BlogThe Northern Trust Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Just like that, we are in the last three weeks of the 2019-2020 season. We have come to the FedExCup playoffs with is supposed to tell us who has been the best player of the year, even though there hasn’t been a Masters or a U.S. Open or a British Open or a Players Championship or a WGC-Match Play completed.  Adding to the puzzle, two weeks after the Tour Championship ends the U.S. Open begins at Winged Foot and two months later the Masters will be played so frankly this is not really the “playoffs.”  This season and next will always have an asterisk next to it because this year the PGA Tour will have just one major but next year we will have a year of six majors, yes the U.S. Open and the Masters will be played twice.  Yes, I am confused too.  Frankly, I am not sounding like a politician that lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Drive, by saying that nobody is to blame but in this case that is the truth.  In order to get everything in place, to please everyone and that list is long from sponsors to TV networks to golf courses to municipalities the PGA Tour and other organizations did a great job with the schedule and that means the Masters and U.S. Open will be a part of the PGA Tour’s 2020-2021 season twice.

But back to the playoffs and are they really “playoffs?”  Will the PGA Tour still send out Player of the year ballots the Monday after the Tour Championship?  Do we have any true candidates for Player of the year right now?  I say not really, yes Collin Morikawa has won twice with one being a major, Justin Thomas has won three times with one being a WGC event and Bryson DeChambeau has won once with some of the longest drives that we have ever seen on TV since nobody can watch tournaments anymore.  Yes, it’s been a challenging year, to say the least, but at least we do have some great golf each week and have something to look forward to instead of the same routine so I am happy to have this.  But the player of the year, frankly I give it to the administrators and folks that have run the tours and made sure everything has been safe and we do have golf on a weekly basis.

Tournament information:

This is the 54th annual Northern Trust. Originally dubbed the Westchester Classic, the tournament has undergone a slew of name changes over the years. Just a decade after Jack Nicklaus captured the inaugural tournament in thrilling fashion back in 1967, the tournament became the American Express Westchester Classic.

Three years later, in 1979, American Express pulled out as title sponsor and the event became known as the Manufacturers Hanover Westchester Classic. The name lasted until 1990 when Buick became the title sponsor. In 2005, Barclays took over as chief sponsor of the event and lasted for 12 years.  Northern Trust took over sponsorship in 2017.

The Northern Trust, use to be played the week before or after the U.S. Open in June, was shifted to the middle of August to accommodate being the first event in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

In the first year of the playoffs,  Westchester was used and Steve Stricker won.  Since then the Northern Trust has moved away from Westchester, and it will never go back. Lot’s of reasons for it not ever coming back, but most of them were because of the logistics and not because of the course itself which was great.

The future of the Northern Trust changed a bit with the new schedule coming out for 2019.  With the Dell Technology leaving after 2018, that left the Boston market with no PGA Tour events.  But Northern Trust stepped up and said they would put TPC Boston into its rota and the course will hold the Northern Trust in 2020 and 2022.  At the same time, it was thought that they would use it in a rota with other courses like Bethpage, Ridgewood, and Plainfield.  But that doesn’t seem to be the case, for the time being, the event will rotate between TPC Boston and Liberty National.

Course information:

• TPC Boston
• Norton, Ma.
• 7,308 yards     Par 36-35–71

The TPC of Boston was opened in June of 2002; it was formerly used for charcoal production for the jewelry, brick and iron industries as well as lumber for ship construction.  Arnold Palmer designed the course; it is your typical TPC layout, very long and pretty generous off the tee.  There are several doglegs that can be carried by long hitters so again advantage to those that hit it long.  The greens are plentiful, and several have multiple tiers making putting more challenging.  But over the years the course has changed dramatically.

As players matriculate back to Boston each year for the Dell Technologies Championship, they were met with changes made by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon.  In 2009, changes to the green area and mounding around the 2nd hole.  In 2008 players saw changes to the 4th, 7th, and 16th holes.  The changes weren’t as big, mostly cosmetic like mounds being added to the right side of nine.  Also, changes were made to the chipping areas around No. 1 and No. 10 greens. Bunkers also were altered in shape at the fourth and 11th holes. At the latter, a 230-yard par-3, an island of turf was installed in the middle of the sizeable front-right bunker.

The players loved the changes made for the 2007 event, most of them liked making the 4th hole a possible drivable par 4. It’s a step in the right direction because in previous years they have been very lukewarm on the Arnold Palmer design course.

