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BlogThe Northern Trust Preview and Picks

The Northern Trust

August 20th – 23rd, 2020

TPC Boston

Norton, MA

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,308

Purse: $9.5 million

with $1,710,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Patrick Reed

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 72 top-100 players from the latest Official World Rankings and 40 of the top 50. 25 of the top-25 players are in the field:  Those missing from the top-50 of the rankings is #19 Paul Casey, #29 Bernd Wiesberger, #39 Henrik Stenson, #34 Henrik Stenson, #40 Lee Westwood, #41 Danny Willett, #43 Sergio, #44 Francesco Molinari, #46 Matt Wallace, #47 Erik van Rooyen, #49 Christiaan Bezuidenhout and #50 Victor Perez.

Last year there were 76 top-100 players and 41 players from the top-50.

The field includes 124 of the top-125 from the FedEx Cup rankings.  Those not playing are #75 Vaughn Taylor who had to withdraw due to a rib injury.

The field includes 6 past champions: Patrick Reed (2019 & ’16), Bryson DeChambeau (2018), Dustin Johnson (2017 & ’11), Jason Day (2015), Adam Scott (2013) and Matt Kuchar (2010).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in The Northern Trust field is our performance chart listed by the average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at The Northern Trust field in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at The Northern Trust field.  We have also included a special TPC Boston performance chart for players who participated in the Dell Technologies Championship, this is a perfect way to check how players have done on TPC Boston.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for The Northern Trust

