BlogWyndham Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Have to say the buzz will still be on the PGA Championship.  Collin Morikawa is now the biggest item in golf.  It will be interesting to see what the future lies for him, we have seen a lot of young guys come out and win majors, from Rory McIlroy to Justin Thomas to Jordan Spieth to Jason Day and all of them we ask the question, could they be the next Tiger?  The answer is easy, we still haven’t seen the next Tiger and even though Spieth won his third major at 26 years old has sputtered to a stop.  But Morikawa has something different going on.  In just 14 months since graduating college and turning pro, he has played in just 28 events as a professional and has three wins including a major.  Nobody in the last 50 years has had as good of a start as Morikawa, other than Tiger Woods who in his first 14 months as a professional and 28 events won five times and a major.  Now, this is something to watch if Morikawa can continue to win because for Tiger he was redoing his swing in 1998 and ’99 and only won once.  So Collin could surpass Tiger in the coming two years.  But after that, we know that it will be impossible to keep up the pace that Tiger did in the three years between the 1999 and 2002 PGA Championship.

Another thing that we have to point out is what a great venue TPC Harding Park turned into.  The holes are plain and simple and nothing that visually grabs you other than the pretty trees that line the course.  I laughed every time that someone hit into a fairway bunker because they were all flat and easy to get out of.  Nothing fancy about the greens, matter of fact it seemed everyone made putts, and in looking at the stats only one course, TPC Twin Cities saw more putts inside ten feet made than Harding Park in 2020.  Still despite all of this, the course looked great on TV, looked like a great challenge for the pros, and Kerry Haigh who sets up the course again showed why he is light years ahead of anyone else in setting up golf courses.  The fact that he made the par 4 6th and 16th holes short par 4s in which players could drive it or face the wrath of problems with a poor tee shot was fabulous.  But the best part was the way the fairways were done, with gradual rough and very tight fairways.  In looking at the stats, TPC Harding Park was the 2nd hardest for the year in keeping it in the fairway, Silverado and the Safeway Open had harder fairways to hit.  The only disappointment is that we won’t see another major at Harding Park for a while.  For the USGA all the courses are set through 2027 and with the PGA Championship being played at Olympic in 2028, the odds on the U.S. Open going to Harding Park in the next 8 or 9 years is slim.  As for the PGA Championship, all the courses are named through 2031 so it will be a while for another major to find it’s way to Harding Park.  The good news, rumors have been rapid that basketball star Stephen Curry is involved with getting a PGA Tour event to San Francisco and Harding Park, chances are good it may get one in the fall of 2021, we can only hope.

For some the Wyndham isn’t as daunting as it used to be:

Yes its come to this, the Wyndham Championship is the last regular event before the FedExCup Playoffs which start next week.  In past years it spelled due or die, if you weren’t in the top-125 after this week you would be banished to the Korn Ferry Finals to play for your PGA Tour life for the following year.  For those that left the Wyndham outside the top-175, you were out of luck, no chance of redemption other than waiting for December and trying to earn a spot on the Korn Ferry Tour in their qualifying tournament.

All of this is gone, no matter what happens to a player he will retain his PGA Tour card for 2021.  When Michael Kim tees it up in his 15th event at the Wyndham, he knows he has only one thing to play for, winning.  Kim won the 2018 John Deere Classic and since things have been terrible.  In 44 starts since, he has made just 8 cuts.  In 2020 he has made just one cut and that was in a tournament that didn’t have a cut, the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges and he finished T-69th in a field of 78.  He will tee it up 248th on the FedEx Points list but the good news for Kim, no matter what happens he will have his PGA Tour card for 2021.

Do I like this, not really but we all hate what COVID-19 has done and frankly to be fair with 13 events canceled, the PGA Tour had no choice but to do this.

So for this week, the reason to look at the top-125 is to see who will get into the playoffs.

Right now these players are on the bubble:

• 120 Tom Lewis
• 121 Si Woo Kim
• 122 Fabian Gomez
• 123 Bo Hoag
• 125 Charl Schwartzel

Here are the guys looking to move into the top-125

• 126 Bronson Burgoon
• 127 Chase Seiffert
• 128 Nick Watney
• 129 Zach Johnson
• 130 Kyle Stanley

Here are some marquee players looking to move up

• 131 Shane Lowry
• 133 Rafael Cabrera-Bello
• 134 Sergio Garcia
• 135 Jhonattan Vegas
• 141 Stewart Cink
• 143 Danny Willett
• 149 Aaron Wise
• 152 Ted Potter, Jr.