Little changes have been made to the courses each year after, the last time the course was used on the PGA Tour during the Dell Technologies in 2018 the course played to a 70.14 average and was the 27th hardest course on tour (out of 51 courses)

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Boston

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Boston, based on data from the 2018 Dell Technologies when the course was last used on the PGA Tour and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020.

The good news, the PGA Tour returns to an old friend the TPC Boston. A beloved course which was the home for 16 years of the Deutsche Bank and later the Dell Technologies Championship, the former FedExCup playoff event was a casualty of needing a sponsor at the same time that the PGA Tour was in need to drop a playoff event so it was an easy event to eliminate. If anything good came out of the whole mess was that the folks at Northern Trust realized the value of not only the course but the area which is between Boston and Provenance, Rhode Island. The venue fits perfectly into what Northern Trust wants so they put it into the rotation and it will be played every other year, so it’s a win-win for everyone and even though it’s not perfect at least TPC Boston will be in the Playoffs every other year.
TPC Boston is an Arnold Palmer design that has been reworked by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon. The course has a touch of links-style as it plays firm and fast, but it’s still a course for long hitters as in its 16-year history players like Adam Scott, Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Charley Hoffman, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, and Justin Thomas have won on it. Its last champion was Bryson DeChambeau in 2018, just before he went on his transformation into being the longest hitter of the ball today, back then DeChambeau hit the ball a long way. So with that, it tells you something about the course, which is that all of these players like to hit it long, so TPC Boston is for those that bomb it. On the other end of the spectrum, short hitters like Chris Kirk, Olin Browne, Webb Simpson, and Steve Stricker have won, mainly because of their impressive around the green game. Still, the focus should be on long hitters and ball strikers having a significant advantage. Of the 16 champions, ten of them ranked in the top-ten in greens hit, so if a long hitter is on his game, he does have a significant advantage. So should you stop reading right now and pick say Bryson DeChambeau? Probably not, if we have learned one lesson since the years of Tiger Woods dominating every event, there are a bunch of guys that can win from week to week. An example of that is Jim Herman who won last week at Wyndham. Or Collin Morikawa who won the PGA Championship or even Justin Thomas who won the WGC-FedEx St. Jude the week before. The point it, these guys are so good and there are so many of them from week to week you just don’t know who is going to win.
So that doesn’t mean to hand any one of them the trophy right now, anything can and will happen in the next seven days. One thing historically about TPC Boston you have never seen a poor putter win here, the greens are 5,800 square feet and have a lot of undulation in them so look for a player who is in the zone inside of ten feet, like DeChambeau, Rahm or Thomas. Guys like Collin Morikawa who are weak in putting will struggle.
Another aspect of TPC Boston, scores are generally low, and the big reason is the par 4s. In 2018 the last time the course was played they averaged 3.99 as only ten courses had easier par 4s. Of the 11 par 4s, six of them play under par, and the toughest par 4 is the 6th hole playing at a 4.038 clip which means with all of the holes on the PGA Tour it’s the 410th hardest of the 918 holes played in 2018.
So look for players that hit it long, hit lots of greens, and are in putts inside of ten feet. Now on the other realm of the spectrum, the par 5s are some of the toughest on the PGA Tour. In 2018 they played to a 4.68 scoring average and ranked 23rd, while they ranked T-13th on tour in 2017.
The great news is the perfect weather in Boston for the whole week, look for beach type of conditions with temperatures in the mid-80s and low humidity each day, perfect for scoring and for everyone to enjoy themselves.

So in looking at our four categories, our first is plain and simple, driving distance. This week is about raw power and brute, getting it out there as far as you can so that you have the easiest shot into the green. Hard to believe in 2018 the winner Bryson DeChambeau was 10th in this stat with an average drive of 311.8 yards as Brooks Koepka led the week with an average drive of 325.5 yards. Now the previous winner in 2017 Justin Thomas was 3rd in driving distance while in 2016 Rory McIlroy led the stat with an average drive of 312.9 yards.
Our second stat is greens in Regulation, again a nice simple stat in which it’s the number of greens a player hit in regulation. DeChambeau hit 54 of 72 greens in regulation which ranked T-7th as Rafael Cabrera-Bello, who finished T-7th lead hitting 58 of 72 greens. In 2017 Justin Thomas hit 51 greens and ranked T-13th and in 2016 Rory McIlroy hit 53 and ranked T-18th.
Our third stat is Strokes Gained Putting and for DeChambeau it was determined that he gained 4.876 strokes in the four rounds, thus he ranked 4th in that category. He had a total of 60 putts of 7 putt and under and only missed four which went into the equation in helping determine his final number.
Out fourth stat is par 4 average and the course played to a 3.99 average on the par 4s, the 41st hardest on the PGA Tour (10 were easier) while DeChambeau played the par 4s in 6 under which wasn’t that great when you see that C.T. Pan was 11 under on them.