Player Wyndham Championship PGA Championship WGC-FedEx St. Jude Barracuda Championship 3M Open Memorial Tournament Workday Charity Open Rocket Mortgage Classic Travelers Championship RBC Heritage Charles Schwab Challenge
Collin Morikawa
(428.33 pts)
DNP Win
(264)
T20
(45)
DNP DNP T48
(1.33)
Win
(88)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T64
(0)
2
(33.33)
Justin Thomas
(338.67 pts)
DNP T37
(26)
Win
(198)
DNP DNP T18
(21.33)
2
(66.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T8
(16.67)
T10
(13.33)
Jason Day
(331.33 pts)
DNP T4
(160)
T6
(90)
DNP DNP T4
(53.33)
T7
(36.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T46
(1.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Dustin Johnson
(298.67 pts)
DNP T2
(200)
T12
(57)
DNP WD
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP Win
(44)
T17
(11)
CUT
(-3.33)
Bryson DeChambeau
(294 pts)
DNP T4
(160)
T30
(30)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP Win
(44)
T6
(20)
T8
(16.67)
T3
(30)
Daniel Berger
(291.33 pts)
DNP T13
(74)
T2
(150)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP T3
(30)
Win
(44)
Tony Finau
(264.67 pts)
DNP T4
(160)
T65
(0)
DNP T3
(60)
8
(33.33)
DNP T53
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
T33
(5.67)
T23
(9)
Xander Schauffele
(258.67 pts)
DNP T10
(80)
T6
(90)
DNP DNP T13
(24.67)
T14
(24)
DNP T20
(10)
T64
(0)
T3
(30)
Matthew Wolff
(225.5 pts)
DNP T4
(160)
T49
(1.5)
DNP T12
(25.33)
T22
(18.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
2
(33.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
54
(0)
Webb Simpson
(223.67 pts)
T3
(90)
T37
(26)
T12
(57)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T8
(16.67)
DNP Win
(44)
CUT
(-3.33)
Scottie Scheffler
(217.83 pts)
DNP T4
(160)
T15
(52.5)
DNP DNP T22
(18.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T55
(0)
Kevin Kisner
(213.17 pts)
T3
(90)
T19
(62)
T25
(37.5)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP 3
(30)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T29
(7)
Paul Casey
(211.67 pts)
T31
(19)
T2
(200)
T67
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T32
(6)
DNP DNP
Billy Horschel
(210.17 pts)
2
(100)
T43
(14)
T25
(37.5)
DNP DNP T13
(24.67)
T7
(36.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T38
(4)
Si Woo Kim
(203.33 pts)
T3
(90)
T13
(74)
DNP T41
(9)
T46
(2.67)
T18
(21.33)
64
(0)
T57
(0)
T11
(13)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Brooks Koepka  (WD)
(193 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T29
(42)
T2
(150)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T62
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP 7
(18.33)
T32
(6)
Richy Werenski
(193 pts)
DNP CUT
(-20)
DNP Win
(132)
T3
(60)
DNP T35
(10)
T21
(9.67)
T46
(1.33)
DNP T58
(0)
Jon Rahm
(184 pts)
DNP T13
(74)
T52
(0)
DNP DNP Win
(88)
T27
(15.33)
DNP T37
(4.33)
T33
(5.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
Patrick Reed
(177.83 pts)
T9
(45)
T13
(74)
T47
(4.5)
DNP DNP T10
(26.67)
T39
(7.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T24
(8.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T7
(18.33)
Alex Noren
(160.67 pts)
DNP T22
(56)
DNP T9
(45)
T3
(60)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T21
(9.67)
T60
(0)
Matthew Fitzpatrick
(160 pts)
DNP CUT
(-20)
T6
(90)
DNP DNP 3
(60)
T27
(15.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T14
(12)
T32
(6)
Phil Mickelson
(155.33 pts)
DNP T71
(0)
T2
(150)
DNP DNP T54
(0)
T58
(0)
DNP T24
(8.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Tom Lewis
(151.33 pts)
T51
(0)
CUT
(-20)
T2
(150)
DNP T32
(12)
DNP DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Doc Redman
(151 pts)
T3
(90)
T29
(42)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T21
(9.67)
T11
(13)
T21
(9.67)
T58
(0)
Harris English
(142.67 pts)
T23
(27)
T19
(62)
DNP DNP T18
(21.33)
T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP DNP T17
(11)
CUT
(-3.33)
Viktor Hovland
(139.67 pts)
DNP T33
(34)
T59
(0)
DNP DNP T48
(1.33)
3
(60)
T12
(12.67)
T11
(13)
T21
(9.67)
T23
(9)
Joel Dahmen
(139.33 pts)
DNP T10
(80)
T20
(45)
DNP DNP 74
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T20
(10)
T48
(0.67)
T19
(10.33)
Ryan Palmer
(136.5 pts)
DNP T43
(14)
T15
(52.5)
DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T8
(16.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
Cameron Champ
(135.5 pts)
DNP T10
(80)
T25
(37.5)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
67
(0)
T12
(12.67)
DNP DNP T14
(12)
Brendon Todd
(133.5 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T17
(66)
T15
(52.5)
DNP DNP T22
(18.67)
DNP T57
(0)
T11
(13)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Abraham Ancer
(124.83 pts)
DNP T43
(14)
T15
(52.5)
DNP DNP T58
(0)
DNP DNP T11
(13)
2
(33.33)
T14
(12)
Louis Oosthuizen
(122 pts)
DNP T33
(34)
T6
(90)
DNP DNP T54
(0)
T65
(0)
DNP T46
(1.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T55
(0)
Jim Herman
(121 pts)
Win
(132)
T77
(0)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T33
(5.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
Hideki Matsuyama
(119.33 pts)
DNP T22
(56)
T20
(45)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T22
(18.67)
T21
(9.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Chez Reavie
(118.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T75
(0)
T6
(90)
DNP DNP T22
(18.67)
T17
(22)
DNP T46
(1.33)
T74
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
Ian Poulter
(115 pts)
DNP T22
(56)
T69
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T5
(46.67)
DNP 64
(0)
T14
(12)
T29
(7)
Shane Lowry
(111 pts)
T23
(27)
T66
(0)
T6
(90)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T39
(7.33)
DNP T60
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Dylan Frittelli
(107.33 pts)
T20
(30)
T33
(34)
DNP DNP T18
(21.33)
T22
(18.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T8
(16.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
Justin Rose
(105.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
9
(90)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T14
(12)
T3
(30)
Russell Henley
(103.67 pts)
T9
(45)
T37
(26)
DNP T51
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP T32
(6)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Harold Varner III
(103.33 pts)
T7
(55)
T29
(42)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
T30
(6.67)
T32
(6)
CUT
(-3.33)
T19
(10.33)
Scott Stallings
(102.33 pts)
T42
(8)
DNP DNP T5
(70)
T62
(0)
DNP T58
(0)
T39
(3.67)
T6
(20)
T48
(0.67)
DNP
Troy Merritt
(98.67 pts)
T59
(0)
CUT
(-20)
DNP 2
(100)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
T22
(18.67)
T8
(16.67)
T60
(0)
T70
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
Patrick Cantlay
(98.17 pts)
DNP T43
(14)
T35
(22.5)
DNP DNP T32
(12)
T7
(36.67)
DNP T11
(13)
DNP DNP
Byeong Hun An
(97.67 pts)
DNP T22
(56)
T12
(57)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T46
(1.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T60
(0)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for The Northern Trust

