BlogShriners Hospitals Preview and Picks

The Buzz

Off to Sin City:

The oldest running fall event, Shriners Hospitals for Children has all of the glamour of Las Vegas on a course that a lot of players like to play on. For some, this will be a fun week with a little bit of golf mixed in with the fast-paced action of Las Vegas.

Founded in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic, the event has undergone six name changes in the event’s history. Frys.Com became the title sponsor for the event in 2006, replacing its former title, the Michelin Championship at Las Vegas. 2007 was the final year of Fry’s involvement, and in 2008 Justin Timberlake took on the duties of becoming the tournament presenter with Shriners Hospitals for Children sponsoring the event. Timberlake is no longer associated with the tournament.

At the tournament’s inception, the tournament managers prided themselves on running a tournament that stood out amongst the slew of annual PGA events. It was the first event to offer a total purse of $1 million; at the trophy presentation, the winner used to receive his trophy with two showgirls by his side. Though these ideas help separate the event from others, the most drastic deviation from the norm is the tournament’s format, which in a way, “borrowed” the format at the Bob Hope Open.

In its inception, the tournament was played over five rounds at between three and four courses. However, in 2003, when the original tournament founders abdicated control to another volunteer organization, the event was immediately switched to the more conventional four-round format. Over the years, courses have been dropped, and for the 12th straight year, it’s only played on the TPC Summerlin.

One thing about this event, it’s always lovely winning an event, but for some of its past champions, they never got back to the winner’s circle again on the PGA Tour. Look at the 18 past winners since 2000, only eleven Bryson DeChambeau (2019), Patrick Cantlay (2018), Webb Simpson (2014), Ryan Moore (2012), Kevin Na (2011), Jonathan Byrd (2010), Martin Laird (2009), George McNeill (2007), Troy Matteson (2006), Stuart Appleby (2003) and Bob Estes (2001) won again on the PGA Tour. The others, Rod Pampling (2017), Smylie Kaufman (2016), Ben Martin (2015), Marc Turnesa (2008), Wes Short Jr. (2005), Andre Stolz (2004), Phil Tataurangi (2002), and Billy Andrade (2000) never made it back to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour, and some of them don’t even play anymore on the PGA Tour.

So why are so many players playing?

You have to play in the fall now. It’s not a “junk” section. We are talking about 12 official events in 13 weeks. That’s a fifth of the 50 events on the PGA Tour. Between the start of the season and the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January, there will be $90 million in prize money given away, which isn’t peanuts.

On top of that, postponements due to COVID-19 two majors have been moved to the fall so that you will have more players in events. You can’t sit at home and let all of this money and FedExCup points go away without dipping into it. So that is why you are seeing more and more marquee players now playing. It’s a small fortune they are playing for these days. To think just 24 years ago, in 1996, the year Tiger Woods joined the PGA Tour, Tom Lehman won the money list with $1,780,159. In four starts in the 2020 season, Bryson DeChambeau has won $2,250,00, and next up, Matthew Wolff has won $1,350,000. Fifty years ago, Frank Beard won the money title with $164,707, about the same amount that Russell Knox, who is 45th on the money list, has won in 2 starts this year. It took Ben Hogan 16 years on the PGA Tour before he won his first $100,000. Going a step further, Gene Sarazen collected money on the PGA Tour between 1920 and 1976, and this may seem hard to believe, but in his 56 years of playing, he won 38 times, seven of them majors, and only won $77,787. Kevin Chappell is 85th on the money list with winnings of $74,184 in just three starts, oh how times have changed.

One last thing this week is the 24th anniversary of Tiger Woods’s first win on the PGA Tour. In 1996 he won the Shriners by beating Davis Love III in a playoff. For the victory, he won $297,000, the same amount that Keegan Bradley and Henrik Norlander won for finishing T-4th at the Sanderson Farms Championship last week.

Course information:

TPC Summerlin was designed by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1992. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The tees, fairways, and rough all comprise of 419 Bermuda Grass, cut at 3/8″, 3/8″, and 2″ respectively. The greens consist of a 1/8″ cut of A-1/A-4 Creeping Bent Grass. This short cut mixed with the always speedy Bent Grass explains the rather Stimpmeter reading of 11 feet. As for hazards, the course features 99 sand bunkers (with 51 around the greens), and water comes into play on four holes.

