BlogU.S. Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

We have covered all of the problems of the USGA and what I think about this year’s U.S. Open in the prelude to the U.S. Open.  I still have to wonder what the real interest is going to be with this year’s U.S. Open.  Because the USGA or maybe it’s the state of New York has placed limitations on the number of media that are attending, frankly news is scarce as it seems most of the stories out of Winged Foot are Doug Ferguson, AP stories.

Have to wonder if having limited media at an event won’t hurt the USGA even more.  The PGA of America also had a limited number of media at Harding Park but made a big effort to get writers connected to their virtual site.  It’s not the same with the USGA that does have a virtual site, but it was harder to find.  Now frankly it could be that papers are putting more effort into Football and Baseball and golf are on the back burners.  When the PGA Championship was played the first week of August the only thing going was Baseball and back then golf was still very much on people’s minds.  Also would like to know how this date was picked?  Was it just whatever the PGA Tour would give them, or did someone of the USGA thinks this was good?  To be fair to them, when this decision process was being played out in May, the virus was rampant throughout New York City so maybe that was an important part, being as far away from May as they could do it with the understanding that they needed at least 144 players in the field.  Still, this date is not going to help the USGA.

Major questions that will take a bit to sort out, but the USGA is probably kicking themselves for taking this date, which is so close to the start of the NFL and some of College Football.

So on the eve of another U.S. Open at Winged Foot the one thing that will be right is the weather.  Every day is going to be perfect with the exception of Friday that has a 40% chance of morning showers.  The wind each day is going to be around 10 mph which will cause the players to think about it but shouldn’t cause havoc and make the course any harder than it is.

So who will win is the million-dollar question.  I can unofficially say this, when the course is easy you seem to get more marquee names winning.  Just look at Congressional, Rory McIlroy won, Tiger won at Torrey, Jordan won at Chamber Bay.  Then on the hard courses like Bethpage in 2009, Lucas Glover, Pebble in 2010 Graeme McDowell, and Webb Simpson in 2012 at Olympic.  Again no rhyme or reason but you get what I mean.

One last thing about this week that shows more parity. This year there are 36 U.S. Open rookies.  Things started changing last year with 39 but we have to remember that in past U.S. Opens the field was 156, this year it’s 144. Still, this is a drastic change from 2018 when 50 of the 156 players were U.S. Open rookies.  This number seems remarkable until you realize it’s par for the U.S. Open.  In 2017 there were 52 U.S. Open rookies, in 2016 there were 51, in 2014 there were 53 rookies. All of these are extraordinary numbers.  In the history of the U.S. Open, the year with the most first-timers was 86 in 1919.  That was the first Open played after World War I and the field increased in size.  If you look at the most first-timers since World War II, it was 75 in 1948.

Looking at the U.S. Opens since 1970 the most first-timers were 53 in 1977, 1980, and 2011.  Why the change is a mystery but one thing is for sure, there are more players with a chance of winning this year.

Championship information:

The inaugural U.S. Open was slated for September of 1895. However, the Open, as well as the inaugural U.S. Amateur, were delayed due to a scheduling conflict with the more popular sporting event, America’s Cup yacht races. Finally, the first U.S. Open was played on Oct. 4, 1895, on a nine-hole course at the Newport Golf and Country Club in Newport, Rhode Island. The first U.S. Open was somewhat overshadowed by the first U.S. Amateur tournament, which was played concurrently at the Newport Golf and Country Club. Its little field consisted of just 10 professionals and one amateur. Horace Rawlins, the assistant at Newport Golf and Country Club, captured the first U.S. Open. The format for the tournament was 36 holes squeezed into one day, with four trips around the nine-hole course in Newport.

In 1898, the U.S. Open switched to a 72-hole format, two days of 36-holes. For the first few years, the field was routinely riddled with amateurs as well as British and Scottish professionals. The popularity of the event dwindled until Americans began to dominate, starting with John McDermott in 1911. The U.S. Open experienced a dramatic jump in popularity in 1913 when Francis Ouimet, a 20-year-old American amateur, defeated famed British professionals Harry Vardon and Ted Ray in a playoff. Popularity for the U.S. Open began to soar even higher in the early 1920s. In 1922, the U.S. Open sold tickets to the event for the first time. A year later, Bobby Jones, an amateur golfer from Georgia won his first of four U.S. Opens. By 1924, an enormous influx of applicants to compete in the U.S. Open forced the USGA to hold sectional qualifying to determine who would receive an entry into the field.