Player Wyndham Championship PGA Championship WGC-FedEx St. Jude Barracuda Championship 3M Open Memorial Tournament Workday Charity Open Rocket Mortgage Classic Travelers Championship RBC Heritage Charles Schwab Challenge
Wyndham Clark
(-36.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-20)
DNP T35
(15)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T64
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
Scott Piercy
(-30 pts)
T69
(0)
CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T62
(0)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T64
(0)
Carlos Ortiz
(-29.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP DNP T48
(1.33)
T61
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T33
(5.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
Harry Higgs
(-29.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
70
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
T52
(0)
T38
(4)
Sebastian Munoz
(-28 pts)
T74
(0)
CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP DNP T48
(1.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T28
(7.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Brian Stuard
(-24.33 pts)
T51
(0)
CUT
(-20)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
T30
(6.67)
T20
(10)
T52
(0)
T43
(2.33)
Marc Leishman
(-23.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-20)
T52
(0)
DNP DNP T40
(6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T58
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Scott Harrington
(-19.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T40
(6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
T39
(3.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Sung Kang
(-13 pts)
CUT
(-10)
79
(0)
T44
(9)
DNP DNP 73
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T46
(1.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
Zac Blair
(-11.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T35
(15)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
T57
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T55
(0)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Just like that, we are in the last three weeks of the 2019-2020 season. We have come to the FedExCup playoffs with is supposed to tell us who has been the best player of the year, even though there hasn’t been a Masters or a U.S. Open or a British Open or a Players Championship or a WGC-Match Play completed.  Adding to the puzzle, two weeks after the Tour Championship ends the U.S. Open begins at Winged Foot and two months later the Masters will be played so frankly this is not really the “playoffs.”  This season and next will always have an asterisk next to it because this year the PGA Tour will have just one major but next year we will have a year of six majors, yes the U.S. Open and the Masters will be played twice.  Yes, I am confused too.  Frankly, I am not sounding like a politician that lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Drive, by saying that nobody is to blame but in this case that is the truth.  In order to get everything in place, to please everyone and that list is long from sponsors to TV networks to golf courses to municipalities the PGA Tour and other organizations did a great job with the schedule and that means the Masters and U.S. Open will be a part of the PGA Tour’s 2020-2021 season twice.

But back to the playoffs and are they really “playoffs?”  Will the PGA Tour still send out Player of the year ballots the Monday after the Tour Championship?  Do we have any true candidates for Player of the year right now?  I say not really, yes Collin Morikawa has won twice with one being a major, Justin Thomas has won three times with one being a WGC event and Bryson DeChambeau has won once with some of the longest drives that we have ever seen on TV since nobody can watch tournaments anymore.  Yes, it’s been a challenging year, to say the least, but at least we do have some great golf each week and have something to look forward to instead of the same routine so I am happy to have this.  But the player of the year, frankly I give it to the administrators and folks that have run the tours and made sure everything has been safe and we do have golf on a weekly basis.

Tournament information:

This is the 54th annual Northern Trust. Originally dubbed the Westchester Classic, the tournament has undergone a slew of name changes over the years. Just a decade after Jack Nicklaus captured the inaugural tournament in thrilling fashion back in 1967, the tournament became the American Express Westchester Classic.

Three years later, in 1979, American Express pulled out as title sponsor and the event became known as the Manufacturers Hanover Westchester Classic. The name lasted until 1990 when Buick became the title sponsor. In 2005, Barclays took over as chief sponsor of the event and lasted for 12 years.  Northern Trust took over sponsorship in 2017.

The Northern Trust, use to be played the week before or after the U.S. Open in June, was shifted to the middle of August to accommodate being the first event in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

In the first year of the playoffs,  Westchester was used and Steve Stricker won.  Since then the Northern Trust has moved away from Westchester, and it will never go back. Lot’s of reasons for it not ever coming back, but most of them were because of the logistics and not because of the course itself which was great.

The future of the Northern Trust changed a bit with the new schedule coming out for 2019.  With the Dell Technology leaving after 2018, that left the Boston market with no PGA Tour events.  But Northern Trust stepped up and said they would put TPC Boston into its rota and the course will hold the Northern Trust in 2020 and 2022.  At the same time, it was thought that they would use it in a rota with other courses like Bethpage, Ridgewood, and Plainfield.  But that doesn’t seem to be the case, for the time being, the event will rotate between TPC Boston and Liberty National.

Course information:
  • TPC Boston
  • Norton, Ma.
  • 7,308 yards     Par 36-35–71

The TPC of Boston was opened in June of 2002; it was formerly used for charcoal production for the jewelry, brick and iron industries as well as lumber for ship construction.  Arnold Palmer designed the course; it is your typical TPC layout, very long and pretty generous off the tee.  There are several doglegs that can be carried by long hitters so again advantage to those that hit it long.  The greens are plentiful, and several have multiple tiers making putting more challenging.  But over the years the course has changed dramatically.

