BlogSanderson Farms Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So the tour has another full field event for the bottom tier.  Last week turned out to be good as Hudson Swafford won by a shot.  But we did see some players that could win in the coming months, Tyler McCumber, Mackenzie Hughes, Nate Lashley and Adam Long.  Of course these events are hard to watch with not many marquee names, but for many these events are about showcasing the future of the PGA Tour.

Here are some tournament and course information:

This event has been played in Mississippi since 1968.  In the beginning it was an unofficial event and became an official event on the PGA Tour in 1986.  In it’s first year and until 1993, it played opposite to the Masters.  It was called the Deposit Guaranty and was played at Hattisburg C.C. in Hattiesburg, Miss.  Not only did the date change to July and opposite the British Open, in 1994 the event moved to Madison, Miss and the Annandale Country Club.  It again was moved in the schedule in 1999 when it was opposite the Tour Championship, the Ryder Cup and the Presidents Cup.  In 2011 it switched back to July and the same week as the British Open with Sanderson Farms taking over in 2013.  Not only did the date change but the course was different for the first time in 20 years as it moved to The Country Club of Jackson.

The course wasn’t the whole reason for the change, Unlike Annandale the country club offers more than 120,000 square feet of roofed infrastructure which means more money will be donated to charity.  The course is also terrific and has gone through a lot of changes since the summer.  The biggest change is the fairways have been narrowed and a second cut added with the rough being allowed to grow in.

The course is a John Fought design that features “Golden Age” architectural features with pushed up greens and closely mown run off areas. If the course stays dry, the greens will be treacherous and could make things interesting.

The site had an interesting history because it was better know in Mississippi not for golf but were in 1966 it was the site of a famous raid that caused liquor to be legalization in the state.  So the Country Club of Jackson will this week be remembered as the site that changed the last dry state in the United States instead of for the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Sanderson Farms Championship:

This event is always up for grabs, not many players have any history at Country Club of Jackson so it’s always hard to pick this event.  But we learned a lot the last six years it’s been played there, first that hitting greens is important. C.C. of Jackson ranked 29th hardest last year as the course is getting tougher to hit greens.  In 2020 it was the 31st hardest, in 2019 it ranked 29th, in 2018 it was 24th hardest while it was 37th hardest of the 50 courses in 2017, 46th in 2016 and 38th in 2015 so players tended to hit lot’s of greens. Of the 34 that finished in the top-ten the first three years at Country Club of Jackson, 19 of them were in the top-ten in greens hit with last years winner Sebastian Munoz finishing T-36th.  In 2019 Cameron Champ finished T-65th  In 2018 Ryan Armour ranked 3rd while 2017 winner Cody Gribble finishing T-29th in Greens hit.  But in 2016, winner Peter Malnati finished T-4th in greens hit while runner-up William McGirt finished T-4th and in 2015 winner Nick Taylor finished T-3rd while runnerup Jason Bohn finished T-1st. So the point is, you have to hit lot’s of greens.

On the face of it we’re looking at a pretty long golf course, with the par-five fifth hole able to stretch to 612 yards before the difficult-looking sixth at close to 500 (482). Holes 14 and 15 would look to offer up birdie opportunities before a tough closing stretch, on the Dick Wilson design course in which the finishing hole is a 505 yard, par 4.  Oh, for the record there is no let-up on the par-4s, only one the 16th is under 400 yards so maybe a power hitter is the player to look for.  The par 5s played tough last year as they were the 8th hardest par 5s on the PGA Tour with a 4.74 scoring average.

This is also one of those courses that you have to hit it long and straight.  Last year it ranked 24th in driving distance but in 2016 it was 1st and in 2015 it was 10th.  But in looking at our five winners at C.C. of Jackson most of them were short hitters, so this is not a bombers course.

The weather is going to be mixed for the players this week with possible rain on Thursday and then clear skies after that.  One problem, it’s going to be very cool as temperatures will be in the mid-50s every day.  So the ball won’t fly and could play harder. Winds will be tolerable not getting over 10 mph.

