, which is a shot and a half below its par.  Ranking wise it’s T-36th hardest on the PGA Tour as seven other courses played easier.

Tournament officials that set up the course last year were happy at the results, so we won’t see any differences this year.  Because it’s summertime the course is dry and fast, that along with the low humidity offered in Minnesota this time of year and temperatures in the 90s will keep scores low.  Despite the course having five holes with sharp doglegs meaning players have to be careful off the tee, the course is still considered a bombers haven.  The greens are a bit small at 6,500 square feet but very manageable. On the whole good putters will love TPC Twin Cities. Again look for players to find the greens in regulation and have deceit putts at birdies.  In its first year, 1,976 birdies were made making it the course with the most birdies made in 2019.  52 eagles were also made, good for a course with only three par 5s.

Off the tee, the course will rely on a combination of lakes (10 in total will be in play off the tee), bunkers (14 in total), and rough.  Five of the holes have sharp doglegs which players will have to lay back so that they don’t run out of the fairway, but still, long hitters will have there way with the course since the bluegrass fescue won’t be a problem for players.  There is a total of 72 bunkers on the course with 39 of them guarding the greens.

The big question answered last year and will repeat itself this year is that the PGA Tour will continue the traditions that the seniors experienced and that is tearing the course apart.  In the 12 years that the seniors played the course, the average winning score was 19 and a half under par, and that was in tournaments that were only 54 holes.  In 2010 David Frost won with scores of 64-66-61 for a 25 under par total.  Now the Arnold Palmer design course played at 7,114 yards and a par 72 for the seniors, but tournament officials have made some serious changes in 2018.  Not only has 354 yards been added to the course so that it will play at 7,468 yards but par has been reduced to 71.  Still, for the longest hitters in the world, this won’t present any problems.  Another thing that tournament officials are doing, holes 7, 10, and 16 have tees so that the holes could play between 280 and 315 yards making them drivable, but the holes are well guarded by water so they won’t be automatic birdie holes.  The three par 5s will play over 590 yards, so the will not be automatic birdie holes.

Of the players in the field last year, half of them have returned.  So that means the other half have never played here and will have to learn some local knowledge so that tends to help those that haven’t won much.  I also feel that the winner will be the player you least expected and that turned out to be so true last year as Matthew Wolff, a player that got in on a sponsor exemption won the tournament.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Twin Cities.

In looking at our four categories, we have picked four which is needed to win. First, we will use Strokes Gained Tee-the-Gree in which it looks at the combination of length of drive off the tee, accuracy, and ability to hit greens. Last year the average drive was 302.4 yards for all drives and ranked 39th meaning that only seven other courses on the Tour saw longer driving averages. As for accuracy off the tee, the course was 36th with 65.97% of the drives in the fairway. Looking at last year’s winner Matthew Wolff, he ranked 36th in Driving Distance and T-31st in Accuracy so he ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
Our 2nd category is Greens in Regulation. This is a type of course that greens are pretty easy to hit in regulation so TPC Twin Cities was ranked 42nd on tour with 73.38% of the greens hit. So this shows that a lot of players hit the greens last year. The winner Wolff hit 60 of 72 for 83.33% which ranked T-6th. Kevin Streelman. hit the most greens, 64 of the 72, but finished T-34th.
Our 3rd category is Strokes Gained Putting which is an important part of the game. Last year the putting average at TPC Twin Cities was 1.78 which ranked 40th. It averaged 29.28 putts per round which ranked it 19th and in the important inside ten feet it ranked 33rd. Wolff took 115 putts which ranked T-25th and in Strokes Gained Putting he was 39th. In the important putts made inside 10 feet, Wolff made 65 of 71 and ranked T-27th.
The last category is Par Breakers. As we said earlier in this piece 1,976 birdies were made on the course, the course with the most birdies made on it all year. It had a total of 52 eagles, which ranked 43rd at it ranked 39th in Par Breakers. Lashley made the most birdies of anyone in the field, 28 so his Par Breakers rank is 1st. Now Wolff made 26 birdies and one eagle as he was 1st in Par Breakers.
Wolff had an epic battle with Bryson DeChambeau and his eagle on the 72nd hole was the reason he won the tournament by a shot.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Combination of distance off the tee, accuracy off the tee and hitting greens

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Gives the equivalent to putting based on strokes gained or lost

*Par Breakers: Who makes the most birdies and eagles per round.