As players matriculate back to Boston each year for the Dell Technologies Championship, they were met with changes made by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon.  In 2009, changes to the green area and mounding around the 2nd hole.  In 2008 players saw changes to the 4th, 7th, and 16th holes.  The changes weren’t as big, mostly cosmetic like mounds being added to the right side of nine.  Also, changes were made to the chipping areas around No. 1 and No. 10 greens. Bunkers also were altered in shape at the fourth and 11th holes. At the latter, a 230-yard par-3, an island of turf was installed in the middle of the sizeable front-right bunker.

The players loved the changes made for the 2007 event, most of them liked making the 4th hole a possible drivable par 4. It’s a step in the right direction because in previous years they have been very lukewarm on the Arnold Palmer design course.

Little changes have been made to the courses each year after, the last time the course was used on the PGA Tour during the Dell Technologies in 2018 the course played to a 70.14 average and was the 27th hardest course on tour (out of 51 courses)

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Boston

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Boston, based on data from the 2018 Dell Technologies when the course was last used on the PGA Tour and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020.

The good news, the PGA Tour returns to an old friend the TPC Boston. A beloved course which was the home for 16 years of the Deutsche Bank and later the Dell Technologies Championship, the former FedExCup playoff event was a casualty of needing a sponsor at the same time that the PGA Tour was in need to drop a playoff event so it was an easy event to eliminate. If anything good came out of the whole mess was that the folks at Northern Trust realized the value of not only the course but the area which is between Boston and Provenance, Rhode Island. The venue fits perfectly into what Northern Trust wants so they put it into the rotation and it will be played every other year, so it’s a win-win for everyone and even though it’s not perfect at least TPC Boston will be in the Playoffs every other year.
TPC Boston is an Arnold Palmer design that has been reworked by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon. The course has a touch of links-style as it plays firm and fast, but it’s still a course for long hitters as in its 16-year history players like Adam Scott, Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Charley Hoffman, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, and Justin Thomas have won on it. Its last champion was Bryson DeChambeau in 2018, just before he went on his transformation into being the longest hitter of the ball today, back then DeChambeau hit the ball a long way. So with that, it tells you something about the course, which is that all of these players like to hit it long, so TPC Boston is for those that bomb it. On the other end of the spectrum, short hitters like Chris Kirk, Olin Browne, Webb Simpson, and Steve Stricker have won, mainly because of their impressive around the green game. Still, the focus should be on long hitters and ball strikers having a significant advantage. Of the 16 champions, ten of them ranked in the top-ten in greens hit, so if a long hitter is on his game, he does have a significant advantage. So should you stop reading right now and pick say Bryson DeChambeau? Probably not, if we have learned one lesson since the years of Tiger Woods dominating every event, there are a bunch of guys that can win from week to week. An example of that is Jim Herman who won last week at Wyndham. Or Collin Morikawa who won the PGA Championship or even Justin Thomas who won the WGC-FedEx St. Jude the week before. The point it, these guys are so good and there are so many of them from week to week you just don’t know who is going to win.
So that doesn’t mean to hand any one of them the trophy right now, anything can and will happen in the next seven days. One thing historically about TPC Boston you have never seen a poor putter win here, the greens are 5,800 square feet and have a lot of undulation in them so look for a player who is in the zone inside of ten feet, like DeChambeau, Rahm or Thomas. Guys like Collin Morikawa who are weak in putting will struggle.
Another aspect of TPC Boston, scores are generally low, and the big reason is the par 4s. In 2018 the last time the course was played they averaged 3.99 as only ten courses had easier par 4s. Of the 11 par 4s, six of them play under par, and the toughest par 4 is the 6th hole playing at a 4.038 clip which means with all of the holes on the PGA Tour it’s the 410th hardest of the 918 holes played in 2018.
So look for players that hit it long, hit lots of greens, and are in putts inside of ten feet. Now on the other realm of the spectrum, the par 5s are some of the toughest on the PGA Tour. In 2018 they played to a 4.68 scoring average and ranked 23rd, while they ranked T-13th on tour in 2017.
The great news is the perfect weather in Boston for the whole week, look for beach type of conditions with temperatures in the mid-80s and low humidity each day, perfect for scoring and for everyone to enjoy themselves.