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Scottie Scheffler – $11,400
• Sungjae Im – $10,500
• Will Zalatoris – $10,200
• Byeong Hun An – $10,000
• Sebastian Munoz – $9,900
• Sam Burns – $9,800
• Lucas Glover – $10,200
• Doc Redman – $9,700
• Zach Johnson – $9,600
• Adam Long – $9,500
• Brian Harman – $9,400
• Dylan Frittelli – $9,300
• Corey Conners – $9,200
• Chez Reavie – $9,100
• Luke List – $9,000

Just like last week because of the nature of the field it will be very hard to pick a winner.  Last week’s winner Hudson Swafford and Machenzie Hughes aren’t in the field.  Then they have Scottie Scheffler at $11,400 which is normally ok since he was playing well,  but tested positive for COVID-19 and was force to withdraw from the U.S. Open.  Because of this and not really knowing how sick he was or if he was even sick say it’s best to pass on him.  Sungjae Im at $10,200 is a good pick based on him finishing 2nd last year in this event.  He played great going into the break, but came back and struggled.  Still he was T-9th at Wyndham, was 11th at the Tour Championship and 22nd at the U.S. Open so he is worth the price.  Will Zalatoris at $10,200 is also a good pick, his game has been great and shouldn’t worry about him playing this event for the first time, he will like and play well at C.C. of Jackson.  Byeong Hun An at $10,000 is another good pick, he was 3rd last year and despite missing the cut at the U.S. Open should be ok.  Sebastian Munoz at $9,900 is another good pick, not only his he the defending champion but he has played well of late with a T-8th at both the BMW and the Tour Championship.  He was T-59th at Winged Foot.  Sam Burns at $9,800 is high and based on his T-3rd in the Sanderson Farms in 2019.  But last year was T-45th and he has finished T-7th at Safeway and T-28th at Corales so some will take him but I won’t be one of them.  Lucas Glover at $10,200 is a player I won’t take just because he is good from tee to green, but struggles with his putter.  Doc Redman at $9,700 is priced high, manly because he was T-3rd at Safeway and Wyndham.  He can do well this week, but again $9,700 is high.  But if he is your top-pick, and you avoid using Scheffler, Im, Hun An , Munoz and Burns that may work.  Zach Johnson at $9,600 really doesn’t do much for me, Adam Long at $9,500 is a good possibility due to his good play last week at Corales and his T-23rd finish last year in Mississippi.  Brian Harman at $9,400 is also a good pick do to his T-14th last year at the Sanderson and has been solid since the coronavirus break.  Dylan Frittelli at $9,300 is another good choice now since his was T-6th here last year and mixed results in 2020.  Corey Conners at $9,200 doesn’t do much for me, yes he was T-2nd at this event two years ago but has scrambled of late, pass on him.  Chez Reavie at $9,100 I wait to see if he will play better and he doesn’t.  Yes he was T-3rd at Safeway but other than that doesn’t show me much.  Last is Luke List at $9,000.  I keep on thinking he will play better and he doesn’t.  Yes he was T-8th last week in Domincan Republic, and was T-2nd in this event in 2017 but hasn’t done much more.

*Players in that $7,600 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

Bud Cauley at $8,700 is a good buy.  Was 4th in this event in 2012 and 2011 but both were on another course.  His only C.C. of Jackson start he missed the cut in 2016.  But he was T-14th at the Safeway and was solid in 2020.  Pat Perez at $8,500 is good because he was T-9th at Safeway and T-21st at Corales.  Now a good buy is Carlos Ortiz at $8,300.  That is for his two starts at Sanderson was T-4th last year and T-3rd in 2019.  For the year he is ok, at Safeway was T-46th, but he just seems to like this course.  Cameron Davies is a good choice at $8,100, he was T-28th last year but he has played solidly since his T-12th at the 3M Open.  Also going to go again with Denny McCarthy at $7,900.  Was T-7th in this event in 2019, only T-46th last week at Dominican Republic but he is a great putter and will come through.  Stewart Cink at $7,600 is someone to think about.  He surprised a lot of people with the Safeway win, he was T-28th in this event last year.

Some of the “bargains” this week at Southern Farms

First guy to look at is Brian Stuard at $7,500.  He was T-28th in this event last year and T-4th in 2018.  Was T-3rd at Safeway and T-33rd last week at Corales.  How can you go wrong with last week’s winner Hudson Swafford at $7,300?  He was T-28th last time he played at Sanderson in 2019.