BlogPGA Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

On a personal note, this is a sad week for me.  I have attended every major championship and every Ryder Cup going back to the 1987 U.S. Open, that’s like 147 straight championships I have attended.  Making the pain even deeper, I have attended every PGA Championship going back to 1975 at Firestone when Jack Nicklaus won, that is 45 straight PGA’s.  Come next month if the U.S. Open is played the same with that, I have attended every U.S. Open going back to 1975, 45 straight.  At 64 years old, unless they come up with some miracle cure, these will be streaks I will never be able to obtain again and it’s a shame.  I kind of knew it was stupid and more ego-driven than anything else but was hoping to make it to 50 straight.  So looking forward to 2024 and Valhalla, site of the PGA and then Pinehurst, site of the 2024 U.S. Open in which I would have been to not only 50 straight PGAs and U.S. Open’s, but 168 straight majors and Ryder Cups in a row.  Guess nobody but I and my dogs really care so on to some golf.

Have to say this, boy is golf’s biological clock going to really get screwed up this week. Not only will they be playing the first major championship in August, when last year it was established that majors would be finished in July at the British Open. But for most players (with the small exception of those coming from the Barracuda), the last eight weeks have been about playing in hot, humid conditions in which the ball has been flying googillion miles. For all those that have been playing regularly over the last eight weeks and especially those coming from Memphis, they will be in for a different experience this week at TPC Harding Park because everything shall we say in the stratosphere will be definitely different this week. Instead of stifling conditions that everyone would be sweating profusely, players will find themselves having to bundle up as each day will be in the mid-60s and the conditions will change during the day. Since the course is just a half a mile from the Pacific and it is August, the course will have clouds and fog in the morning that will burn away by 11 for a few hours of sunshine and then the clouds moving in around 3. With conditions like this, Bryson DeChambeau will probably not see drives in the 360-yard range and be lucky to hit it over 300 yards this week. So the advertised length of the course at 7,251 will be that and it will probably play long this week.  Oh, and talking about DeChambeau he is probably a very good player to start off with.  After being the hottest player on the planet last month, he has come down to earth and his game is showing signs that yes he is human and can make mistakes.  After missing the cut at Memorial and finsihing T-30th in Memphis DeChambeau comes to San Francisco a bit deflated and looking to regain the mojo he had last month.  DeChambeau needs to realize that on some courses hitting greens in regulation is important and the last two weeks on courses that he hasn’t had flip wedges left tot he greens he has stumbled on, he was T-61st in Greens in Regulation in Memphis.  If that happens at the PGA Championship it will be another long week for him.

As for some other key players, gosh anything is possible. Last week we were worried about the health of players like Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, and Jason Day and many including myself were wondering if their seasons were dead. But all three proved that wrong in Memphis and will be very talked-about this week. The biggest Brooks Koepka was T-2nd in Memphis and will have a big bullseye on his back in the early days of this championship as many wonders if it’s humanly possible to win a major championship three straight years in a row. It’s been 64 years since it’s last been done by Peter Thomson winning the British Open in 1954, ’55 & ’56. Adding to the rarity of the feat, it had been 29 years since Walter Hagan did his four-peat between 1924 and 1927 and 22 years and before that when Willie Anderson won the U.S. Open in 1903, ’04 & ’05 so you can see the type of rarefied air that Koepka is breathing this week. Making things worst there are 155 players that would love for Koepka not to accomplish that feat just this week, out of that pack about 40 have a legitimate chance of really winning. The one with the biggest chance will be Justin Thomas who played great in the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and told the world after his three-shot victory that he has been working really hard on his game since the break and was surprised it took this long for him to register a victory. So for many, this is all the news they need, just have the engravers put his name on the Wanamaker Trophy now.