So in looking at our four categories, our first is plain and simple, driving distance. This week is about raw power and brute, getting it out there as far as you can so that you have the easiest shot into the green. Hard to believe in 2018 the winner Bryson DeChambeau was 10th in this stat with an average drive of 311.8 yards as Brooks Koepka led the week with an average drive of 325.5 yards. Now the previous winner in 2017 Justin Thomas was 3rd in driving distance while in 2016 Rory McIlroy led the stat with an average drive of 312.9 yards.
Our second stat is greens in Regulation, again a nice simple stat in which it’s the number of greens a player hit in regulation. DeChambeau hit 54 of 72 greens in regulation which ranked T-7th as Rafael Cabrera-Bello, who finished T-7th lead hitting 58 of 72 greens. In 2017 Justin Thomas hit 51 greens and ranked T-13th and in 2016 Rory McIlroy hit 53 and ranked T-18th.
Our third stat is Strokes Gained Putting and for DeChambeau it was determined that he gained 4.876 strokes in the four rounds, thus he ranked 4th in that category. He had a total of 60 putts of 7 putt and under and only missed four which went into the equation in helping determine his final number.
Out fourth stat is par 4 average and the course played to a 3.99 average on the par 4s, the 41st hardest on the PGA Tour (10 were easier) while DeChambeau played the par 4s in 6 under which wasn’t that great when you see that C.T. Pan was 11 under on them.

*Driving Distance: The average drive based on all the holes played.

*Greens in Regulation: A nice simple stat in which it’s the number of greens a player hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

*Par 4 Average: How players do on par 4s, who plays them the best.

Of the 125 players in the field, 124 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2020 (Tiger Woods is the only one without stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to the other 114 players stats for the Northern Trust

 

DraftKings tips

Of the 124 in the field, 84 have played at least once at TPC Boston between 2015 and 2018 in the Dell Technologies:
  • Patrick Reed is 34 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Paul Casey is 33 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Hideki Matsuyama is 29 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Gary Woodland is 28 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Dustin Johnson is 27 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Rickie Fowler is 26 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
  • Jordan Spieth is 25 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Louis Oosthuizen is 24 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Rory McIlroy is 24 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Emiliano Grillo is 22 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
  • Justin Rose is 21 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Justin Thomas is 20 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Bryson DeChambeau is 19 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
  • Adam Hadwin is 19 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
  • Marc Leishman is 19 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Jon Rahm is 16 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
  • Patrick Cantlay is 15 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
  • Kevin Kisner is 15 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Si Woo Kim is 14 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
  • Brian Stuard is 13 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
  • Phil Mickelson is 13 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Daniel Berger is 12 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Matt Kuchar is 12 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Abraham Ancer is 11 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
  • Brian Harman is 11 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Jason Day is 11 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
  • Brice Garnett is 10 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
  • Tyrrell Hatton is 10 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
  • Harris English is 10 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
  • Adam Scott is 10 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years
*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)
  • Bryson DeChambeau is -19 under, playing 2 years (-9.5)
  • Rickie Fowler is -26 under, playing 3 years (-8.7)
  • Patrick Reed is -34 under, playing 4 years (-8.5)
  • Paul Casey is -33 under, playing 4 years (-8.3)
  • Jon Rahm is -16 under, playing 2 years (-8.0)
  • Patrick Cantlay is -15 under, playing 2 years (-7.5)
  • Hideki Matsuyama is -29 under, playing 4 years (-7.3)
  • Emiliano Grillo is -22 under, playing 3 years (-7.3)
  • Gary Woodland is -28 under, playing 4 years (-7.0)
  • Dustin Johnson is -27 under, playing 4 years (-6.8)
  • Brian Stuard is -13 under, playing 2 years (-6.5)
  • Jordan Spieth is -25 under, playing 4 years (-6.3)
  • Adam Hadwin is -19 under, playing 3 years (-6.3)
  • Louis Oosthuizen is -24 under, playing 4 years (-6.0)
  • Rory McIlroy is -24 under, playing 4 years (-6.0)
  • Justin Rose is -21 under, playing 4 years (-5.3)
  • Justin Thomas is -20 under, playing 4 years (-5.0)
  • Harris English is -10 under, playing 2 years (-5.0)
  • Marc Leishman is -19 under, playing 4 years (-4.8)
  • Si Woo Kim is -14 under, playing 3 years (-4.7)
  • Kevin Kisner is -15 under, playing 4 years (-3.8)
  • Phil Mickelson is -13 under, playing 4 years (-3.3)
  • Adam Scott is -10 under, playing 3 years (-3.3)
  • Daniel Berger is -12 under, playing 4 years (-3.0)
  • Matt Kuchar is -12 under, playing 4 years (-3.0)
  • Brandt Snedeker is -9 under, playing 3 years (-3.0)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