Of the 156 players in the field, 127 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2020.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to the other 117 players in the 3M Open.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,500
• Brooks Koepka – $11,200
• Tony Finau – $10.900
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,500
• Paul Casey – $10,100
• Bubba Watson – $9,900
• Matthew Wolff – $9,700
• Lucas Glover – $9,400
• Russell Henley – $9,200
• Harris English – $9,000

Have to say that this event will be a lot different than the previous events since the break.  First, we have a tournament that many marquee players took time off, so we don’t have the regular list of top-notch players.  In looking at the first five of the players, only Tony Finau is a really valid choice.  So look closely at all players from $7,500 on, most of your picks will be coming from those players.  One other thing, this event has only been played once so half of the players won’t have any history at TPC Twin Cities which will make picking the right players tough.  The biggest rule of this week, look for the player you least expect to win this week.  Be sure in making your six picks to take guys that will make the cut.

Right off the bat, we have serious questions on Dustin Johnson at $11,500.  Last week he had his worst performance ever on the PGA Tour, a pair of 80s to miss the cut.  This came three weeks after he won the Travelers Championship which made us feel that maybe he had things figured out.  So what to do this week.  Frankly, I would say that what happened last week was a fluke, Johnson hasn’t played great at Muirfield Village and TPC Twin Cities is perfect for his long game.  Still, the cost is too high, best to take a pass on him.  Brooks Koepka at $11,200 is a very easy pass on.  Not only is his game not in great shape, but we wonder if he is having problems with his knee again.  Yes just like Johnson TPC Twin Cities should be perfect for Brooks but not this week.  Tony Finau at $10,900 is another story, I say yes on him.  He played last year and finished T-23rd with four rounds in the 60s as he was 13 under.  He led the Memorial after the 1st and 2nd rounds and falter on the weekend, but feel he learned something and will be good this week.  Tommy Fleetwood at $10,500 is another question.  When we last saw him at the Players Championship his game had problems, but most of them were worrying about what to do with the pandemic coming.  Normally Fleetwood is always good and will play well this week, but don’t see him winning.  His game will be rusty and that’s the reason you pass on him.  Paul Casey at $10,100 is another pass, his game hasn’t been sharp and he is playing in this event for the first time, so nothing gives us confidence that he can turn it around.  Bubba Watson at $9,900 is one that we think will love TPC Twin Cities, but he hasn’t played well.  Still, he does produce a lot of birdies, yes he has missed three cuts in his last four starts, but anything is possible with him.  Defending champion Matthew Wolff at $9,400 is another to think is a go.  He has played mixed results of late, was 2nd at the Rocket Mortgage but missed the cut at Heritage, Travelers, and Workday.  Still, the course will help inspire him to good things.  Lucas Glover is high at $9,400, probably because he was T-7th last year at 3M.  Since the break, he has made all five cuts in events he has played in and makes lots of birdies.  The only thing to worry about is if you can get your $9,400 investment out of him finishing T-25th.  Russell Henley at $9,200 is a no-go for me, he missed the cut last year at 3M and even though he was T-7th at the Workday, that isn’t enough to get me to pick him this week.  Now it’s a completely different story for Harris English at $9,000.  Think he is the best pick of the lot, yes he missed the cut last year.  But he has played solid all year, was T-13th last week at Memorial and I can feel his game is improving.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Off the bat, I like Erik Van Rooyen at $8,800.  He is the type of outsider that could pop up this week, he was T-22nd last week at Memorial and has played solidly this year, also is 45th in driving distance this year.  Doc Redman at $8,700 and despite missing the cut last year, has been solid.  Now Henrik Norlander at $8,600 is a very good pick despite now being a long hitter.  I like him because he has been very solid since coming back from the break, had his best finish last week at the Memorial finishing T-6th.  Now another great pick is Sam Burns at $8,500.  He was T-7th last year at TPC Twin Cities, makes some sense, he ranks 22nd in driving distance on tour.  In his last three starts were T-24th at Travelers, T-30th at Rocket Mortgage, and T-17th at Workday.  This is one of those folks you least expect that will do well.  Luke List at $8,400 is someone to think about, yes he hits it long and ranks 19th this year in driving distance.  He missed the cut last year at the 3M but did finish T-10th at the Memorial.  Brian Harman at $8,000 is another possibility. He was T-7th last year and even though he has missed the cut in his last three starts, he could reinvent himself for this week.  Sepp Straka is $7,900 and despite missing the cut last year at 3M, has played well of last including a T-8th at Rocket Mortgage.  Also, like Dyan Frittelli at $7,600.  Last year was T-46th, he was T-8th at Heritage and T-22nd at Memorial.  Then we have Troy Merritt at $7,500.  He was T-7th last year and despite missing the cut at Memorial, was T-8th at Rocket Mortgage.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the 3M