In 1926, the format for the tournament was again switched. Players would play 72 holes; 18 holes on each of the first two days, followed by 36 holes on the third and final day. The changes to the U.S. Open format were paralleled by an almost systematic phase-out of the amateur player. Though amateurs still compete annually, John Goodman was the last amateur to win the U.S. Open, taking the 1933 crown at the North Shore Country Club in Glenview, Illinois. Jack Nicklaus’s second-place finish at the 1960 U.S. Open is the best finish by an amateur since Goodman’s victory in 1933.

The U.S. Open saw relatively few changes between 1935 and 1954. In 1954, the course was roped off from tee to green for the first time, as well as broadcast on national television. Arnold Palmer’s historic comeback victory in 1960 further boosted the tournament’s popularity. But it was the 1962 U.S. Open, in which Jack Nicklaus defeated Arnold Palmer in a Monday playoff, that would catapult “America’s Championship” to the forefront of the golf world.

Over the next 18 years, from 1962 to 1980, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer combined to win four U.S. Opens. Fans flocked to the U.S. Open in droves to see the budding rivalry. In 1965, to accommodate the growing fan base, the U.S. Open switched from the three-day, 72-hole format to the current, four-day, 72-hole format.

In 1971, Lee Trevino’s victory at the U.S. Open was the catalyst as he went on to play, arguably, the three most significant weeks of golf. After winning the U.S. Open, Trevino went on to capture the Canadian Open crown, followed by the British Open crown. A feat that to this day has not been matched. Trevino, as well as the already well-established Nicklaus and Palmer, created a trio that further launched the event into the American limelight. In 1977, ABC began live coverage of the final two rounds of U.S. Open play. By 1982, upstart cable channel ESPN was broadcasting the Thursday and Friday rounds.

In 1994, the U.S. Open at Oakmont was the venue for Ernie Els’ first victory in America. Els and Loren Roberts both shot 74, while Colin Montgomerie shot a 78. Els claimed the title by defeating Loren Roberts on the second sudden-death playoff hole.  Els and a slew of other foreign champions paved the way for the first qualifying tournaments held outside the United States.

But for the masses, nothing will compare to Tiger Woods’ victory in 2000 at Pebble Beach.  First of all, it was the 100th U.S. Open. Secondly, it was held on one of the great courses in the world that comprised the beauty of an oceanside course that stunned the viewers and fans but on a tough course in which wind played an important factor. It was also perfect timing for Tiger Woods to win his first Open title in a dominating way. At 12 under, he finished 15 strokes ahead of Ernie Els and Miguel Angel Jimenez to become the first double-digit winner relative to par.  The win brought the U.S. Open into a different focus as it began its second decade of play.

Course information:

• Winged Foot Golf Club (West Course)
• Mamaroneck, N.Y.
• 7,477 yards
• Par will be 35 – 35  = 70

Based on the course setup for the championship, the Course Rating is 75.7. Its Slope Rating is 141.

Major Championships held at Winged Foot

• 1929 U.S. Open (West): Robert T. Jones Jr. def. Al Espinosa, 294 (72-69) – 294 (84-80)
• 1940 U.S. Amateur (West): Richard D. Chapman def. W.B. McCullough, 11 and 9
• 1949 Walker Cup Match (West): USA def. Great Britain and Ireland, 10-2
• 1957 U.S. Women’s Open (East): Betsy Rawls by six shots over Patty Berg (299-305)
• 1959 U.S. Open (West): Billy Casper by one shot over Bob Rosburg (282-283)
• 1972 U.S. Women’s Open (East): Susie Maxwell Berning by one shot over Kathy Ahern, Pam Barnett, Judy Rankin (299-300)
• 1974 U.S. Open (West): Hale Irwin by two shots over Forrest Fezler (287-289)
• 1980 U.S. Senior Open (East): Roberto De Vicenzo by four shots over William C. Campbell (285-289)
• 1984 U.S. Open (West): Fuzzy Zoeller def. Greg Norman, 276 (67) – 276 (75)
• 1997 PGA Championship (West): Davis Love shot 269 to beat Justin Leonard by five shots
• 2004 U.S. Amateur (West): Ryan Moore def. Luke List, 2 up
• 2006 U.S. Open (West): Geoff Ogilvy by one shot over Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson, Colin Montgomerie (285- 286)
• 2016 U.S. Amateur Four-Ball (East): Benjamin Baxter and Andrew Buchanan def. Brandon Cigna and Ben Warnquist, 3 and 2