*Driving Distance: The average drive based on all the holes played.

*Greens in Regulation: A nice simple stat in which it’s the number of greens a player hit in regulation.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

*Par 4 Average: How players do on par 4s, who plays them the best.

Of the 125 players in the field, 124 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2020 (Tiger Woods is the only one without stats:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to the other 114 players stats for the Northern Trust

DraftKings tips

Of the 124 in the field, 84 have played at least once at TPC Boston between 2015 and 2018 in the Dell Technologies:

• Patrick Reed is 34 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Paul Casey is 33 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Hideki Matsuyama is 29 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Gary Woodland is 28 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Dustin Johnson is 27 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Rickie Fowler is 26 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Jordan Spieth is 25 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Louis Oosthuizen is 24 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Rory McIlroy is 24 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Emiliano Grillo is 22 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Justin Rose is 21 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Justin Thomas is 20 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Bryson DeChambeau is 19 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Adam Hadwin is 19 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Marc Leishman is 19 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Jon Rahm is 16 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Patrick Cantlay is 15 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Kevin Kisner is 15 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Si Woo Kim is 14 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Brian Stuard is 13 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Phil Mickelson is 13 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Daniel Berger is 12 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Matt Kuchar is 12 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Abraham Ancer is 11 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Brian Harman is 11 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Jason Day is 11 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Brice Garnett is 10 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Tyrrell Hatton is 10 under in 4 rounds, playing 1 year
• Harris English is 10 under in 8 rounds, playing 2 years
• Adam Scott is 10 under in 10 rounds, playing 3 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Bryson DeChambeau is -19 under, playing 2 years (-9.5)
• Rickie Fowler is -26 under, playing 3 years (-8.7)
• Patrick Reed is -34 under, playing 4 years (-8.5)
• Paul Casey is -33 under, playing 4 years (-8.3)
• Jon Rahm is -16 under, playing 2 years (-8.0)
• Patrick Cantlay is -15 under, playing 2 years (-7.5)
• Hideki Matsuyama is -29 under, playing 4 years (-7.3)
• Emiliano Grillo is -22 under, playing 3 years (-7.3)
• Gary Woodland is -28 under, playing 4 years (-7.0)
• Dustin Johnson is -27 under, playing 4 years (-6.8)
• Brian Stuard is -13 under, playing 2 years (-6.5)
• Jordan Spieth is -25 under, playing 4 years (-6.3)
• Adam Hadwin is -19 under, playing 3 years (-6.3)
• Louis Oosthuizen is -24 under, playing 4 years (-6.0)
• Rory McIlroy is -24 under, playing 4 years (-6.0)
• Justin Rose is -21 under, playing 4 years (-5.3)
• Justin Thomas is -20 under, playing 4 years (-5.0)
• Harris English is -10 under, playing 2 years (-5.0)
• Marc Leishman is -19 under, playing 4 years (-4.8)
• Si Woo Kim is -14 under, playing 3 years (-4.7)
• Kevin Kisner is -15 under, playing 4 years (-3.8)
• Phil Mickelson is -13 under, playing 4 years (-3.3)
• Adam Scott is -10 under, playing 3 years (-3.3)
• Daniel Berger is -12 under, playing 4 years (-3.0)
• Matt Kuchar is -12 under, playing 4 years (-3.0)
• Brandt Snedeker is -9 under, playing 3 years (-3.0)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Justin Thomas – $11,300
• Bryce DeChambeau – $11,100
• Rory McIlroy – $10,800
• Dustin Johnson – $10,400
• Collin Morikawa – $10,200
• Jon Rahm – $10,000
• Xander Schauffele – $9,700
• Webb Simpson – $9,500
• Jason Day – $9,300
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,200
• Brooks Koepka – $9.100 (Has withdrawn)
• Patrick Reed – $9,000