Slim pickings, basically we are looking at someone that can make the cut.  One person that fits the bill is Bernd Wiesberger at $7,200, he plays mostly on the European Tour and does make a lot of cuts.  Pat Perez at $7,200 was T-53rd last year and for 2020 has made 10 of 14 cuts.  In his last start was T-39th at the Workday Charity.  Denny McCarthy at $7,100 is another that makes a lot of cuts, may not it long but makes a lot of putts.  If you’re looking for someone low, Stewart Cink at $6,600 is good, he has not played in this event and for 2020 has made 11 of 13 cuts, including finishing T-62nd last week at Memorial.  Another longshot is Fabian Gomez at $6,300.  He was T-13th last year and has had mixed results since the break, was T-30th at Rocket Mortgage. One last player in this low range is Ryan Brehm at $6,100.  We like him purely on the fact that he is 3rd in driving distance this year and you never know if that will help him, his last start he missed the cut at Rocket Mortgage.  Have to say that not many folks will pick him this week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the 3M Open:

The key stat for the winner:

Last year we told you that looking at the seniors that played well at TPC Twin Cities during the 3M Championship, the one stat that jumped out was how those that won and finished in the top-five were high up in hitting greens.  Last year not only did winner Matthew Woof hit it long, but he hit 60 of the 72 greens which ranked T-6th.  In looking at those in the top-ten in Greens in Regulation for 2020, Aaron Wise (4th), Emiliano Grillo (5th), Russell Henley (7th), Will Gordon (8th) and Kyle Stanley (10th) are in the field.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• With the greens not having many undulations, good putters will do very well.  Last year runner-up Bryson DeChambeau had only 107 putts, the least of anyone in the field.  Look for those at the top of the Strokes Gained Putting to play well, here are those in the top-ten of that list that is playing this week: Denny McCarthy, (1st) and Andrew Putnam (3rd).
• Another important item that we saw last year and within the seniors playing TPC Twin Cities was making lots of birdies and eagles.  Look for those players that week in and week out make a lot of birdies and eagles.  In looking at the top-ten from the Par Breakers stat we have Seam Power (7th).
• As we have stressed, this event won’t see many marquee names on top of the leaderboard.  For most of them, the players you least expect to be at the top, just like Matthew Wolff last week, will rule.
• Weather should be good this week, with temperatures going into the low 90s with just a little bit of humidity.  Possibility of Thunderstorms in the afternoon, Saturday, and Sunday could be a problem in the afternoon.