As for Dustin Johnson, he showed in Memphis that he had some life left in him my finishing T-12th after he missed the cut at Memorial with a pair of 80s and then departed the 3M on the cloud of possible back problems.  Didn’t seem to have any back problems in Memphis as he broke 60 all three days as he finished T-12th.  He was five back of winner Justin Thomas and things could of been better if he didn’t take a first-round triple-bogey seven on the 17th hole.  So have to think he will be in the mix this week.  Have to also think that Jason Day will be in the mix.  He has been banged up for a long time with a bad back and struggled with his game all year.  They at the Workday Open he was T-7th, followed by a T-4th at the Memorial, five shots back of winner Jon Rahm.  In a surprise move, Day announced before the start of the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational that he parted ways with his longtime swing teacher Colin Swatton.  The pair had one of the longest relationships on the PGA Tour, they have been together for over 30 years since they met the first day that Jason attended boarding school when he was 12 years old. When Day came to America and won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2007, he called and convinced Swatton to join him in America as not only his swing coach but as his caddie and traveling companion as well.  In 2017 Swatton stepped away from the bag and just became his instructor.  Day says he just wants to work on his own as it pertains to his own swing and game  At the WGC-FedEx St.Jude, he was T-6th, four shots of winner Thomas so you have to wonder if Day can contend this week?

All of this, plus with Tiger Woods back, and you never know what could happen to him, what could happen this week.

Tournament information:

This is the 102nd edition of this event, and the first time the PGA Championship has been played at TPC Harding Park.  This course has never held a major championship on it.  Harding Park is a new, old face to professional golf.  TPC Harding Park is a municipal course owned by the city of San Francisco.  The course has a storied history in San Francisco golf legend holding several PGA Tour events in the 60s plus a lot of local championships.  For years Harding Park was called one of the most demanding and underrated courses around since it first opened in 1925.

In the 70s, with the money crunch brought to California with Proposition 13, Harding Park became neglected.  The gem of public golf became a weed-infested haven, and if former USGA president Sandy Tatum didn’t step in with a helping hand, the course would have been forgotten.  Tatum remembered how the course was in the 50s and 60s, he played in numerous city championships held at the course and championed its revival.  He got corporate backing, and with the help of the PGA Tour promising to bring championships to the course, a $16 million renovation took place in 2002.  The total cost grew to $24 million and the WGC-American Express Championship was held at Harding Park in 2005 with Tiger Woods beating John Daly in a three-hole playoff with the course redone.  Four years later, the Presidents Cup was held at Harding Park, with the U.S. Team winning by five points.  Then in 2015, it held the WGC-Dell Match Play as Rory McIlroy beat Gary Woodland in the finals.  But it’s most significant accomplishment will be this week.

Harding Park is located less than a mile from the Pacific Ocean, and in the four days don’t be surprised to see all four seasons during the week so that the weather will play a significant role.

The biggest rap against Harding Park is the greens. They are very flat with no undulations.  What that means is that the excellent ball strikers that don’t putt very well will have a significant advantage this week.  Adam Scott is a perfect type of player, great ball striker, but poor putter.  If you were to look at the players leading in greens hit that aren’t supreme putters, six names jump off the page that could do well this week, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Paul Casey, Webb Simpson, Adam Scott, Chez Reavie and Collin Morikawa. So hitting lots of green will be a must as putting will be a lot easier this week.  Look for a lot of ten to fifteen footers to be made.

Driving will be key.  The rough will be thick, and those players that hit it right or left of the rough wouldn’t get away with it because the fairways are lined with lots of trees.  Some will think that the course is short, yes 7,251 yards is short under today’s standards, but remember the area of the course is in.  With fog coming in most evenings, the course is very lush, and the players will see minimal roll.  So, of course, a straight driver will have an advantage over a long hitter this week.

Course information:

• TPC Harding Park
• San Francisco, California
• 7,251 yards     Par 35-35–70

In 2020, the PGA Championship will make its fifth appearance in California, following Hillcrest Country Club (1929), Pebble Beach Golf Links (1977), and Riviera Country Club (1983 and 1995). It will also become the first time San Francisco hosts a PGA Championship. Harding Park will be the third municipally-owned golf course to host the PGA Championship (Tangle wood in 974 & Bethpage in 2019).