There are two important things to think about in making your picks, one takes a player that hits it far, which is a big advantage.  But the second thing is a must, of all the champions at TPC Boston there has never been a player win that was a bad putter. We have seen short hitters win at TPC Boston but never poor putter, so that is something to look for.  So right off the bat Justin Thomas at $11,300 fills two of our top items, hits it far and putts ok and has played good.  He has an added notch to his list as a past winner at TPC Boston so yes a good pick.  But the best of them all is Bryce DeChambeau who at $11,100 will probably be a popular pick.  With his newfound length since he last played here in 2018 when he won, he is even more powerful and should be even more dangerous in his quest to win again.  Rory McIlroy is $10,800 and many will brush away from him because he seems lost.  He’s not, just a bit out of rhythm and I can say this, it’s not going to take much to get him back and a trip or two around TPC Boston could help ease the pain of his out of sync golf, anything can happen this week.  Now for Collin Morikawa at $10,200 I have a problem.  Yes two weeks ago I was very high on him, now I am not just because this is not a course that he will putt well on and I would not touch him, these are not friendly greens for him.  Dustin Johnson at $10,400 will be a bit of the same, he has played the course a lot and can’t seem to find a way to win and with his great game you would think this would be easy for him and it’s not, so take a pass on Dustin this week.  Now Jon Rahm at $10,000 is a different story, I am all over this kid and think he will have a great week.  Remember this he is 8th in driving distance and 31st in strokes gained putting, a good combination for this course.  Also, like Xander Schauffele at $9,700 who is 13th in driving distance and 55th in strokes gained putting.  As for Webb Simpson at $9,500 he is a great choice not for hitting it long, but the past champion can putt he is 12th this year in strokes gained putting so yes we like him.  Jason Day at $9,300 is a hard choice, his stats are borderline, he is 61st in driving distance and 48th in putting, but since there are so many others around him with better stats, they are better choices.  Patrick Cantlay at $9,200 is a good choice, he hits it a long way and is 11th in driving distance and 57th in strokes gained putting.  The only problem with Cantlay he has been inconsistent since the break and seems to have that one off round per tournament.  Now talk about inconsistent and Brooks Koepka is top of the heap, he is $9,100 this week and frankly save yourself some nervous times and take a rest on him for a bit.  He is no longer a problem since he has withdrawn.  Patrick Reed at $9,000 is a player to think about, he is a great putter that has done really well in his last four starts but nobody seems to really care or look.  Remember this, he was T-6th in 2017, T-5th in 2016 and T-4th in 2015 so you may want to think about the defending champion this week.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,800 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Lot’s of really good choices, first many will think Daniel Berger at $8,900 but I say save the money.  He doesn’t hit it far enough, yes great putter but his game is not great outside of the great south, his best finish at TPC Boston is a T-12th in four starts so I say no.  Tony Finau at $8,800 is a good choice, hits it long and putts ok, remember this the last time he played at TPC Boston was T-4th in 2018 so yes take him.  Tiger Woods is $8,700 and he is a possibility.  Yes his putter was balky in San Francisco, but I think it will show improvement this week, plus he has a lot of history on this course.  Many will think that Paul Casey at $8,500 is a good choice especially when you see him finish 2nd in 2016 and T-4th in 2017 but I say his putting is terrible this year so take a pass on him.  But do think about Adam Scott at $8,400.  He was the first winner at TPC Boston in 2003 and has always done well on the course, he played well at the beginning of the year and think he will shine during the playoffs.  Tommy Fleetwood at $8,300 is appealing, he hasn’t played that great since the break and I am staying away from him probably for the length of the playoffs.  But I won’t stay away from Billy Horschel at $7,900 who was runner-up at the Wyndham last week and was T-2nd at TPC Boston in 2014.  Many will take Jordan Spieth at $7,800, I shake my head and say he really isn’t worth the trouble, yes he was 2nd at TPC Boston in 2017 but you be better off with Matthew Wolff at $7,800.  He is 6th in driving distance and 75th in Strokes Gained Putting and despite never playing at TPC Boston was great at TPC Harding Park finishing T-4th two weeks ago.  Now two gambles of folks at $7,600 are Kevin Kisner and Cameron Champ.  Both are the complete opposite, Kevin is 178th in driving while Cameron is 2nd, Kevin is 19th in putting while Champ is 109th.  Can the stats work for them, possibly?  I like that Kisner was T-19th at the PGA Championship and T-3rd at the Wyndham but his record is spotty at TPC Boston, his best was T-12th in four tries.  For Champ was T-10th at the PGA Championship.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Northern Trust