  • Justin Thomas – $11,300
  • Bryce DeChambeau – $11,100
  • Rory McIlroy – $10,800
  • Dustin Johnson – $10,400
  • Collin Morikawa – $10,200
  • Jon Rahm – $10,000
  • Xander Schauffele – $9,700
  • Webb Simpson – $9,500
  • Jason Day – $9,300
  • Patrick Cantlay – $9,200
  • Brooks Koepka – $9.100 (Has withdrawn)
  • Patrick Reed – $9,000

There are two important things to think about in making your picks, one takes a player that hits it far, which is a big advantage.  But the second thing is a must, of all the champions at TPC Boston there has never been a player win that was a bad putter. We have seen short hitters win at TPC Boston but never poor putter, so that is something to look for.  So right off the bat Justin Thomas at $11,300 fills two of our top items, hits it far and putts ok and has played good.  He has an added notch to his list as a past winner at TPC Boston so yes a good pick.  But the best of them all is Bryce DeChambeau who at $11,100 will probably be a popular pick.  With his newfound length since he last played here in 2018 when he won, he is even more powerful and should be even more dangerous in his quest to win again.  Rory McIlroy is $10,800 and many will brush away from him because he seems lost.  He’s not, just a bit out of rhythm and I can say this, it’s not going to take much to get him back and a trip or two around TPC Boston could help ease the pain of his out of sync golf, anything can happen this week.  Now for Collin Morikawa at $10,200 I have a problem.  Yes two weeks ago I was very high on him, now I am not just because this is not a course that he will putt well on and I would not touch him, these are not friendly greens for him.  Dustin Johnson at $10,400 will be a bit of the same, he has played the course a lot and can’t seem to find a way to win and with his great game you would think this would be easy for him and it’s not, so take a pass on Dustin this week.  Now Jon Rahm at $10,000 is a different story, I am all over this kid and think he will have a great week.  Remember this he is 8th in driving distance and 31st in strokes gained putting, a good combination for this course.  Also, like Xander Schauffele at $9,700 who is 13th in driving distance and 55th in strokes gained putting.  As for Webb Simpson at $9,500 he is a great choice not for hitting it long, but the past champion can putt he is 12th this year in strokes gained putting so yes we like him.  Jason Day at $9,300 is a hard choice, his stats are borderline, he is 61st in driving distance and 48th in putting, but since there are so many others around him with better stats, they are better choices.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,200 is a good choice, he hits it a long way and is 11th in driving distance and 57th in strokes gained putting.  The only problem with Cantlay he has been inconsistent since the break and seems to have that one off round per tournament.  Now talk about inconsistent and Brooks Koepka is top of the heap, he is $9,100 this week and frankly save yourself some nervous times and take a rest on him for a bit.  He is no longer a problem since he has withdrawn.  Patrick Reed at $9,000 is a player to think about, he is a great putter that has done really well in his last four starts but nobody seems to really care or look.  Remember this, he was T-6th in 2017, T-5th in 2016 and T-4th in 2015 so you may want to think about the defending champion this week.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,800 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Lot’s of really good choices, first many will think Daniel Berger at $8,900 but I say save the money.  He doesn’t hit it far enough, yes great putter but his game is not great outside of the great south, his best finish at TPC Boston is a T-12th in four starts so I say no.  Tony Finau at $8,800 is a good choice, hits it long and putts ok, remember this the last time he played at TPC Boston was T-4th in 2018 so yes take him.  Tiger Woods is $8,700 and he is a possibility.  Yes his putter was balky in San Francisco, but I think it will show improvement this week, plus he has a lot of history on this course.  Many will think that Paul Casey at $8,500 is a good choice especially when you see him finish 2nd in 2016 and T-4th in 2017 but I say his putting is terrible this year so take a pass on him.  But do think about Adam Scott at $8,400.  He was the first winner at TPC Boston in 2003 and has always done well on the course, he played well at the beginning of the year and think he will shine during the playoffs.  Tommy Fleetwood at $8,300 is appealing, he hasn’t played that great since the break and I am staying away from him probably for the length of the playoffs.  But I won’t stay away from Billy Horschel at $7,900 who was runner-up at the Wyndham last week and was T-2nd at TPC Boston in 2014.  Many will take Jordan Spieth at $7,800, I shake my head and say he really isn’t worth the trouble, yes he was 2nd at TPC Boston in 2017 but you be better off with Matthew Wolff at $7,800.  He is 6th in driving distance and 75th in Strokes Gained Putting and despite never playing at TPC Boston was great at TPC Harding Park finishing T-4th two weeks ago.  Now two gambles of folks at $7,600 are Kevin Kisner and Cameron Champ.  Both are the complete opposite, Kevin is 178th in driving while Cameron is 2nd, Kevin is 19th in putting while Champ is 109th.  Can the stats work for them, possibly?  I like that Kisner was T-19th at the PGA Championship and T-3rd at the Wyndham but his record is spotty at TPC Boston, his best was T-12th in four tries.  For Champ was T-10th at the PGA Championship.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Northern Trust

The pickings for bargains are slim this week, one that my eye sees is Denny McCarthy at $6,700, he is the best putter on tour and finished T-9th at Wyndham.  The rest of the pickings is not very good.

