BlogCorales Preview and Picks

The Buzz

So with the U.S. Open played, the fall season will “chill” for a few weeks.  The Ryder Cup was supposed to be played this week, but smart minds realizing that no fans would make for a dull Ryder Cup postponed the matches to next year. So that left the Corales Puntacana Resort Championship on its own and it’s going to gain full status.  So that means full FedExCup points like a normal event plus the winner will now get an invite to play in the Masters when it’s played in April (Not the November Masters).

Now normally on paper this is a serious event because the second tier of PGA Tour players is on their own, able to make a splash in an event with very little marquee names.  The event is held on the island of Dominican Republic and it’s a place that people go to relax, get lots of sun, go to the beach, and play a little golf.  The course is on the ocean and gets a lot of wind, so that is what makes it challenging.  In looking at the forecast for the week, it will be 88 each day with wind of 10 mph coming off the ocean, so it will bring on challenges.  After this week the tour moves to Mississippi for the Sanderson Farm and then Las Vegas for the Shriners.  So for the next three weeks, there will be a lot of opportunities for those that you don’t hear much of to make a name for themselves and go into a more elite level with a win.

Things you need to know about the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship

The Corales Puntacana Championship started out as a Korn Ferry Tour event in 2016 and ’17.  In 2018 it changed to a PGA Tour event that would be played in March opposite of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Championship.  With the advent of COVID-19, the event was postponed but was resurrected to be played this week opposite of the Ryder Cup.  With the postponement of the Ryder Cup, this event became top-dog and despite being a week that the elite takes time off, is great for the lower-tier players to make a mark for themselves. This will be the third year as a PGA Tour event.

The course is at the eastern end of the Dominican Republic in the town of Punta Cana.  The resort has 45 holes, 27 holes built by P.B. Dye, and 18 designed by Tom Fazio.  The tournament is held at the Tom Fazio, Corales Golf Club.

This event gives second-tier players who didn’t qualify for the WGC-Dell Match Play Championship opportunities for playing a tournament this week but also they can gain FedEx Cup points.  The good news is that they receive the same exemptions on the PGA Tour as other events.  This is a perfect way for a bottom-tier player getting himself full status with a win.  Unfortunately, the winner gets just about every award given to a regular winner except one crucial invite, to the Masters.  Augusta won’t extend an invite to the winner in Dominican Republic this week.  Another snub, the new Ryder Cup list won’t include money earned this year.

Course information:

• Corales Golf Club
• Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
• 7,670 yards     Par 36-36–72
• The course is at the eastern end of the Dominican Republic in the town of Punta Cana.  The resort has 45 holes, 27 holes built by P.B. Dye, and 18 designed by Tom Fazio.  The tournament is held on the Tom Fazio designed the course, which opened in 2010.
• The course plays along the cliffs, bays, and coves of the Caribbean Sea, with six oceanside holes, and the inland holes dotted with lakes and quarries. The course features ever-changing elevations, strategic bunkering, and large, elevated greens.
• On the front nine water comes into play on just the 390-yard, 3rd hole.  The nine also has plenty of other hazards in the form of huge waste bunkers.  The nine ends with a 175-yard par-three, in which the green sits in a rather exposed position atop of a rocky headland.
• The back nine has a dramatic finish.  The last three holes play toward or along the Bay of Corales and are called the Devil’s Elbow. The 501-yard 18th wraps around the water, enticing players to bite off as much of a carry as they dare on the tee shot, but it was the 214-yard par-3 17th that catches players’ attention. It plays along the coast to a narrow green guarded by bunkers on both sides.
• The course has a unique grass on it, Paspalum supreme which is a lot like Bermuda but can tolerate salt and takes a low quality of water to survive.  The course is very tough for the average player while it’s very manageable for the pros that will play it this week.  Since the course has opened, it’s gotten the reputation as one of the best courses in the Caribbean.
• Now the course is very private, some of its founding members are Mikhail Baryshnikov, Julio Iglesias, and President Bill Clinton.
• The course played to a 71.07 scoring average in 2019 (last time it was played) and was the 34th hardest course.  What makes the course unique is that ten of the 18 holes play over par.  The last three holes all play over par, at the par 4 16th hole played to a 4.022 average.  The par 3 17th, played to a 3.066 average and the par 4 18th played to a 4.015 average.  Now in past years, the full array of Shotlink stats have not been done, so in looking to find what to look for, we have to look at regular stats.  The one stat that jumps out is driving accuracy, in 2019 it was the 44th hardest of 49 courses, so that means that players don’t have to worry about hitting it long and going into rough.  So this will be a bombers course.
• in 2019 the course ranked 23rd in Greens in Regulation, so hitting greens is not very difficult.  Around the green sand is a problem as there are close to 50 bunkers around the greens.  Now the course is a resort course, but it’s still a tough test for the players.