The signature hole at TPC Summerlin is the short 341-yard par-four 15th hole. The sizeable elevated green is reachable from the tee; however, numerous bunkers guard the green, making the play risky, but possibly very rewarding. As for accolades, Golf Digest rated this as the fourth “Best in State” course for 1995-96, and the fifth-best for 1997-98. Also, GolfWeek awarded it 98th in the category of “America’s 100 Best Modern Courses” for 1997.

Last year was the 12th time that Summerlin was the only course used, and they made a significant change in 2009, switching par to 71 by making the third hole a long par 4 at 473 yards. In addition to this change, trees were added along the fairways’ right side on Nos. 9 and 16, both par 5s. The rough also was grown longer than in years past, and for holes 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, and 16, the fairways are going to be between 3 and 5 yards narrower than in 2008. All of these changed to try and make the course play a bit tougher. In 2008 Summerlin played to an average of 69.070, while in 2009, with par reduced, it played just about the same, 69.152. In 2010 it played to a 68.956 average, while in 2011, it was 68.883, 2012 was 69.713, and the 40th toughest course at of 49. In 2014 the course played to a 69.546 average and was the 43rd hardest course out of 48. In 2015 the course played to a 69.659 average and was the 42nd hardest course out of the 52 played. In 2016 the course played to a 70.080 and was the 34th hardest course out of 50. In 2017 the course played to a 69.622 and was the 40th hardest course out of 49 courses that were played in 2017. In 2018 due to high winds, it had a course rating of 71.54, making it the 10th hardest course on tour. In 2019 with no winds, the course ranking was 69.13, and it was the 38th hardest course on tour. Last year the weather was again very calm, and the course average was 68.86, and it was the 39th hardest as only two courses played easier, and they were courses that only held one round from the players (They were part of the American Express)

Lots of birdies are made on this course, last year, 2,010 were made along with 63 eagles. The finish is demanding with the par 3 17th hole played the 3rd hardest hole at 3.098, while the 18th hole was the 12th hardest at 3.930.

Let’s take a look at vital stats that are important for those playing at TPC Summerlin.

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Summerlin based on data from last year’s Shriners Hospital for Children and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2020.
TPC Summerlin has a long history on the PGA Tour. It was the first part of the Shriners rota in 1992 just after the course opened when the tournament was 90 holes and utilized three courses. Starting in 1995, it was the home course of the event and became the tournament’s sole venue in 2008. The course has always been well respected, and for a desert course is one of the hardest. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The players love the course, many since they can score low on a typical day without wind.

Last year with calm conditions, the course played easily at a 68.88 average, which ranked 39th on the PGA Tour. Only two courses played easier, and both were at the American Express, so TPC Summerlin played as the easiest course on the PGA Tour in 2020. The course played to a 69.13 average in the previous year, which ranked 43rd on the PGA Tour. But the year before in 2018, in very high winds up to 25 mph on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, the course played a lot tougher than previous years with a 71.54 scoring average, a half over par. It was the 10th hardest course on the PGA Tour, showing how weather can affect things. In 2017 Summerlin played to a 69.62 average and was the 40th most demanding course on tour. So with that, it changed the minds of many who thought the course was a bomber’s delight, it isn’t. If you look at the winners of this event since 2008, only two bombers won the event, Bryson DeChambeau won in 2019 and Smylie Kaufman in 2016. But in looking at all of the other winners, champions like Rod Pampling, Ben Martin, Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, and Marc Turnesa have always been part of the bottom third of drivers, so they don’t hit it far. Last year’s winner Kevin Na was 25th at the Shriners in driving distance, but for the year was 170th, one of the shortest hitters on tour. In 2019 before Bryson DeChambeau made his stunning transformation in becoming the longest hitter on tour, he was 30th for the week and T-34th over 2019 while Patrick Cantlay in 2018 was T-8th in driving distance and 33rd for the year. So what kind of players wins at TPC Summerlin?