Situated on a gently rolling peninsula surrounded by the shores of Lake Merced in San Francisco’s southwest corner, Harding Park has reclaimed its stature as one of the top public golf properties in the United States. The course opened for play in 1925 after a design by noted architects Willie Watson and Sam Whiting, who also oversaw the construction of the Olympic Club (which will host the 2028 PGA Championship and 2033 Ryder Cup). Officials named the course after President Warren G. Harding; the 29th President of the United States was an avid golfer who died at the Palace Hotel in 1923 during a visit to San Francisco.

The course became immediately popular and gained national notoriety when the United States Golf Association selected the par-70 course to host the U.S. Public Links Championship in 1937, which again was played at Harding Park in 1956. After that time, the course endured a slow deterioration and fell into what the San Francisco Chronicle described: “Weeds, clusters of daisies and splotches of dirt came to characterize this once-pristine layout.”

Enter Sandy Tatum, who had played in the San Francisco City Championship while attending Stanford University and stayed in the Bay Area, spending his career there as an attorney. Tatum had gained stature in the golf industry, serving as president of the USGA. Tatum became instrumental in turning Harding Park’s fortunes around, receiving assistance from local government leaders.

There is nothing fancy to the course, there is no real charm to the course other than it’s an old-style design from the time.  The course is on rolling terrain and at the time it was built by Willie Watson and Sam Whiting on wind-swept dunes.  But with the advent of the depression and the need to put people to work the city decided to have a massive tree-planting project at Harding Park and lined the fairways with hundreds of eucalyptus, Monterey Pine and cypress trees.  The main reason for the project was that the course was public and to make it more manageable for the general public, the trees would make the wind no longer a factor anymore.

Harding Park was highly regarded in golf circles from its opening through the 1960s. It hosted the United States Public Links Championship in 1937, won by Bruce McCormick, as well as the 1956 Publinks won by James Bixbaum.

Now a couple of important things to remember about TPC Harding Park.  They are going to say that the primary rough is a combination of Poa/bent/rye and is 3.5 inches long.  But the dirty PGA of America secret is that the course is really easy and without really wicked rough the course will be like a local muni with these guys making birdie on every hole. So the rough is tough.  The second thing they say the greens are bent.  Don’t believe it, there is not a single green on a single course that is within a mile from the Pacific Ocean that isn’t overrun with Poa Anna.  So the greens will be harder to read and late in the afternoon will tend to get bumpy, that is the facts with Poa in greens.

DraftKings tips

Before we get to our picks, we have to look at last week’s picks because it was a very hard week on DraftKings.  Let’s review what the top-price folks did on the leaderboard, it was very poor:

Jon Rahm – $11,400    He finished T-52nd

Rory McIlroy – $11,200   He finished T-7th

Bryce DeChambeau – $10,000  He finished T-30th

Justin Thomas – $10,700  He won

Patrick Cantlay – $10,100  He finished T-35th

Webb Simpson – $9,900  He finished T-12th

Xander Schauffele – $9,800  He finished T–6th

Tyrrell Hatton – $9,700  He finished T-69th

Daniel Berger – $9,600  He finished T-2nd

Collin Morikawa – $9,500 He finished T-20th

Viktor Hovland – $9,400  He finished T-59th

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Justin Thomas – $11,300
• Brooks Koepka – $11,100
• Rory McIlroy – $10,700
• Jon Rahm – $10,500
• Bryce DeChambeau – $10,300
• Xander Schauffele – $10,000
• Webb Simpson – $9,700
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,400
• Tiger Woods – $9,200
• Dustin Johnson – $9,000

So you can see from the chart above this week’s picks,  it was a tough week if you bought the high priced talent last week.  I kind of got suckered into Rahm and he didn’t play well but liked Thomas, and I did well on him.  So what is ahead of us this week at the PGA Championship.  I will say this, anybody watches the classic show “Seinfeld”?  I love the show and have seen each one of the shows at least five times.  One of my favorite shows is the one called “The Opposite.”  It’s the one that George tells Jerry that eery decision he seems to make has been wrong and his life is screwed because of that.  So Jerry tells him that if every instinct you have is wrong, do the opposite.  Maybe we should think this week to do the opposite and I will tell you why.