Tournament information:

Created in 1938, the 2018 edition of the Wyndham Championship will be the 80th tournament. Initially known as the Greater Greensboro Open, the tournament has blossomed from its small roots. The event was the vision of the Greensboro Jaycee’s Chapter, which was but a year old when the idea was conceived. Many were in favor of the creation of a golf tournament; however, no one took steps to create an event until, at a meeting in the summer of 1937, Joseph Bryan put up capital to back the event. The PGA Tour placed the tournament on the 1938 schedule.

If Joseph Bryan is credited with being the backer, then Sam Snead is the owner of the event. His eight victories at Greensboro, including the inaugural event, was a record for most wins by a player at one tournament until Tiger tied him in several events. The Greensboro-based tournament had been played every year except for 1943 and 1944 when the event paused because of World War II.

The tournament name held until 1988 when Kmart became the title sponsor, and the event became known as the Kmart Greater Greensboro Open.  After an eight-year run, Chrysler took over in 1996, and in 2003 the Greater was dropped in favor of Chrysler Classic of Greensboro. That name held until 2006 when Daimler Chrysler pulled out as title sponsor, and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts took over. The 2014 Wyndham Championship has ramifications for the FedEx Cup Championship. The Wyndham Championship is the last event in which golfers, vying for position in the playoff system, can earn points.

For 31 years between 1977 and 2007, Forest Oaks Country Club hosted the event, but it wasn’t considered “fan friendly,” and the course wasn’t very memorable.  One of the reasons that Forest Oaks got the event in 1977 from Sedgefield was because the course was too short and didn’t have the room and parking to handle big crowds.  It was a big disappointment for the members when they lost the event, and many had been lobbying to get it back.  With Wyndham taking over the sponsorship and having it’s offices nearby, and the membership invested $3 million in renovating the course and opened the doors for the return.  When the course was reopened in 2007 to rave reviews, it was decided to change venues for 2008 and has held the event ever since.

Course information:

• Sedgefield Country Club
• Greensboro, N.C.
• 7,127 yards     Par 35-35–70
• Between 1938 and 1976 Sedgefield held the Wyndham Championship 26 times and was considered a tremendous old Donald Ross course.  Unfortunately, the course was short and small for galleries, so the event moved on.  Still, the course was considered a gem, and for years membership tried to lure it back.
• Sedgefield founded in 1925, is located in the rolling hills of Greensboro’s Sedgefield neighborhood. The club has hosted many amateur golf tournaments as well as 32 years of the Wyndham Championship. In addition to its Donald Ross-designed golf course, Sedgefield is perhaps best known for its signature clubhouse, a Tudor-style building housed in the framework of the original Sedgefield Inn built in 1925, the Atlantic Coast Conference was founded in this building in 1953.
• A couple of years ago the club entrusted North Carolina course architect Kris Spence with the job of restoring the course back to its original Donald Ross design while making adjustments to bring the course in line with the modern game.  Spence’s renovation added another 400 yards to Sedgefield, bringing its length to 7,130 yards. Par will be 70 as the 18th hole will be converted into a par 4.
• Emphasis must be put on ball placement in the fairway to get the appropriate angle to the green. The greens at Sedgefield are very undulating and slope from back to front, with many falling off the edges into collection areas.  In 2013 Sedgefield played to a 69.383 scoring average, more than a shot under par for the field.  It ranked as the 23rd hardest of 43 courses for 2013.  In 2016 it played to a scoring average of 69.209 and ranked 38th out of the 48 courses for the year.  Last year the course played very easy to a 68.18 average and ranked 41st hardest course.
• It will be an exciting scenario for the players that a Donald Ross course will be used to get players ready for next month’s Tour Championship that will be played on another Ross course at Eastlake, outside of Atlanta.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Sedgefield