Players Who Competed in 2006 U.S. Open (16): Paul Casey (15), Sergio Garcia (MC), Lucas Glover (MC), Scott Hend (T-32), Billy Horschel (MC), Charles Howell III (T-37), Zach Johnson (MC), Matt Kuchar (MC), Graeme McDowell (T-48), Phil Mickelson (T-2), Ian Poulter (T-12), Rory Sabbatini (MC), Adam Scott (T-21), Henrik Stenson (T-26), Steve Stricker (T-6), Tiger Woods (MC).

Players Who Competed in 1997 PGA Championship (3): Phil Mickelson (T-29), Steve Stricker (Cut), Tiger Woods (T-29).

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at Winged Foot.

The U.S. Open is going back to Winged Foot, a course that held the Open in 1929, 1959, 1974, 1984, and then 2006. The course also held the PGA Championship in 1997. The course also has held the 1940 and 2004 U.S. Amateur.

This is the 120th edition of this event, the six-time the Winged Foot is hosting a U.S. Open. The last time the U.S. Open was at Winged Foot was in 2006 and won by Geoff Ogilvy by a shot over Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson, and Colin Montgomerie. Ogilvy won with a winning score of 5 over par. In the five times Winged Foot has held the U.S. Open, there have been 750 entries, and only two players have broken par for 72 holes, Fuzzy Zoeller and Greg Norman at 4 under par. In the 2115 rounds played in the U.S. Open, only 77 have broken par. Of the 750 entries, the average score is 76.30, so we can say that Winged Foot is a challenging course. Look for that trend to continue as this year’s Open.
The course will play 213 longer than it played in the 2006 U.S. Open. The most significant change will be flipping the 5th hole from a 515-yard par 5 to a 502-yard par 4. Then the 9th hole, which was a 514-yard par 4 in 2006, will be a 565-yard, par 5.
But the charm of the course is the par 3s and par 4s. Of the par 3s, three are over 200 yards, with the 3rd the longest at 243. The shortest is the 7th at 162.
Of its 12 par 4s, only two, the 6th and the 11th, will be under 400 yards. Of the rest, nine of them play over 450 yards. Of course, the fairways will be narrow, holes 6, 11, and 15. The shortest of the par 4s will be between 22 and 28 yards wide. The others will be a bit wider as the USGA will have three different rough levels to penalize shots further offline. With the heavy rains the last two weeks, the rough will be long and thick. Look for players to have a tough time playing out into the fairway in some cases.
Despite the rain, look for the greens to be bone dry. They are 6,600 square feet with a lot of undulation. They will be wicked fast. The greens are a combination of Poa annua (80%) and bentgrass (20%). They have been redone since 2006, and the restoration recaptured their original size and contours. The person who will win at Winged Foot is the one that makes the most putts from 4 to 10 feet. Since there is a lot of poa annua, the greens will be tricky to read, making it hard to make putts. Another vital part of the game will be lag putting. Players will have many putts in the 20 to 50-foot range, and with all the contours, it’s hard to cozy that long putt close to the hole. So the winner this week will be a good putter. As a major championship course is the opposite of PGA Championship Harding Park, poor putters could do well on those greens.
Still can’t stress the importance of finding the fairway off the tee and making sure to get the ball on the green in regulation.