Of the 13 champions since 2007, six of them were in the top-five of greens in regulation, and only two winners, Patrick Cantlay in 2017 was T-17th, and Kevin Na were both higher than 13th (Na was 40th when he won in 2011). Another essential item is putting. Six of the winners were in the top-10 in putting average with only three, not in the top-20 (Na was 1st last year). The one stat that seems important is that of the previous 13 winners, eight of them were in double digits in under par figures on the par 4s. 2010 winner Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under, in 2017 Rod Pampling was 13 under, 2018 champion Patrick Cantlay was 9 under on the par 4s, Bryson DeChambeau was 12 under in 2019 while Kevin Na was 10 under last year.

In looking at the course averages from last year, the one thing that sticks out is that TPC Summerlin was the 35th hardest course to drive it in the fairway in calm conditions, but in windy conditions in 2018, it was the 8th hardest course to drive. In 2017 it was 7th, the hardest in looking at the history of the course. In 2016 it ranked 11th, and in 2015 it was 17th, so hitting it straight is essential. In looking at our champions since 2009, all of them except Kevin Na finished in the top-20 with last year’s winner Kevin Na, ranking T-25th in driving accuracy. Some other keys to playing well are making lots of birdies; last year, Kevin Na had 26 birdies and ranked 3rd. In 2019 DeChambeau had 22 birdies, while in 2018, Cantlay had 20 birdies, which were tied for the most of the tournament and an average of one in every 3 and a half holes played.

One essential item is the weather. This year, every day will be mostly perfect in Las Vegas with lots of sun and temperatures in the mid-80s. Last year, the wind was very low, averaging about 6 mph each day, but this year it will be 9 mph on Thursday and Friday, climb to 12 mph on Saturday and be at 11 mph on Sunday. So look for the scores to go up a bit over last year.

So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving hit straight and far makes a difference. So we pick Strokes Gained off-the-tee because driving is the key to playing well. Yes, for Na last year, it wasn’t that important as he was ranked 54th, but in 2019 Bryson DeChambeau was 6th, and in 2018 winner Patrick Cantlay was 1st. Our second important category is proximity to the hole. The course ranked T-12th last year, and 40th in greens hit last year. Again last year’s winner, Kevin Na, was terrible, ranking 60th, but in 2019 DeChambeau was 10th. Also, wind plays a significant factor in this stat. In 2018 in the wind, it was 5th in Proximity to Hole and 28th in Greens in Regulation, which means many greens will be hit. Next up, we pick not only scrambling, but sand saves because if the greens are missed, you have to still make par. Last year the field averaged 14th in scrambling, and with 51 greenside bunkers, the field was 27th in sand save percentage, so our third category is Strokes Gained Around-the-Green. Again Na wasn’t great in this stat ranked 54th, but in 2019 DeChambeau was 7th. Our last category is par breakers, the combination of birdies and eagles made during the round. Making lots of birdies and eagles is always essential, especially on a desert course like TPC Summerlin. Last year Na was 1st in Par Breakers while DeChambeau was T-8th in 2019, and Patrick Cantlay was T-2nd in 2018.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green, so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Proximity to Hole: The average length of a shot going into the green leaves a player.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Par Breakers: Combination of birdies and eagles to get a percentage of holes played under par

132 of the 144 players from this year’s field with stats from 2021:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to the other 122 players with stats at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.

Of the 144 in the field, 126 have played at least once at TPC Summerlin between 2015 and 2020 for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open:

• Webb Simpson is -63 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Bryson DeChambeau is -57 under in 16 rounds, playing 4 years
• Patrick Cantlay is -52 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Scott Piercy is -52 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Martin Laird is -47 under in 22 rounds, playing 6 years
• Nick Taylor is -46 under in 24 rounds, playing 6 years
• Adam Hadwin is -44 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Russell Henley is -39 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Ryan Palmer is -38 under in 12 rounds, playing 3 years
• Harris English is -36 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Kevin Na is -36 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years
• Kevin Tway is -36 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Chesson Hadley is -35 under in 18 rounds, playing 5 years
• Patton Kizzire is -35 under in 14 rounds, playing 4 years
• Pat Perez is -34 under in 12 rounds, playing 4 years