This is based on the most vital stats from Sedgefield C.C., based on data from last year’s Wyndham Championship and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020.
For the third week in a row, the tour plays a course that driving it straight matters a lot, the key to playing well at Sedgefield is to hit it straight and position your drives for the shot into the green. Just like last week at the PGA Championship, hitting fairways and greens is important A look at the list of champions at the Wyndham since the event went back to Sedgefield in 2008 shows that the list of winners are guys that either hit is short and straight, or in the case of hitting it long players like Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, Si Woo Kim, and 2017 winner Henrik Stenson. Last year’s winner J.T. Poston is a short hitter, coming into this week he is T-165th in driving distance. But when he is playing well he hits it straight. Another important aspect of driving for the long hitters, the holes that dogleg need players to lay it up to avoid going through the fairway and it’s always best to be in the fairways. The course is tree line and that is more of a hazard than the rough which is not as penal as it could be. This year it has been rainy, last week Hurricane Isaias sideswiped Greensboro but the area did get some rain with over 3 inches in the last week so the rough will be thicker and the fairways will be soft.
Like any other great Donald Ross course, the greens are tough, first in hitting them if you miss them it’s a hard up and down. The greens are also pretty flat and lots of putts are made, by good and bad putters. So it’s a course that favors short hitters, those that do scramble well and average putters. Last week was a perfect example, winner Collin Morikawa was able to hit 51 of 72 greens which rank T-7th and scramble well getting it up and down 15 of the 21 greens he missed to rank 12th and putt well ranking 1st in Strokes Gained Putting. All of this added up to Morikawa making 18 birdies the best of the week. The same will have to happen this week for someone to win. One thing about Sedgefield, it’s a fun course to play and yes it’s challenging. But it’s also not going to be taxing like TPC Harding Park was last week when it played to a scoring average of 70.755, three-quarters of a shot over par. Last year Sedgefield played to a 68.175 average, almost two shots below par as it was the 41st (out of 49) hardest course on the PGA Tour (which meant that 8 courses played easier on). The bad news for players, after a week of playing with sweaters and temperatures in the 60s and nice conditions, this week it’s back to hot, humid conditions with temperatures in the mid-80s and 60% chance of thunderstorms each day.

So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving and getting the ball on the green makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because at Sedgefield putting the ball in play off the tee is very important, probably one of the most important items on this Donald Ross course. Last year’s winner J.T. Poston was 1st in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, as he was T-2nd in Driving Accuracy and T-1st in Greens in Regulation. Then getting the ball on the greens is important and we all know how hard it is to hit a Donald Ross green. That is why next up is scrambling because the greens are hard to hit when you miss the green you have to get it up and down to win. Last year Sedgefield ranked 44th in Scrambling and our winner Poston proved to be the stud of the week as he was a perfect 10 for 10 as he ranked 1st in scrambling. Our next stat is Strokes Gained Putting which is important, last year Sedgefield was 17th in putting average while Poston was 13th in Strokes Gained Putting, so to play well it’s important to putting well on this course. Last we have birdies, last year 1,880 birdies were made, only three other courses on the PGA Tour last year saw more birdies made. So we are using the Birdie average for our final category.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Scrambler: Who gets it up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained Putting: Look who picks up the most strokes on the greens.

*Birdie average: Players who average the most birdies made per round.

Here are the 144 of 156 players from this year’s field with stats from 2020:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

To link to the other 134 players and there stats for the Wyndham Championship

DraftKings tips

Of the 156 in the field, 123 have played at least once at Sedgefield in the Wyndham Championship:

• Webb Simpson is 72 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Brandt Snedeker is 53 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Billy Horschel is 51 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Harris English is 46 under in 20 rounds, playing 5 years
• Ryan Moore is 45 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Ryan Armour is 41 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Bill Haas is 41 under in 19 rounds, playing 5 years
• Rory Sabbatini is 39 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Scott Brown is 39 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Brice Garnett is 36 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Lucas Glover is 35 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Kyle Stanley is 34 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Jason Dufner is 34 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Jason Kokrak is 34 under in 15 rounds, playing 5 years
• Bud Cauley is 33 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Davis Love III is 32 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Patton Kizzire is 31 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Jim Furyk is 30 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Paul Casey is 30 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Si Woo Kim is 29 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello is 28 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Cameron Percy is 28 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Joaquin Niemann is 26 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Shane Lowry is 25 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Harold Varner III is 25 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Luke Donald is 25 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• J.T. Poston is 24 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
• Peter Malnati is 24 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Denny McCarthy is 23 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Patrick Reed is 23 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Jim Furyk is 30 under playing 2 years (-15.0)
• Paul Casey is 30 under playing 2 years (-15.0)
• Webb Simpson is 72 under playing 5 years (-14.4)
• Rafael Cabrera-Bello is 28 under playing 2 years (-14.0)
• Brandt Snedeker is 53 under playing 4 years (-13.3)
• Rory Sabbatini is 39 under playing 3 years (-13.0)
• Joaquin Niemann is 26 under playing 2 years (-13.0)
• Denny McCarthy is 23 under playing 2 years (-11.5)
• Patrick Reed is 23 under playing 2 years (-11.5)
• Ryan Moore is 45 under playing 4 years (-11.3)
• Bud Cauley is 33 under playing 3 years (-11.0)
• C.T. Pan is 22 under playing 2 years (-11.0)
• Charles Howell III is 22 under playing 2 years (-11.0)
• Davis Love III is 32 under playing 3 years (-10.7)
• Chris Kirk is 21 under playing 2 years (-10.5)
• Corey Conners is 21 under playing 2 years (-10.5)
• Ryan Armour is 41 under playing 4 years (-10.3)
• Patton Kizzire is 31 under playing 3 years (-10.3)
• Billy Horschel is 51 under playing 5 years (-10.2)
• Kevin Kisner is 20 under playing 2 years (-10.0)
• Si Woo Kim is 29 under playing 3 years (-9.7)
• Andrew Landry is 19 under playing 2 years (-9.5)
• Harris English is 46 under playing 5 years (-9.2)
• Brice Garnett is 36 under playing 4 years (-9.0)
• Lucas Glover is 35 under playing 4 years (-8.8)
• Kyle Stanley is 34 under playing 4 years (-8.5)
• Anirban Lahiri is 17 under playing 2 years (-8.5)
• J.J. Spaun is 17 under playing 2 years (-8.5)
• Shane Lowry is 25 under playing 3 years (-8.3)
• Bill Haas is 41 under playing 5 years (-8.2)
• J.T. Poston is 24 under playing 3 years (-8.0)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Brooks Koepka – $11,400
• Webb Simpson – $11,200
• Patrick Reed – $10,700
• Tommy Fleetwood – $10,500
• Paul Casey – $10,3000
• Justin Rose – $9,900
• Harris English – $9,300
• Billy Horschel – $9,100
• Jordan Spieth – $9,000