 

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at TPC Boston:

The key stat for the winner:
  • Now in past years, it was evident that this course was a long hitters haven.  In 2018 we had Bryson DeChambeau and the year before it was Justin Thomas, in 2016 Rory McIlroy and in 2015 we had Rickie Fowler win, all players that hit it long.  In 2014 & ’13 Chris Kirk and Henrik Stenson won, both who are in the middle of all driving distance stats in 2012, we had Rory McIlroy, in 2010 we had Charley Hoffman.  In 2008, it was Vijay Singh while in 2007, it was Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2006, all very long hitters  Still don’t rule out the short hitters, look at 2009 winner Steve Stricker, the same with Webb Simpson in 2011.  But he isn’t the only one, the 2005 champion Olin Browne is one of the shorter hitters on tour and 2003 runner-up Rocco Mediate is also short.  In the same breath, it’s safe to say that accuracy doesn’t pay on this course.  In its 16 years of being played, of the 191 players that have finished in the top ten of the tournament, only 48 have been in the top ten in driving accuracy.  One more key driving accuracy stat, of the 51 courses used on the PGA Tour it ranked 28th in driving accuracy in 2018 which meant that you can be wild on this course.  Or to put it another way, this is a bombers course.
  • Looking at the stats from its 16-year history, look for those with sharp iron games to produce the best score.  Look for a smart player that doesn’t attack the holes but plays placement golf to win.  Of the 16 winners, three led the greens hit category (winner Henrik Stenson led in 2013, Vijay Singh in 2004 & Adam Scott in 2003) while the first eight of nine winners were in the top ten.  In 2018 Bryson DeChambeau was T-7th while in 2017 Justin Thomas was T-13th while in 2016 Rory McIlroy was T-18th in greens hit.
  • The greens are 5,800 square feet, which is about average on the PGA Tour. They have a lot of undulation in them, and that could be one of the reasons why winners haven’t dominated the putting stats.  But the popular folklore on TPC Boston is, “you can hit it long or hit it short and win at TPC Boston, but if you don’t putt well, don’t expect to win at TPC Boston.”
  • Looking for that one stat that jumps up and grabs you?  Par 4 average is the key here, TPC Boston is one of the easiest in par 4s.  Last year it was T-41st with a 3.99 average while in 2017 it’s par 4s played to a 4.02 average and ranked T-31st, in 2016 it was T-43rd with a 3.97 average on its par 4s so look for players that play well on par 4s.  Last year DeChambeau played the par 4s in 6 under, in 2017 Thomas was 14 under, in 2016 McIlroy was even par, in 2015 Rickie Fowler was 9 under, Chris Kirk was 6 under on the Par 4s, in 2013 Henrik Stenson was 14 under par.
  • Interesting to note that Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas won the Dell Technologies the month after taking the PGA Championship.  It’s also interesting to note that Dell Technologies winners Woods, Singh and Adam Scott have also been runner-up here.  As for this year’s PGA Champion Collin Morikawa, you have to think he is chomping at the bit for Thursday’s opening round.
  • Scrambling is a significant stat and one to look at.  Here is the rank of Dell Technologies Championship winners between 2007-2018.
  •  Year    Winner    Scrambling (rank)
  •  2018    Bryson DeChambeau  61.11% (T-44th)
  •  2017    Justin Thomas    95.24% (1st)
  •  2016    Rory McIlroy    63.16% (41st)
  •  2015    Rickie Fowler    78.95% (1st)
  •  2014    Chris Kirk    80.77% (4)
  •  2013    Henrik Stenson    81.82% (T-6)
  •  2012    Rory McIlroy    70.83% (10)
  •  2011    Webb Simpson    76.00% (5)
  •  2010    Charley Hoffman    82.35% (2)
  •  2009    Steve Stricker    73.91% (10)
  •  2008    Vijay Singh    76.92% (4)
  •  2007    Phil Mickelson    86.36% (1)

Lastly, weather will be perfect for this week

 

 

Who to watch for at The Northern Trust

(Important note:  Many have sent me emails saying they are confused saying that they think these results below are for players on TPC Boston, But they aren’t.  The Northern Trust moves from course to course, here is a list of the venues: 2019-Liberty National; 2018 Ridgewood C.C.; 2017 Glen Oaks Club; 2016 Bethpage State Park; 2015 Plainfield C.C.; 2014 Ridgewood C.C; 2013 Liberty National; 2012 Bethpage State Park; 2011 Plainfield C.C.; 2010 Ridgewood.  Hope this makes it less confusing.)