The pickings for bargains are slim this week, one that my eye sees is Denny McCarthy at $6,700, he is the best putter on tour and finished T-9th at Wyndham.  The rest of the pickings is not very good.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at TPC Boston:

The key stat for the winner:

• Now in past years, it was evident that this course was a long hitters haven.  In 2018 we had Bryson DeChambeau and the year before it was Justin Thomas, in 2016 Rory McIlroy and in 2015 we had Rickie Fowler win, all players that hit it long.  In 2014 & ’13 Chris Kirk and Henrik Stenson won, both who are in the middle of all driving distance stats in 2012, we had Rory McIlroy, in 2010 we had Charley Hoffman.  In 2008, it was Vijay Singh while in 2007, it was Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2006, all very long hitters  Still don’t rule out the short hitters, look at 2009 winner Steve Stricker, the same with Webb Simpson in 2011.  But he isn’t the only one, the 2005 champion Olin Browne is one of the shorter hitters on tour and 2003 runner-up Rocco Mediate is also short.  In the same breath, it’s safe to say that accuracy doesn’t pay on this course.  In its 16 years of being played, of the 191 players that have finished in the top ten of the tournament, only 48 have been in the top ten in driving accuracy.  One more key driving accuracy stat, of the 51 courses used on the PGA Tour it ranked 28th in driving accuracy in 2018 which meant that you can be wild on this course.  Or to put it another way, this is a bombers course.
• Looking at the stats from its 16-year history, look for those with sharp iron games to produce the best score.  Look for a smart player that doesn’t attack the holes but plays placement golf to win.  Of the 16 winners, three led the greens hit category (winner Henrik Stenson led in 2013, Vijay Singh in 2004 & Adam Scott in 2003) while the first eight of nine winners were in the top ten.  In 2018 Bryson DeChambeau was T-7th while in 2017 Justin Thomas was T-13th while in 2016 Rory McIlroy was T-18th in greens hit.
• The greens are 5,800 square feet, which is about average on the PGA Tour. They have a lot of undulation in them, and that could be one of the reasons why winners haven’t dominated the putting stats.  But the popular folklore on TPC Boston is, “you can hit it long or hit it short and win at TPC Boston, but if you don’t putt well, don’t expect to win at TPC Boston.”
• Looking for that one stat that jumps up and grabs you?  Par 4 average is the key here, TPC Boston is one of the easiest in par 4s.  Last year it was T-41st with a 3.99 average while in 2017 it’s par 4s played to a 4.02 average and ranked T-31st, in 2016 it was T-43rd with a 3.97 average on its par 4s so look for players that play well on par 4s.  Last year DeChambeau played the par 4s in 6 under, in 2017 Thomas was 14 under, in 2016 McIlroy was even par, in 2015 Rickie Fowler was 9 under, Chris Kirk was 6 under on the Par 4s, in 2013 Henrik Stenson was 14 under par.
• Interesting to note that Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas won the Dell Technologies the month after taking the PGA Championship.  It’s also interesting to note that Dell Technologies winners Woods, Singh and Adam Scott have also been runner-up here.  As for this year’s PGA Champion Collin Morikawa, you have to think he is chomping at the bit for Thursday’s opening round.
• Scrambling is a significant stat and one to look at.  Here is the rank of Dell Technologies Championship winners between 2007-2018.
•  Year    Winner    Scrambling (rank)
•  2018    Bryson DeChambeau  61.11% (T-44th)
•  2017    Justin Thomas    95.24% (1st)
•  2016    Rory McIlroy    63.16% (41st)
•  2015    Rickie Fowler    78.95% (1st)
•  2014    Chris Kirk    80.77% (4)
•  2013    Henrik Stenson    81.82% (T-6)
•  2012    Rory McIlroy    70.83% (10)
•  2011    Webb Simpson    76.00% (5)
•  2010    Charley Hoffman    82.35% (2)
•  2009    Steve Stricker    73.91% (10)
•  2008    Vijay Singh    76.92% (4)
•  2007    Phil Mickelson    86.36% (1)

Lastly, weather will be perfect for this week