Very interesting pick, of course, if you can find a way of parlaying Brooks Koepka and Webb Simpson you are OK, but that is very tough.  Yes in a way I like Brooks Koepka at $11,400, but wonder what he is getting out of this.  He is playing because he feels he needs the reps, but I don’t get it.  This would be his sixth straight tournament and yes he is 92nd in the FedExCup so he will play at least next week in Boston.  Maybe he is worried that after Boston he could be off two weeks and only have Safeway before the U.S. Open, who knows what he’s thinking.  But if he gets hot and makes it to the Tour Championship, that would be nine straight with a week to rest before the U.S. Open.  As for the course, it’s good for him.  The last time he played it finished T-6th in 2015 and was T-38th in 2014.  He is a lot of money and he did fold at the PGA Championship, I would not take him this week.  Also one thing, we saw on Saturday all of the treatments he was getting on the course during the PGA Championship, could he be playing too much?  Who knows.  As for Webb Simpson at $11,200 it’s a solid buy.  Simpson loves this course, he won in 2011 and since then in eight starts was out of the top-11 twice.  Last year he was T-2nd.  In 2018 he was T-2nd.  In 2017 he was 3rd so you have to think he will give you a top-five, look for many people betting on him.  Patrick Reed at $10,700 is high but has won in 2013 and played ok with a T-22nd in 2016 and last year.  He was T-13th at the PGA Championship, but we all know he can do anything on a course like this.  He is costly but I can see him being picked.  Tommy Fleetwood is at $10,500 and I have to say he is a big pass for me.  He will be playing this event for the first time and hasn’t played well since getting to this country last month, so don’t take him.  Paul Casey at $10,300 is a great pick and if you can get him with Webb Simpson you will have two great picks.  He was T-13th last year and T-3rd in 2015, but he looked great at the PGA Championship and I can see him playing well in the weeks to come.  Justin Rose at $9,900 is a tough decision, yes he finished 9th at the PGA Championship last week but hit the ball terribly.  I would take a pass, way too high price for the way he is playing.  Harris English at $9,300 is a tough pick, he has made six of six cuts playing at Sedgefield with the best being a T-10th in 2012 and he has finished in the top-20 in his last four starts, best being T-13th at the Memorial.  He was T-19th at the PGA Championship.  Billy Horschel is $9,100 and yes has a good record in this event.  He was T-6th last year and was T-5th in 2016.  He has played well since the break and made his last four cuts in a row, last week was T-43rd at the PGA Championship.  Jordan Spieth is $9,000 and I say no to him.  Yes he was 2nd in 2013, but only played once since and was T-78th last year.  He has made cuts but that is about it, was T-13th at Memorial, but was T-71st at Harding Park last week