Best Bets:

Bryson DeChambeau

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T24 Win CUT

There is nobody all year long that wasn’t any more ready to win on a course that wasn’t any better for a players game than TPC Boston is perfect for Bryson this week. He has so many advantages that no other player has, will be hard to beat this week.

Jon Rahm

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T3 CUT T3

I can see him beating Bryson because he is great on courses with limited and no round. His putting is good and coming into the playoffs with some momentum.

Justin Thomas

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T12 T8 T6 T10 T16

Everyone says he is the logical choice, a past winner at this course has three wins this season has everything going in the right direction to have a great playoff.

Best of the rest:

Webb Simpson

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T18 T28 T6 T48 T30 CUT T15 CUT T10 T36 8

His the best of the non-superstars of golf, always solid, nothing flashy but always seems to get the job done. A past winner at TPC Boston was T-3rd last week at the Wyndham, would really love to upstage and win the FedExCup playoffs.

Dustin Johnson

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T24 T11 Win T18 T9 CUT T3 Win T9 T15 CUT

Yes it’s been a difficult year but at the same time not a bad year with the win at the Travelers, but a win of the FedExCup playoffs would wipe away all of the bad parts of things.

Jason Day

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
CUT T20 T6 T4 Win T2 T25 T24 T13 T5 T12 T31

The same with him, the first part of the year was nothing but worry over his back, since the break, his back seems to be find and he has played well. TPC Boston has seen some good play, was T-2nd in 2010, T-3rd in 2011, his game seems to be getting better and Day could peak this week so watch him.

Adam Scott

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
5 T5 T4 CUT T15 Win 62 T67 T9 T58 CUT

Was the first winner at TPC Boston in 2003. Played for the first time in San Francisco and it wasn’t bad, look for him to be better this week.

Guys that could surprise us this week

Rory McIlroy

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T6 T34 T31 T22 T19 T24 T56

Won at TPC Boston in 2016 and 2012, was T-5th in 2014. Coming to a course that he has done well on sometimes can unite and bring back that missing spark, something that McIlroy has been searching for. His game is not that far off and he is very close to playing well, which could happen this week.

Xander Schauffele

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
CUT CUT T17

Been very steady since the break, in seven starts, has not missed the cut and been in the top-20 six times, was T-6th in WGC-FedEx St Jude, T-10th PGA Championship.

Tony Finau

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T30 2 T54 12 T16

Has the game but may not have the heart to do it down the stretch. Has been knocking on victories door, was 8th at Memorial with 78 in the final round, was T-3rd at 3M Open and T-4th at PGA Championship. Played at TPC Boston four times and the last in 2018 was T-4th.

Paul Casey

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T60 5 T31 T39 T22 T12 T7

Was 2nd at TPC Boston in 2016, T-4th in 2017. Was T-2nd at PGA Championship looking like he was ready to win, was T-31st at Wyndham. Just worried that he isn’t putting very well.

Billy Horschel

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T21 T3 CUT T13 CUT CUT CUT

Was 2nd last week at Wyndham and was T-2nd at TPC Boston in 2014, could surprise us.

Long shots that could come through:

Tiger Woods

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
WD T40 T2 T38 T12 T2

Yes his putter was balky in San Francisco, but I think it will show improvement this week, plus he has a lot of history on this course including a win in 2006, T-2nd in 2007 and 3rd in 2012.

Matthew Wolff

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T71

Has never played at TPC Boston, but his game suits the course perfectly. Was T-4th at the PGA Championship shooting a final round 65, was 2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Abraham, Ancer

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
First time playing in this event

T-7th in his only TPC Boston start in 2018, was leading going into final round shot 73. Has made six cuts since the break, best was runner-up at Heritage, T-43rd at PGA Championship.

Want him to do well but really worried about his putting

Collin Morikawa

2020 ’19 ’18 ’17 ’16 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08
T52

Has never played at TPC Boston, the course could be a problem for him since he doesn’t hit it long, is 85th in driving distance of all drives this year, and he is 140th in Strokes Gained Putting which could prove fatal for him. Know he was first in putting in San Francisco, but this is a different week almost 3,000 miles and a different ocean away. Hope he proves me wrong.

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