Since we have very little data to base our conclusions for our four categories, we will take an educated guess on which stats will be needed to succeed this week at Winged Foot for the U.S. Open. Like any tough U.S. Open course, the importance is keeping the ball in the fairway and hit as many greens as possible. If you miss the fairway just a little and have a good lie in the first cut of rough, getting it on the green is possible. But from the second stage to third stage of rough the going is hard. Those with poor lies in the rough it’s best to gauge it back into the fairway and try to scramble for a par. But what gets players in trouble is trying to muscle it onto the green and most of the time they advance the ball back into the rough by the green, making the next shot impossible and then bringing the possibility of double bogey in play. So keeping it on the short grass is the key for a good week. There will be more bogeys than birdies, in 2006 U.S. Open only 344 birdies were made while there were 1,148 bogeys and 170 double bogies.

The things to watch for, Accuracy off the tee will be the key to winning at Winged Foot, not only in driving accuracy but precious iron play into the greens. In 2006 Winged Foot ranked the 4th hardest course to keep it in the fairway as the players hit 50.30% of the fairways. In hitting greens, Winged Foot was the hardest course in Greens in Regulation which makes sense Winged Foot demands great shotmaker and when you miss a green you will have to show the skill of being able to handle both sand play and pitch shots from gnarly rough around the green. In 2006 during the U.S. Open the course was 1st in Scrambling for the year as players got it up and down just 40.05% of the time If that isn’t enough, a poor putter won’t cut it on this course. The greens have a lot of undulations and mounds, so good lag putting is required along with the nerves to be able to make most of those nasty five and six-footers. When Winged Foot held the 2006 U.S. Open it played to a 74.97 scoring average which was the hardest course on tour in that year, makes sense when you think each player averaged five-shot over par for a round. I don’t expect that to happen, still, an average of around three shots per round is what I figure.

So this is based on the most important stats for the Winged Foot, based on what I feel is important, and using data from all the players in this week’s field with stats from 2020. Of course, weather plays a factor in scoring, and with the course being a tad wet from all of the rain the last couple of weeks I can see it drying out as the sun has hit it lately and the temperature has been high. I see no rain and limited wind, still the USGA has a knack of drying out greens and making them rock hard.
The most important item is keeping it in the fairway, without that you can’t score so Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee is our most important category. Next up is Greens in Regulation, you have to hit greens to score well on the course. Now our third category is Scrambling just because all players will miss greens and it’s important to get it up and down for par when a green is missed. Our last category is strokes Gained Putting. This is a great way in determining how a player does overall on the greens and since putting is a key to winning at Winged Foot I don’t see any stat better to end this stat look with.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: This determines how many strokes are saved or wasted in driving off the tee, figuring hitting the fairway and hitting it far.

*Greens in Regulation: Number of greens hit from the fairway or rough.

*Scrambling: This stat figures out who gets it up and down the most when green is missed.

*Strokes Gained Putting: This is a great way in determining how a player does overall on the greens by determining the length of the putt and calculating the percentage the player should make the putt and coming up with stroke figure.

Of the 144 players in the field, 83 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2020:

One other keynote.  This was done on Monday afternoon and I updated the field based on the withdrawals of Brooks Koepka, Sam Horsfield and Scottie Scheffler.  There were replaced by  Paul Waring (has no stats), Rory Sabbatini, and Branden Grace.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to show all 83 players with 2020 stats for the U.S. Open.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Dustin Johnson – $11,500
• Jon Rahm – $11,000
• Justin Thomas – $10,700
• Rory McIlroy – $10,500
• Xander Schauffele – $10,100
• Collin Morikawa – $10,000
• Bryce DeChambeau – $9,900
• Webb Simpson – $9,700
• Patrick Cantlay – $9,400
• Daniel Berger – $9,200
• Tony Finau – $9,100
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,000