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Brendon Todd at $8,900 is a good choice, yes he has never played well at Sedgefield but the last time he played there was in 2016 when he was playing terrible.  I think he can handle the course he has been a focus of the last couple of weeks and just seems to have problems closing the deal, who knows maybe this will be his week.  Sungjae Im at $8,800 is a gamble considering how he has played since the break, but he will break out of this funk and it could be this week.  Was T-6th last year so maybe worth the risk.  Same with Sergio Garcia at $8,500, he missed the cut last week in San Francisco.  But he won this event in 2012 and since was T-29th in 2013 and T-24th in 2018.  Kevin Kisner is at $8,300 and is worth the money.  Has made the cut all five times he has played at Sedgefield, was T-8th in 2014 and T-10th in 2016.  Brandt Snedeker is $8,200 and despite struggling since the break, maybe this will be a good course for him.  He won here in 2018, was T-39th last year and T-3rd in 2016.  Good places usually bring on good scores for certain players and Sedgefield could be good for Kevin.  The same with Joaquin Niemann who is $7,900.  Again hasn’t played that great since the break but has played ok at Sedgefield, was T-13th last year and T-33rd in 2018.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Wyndham

Hard to find some bargains this week, one is Matt Wallace at $7,400, he is playing this for the first time but I like the way he plays on old-time courses, was T-12th at Rocket Mortgage (Donald Ross Course) and was T-4th at Memorial.  Lucas Glover at $7,300 has always been a save bet to make the cut until I say that and what happens, he misses his last two cuts, oh well.  Still, Glover does well on this course, in 15 starts has made the cut 12 times and has been consistent on it.  Jim Furyk at $7,200 is a great buy, he won his first senior event two weeks ago and in 14 starts at Wyndham made 13 cuts including a T-4th the last time he played there in 2018.  Bud Cauley at $7,200 is another good choice, was 3rd at Sedgefield in 2012 and T-10th in 2016.  Of late made three cuts in a row including at T-37th at the PGA Championship.  Sepp Straka is $7,100 and always good at making cuts, played once in this event was T-39th last year.  Another good bargain to make the cut is Denny McCarthy at $6,900.  Best putter on the PGA Tour has made his last four cuts and was T-22nd at Sedgefield last year and T-36th in 2018.  I like Mark Hubbard at $6,700.  He makes lots of cuts, 16 in 21 starts and in three starts at Sedgefield was T-24th in 2017.  Lastly we give you Doug Ghim at $6,300, he was T-48th at Barracuda, T-18th at 3M Open and I like that in his only start at Sedgefield was T-20th in 2018.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Wyndham Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

Sedgefield is a very versatile course. Length is not critical because the course plays at about 7,127 yards, just a notch below average for a PGA Tour event. With length not being a factor, players are afforded the opportunity to use either driver or long iron off the tee. The most critical thing for the field is to manage the slope of the course. To do that, ball control and accuracy are essential.

Now this tournament was made famous by Sam Snead, who won it eight times, the PGA Tour record for the most victories by a player in a single event. Snead captured the inaugural event in 1938, and when he won it for the eighth time in 1965, he became the oldest winner in PGA Tour history at 52 years, 10 months and eight days.

Between 1949 and 1965 Snead was never higher than 8th and won $37,827 or about the same amount that the player in 28th place will win this week.  For the record, if Snead would have played all 17 events at the present purse of $6 million his Greensboro earnings would have been around $8 million.  Oh, Snead is the only winner in Greensboro history to defend his championship but J.T. Poston could join Snead as back to back Wyndham winners but I wouldn’t put much money on this happening.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Length is not an issue so that open’s things up quite a bit. Look for the winner to be someone who doesn’t like to muscle up with the driver, and settles for using a long iron for control. Past winners of the event are some of the best iron players on tour. The likes of Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson, Mark O’Meara, Davis Love III, and Steve Elkington have hoisted the trophy. Look for the winner to be able to manage the surroundings, as the undulations are the most challenging part of the golf course. There is a reason that 2015 winner Davis Love III won at age 51 and that is experience.  The past winners from Sedgefield except for last year’s winner J.T. Poston and Arjun Atwal in 2010 are all experience players so look for someone like that to win.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium at this Donald Ross gem, just like it was last week at TPC Southwind.   Hitting lots of greens goes a long way at the Wyndham Championship.  Look for the winner to hit greens in bunches.
• North Carolina in the summertime is rife with heat and humidity, primarily since it was hot last week. This will be important because the bermudagrass greens will bake making the undulated greens even more challenging. Talking about the weather, this could be a problem for this week.  It will be hot and humid all week at Greensboro, but the major problem is thunderstorms which will be a threat each day.