First of all, they are playing in conditions totally different.  After 8 weeks of hot, humid weather, they are playing in chilly, crisp windy conditions.  Instead of playing on dry courses in which the balls roll a long way, they will be playing on course that will give them no roll so drives will be shorter.  Club selection will be harder because they will be at sea level and at cooler conditions, balls won’t fly as far so you will see players coming up short.  So I say in decision making this week think opposite of what your first hunch will be.

So your first “hunch” on seeing Justin Thomas at $11,300?  My first thought is that he won last week so he won’t have anything in the tank left for this week.  Think opposite, he is young and has lot’s of energy, his stats are great 1st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 2nd in Strokes Gained Approach the Green, 2nd in Proximity to Hole all of these show that Justin is playing great coming into the PGA Championship and can win for a second straight week.  Next is Brooks Koepka at $11,100 and I will say this no matter what anyone says, winning three straight majors is like rolling three straight 7 or 11s in a row in craps, it’s just not done.  The last time it happened as when I was two days old and that was 64 years ago and I can say it won’t happen again this year.  Now, will Brooks play well, yes so he could make you some good points worth the points.  Rory McIlroy at $10,700 is a yes for me because of his win at the Match Play victory in 2005, but hey that is my first hunch so playing the opposite says don’t pick him this week.  Jon Rahm at $10,500 is a yes he is the top pick, no opposite at work here.  Yes, he played poorly in Memphis but finished with a 66 on Sunday.  At the Workday, played poorly but finished with a 64 and won the next week at Memorial.  But here is the most important thing for you to know, Rahm has the California mojo. In 13 starts in the “Golden State” has three wins and six top-five wins and rules on courses with poa, so that is why I like him a lot this week.  Bryce DeChambeau at $10,300 is a waste of your money, save it for the FedExCup were he will rule at TPC Boston.  Xander Schauffele at $10,000 says yes based on playing well at Pebble during the U.S. Open and has been trending and looking to possibly peaking this week.  Webb Simpson at $9,700 is from the south so you say no to the west coast and poa but at the U.S. Open in 2012 just down the road at Olympic he won.  That course has a lot of characteristics that Harding Park has so that opposite tends to kick in on our choice of him.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,400 is another problem because the opposite doesn’t work because we don’t know which direction to go so it’s best to pass on him.  Tiger Woods at $9,200 is more betting from your heart instead of betting what is right, he just has not played enough competitive golf to believe he can win this week.  Dustin Johnson at $9,000 does have a good chance at winning and I think he is a good bet.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Our first name up is Daniel Berger at $8,800 and normally since he is from the south I say no, but in looking at his west coast record he has some good starts at Pebble including a T-5th last February so he is worth the money since behind Thomas he has probably played second best since the break.  Jason Day at $8,400 is a very scary person to think about because of his back.  The main problem is the cool temperatures this week, that could present a problem for him.  But have to say, of late he has played great golf and could be peaking.  What I like most about him is his California record and the fact that he has won twice at Torrey, a course with Poa, and played well at Pebble a course with Poa.  I like Hideki Matsuyama at $8,200 many because he hits the ball so straight and keeps it out of the rough and hits a lot of greens.  Poor putter, maybe these flat greens will be good for him.  Matthew Fitzpatrick at $8,100 is used to poa because they have it in England.  He has played well of late, T-6th at WGC-FedEx St. Jude, was 3rd at Memorial.  Getting to some really good choices now, first Gary Woodland at $7,900 is fine, Since the break, his best finish was T-5th at Workday, but what impresses me is that he has been low key the last couple of months just like he was before he won at Pebble last month.  In the PGA Championship was T-8th last year, T-6th in 2018 lost in the finals of the Match Play to Rory at Harding Park in 2015.  Hard to believe after last week that you can get Phil Mickelson at $7,600.  Yes, his year has not been the best, but he was T-2nd in Memphis and he is returning to California where he has won 14 times.  Maybe because Phil was T-29th at Harding Park in the 2005 WGC-Amex and he took a pass on the 2015 Match Play due to family commitments, but in the 2009 Presidents Cup he won five of five matches so I think he likes TPC Harding Park and will do well this week.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the PGA Championship