*Here are the ones with the best under par totals averaging it per years played (2 or more starts)

• Patrick Cantlay is -52 under, playing 3 years (-17.3)
• Hideki Matsuyama is -29 under, playing 2 years (-14.5)
• Bryson DeChambeau is -57 under, playing 4 years (-14.3)
• Rickie Fowler is -26 under, playing 2 years (-13.0)
• Ryan Palmer is -38 under, playing 3 years (-12.7)
• Adam Hadwin is -44 under, playing 4 years (-11.0)
• Beau Hossler is -33 under, playing 3 years (-11.0)
• Luke List is -33 under, playing 3 years (-11.0)
• Si Woo Kim is -32 under, playing 3 years (-10.7)
• Webb Simpson is -63 under, playing 6 years (-10.5)
• Brian Harman is -31 under, playing 3 years (-10.3)
• Russell Henley is -39 under, playing 4 years (-9.8)
• Sam Ryder is -29 under, playing 3 years (-9.7)
• Harris English is -36 under, playing 4 years (-9.0)
• Kevin Na is -36 under, playing 4 years (-9.0)
• Cameron Smith is -27 under, playing 3 years (-9.0)
• Joaquin Niemann is -18 under, playing 2 years (-9.0)
• Patton Kizzire is -35 under, playing 4 years (-8.8)
• Scott Piercy is -52 under, playing 6 years (-8.7)
• Pat Perez is -34 under, playing 4 years (-8.5)
• Stewart Cink is -25 under, playing 3 years (-8.3)

Historical ParBreakers

Here is a look at those playing this week and who has made the most eagles and birdies:

So it makes sense that the top players on this list are guys that will make lot’s of points this week

DraftKings tips

*Here are the guys that cost the most on DraftKings this week:

• Bryce DeChambeau – $11,800
• Webb Simpson – $11,000
• Patrick Cantlay- $10,400
• Hideki Matsuyama – $9,900
• Collin Morikawa – $9,800
• Harris English – $9,700
• Matthew Wolff – $9,600
• Jason Day – $9,500
• Scottie Scheffler – $9,400
• Sungjae Im – $9,300
• Paul Casey – $9,200
• Sergio Garcia – $9,100
• Rickie Fowler – $9,000

What a great field, the best that Las Vegas has gotten in years.  After two events with weak fields, we will see strong fields this week, next and the week after.  The big thing will be the first event back for the U.S. Open champion as Bryce DeChambeau at $11,800 will get a lot of attention.  He has won on this course and he is a much different player in just the last three months.  What will be interesting is to see if DeChambeau continues his great play and wins this week.  I think that he will have a good week and will be tough to beat.  So expect a lot of support for DeChambeau this week.  Webb Simpson at $11,000 is another good pick coming to a course that he won on in 2014 and playing well at this course since.  He has been a factor in the last four events he has played in and I can see a great week out of him.  But my big pick for the week is Patrick Cantlay at $10,400.  He has played in this event three times and finished 2nd, 2nd and winning it in 2018.  He has not played well since the break, but I see that all changing this week on a course that he seems to own.  Hideki Matsuyama at $9,900 is also a good choice, his game fits on this course and I am surprised that in his two starts he has only finished T-16th and T-10th.  The last we saw of Matsuyama was at the U.S. Open were he shot a final round 78 to finish T-17th, still I think he will be good this week.  Collin Morikawa at $9,800 is a hard choice, he was T-42nd in this event last year and has struggled since winning the PGA Championship, he missed the cut at Winged Foot.  Harris English at $9,700 is a tough choice, yes he has played well since the break but is too much money for his results in the Shriners.  He did finished T-4th in 2017 but hasn’t playing that well since at TPC Summerlin.  Matthew Wolff at $9,600 is another good choice, he was T-18th last year but should play well on this course.  His last start was a runner-up at the U.S. Open so look for that to carry over to this week.  Now Jason Day at $9,500 is a tough buy.  Again we have no idea on his back, the last time he played was ok, but he hasn’t played well since the PGA Championship.  Day last played in this event in 2012 and was 4th, the course is good for him but we have to wonder if things with his back are ok.  Scottie Scheffler at $9,400 is a not for me, he didn’t impress me last week and the course isn’t for him.  Sungjae Im is $9,300 and frankly a big mystery.  He played so well until the virus hit and hasn’t been able to find that form.  So he is a no for me.  Paul Casey at $9,200 is also a no, his putter his still very cold and despite his game from tee to green being sharp his putter drags him down.  Sergio Garcia at $9,100 is another question mark, yes he won last week but I think that was more of a fluke.  I don’t mean that he didn’t deserve to win, but since the Masters victory in 2017 he only won in September or October.  In his 24 career victories on the PGA Tour and European Tour he has won four times in September and August, seven times in October and once in November.  Now I am passing on Sergio as much as I am passing on Rickie Fowler at $9,000.

