TPC Summerlin Key Fantasy Stats

Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

October 8th – 11th, 2020

TPC Summerlin

Las Vegas, NV

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,255

Purse: $7 million

with $1,260,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Kevin Na

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Summerlin based on data from last year’s Shriners Hospital for Children and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020.
TPC Summerlin has a long history on the PGA Tour. It was the first part of the Shriners rota in 1992 just after the course opened when the tournament was 90 holes and utilized three courses. Starting in 1995, it was the home course of the event and became the tournament’s sole venue in 2008. The course has always been well respected, and for a desert course is one of the hardest. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The players love the course, many since they can score low on a typical day without wind.

Last year with calm conditions, the course played easily at a 68.88 average, which ranked 39th on the PGA Tour. Only two courses played easier, and both were at the American Express, so TPC Summerlin played as the easiest course on the PGA Tour in 2020. The course played to a 69.13 average in the previous year, which ranked 43rd on the PGA Tour. But the year before in 2018, in very high winds up to 25 mph on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, the course played a lot tougher than previous years with a 71.54 scoring average, a half over par. It was the 10th hardest course on the PGA Tour, showing how weather can affect things. In 2017 Summerlin played to a 69.62 average and was the 40th most demanding course on tour. So with that, it changed the minds of many who thought the course was a bomber’s delight, it isn’t. If you look at the winners of this event since 2008, only two bombers won the event, Bryson DeChambeau won in 2019 and Smylie Kaufman in 2016. But in looking at all of the other winners, champions like Rod Pampling, Ben Martin, Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, and Marc Turnesa have always been part of the bottom third of drivers, so they don’t hit it far. Last year’s winner Kevin Na was 25th at the Shriners in driving distance, but for the year was 170th, one of the shortest hitters on tour. In 2019 before Bryson DeChambeau made his stunning transformation in becoming the longest hitter on tour, he was 30th for the week and T-34th over 2019 while Patrick Cantlay in 2018 was T-8th in driving distance and 33rd for the year. So what kind of players wins at TPC Summerlin?

Of the 13 champions since 2007, six of them were in the top-five of greens in regulation, and only two winners, Patrick Cantlay in 2017 was T-17th, and Kevin Na were both higher than 13th (Na was 40th when he won in 2011). Another essential item is putting. Six of the winners were in the top-10 in putting average with only three, not in the top-20 (Na was 1st last year). The one stat that seems important is that of the previous 13 winners, eight of them were in double digits in under par figures on the par 4s. 2010 winner Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under, in 2017 Rod Pampling was 13 under, 2018 champion Patrick Cantlay was 9 under on the par 4s, Bryson DeChambeau was 12 under in 2019 while Kevin Na was 10 under last year.

In looking at the course averages from last year, the one thing that sticks out is that TPC Summerlin was the 35th hardest course to drive it in the fairway in calm conditions, but in windy conditions in 2018, it was the 8th hardest course to drive. In 2017 it was 7th, the hardest in looking at the history of the course. In 2016 it ranked 11th, and in 2015 it was 17th, so hitting it straight is essential. In looking at our champions since 2009, all of them except Kevin Na finished in the top-20 with last year’s winner Kevin Na, ranking T-25th in driving accuracy. Some other keys to playing well are making lots of birdies; last year, Kevin Na had 26 birdies and ranked 3rd. In 2019 DeChambeau had 22 birdies, while in 2018, Cantlay had 20 birdies, which were tied for the most of the tournament and an average of one in every 3 and a half holes played.

One essential item is the weather. This year, every day will be mostly perfect in Las Vegas with lots of sun and temperatures in the mid-80s. Last year, the wind was very low, averaging about 6 mph each day, but this year it will be 9 mph on Thursday and Friday, climb to 12 mph on Saturday and be at 11 mph on Sunday. So look for the scores to go up a bit over last year.

So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving hit straight and far makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained off-the-tee because driving is the key to playing well. Yes, for Na last year, it wasn’t that important as he was ranked 54th, but in 2019 Bryson DeChambeau was 6th, and in 2018 winner Patrick Cantlay was 1st. Our second important category is proximity to the hole. The course ranked T-12th last year, and 40th in greens hit last year. Again last year’s winner, Kevin Na, was terrible, ranking 60th, but in 2019 DeChambeau was 10th. Also, wind plays a significant factor in this stat. In 2018 in the wind, it was 5th in Proximity to Hole and 28th in Greens in Regulation, which means many greens will be hit. Next up, we pick not only scrambling, but sand saves because if the greens are missed, you have to still make par. Last year the field averaged 14th in scrambling, and with 51 greenside bunkers, the field was 27th in sand save percentage, so our third category is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green. Again Na wasn’t great in this stat ranked 54th, but in 2019 DeChambeau was 7th. Our last category is par breakers, the combination of birdies and eagles made during the round. Making lots of birdies and eagles is always essential, especially on a desert course like TPC Summerlin. Last year Na was 1st in Par Breakers while DeChambeau was T-8th in 2019, and Patrick Cantlay was T-2nd in 2018.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green, so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length of a shot going into the green leaves a player.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Par Breakers: Combination of birdies and eagles to get a percentage of holes played under par

132 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from 2021:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.