Powerful field with a lot of guys to choose from.  Now the difference with this week is the course.  Winged Foot is the hardest course they have played in a while.  But players got to play the toughest course of 2020 at the BMW Championship.  Olympia Fields played the same way that Winged Foot is going to play, a long course with demanding driving to keep the ball in the fairway, with tour greens to hit and putt.  So look seriously how a player did three weeks ago to see how they will play this week.  Of course, Dustin Johnson is the favorite at $11,500.  All I can say is that despite the high price, Johnson is going to play well this week.  He is showing that he is hard to beat, in his last four starts he went runner-up, win, runner-up, and win.  Johnson is also a player that when he plays well, it just gets better and it will take an act of God for him not to play well.  We saw Johnson play like this in 2017 and it ended at the Masters when he fell downstairs in his rental house and wasn’t able to play in that Masters.  I can only bet that Johnson is staying in a house this week with no stairs.  Still Johnson plays well on tough courses, he won his only major at Oakmont in 2016 and that course is as hard as Winged Foot.  So we can bet the farm that Johnson will be in contention this week.  As of Jon Rahm at $11,00 I say not risk the money.  It’s not that he isn’t playing well, I just don’t think Rahm will be able to handle this course.  He struggles to play well on course with rough, even though his two wins are at Memorial and Olympia Fields which had rough.  Still, Rahm does well in short, three weeks spurts and I think his spurt is behind him and I am betting he won’t play well.  I think Justin Thomas at $10,700 will do well despite struggling in past U.S. Opens.  Now I am all over Xander Schauffele at $10,100.  He has a great record in the U.S. Open finishing T-3rd last year, T-6th in 2018, and T-5th in 2017.  He played well at East Lake, another demanding course so I can see good things from Schauffele.  Now I don’t see good things our of Collin Morikawa at $10,000 and Bryce DeChambeau at $9,900.  Winged Foot has some really hard greens to putt on and I don’t think Morikawa can handle them.  As for DeChambeau, sorry but his long ball game just won’t cut it when half of his drive is in the rough.  We saw this play out at the PGA Championship.  Webb Simpson at $9,700 is a tough call.  Yes, he is a past winner of this championship and yes has had a great year.  But I was seriously disappointed with his play at the Tour Championship and have to wonder if he can regain the form he had a month ago.  So be careful with him.  As for Patrick Cantlay at $9,400, I think his game will be good for Winged Foot and he will play well.  I just don’t think he can win, yes a top-ten and possibly a Top-five but no victory.  Daniel Berger at $9,400 I have a problem with, the facts are he plays great in the south and not as good up north but he did finish T-3rd at the Northern Trust, so maybe.  I like Tony Finau at $9,100, yes he missed the cut last year at Pebble but was 5th in 2018.  Think he will be good for a top-ten, but no win.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,000 is another who’s tee-to-green game is the best, but he can’t putt these kinds of greens.  He too could be a good top-ten, but nothing more.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Tommy Fleetwood at $8,900 will be a popular pick, but I am staying away from him.  Hasn’t played great since the break until last week with his T-3rd in Portugal.  But the travel to New York will be hard and I just don’t think he will do great.  Now Jason Day at $8,800 is one that could be good, normally if his back is not a problem he would contend on this type of course.  He missed the cut at the Northern Trust and finished 64th at Olympia Fields which doesn’t help him, still think he spent the last two weeks working on his game and he will be good.  Adam Scott at $8,700 is a great sleeper pick, think he will do well on this course, again he has the chomps from tee to green, but can he putt will be the question.  Watch out for Patrick Reed at $8,500.  He does great on these old-style, Tillinghast courses and this is a course he will do well on.  Also high on Matthew Fitzpatrick at $8,000, he plays tough courses well and was T-12th last year at Pebble and in 2018 at Shinnecock.

Some of the “bargains” this week at the U.S. Open

Hard to find “bargains” at the U.S. Open but here is a couple.  First I like Sungjae Im at $7,500, think his game is coming around and he can play well on this course.  I know he is George of the Jungle and hasn’t played well but Phil Mickelson at $7,300 will catch some folks, yes this is probably going to be his last U.S. Open unless he wins again.  Matt Kuchar at $7,200 can surprise us, again a great record on old-style courses.  Lee Westwood at $7,000 could come alive and Chez Reavie at $6,900 is one to watch.  Have to also think that Sebastian Munoz at $6,600 is a bargain, he played well at BMW Championship

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the U.S. Open:

• Since 1960 only nine players have made the U.S. Open their first PGA Tour victory; Jack Nicklaus, 1962; Lee Trevino, 1968; Orville Moody, 1969; Jerry Pate, 1976; Ernie Els, 1993, Retief Goosen, 2001, Michael Campbell in 2005, Angel Cabrera in 2007 and Graeme McDowell in 2010.  But take a look at that list. Jack Nicklaus and Jerry Pate were U.S. Amateur champions, Retief Goosen, and Ernie Els had almost a dozen wins around the world before they won the U.S. Open and Lee Trevino became one of the greatest players in the world.  Michael Campbell, Angel Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell won a lot around the world, especially in Europe.  Dustin Johnson won a lot of the PGA Tour. So of these first-time winners, you have Orville Moody, who went on to win the Senior Open but still wasn’t that great of a player.  The point here is looking for a big name to win the U.S. Open.
• So could that open the door for another first-time winner?  Probably not, of the 36 first-timers, I don’t see one that could win, lots of good players and prospects for the future but not today.
• Ten years ago the 41-year streak of not having a European Tour player winner was finally broken by Graeme McDowell.  Since then the floodgates have opened as other Europeans as Rory McIlroy won in 2011, Justin Rose in 2013, and Martin Kaymer in 2014.  With the course being so hard, don’t be surprised if another European wins this year.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

So what will it take to win at Winged Foot?

• The major key is being great with the driver, the combination of driving it straight and long.  Success is hitting off of fairway grass, if your in the rough your asking for trouble.
• If you are in the rough and your ball is deep, forget the ego trip, grab a wedge and gauge it back into the fairway.  Those that gamble from the rough bring double bogey or worst into play.
• Not only is it important to put your next shot from the fairway on, but also make sure to put it on the right side of the hole.  Green has lots of undulation and if your on the wrong side, the putt is near impossible.  Keeping it on the right side makes life a lot easier.
• For this week par is the players’ best friend.  Winged Foot is a long, tedious battle in which boredom can spell disaster, so make sure to play for par and even though Birdies are hard to come by, you can still make them.
• The players that manage the weather will have the advantage.  It will start out on Thursday to be perfect, in the low 80s with very little rain.  But a front moves in on Friday with temperatures in the mid-60s the rest of the way.  Good news, not much in the way of wind.
• Experience and getting to know the course is very important.  Caddies always are important for players, but this week will be more important in helping players judge not only the shots into the green but helping with breaks on the greens.
• Another important thing to remember about Winged Foot is having a lot of patience.  Each week these players compete in an environment in which you make a birdie every fourth hole or a total of five to six times a round. There is only one easy par 5 at Winged Foot (The 9th), still, it will be hard to make birdies and the players will just have to be happy with a bunch of pars.

Hitting to the greens, how tough?

A lot will depend on if the pin is tucked away close to a bunker or hard to get close.  It’s always important to remember the undulations of the greens and players will have to take that into account when preparing for a shot.  A player has to be smart; there is a lot of danger around the greens, so you have to make sure a shot is to the right part of the fairway to give you proper access.  The greens will also be hard (unless rain makes them too soft), so lots of shots won’t hold the greens and roll off into a hard situation.  Sometimes getting it up and down from rough off the grass will be hard, the same with greenside bunkers, they won’t be easy to get up and down from.  I think that a person that scrambles well will be the winner this week.

Is there any rhyme or reason for a player winning the U.S. Open?

No.

In the past 30 years, it’s been won by grinders like Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Jim Furyk, Retief Goosen, Angel Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell, who may not look pretty but knows how to place shots in the right spots.  There have also been superstars like Tiger Woods, who were expected to win.  It’s been won by great tour players like Tom Kite and Corey Pavin, who capped off their PGA Tour careers with their first win in a major.  It’s been won by up and coming stars like South African’s Ernie Els, Martin Kaymer, Retief Goosen, and Geoff Ogilvy, who won it in 2006.

Who can forget the stars that many thought were past their prime, like Payne Stewart and Hale Irwin?  It’s also been won by tour grinders like Lee Janzen and Webb Simpson. Last but not least the stray qualifier like Steve Jones, who surprised the golfing world with his victory in 1996, plus Michael Campbell in 2005, who was contemplating not going to U.S. Open qualifying the night before.  How about 2009 winner Lucas Glover, you show me a person that had a winning Lucas Glover ticket, and I will show you my winning Irish sweepstake ticket.  In past Opens, we said that it was a wide-open field.  But I feel that only the best will contend this week.