*Players in that $7,500 to $8,900 price range, which ones are worth the money?:

I like Louis Oosthuizen at $8,800 who is playing in Las Vegas for the first time but he was 3rd at the U.S. Open and been solid on the PGA Tour since the break.  Defending champion Kevin Na at $8,600 is a big mystery.  After winning in 2011 he finished T-22nd, missed the cut in 2014, withdrew in 2015 and then came back to finish T-2nd in 2016.  But in 2017 and ’19 he missed the cut before winning last year.  So your not going to find anymore of a Jekyll and Hyde person than him.  He has played well since the break so I say he will be ok this week.  Cameron Davis at $8,200 is worth a look, he was T-6th last week in Mississippi and was T-36th at Safeway.  He was T-28th at TPC Summerlin in 2019 and worth the cost.  Joaquin Niemann at $8,100 is another person to look at, he missed the cut in Vegas last year but was T-10th the year before.  Keegan Bradley at $8,000 mostly on his good play last week in Mississippi.  Also like Charley Hoffman at $7,800 I think he is close to winning again, he was T-6th last week and T-14th in Dominican Republic.

*Some of the “bargains” this week at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

I like Ryan Palmer at $7,400 he has been very consistent since the break and this is a course he can do well on.  Lanto Griffin is also a good choice at $7,300 he is also a steady player and one that makes a lot of birdies.  The best bargain of the day goes to Stewart Cink at $7,200 he has only won at Safeway and finished T-12th last week, need I say anything else.  Kristoffer Ventura is $7,100 and again has the potential to finish high.  Also like Maverick McNealy at $6,900 and after finishing 6th at Sanderson Farms how could anyone price Tyler McCumber at $6,500?

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open:

The key stat for the winner:

Making lots of birdies is important.  The average for the last 16 winners since the course reverted to a 72 hole affair is is 22 under and the winners average making 24 birdies per event or six per round.  So the secret is to make a lot of birdies.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• With fairways that are wide open, fairways with lots of roll, dominating the par 5s has been a key.  It’s also interesting to note that in the last 15 years the winners have averaged 10 under par on the par 4s.  Last year Kevin Na was 10 under the year before Bryson DeChambeau was 12 under the best of anyone in the field.  In 2018 Patrick Cantlay was 1 over the only time a winner has been over par but remember it was very windy.  In 2017 Rod Pampling was 13 under on the par 4s, in 2016 Smylie Kaufman was 6 under on the par 4s while Ben Martin was 9 under in 2015 and in 2014 Webb Simpson was 12 under the same as Ryan Moore was in 2012. Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under in 2010 while the least lowest was 6 under by George McNeill in 2007.
• Being an accurate driver, a long driver or a person that hits a lot of greens doesn’t give you a big advantage.  Scrambling is very important it ranked 6th on the PGA Tour last year.  If there ever was a tournament that favors the newcomer, this is it.
• Most of the time the weather is wonderful, it should be that way this year, with very little wind the first two days but getting breezy over the weekend..
• You have to realize were your at, in Las Vegas “lady luck” is very important in winning, a lot of players that you would never think would win have found the “luck factor” in victory.