DraftKings Tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Will Zalatoris- $10,900
• Corey Conners – $10,600
• Mackenzie Hughes – $10,300
• Sam Burns – $10,100
• Adam Long – $9,900
• Emiliano Grillo – $9,800
• Charles Howell III – $9,700
• Denny McCarthy – $9,600
• Henrik Stenson – $9,500
• Thomas Detry – $9,400
• Sepp Straka – $9,300
• Kristoffer Ventura – $9,200
• Pat Perez – $9,100
• Branden Grace – $9,000

Will Zalatoris is $10,900 and it makes sense.  He was T-6th at the U.S. Open and the week before T-2nd at the Korn Ferry Evan Scholars Invitational.  He won a Korn Ferry event in July at the TPC Colorado and despite this player being on the Korn Ferry, he is good enough to be a regular on the PGA Tour.  He has never played on this course, but to give us a hint that he can, he was T-4th in the Bahamas Great Exuma Classic and T-23rd at the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic so yes he can play by the sea and withstand the wind.  Corey Conners is at $10,600 and frankly, I just don’t see it. He has played at Corales three times and his best was T-13th in 2018.  He missed the cut last year and I don’t see anything in his 2020 performance to say he is a guy to pick.  Mackenzie Hughes at $10,300 is worth the money, yes he missed the cut at Winged Foot but he played great in the three FedExCup playoff events and was T-2nd in this event last year, yes a good pick.  Sam Burns at $10,300 is another good pick, he was T-12th last time he played in this event, he was T-7th at Safeway so playing well now.  He hits it long and putts well, yes not good in scrambling but if he hits it good enough he will do well.  Adam Long is $9,900 and could do well, hasn’t played in the PGA Tour Corales, but was T-8th in 2017 when it was a Korn Ferry event.  Since the break he played well, he was 2nd at the 3M Open which has to give him a boost.  Was T-13th last week at Winged Foot so he is worth the money. Emiliano Grillo at $9,800 is a toss-up type of player.  Played  Chorales once in 2018 and was T-50th, he played well for three rounds at Safeway before a 73 in the final round.  He was T-3rd at the 3M and T-9th at the Barracuda so I can go in either direction.  Charles Howell III at $9,700 is not my choice. yes, he finished T-3rd in the 3M Open but hasn’t been as good in 2020.  I am taking a pass on Howell.  Denny McCarthy at $9,600 is a great choice, the best putter on the PGA Tour, he was 4th at Corales in 2018 and T-26th in 2019.  Henrik Stenson at $9,500 is an interesting case.  He has played a very limited schedule, missing the cut at the U.S. Open and PGA Championship.  Has never played at Corales, but the last time he played a course like this was in December when he won the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas on a course similar to this week with the same kind of grass.  Still, I won’t pick him.  Thomas Detry at $9,400 is worth a look at, never played at Corales but has played a lot in the last two months in Europe, was 2nd twice and T-8th.  Sepp Straka at $9,300 is one to look at, he was T-26th at Corales in 2019 and T-14th at Safeway.  Kristoffer Ventura at $9,200 has never played at Corales but was T-7th at Safeway and has been very steady since after the break.  Pat Perez at $9,100 is another rookie at Corales and despite having an ankle and foot injury in August, seems to have gotten over it.  He was T-9th at Safeway, but what I like about is he won at Mayakoba in 2017 and that course is a lot like this one, on the ocean with the same type of grass.  Branden Grace at $9,000 and is another rookie in this event.  I will say it’s an easy choice saying no to him as he only has finished 72 holes once in his last eight starts.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

First up is Brian Stuard at $8,300, he missed the cut at Corales in 2018 but I like that he was T-3rd at Safeway.   He also has played well at the Sony Open, RSM Classic, and Mayakoba all courses that have the same conditions as Corales.  Now here is a shot in the dark, but look closely at Joohyung Kim at $8,200.  He is only 18 years old and plays in Asia and Korea, now he has done some great things over there.  He played for the first time at the PGA Championship and missed the cut, but he also played at Safeway and was T-67th.  Think he will do very well this week, he is a player of the future.  Brice Garnett is at $7,900 but you may want to think about him.  He won at  Corals in 18 and was T-39th the following year.  Was T-67th at Safeway.  Normally wouldn’t think of him but the fact that he won on this course makes him a person to think about.  Matt Jones at $7,900 was T-28th in 2018 and T-18th in 2019, hasn’t played great but this course is good for his game, and look for a super week from him.  James Hahn at $7,700 is not going to be on many people’s lists.  He has never played at Corales, and in his last 11 starts has only made checks four times.  But I like that he was T-13th at the Genesis and T-9th at Safeway, he won at Wells Fargo in 2016 after entering the tournament missing 8 cuts.  So he can do anything. Keith Mitchell is at $7,600 and I like that he was 2nd at this event in 2018.  He has been very inconsistent over the last year but was T-5th at Palmer.  He is a shot in the dark but does make a fair amount of birdies, ranked T-95th in birdie average for the year.

*Some of the “bargains” this week?

Doug Ghim at $7,300 is a player to watch, he had a great amateur career and trying to make it on the PGA Tour.  Was T-14th at Safeway and he does make a lot of cuts, watch him.  J.J. Spaun at $7,000 has played once at Corales and missed the cut in 2016, but he was T-9th at Safeway and was ok after the break.  Michael Gligic is at $6,500 and he is a Canadian that not many know about.  He has never played at Corales, but he is a good longshot pick.  I like that after going through a stretch of making just two cuts in 12 starts, his game has improved starting at 3M when he finished T-26th, was T-25th at Barracuda, T-59th at Wyndham, 67th at Lincoln Land and 14th at Safeway.  Again at $6,500 you can’t go wrong.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Corrales Puntacan Resort Championship:

The key stat for the winner:

So what vital stats is essential at Corales Golf Club?  Players that hit it long will do better; the course is a bombers paradise.  Because of the high winds that buffer the course, hitting greens is hard.

Here are some more key stats to look for this week:

There is no rhyme or reason for winning this event.  It’s what you can call a throwaway event in which the top-stars in golf take this week off.  So there are no real favorites because there are no real marquee players that you know of. Yes, the field does have two major champions playing (Henrik Stenson and Graeme McDowell) but after that is your Mackenzie Hughes, Charles Howell III, and Adam Long as your key guys  But done of them will win because you do need the firepower to overpower the course.

Will a newcomer win this week?  Probably.  It’s more about a player being in the right place at the right time.