Let’s see what we can find in the bargain barrel this week.  Paul Casey is $7,500 and I know has had is share of problems this year, last week was T-67th in Memphis but have to think he will get a top-ten this week.  Was T-5th in the Match Play in 2015, putting is his problem and these greens will help that.  His game is ok so maybe this will work for him.  Brendon Todd is $7,400 and has to wonder if last week either did damage to him that he will play bad this week or his game will be solid and will play well.  I think he will play well and looking to get some of his mojo back.  Same with Chez Reavie at $7,400, he is a very good pick just because he played well last week, has played well since the break and does well on poa and in California.  Scottie Scheffler is $7,300 and always like him because he makes cuts.  Erik Van Rooyen is $7,100 and has played well of late and think he will have a good week.  Cameron Champ is $7,000 and returns to the Bay Area and 100 miles from his home in Sacramento.  Lucas Glover at $6,700 is always are a low priced guy that we know will make the cut and make a lot of points for you.  His U.S. Open win came on a “muni” course, who knows what can happen on another “muni” course with greens he can handle.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at TPC Harding Park:

• A player that drives the ball long and straight and will make almost all of his putts inside 8 feet.  That is very easy to say, is there a human being that can do that?  Yes, there will be a few but we won’t know it until the weekend.
• You look at events held in Torrey Pines, Riviera, and Pebble Beach a lot of those born or with California roots have won them.  Harding Park has had its share of California winners, four of the seven Lucky International winners had California roots plus Tiger Woods from 2005 WGC-Amex so yes you have to favor someone from California this week.  Yes it’s advertised that the greens at TPC Harding Park are tyee bentgrass but it’s nearly impossible for any course by the sea in California not to have some Poa in the greens, so that helps give those with California roots another added advantage in possibly winning this week.
• Harding Park is located less than a mile from the Pacific Ocean and over the course of the four days don’t be surprised to see all four seasons during the week.  Morning fog will greet early morning players, with the sun breaking through at about noon.  On really sunny days, the wind will pop up just after lunch, thus bringing back the fog.  As for poor weather there aren’t any storms in the Pacific which means dry conditions for the championship.  Still, it takes a different breed of player to control the changes that are experienced playing near the ocean in August.
• The biggest rap against Harding Park is the greens. They are very flat with no undulations.  What that means is that the excellent ball strikers that don’t putt very well will have a significant advantage this week.  Adam Scott is a perfect type of player, great ball striker, but poor putter.  If you were to look at the players leading in greens hit that aren’t supreme putters, six names jump off the page that could do well this week, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Paul Casey, Webb Simpson, Adam Scott, Chez Reavie and Collin Morikawa. So hitting lots of green will be a must as putting will be a lot easier this week.  Look for a lot of ten to fifteen footers to be made
• Driving will be key.  The rough will be thick and for those players that hit it right or left of the rough, they wouldn’t get away with it because the fairways are lined with lots of trees.  Some will think that the course is short, yes 7,251 yards is short under today’s standards but remember the area of the country the course is in.  With fog coming in most evenings the course is very lush and the players will see very little roll.  So of course a straight driver will have an advantage over a long hitter this week.
• There is also the unknown factor in which the course could yield low scores to an unknown player. In 17 of the last 29 PGAs, the winner has claimed his first major in the PGA Championship with names like 2017 winner Justin Thomas, Jimmy Walker, and 2015 winner Jason Day.  So this could be a good omen for a Bryce DeChambeau, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Matt Kuchar, or Patrick Cantlay. Rich Beem and Shaun Micheel weren’t household names when they won, so you never know if that will get repeated.